Tom Brennan - THE METS' "ART OF THE STEAL"

Macks Mets writer John from Albany loves the stolen base.

Heck, who can't love a triple steal, or a steal of home, or a steal to get the winning running into scoring position that is followed by your favorite team's walk off hit?  I do.

The reality in Mets' history is the stolen base has been a weapon used relatively infrequently, and there are a variety of reasons for that.

The Mets' all time top 10 dudes in steals are as follows:

Jose Reyes 408, Mookie Wilson 281, Howard Johnson 202, David Wright 196, Darryl Strawberry 191, Lee Mazzilli 152, Lenny Dykstra 116, Bud Harrelson 115, Wally Backman 106, Roger Cedeno 105.  

Six of those 10 guys managed to steal more than 75% of the time, too, with Lenny D coming in on top at 82.27%, pretty nice.  

Carlos Beltran was successful stealing in 86%,

He was barely out of the Mets' top 10, at 100 career Mets steals.

Still, one must consider the down side of the stolen base as a weapon.

Jose Reyes was an Iron Man his first 4 full Mets seasons, averaging close to 160 games and averaging 65 steals.  In his next 7 seasons, he averaged just 115 games per season, largely due to leg issues.

David Wright was an Iron Man early on, too, until he turned brittle.  How much of that brittleness might have been due to the cumulative impacts from his base stealing is a worthwhile question, that I guess only he could answer.

Mookie Wilson stole 158 of his 281 bases over a 3 year stretch early in his career 1982-84, from ages 26-28.  His was a different issue, as he lost playing time due to his platoon with Lennie Dykstra for a few seasons, but at age 33, in his last Mets season prior to a mid year trade to Toronto, he stole just 7 bases in 80 games, a far cry from his gaudier totals in 1982-84.  Age slows most guys down who are not named Ricky Henderson.

Hojo was one of the Mets' best power/speed players ever, and had very balanced career numbers of 228 HRs and 231 steals.  Yet in his last 3 seasons, spanning 755 plate appearances, he stole just 18 bases, so the seed tool, as with Mookie, faded for Hojo once he hit age 32.

Rocket Roger Cedeno came from LAD with a season high of 9 steals in limited play and promptly stole 66 in his first Mets season at age 24.  At the time, I thought he was the fastest Met ever after watching him leg out an infield single on a normally hit grounder a few steps to the right of the shortstop - he just outran the sucker. 

That was the beginning of a 4 year stretch in which he stole 171 bases in 509 games.   From age 28-30, he stole just 19 more and was out of baseball, as his speed game vanished.

Speed is fleeting and can damage a good to great player.  A guy who realized that was Carlos Beltran, who stole 100 out of 116 attempts as a Met, but over a span of 839 games. 

SO it seems the true "Art" here is this: if your game is built on speed, then utilize it as much as you judiciously can, because once it is gone, you're gone soon after.

If you are a David Wright multi-talented type, realize the wear and tear that stealing can do to a player's body, and use to the tool judiciously like a Carlos Beltran.  Because when you are great, your health is everything.

The 2007 team was awesome with steals, swiping 200 while being caught just 46 times.

1994 was the polar opposite...in that strike-shortened 113 game (55-58) season, the laddies stole just 25 of 51, led by John Cangelosi with 5.  Jose Viscaino was the Anthony Young of steals, being successful just once in 12 attempts.  In fact, he, Jeff Kent, and Bobby Bonilla were a combined 3 for 21 in steal attempts!  Horrendous.

Before I go, I looked at a few of the slow afoot crew:

Ed Kranepool at age 18 stole 4 of 6, but after that, only 11 of 36, which tells me that at age 19 he lost a step or two.

Rusty Staub, while slow of foot, managed to somehow steal 6 of 9 as a Met, and was a surprisingly good 47 up and 33 down in his career, which shows that success can be had if one's mind is really put to it.

Bartolo Colon was up 326 times in his career and was never caught stealing - and he never stole a base, either.  He did manage to walk one time, though.  I imagine the walk was unintentional.  Robbie Ray was the (winning) pitcher who walked Colon in an August 2016 Mets game.  Go figure.

