Watching the Mets play both the Brewers and the Dodgers this week got me thinking about
* Quantity and Quality of 'Home Grown Talent'
I thought it might be interesting to investigate how the quantity and quality of the Mets home grown talent on the major league squad compares with that of some of their peer group, in particular, the Yankees, Braves, Dodgers and Brewers. I use the term 'peer group' loosely more as an expression of aspiration than performance.
Including all International Free Agents as well as draft choices and undrafted free agents (and recognizing that the numbers can be fluid given the extent of options and a team's willingness to employ them strategically), here are the numbers (relatively accurate as of July 26, 2026 when I put this post together).
Quantity
Dodgers: 13 -- though two of their IFA signings Yamomoto and Sasaki spent no time in the minors with Dodger affiliates
Brewers: 12
Atlanta: 8
Yankees: 6
Mets: 9
The Mets fall into the middle of the pack. (I am counting Mauricio who has made the team for parts of this season for periods longer than a cup of coffee and is invariably counted among the four Baby Mets along with Alvarez, Baty and Vientos.
Quality
There are two standards of quality -- comparative and objective; and there are two sub criteria of comparative judgments of quality. The first is how the players on the overall list of nearly 50 compare with one another; the second is how the players on each team compare with one another on that team and with the rest of the players making up their team's major league roster.
I have shied away from providing a ranking of the 50 players on the total list for a number of reasons and any such list is bound to be controversial. I just don't know how helpful such a list will be because the very best players on it, Judge and Acuna have played for a longer period of time than anyone from the Brewers or Mets list of home grown talent.
I do make a few broad claims about overall quality that strike me as uncontroversial and illuminating to some degree.
Of the Dodgers 13 home grown talents, four stand out: Smith, Pages, Yamomoto, Sasaki
Of the Yankees group of 6, only two stand out: Judge, Schlictler, while two others have shown brief flashes but not much else: Dominguez, Volpe
Of the Brewers group of 12 all of whom are very early in their careers, four are already standouts -: Chourio, Turang, Mitchell, and Misiorowski -- while Frelich is no slouch and two -- Lara and Pratt are expected to be future all-stars.
Of the Braves group of 8 Acuna, Jr is arguably among the top 5 players in the National League, while Riley, Albies, and Harris II, Baldwin, Strider and Schwellenbach have been all-stars, and Jarvis looks like he will stick at SS.
Of the Mets group of 9, only McLean has been around barely long enough to have established himself as a potential All-Star, Ewing and Benge show sufficient promise to ink them in to the outfield lineup card for years to come. Scott and Thornton are likely to join McLean as stalwarts of a very good starting rotation, and Alvarez remains promising though no one believes that he is the ultimate solution for the Mets behind the plate. The Baby Mets feature two soon to be lost causes -- Baty and Vientos -- and one potentially valuable but puzzling piece -- Mauricio -- in addition to Alvarez.
Some interesting inferences to draw from these lists
What the lists tell us about the roster construction of each of these teams?
Most striking fact: 3/4 of Atlanta infield is home grown and of high end overall quality, They have their catcher and 2/3 of their outfield of the future -- from home grown talent alone. Great overall distribution of talent at key positions. They are weakened this year by injuries to 2 of their 3 best pitchers, both of whom are on this list. What extraordinary balance with a genuine home grown super star in Acuna (injuries notwithstanding). If both Schwellenbach and Strider return from injury and to perform, they will have produced a remarkable outcome that supercedes what even the Brewers have managed.
The Dodgers have surprisingly few home grown starters, but have an ACE in Yamomoto, a comer in Sasaki, the best catcher in the NL in Smith and a rising All Star in Pages. They have done the most in complementary players through Free Agency, Ohtani, Tucker, Freeman, and have a less well balanced overall lineup than the Braves, but a good distribution of vets and youth. But their Vets are getting older. On the other hand, they have a superb farm system, so they are in a good position to fill from three different sources: trades, FA, minor leagues. They have the most optionality and the depth of their minor league system provides enormous flexibility.
Milwaukee is amazing in that their outfield is all home grown and the new blood has forced Yellich to largely DH role. They have the most exciting SP in baseball . All of their position players are very young and exceedingly athletic. They have filled gaps with trades very rarely (Yellich) and continue to develop talent in the minors by trading top pitchers a year before free agency (Peralta, Williams and Burnes). They are not players in higher end of the FA market and this is exactly what keeps them from deep playoff runs. This is the one area in which they are hurt by not having a big pocketbook.
