Reese Kaplan -- How Good or Bad Is the 2027 Starting Pitching?

So the GM Meetings have come and gone  While everyone expected an accelerated array of free agent signings and trades being made with the early December lockout just weeks away, not a whole lot in that regard happened.  Yes, the Reds lost their closer Emilio Pagan in free agency to the Detroit Tigers and the Braves signed their own former reliever Evan Phillips in free agency from the Dodgers.  The Mets, of course, did nothing. 

With 17 days left before the end of November the holes in the roster still exist and the 2026 free fall into the cellar hasn’t seen any corrective actions taken.  Yesterday we discussed finding a left handed reliever.  Today let’s consider the prospect of who will be in the 2027 starting rotation with and without the addition of Tarik Skubal. 

As it stands right now before that free agent negotiation comes to a conclusion the Mets five man army of starting pitchers is OK but not great.  The top three — Nolan McLean, Christian Scott and Zac Thornton should be better than average though Thornton’s limited track record in the majors makes him a bit of an uncertainty for projection.

After that it gets a bit murkier.  They could go with starters Sean Manaea and Kodai Senga if they wanted to use current roster options in that role. They could insert less likely people like Justin Hagenman, Tobias Myers, Tylor Megill and other patchwork names to occupy the 4th and 5th spots.  None of them are that good but then neither of the above pair of veterans would fill anyone’s heart and head with confidence either.  Jonah Tong belongs here, sometimes showing brilliance but other times being treated as a batting practice pitcher.

There has already been narrative about Senga receiving trade interest given his one year commitment of a modest $15 million salary.  There has been no chatter whatsoever about Manaea other than the piece suggesting a swap of ending salaries with the Rangers for their fist baseman, Christian Walker.

Consequently it is indeed looking as if the Mets will need not just one new starting pitcher but perhaps a pair of them since the alternatives are less than appealing if they are indeed serious about returning to contention.  Skubal is indeed ace material but the questions about him are both about his conditioning and the king’s ransom it will require per year and for many, many years to lure him onto David Stearns’ woefully constructed last place team that he did not improve.  The obvious pitchers behind him — Michael King and Clay Holmes — combined would cost less than Skubal and fill both of those vacancies.  

Trade possibilities including prominent names like the Twins’ Joe Ryan and the Rays’ Drew Rasmussen do exist but in this case preserving some of the team’s better minor league assets by opting to go the free agent route could be a better approach.  No one is going to give you one of the latter two for a package of the already written off players the Mets wish they could peddle elsewhere. 

For now it’s a frustrating waiting game to see what, if anything, takes place in the pitching rotation improvement.