Wilson Ramos?  No surprise there, as he has been up nearly 3,500 times and is 1 for 4 in steals.  I guess the one time, the catcher probably got hysterical that he'd even try to steal and couldn't throw the ball, or something.

Oh, and John....Fonzie never stole more than 11 in a single season, but was a commendable 53 of 70 in his career.  Kudos to the Fonz.

OK, everybody - I won't steal any more of your time.

Let the Bidding Begin! SS Jung Ho Kang Posted.

     The Nexen Heroes have officially posted SS Jung Ho Kang for MLB bidding today and will be accepting offers from MLB over the next 4 business days. Kang is known for his herculean power in the KBO. In 117 games played in 2014, Kang hit .356 with 40 HR, 117 RBIs, and 36 doubles. Defensively he is a below average fielding SS with a very strong arm to make up for his range issues.

     Recent estimates expect the Nexen Heroes to expect a bid within the $10-$15m range. In addition to the bid, Kang is expected to request a 3 yr deal worth roughly $24m. On the surface, Kang seems like a no-brainer for clubs to go out and sign to fill their respective holes at SS. However, there are some serious concerns about how Kang's power and defensive skills will translate to the MLB. 

     The Korean Baseball Organization is widely known as being a heavy hitters environment. Kang's home field, Mokdong Stadium, is 322ft in the corners, 371ft in the allies, and 387ft in center field. By KBO standards Mokdong Stadium is an average size, other stadiums are as small as 312ft in the corners to a maximum of 328ft. The small stadiums help contribute to an insanely high league wide average of .807 OPS. The quality of pitching is also lackluster in the KBO. The average team ERA in 2014 was 5.22 runs per 9 innings. The average K/9 rate was 6.8 and average BB/9 rates was 3.8. The top pitchers in the league generally run their fastballs between 88-93mph, a far cry from the dominating 96-98mph fastballs of the most elite MLB pitchers.

For visual sake, here is a side by side comparison of the MLB to the KBO:

KBO	Stats	MLB
0.289	AVG	0.251
0.807	OPS	0.700
5.22	ERA	3.74
6.8	K/9	7.7
3.8	BB/9	2.9
1.0	HR/9	0.9

     It is very reasonable to believe that Kang's insane 2014 numbers will not translate to the MLB very well. However, as we can see, the HR rates between the 2 leagues are actually very similar. While we can safely assume that Kang will most certainly not hit .356 in the MLB, a high slugging percentage is not unreasonable.

     Defensively, Kang is considered league average in the KBO and evaluators believe he will translate into a below average defender in the MLB. One scout even went as far as to say that current Mets SS Wilmer Flores would be better than him. That is certainly a very troubling analysis to hear from talent scouts. One thing that has to be kept in mind though is that Kang played almost 75% of his games on fields with artificial turf as it's playing surface. 

     Turf infields play significantly faster then their grass counterparts and do not give fielders much time to react to hard hit groundball. One could reasonably assume that a transition over to grass fields will help Kang's defensive range by slowing the ball down and allowing his strong arm to make plays. Based on the available information and the differences between the two leagues I personally would forecast Kang posting the below stat line.

.260 Avg, .330 OBP, .430 SLG (.760 OPS), 25 HR, 150 K, 70 BB

     All in all, Sandy and his team have 96 hours to determine if Kang can be a reasonable upgrade to Wilmer Flores at SS. At $8m per season, a bust here would not be a earth shattering blow to the organization considering they spent $7.25m of dead money on Chris Young last year. If he proves out to be a strong bat but too poor of a defender at SS, the club will be able to find him a home in the AL before some of the younger talent in the minors is ready for the MLB.

Here is a video of Kang's 2013 highlights.

And Another of just his defensive play in the KBO.

FLASH: Scott Rice re-signs with Mets

     The Mets have announced that the organization has re-signed LHRP Scott Rice to a minor league contract with an invite to Spring Training camp. The club expects Rice to be fully recovered from season ending surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow. After an extremely successful rookie campaign in 2013 as the team's primary "LOOGY" reliever, Rice took a huge step back in terms of control in 2014 posting a BB/9 rate of 7.9 per 9 innings.