In all honesty, the Yankee farm system has not been productive. Schlictler and Judge are one offs separated by several years. The farm system has been largely barren in between. Yankees have been forced to play in FA and trade market and have spent a lot in FA, but are not time aligned at all largely because they are always thinking in terms of win now, but are vulnerable to injuries and they are no longer the biggest wallet in the market as Toronto, Boston join the Mets and Dodgers as spending competitors.
The Mets have the youngest cohort of high baseline talent among their home grown talent. They also have the greatest variance of performance among their home grown talent. This is very revealing of the overall lack of real quality plaers on the major league roster. The drop off between the top and the next rung down (Baty and Vientos) is horrendous. But this variance in talent is endemic throughout the roster of position players and starting pitchers.
Consider the position players first. The Mets have two perennial All Stars one of whom is likely a Hall of Famer in Lindor and Soto. They have one better than very good player not under their control in Bichette and two exceedingly good back-ups in Torrens and Taylor. Then they fall off a cliff talent wise. They are getting nothing from Semien Polanco, and Robert and, beyond that, they have a bunch of low average major leaguers like Wagaman and Young.
Now consider the starters. Right now the top performing starters are McLean, Scott and Thornton. Holmes was performing as well as anyone but is on the IL. Senga has been a disaster and Peralta has not been much better. Manaea has approached modest competence and Peterson never did. The variance has been mind boggling.
On the other hand, the bullpen has been filled with very good veterans who have done their job consistently and at a high level. .Just imagine how good the team would have been if the veteran position players and starters would have performed at a comparable level.!!!!
Few, if any, of the relievers will be around after the August 3 deadline.
What can we infer about the Mets Farm System?
Three things I think. First, while the system has produced a good number of major league players, they have not produced a star -- either a position player or pitcher. Frankly, I think it will be some time before they produce a star position player. Maybe McLean will prove to be a star.
Second, the variance between the best of what the Mets farm has produced at the major league level and the rest of those that have made it to the majors is too wide. In fact, on a better constructed team, Baty and Vientos wouldn't be major leaguers. They certainly wouldn't be on any of the Mets 'peer group' with which we are comparing them with.
Third, there isn't enough talent in the minors overall.
IMO, the Mets FO shares my view. They do not believer there is another outfielder at AA or AAA aside from maybe Morabito capable of contributing at the major league level.. Nor do they believe that there are any sure thing infielders at either AA or AAA: that the best bet is Reimer if he recovers his form; and that after that you are looking at players in Brooklyn and St. Lucie for real major league potential.
I think they see what I do on the pitching side as well. In my view, only Santucci and MAYBE Tong are on the same plane as Scott. My view is that Santucci is closer in skill set to McLean. I think they agree that Thornton is a very good back of the rotation starter. I don't think they believe in Wenninger.
Saying the Quiet Thing Outloud
If this team intends to compete going forward, they have eliminate the players that are just taking up space on the roster and in my accounting that includes: Semien, Polanco, Robert, Baty, Vientos, Peralta, Senga. The drop off in performance that these vets have produced is almost incomprehensible.
Step One in the plan to compete in 2027: The Mets should get what they can in trades for all of these players and eat the contracts they cannot offload.
Being as bad as they have been can be very costly! Own it.
Step Two: Replace some of these players with FA signings:
At which positions?
1B, 2B, two SP and a number of relievers.
What about adding prospect talent throughout the minors?
None of the group of Semien, Senga, Polanco and Robert, Vientos and Baty can bring back high level prospects. Nor can Raley or Brazoban among the relievers.
Peralta, Holmes, among the starters, and Weaver among the relievers can. Perhaps Mintor can as well. We shall see. The low minors have talent among infielders, pitchers and catchers. There is a shortage of outfield talent however, and no team can ever have enough pitchers.
The trick will be competing next year and getting time aligned in the minors. In this regard, the Brewers should be the model. They have produced top tier home grown talent at all positions including pitching, infield and outfield. Amazing really. With their organizational decision making and Cohen's pocketbook they would be betting favorites for a spot in the World Series every year!
Hey, wait a minute, isn't that what we supposedly have?
Apparently, not so much
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