Free Agent Signing: John Mayberry Jr. to the Mets

     Jon Heyman of CBSsports confirms that the Mets have signed right handed OF John Mayberry Jr. to a major league contract. Mayberry Jr. spent time with both the Phillies and the Blue Jays last season and hit a paltry .212 avg but posted a pretty decent .734 OPS. Mayberry is deadly against left handed pitching hitting .243 against them while posting an OPS of .913. Mayberry will serve as the Mets primary right handed bat off the bench.

The contract is for 1 year/$1.45m

Opinion: Depending on the dollars, this is a strong signing for the club. Mayberry mashes left handed pitching, something the Mets have struggled against in the past. He is also an average defender in the corners and can spell Cuddyer in RF when he plays 1B for Duda against tougher lefties. On the flip side though, this probably spells the end for Cesar Puello. The club can now only hope that he somehow slides through waivers this spring.

Christopher Soto - Your Guide to Today's Rule 5 Draft!!

     Today at 12pm, General Managers from everything will have the ability to pluck talent from each others minor league system via the Rule 5 draft. The Rule 5 draft aims to prevent teams from stockpiling too many young players on their minor league affiliate teams when other teams would be willing to have them play in the majors.

     Eligibility depends on the original signing dates of players when they were amateurs in high school or college. Players who were 18 years or younger on the June 5, 2010, or, 19 years or older on the June 5, 2011 are eligible for this year's draft. These group of players can be "protected" from the draft if their respective teams added them to the 40 man roster a few weeks ago.

     The draft consist of 3 phases, a MLB phase, a AAA phase, and a AA phase. In the MLB phase, players who are eligible for the draft and are not on the 40 man roster are available for selection. If a team wants to select a player, they must have an open 40 man roster spot to place them on. The selecting team also needs to keep the selected player on the 25 man active roster for the entirety of the upcoming season. Failure to do so results in the player being returned to his original team, after he passes through waivers. Drafting teams must also pay $50,000 as compensation to the player's original team.

     In the AAA phase, clubs have the ability to add talent to their AAA teams by selecting "unprotected" players on AA or lower rosters. Just like the MLB, minor league teams also have "reserve" rosters that are used to move players up and down through the system. This is why some prospects you would expect to be at a higher level, aren't there because they have not been added to a reserve roster. AAA teams can host 38 players on the reserve roster, AA teams can have 37, the remaining minor league affliates are limited to 35. 

     If a club makes a selection in the AAA phase, the player becomes permanent property of the selecting club. In return compensation of $12,000 must be paid to the player's original team. The only roster restriction for players selected in the AAA phase is that they must be added to the reserve roster only. If a drafted player fails to crack the ACTIVE roster during the 2015 season, the drafting club still retains his rights and does not have to return the player.

     The AA phase has the same rules as the AAA phase. The only differences are, A) eligible players are from the A+ level or lower, and, B) the compensation cost is $4,000.

     The MLB phase of the Rule 5 draft is generally only for show as most players selected are returned to their original clubs. In the entire history of the draft, only 1 player was ever drafted that went on to have a Hall of Fame career (Roberto Clemente). 

     That said, there have been a few hits every once in a while. José Bautista, Alfredo Simon, Jason Grilli, Josh Hamilton, Johan Santana, Joakim Soria, Dan Uggla, Shane Victorino, Jayson Werth, and R.A. Dickey were all former Rule 5 draftees who have had success in the MLB.

     This year's crop of draft eligible players is certainly an interesting one. There are a number of unique players who could potential stick onto an MLB roster and contribute to a team's success:

(Courtesy of Baseball America)

Steven Baron, c, Mariners: an excellent defensive catcher with a light bat. He could easily stick as an MLB backup catcher.

Mark Canha, 1b, Marlins: with an above-average hit tool and average power, Canha can stick to an MLB as a back-up 1B, 3B, or even LF.

Edgar de la Rosa, rhp, Tigers: de la Rosa brings some serious heat to the table. The massive 6' 8" righty can crank it up to 100 mph at his best and pairs it with a usable changeup. Even though he's a minor league SP, he would fit in a big league bullpen.

Delino DeShields, of, Astros: despite being labeled as a "clubhouse problem" and "lazy" for not running out balls, DeShields still has the best tools in the Rule 5 draft. He is the only minor leaguer to ever hit 10 HR and steal bags in a season. DeShields could be an MLB teams starting CF.

Gregory Infante, rhp, Blue Jays: he's already made it to the majors once but was left unprotected this year. Infante struggles with control but still has a 97 mph fastball plus an average slider. He’s throwing well in the Venezuelan League for La Guaira.

Andrew McKirahan, lhp, Cubs: a full time reliever and former Tommy John recipient, Andrew brings plus velocity from the left side thanks to his 96 mph fastball. He mixes it with an average breaking ball as well.

40 Man Roster Moves: DFA'd and Rule 5 Protection Adds

   The following players have been added to the Mets 40 man roster thus protecting them from the Rule 5 draft.

•  RHSP Noah Syndergaard
•  RHSP Cory Mazzoni
•  RHRP Hansel Robles
•  RHCL Akeel Morris
•  LHRP Jack Leathersich
•  RHSP Gabriel Ynoa

In order to make room on the roster for these additions, RHRP Jeff Walters has been removed from the 40 man roster. He has passed through waivers and has been assigned to AAA Las Vegas.

SS Yoan Moncada Impresses Many at Pro Day

   

     Highly coveted international Free Agent SS Yoan Moncada hosted a showcase yesterday at a facility in his newly established residence in Guatemala. An estimated 60 to 70 Scouts and executives from every MLB team (sans the Los Angeles Angels) attended the event to feast their eyes on what potentially could be the single largest name to come out of Cuba at his age in MLB history. Even though the 19 year old is subject to MLB international signing rules, it is widely anticipated that Moncada will receive a record breaking bonus from someone once he is cleared by the United States Foreign Assets Control Office.


     Moncada ran the bases, a 60 yd dash, took batting practice, and took infield grounders from his natural position of SS, as well as, 3B and 2B. According to scouts, Moncada showed true "five-tool potential" through-out the day. MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo was on site and talked to a number of scouts and executives to get their opinions on the showcase. A scouting director stated, "He's worth going way over your international spending pool in my opinion. This game is about talent and Moncada is the kind of talent worth the investment."


     It was previously reported that he beat Rusney Castillo in a foot race and the speed gauge was true. He ran his 60 yard dash in 6.6 seconds which resulted in scouts giving him a 70 grade for his speed. Scouts also gave the switch hitting infielder a 60 grade for his hit tool and a 60 grade for his power from both sides of the plate. They were disappointed that he did not face "live pitching," however, they still came away quite giddy about his hitting potential.


     Defensively, Moncada showed plenty of arm strength at all 3 positions netting himself a 60 grade for his arm at SS. While scouts were satisfied with his performance at SS, his arm accuracy looked better from 3B and 2B than it did at SS. Coming out of the showcase, scouts gave him an average 50 grade for his abilities at SS which could play up to 60 grades at 3B and 2B.


     Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports was also on site and talked to 2 General Managers and 2 other executives about what they think Moncada is worth with the international signing rules in mind. The signing bonus values ranged anywhere from $30 million to $40 million. If Moncada were an American citizen coming out of High School, many believe he would be the unanimous #1 draft pick. "(He is) the best amateur player available, better than any draft-eligible high school or college player, better potentially even than Yasmany Tomas."


     Only time will tell if the Mets are going to be interested in committing that kind of money to Moncada. The chips seem to be in perfect alignment though as the Mets do not have a 1st round draft pick in 2015 and could potentially "replace" it by signing Moncada. The team is also very active in the interntional market, having signed 6 IFA's so far this year, and has a history of finding quality IFA's at lower bonus prices such as Vicente Lupo, Marcos Molina, Gabriel Ynoa, and Ali Sanchez. One could say that due to the scouting network the Mets have built, a $300k limitation next year would not hurt them as much as other teams.


     At this point though every team, minus the Chicago Cubs and the Texas Rangers who are limited to only $300k by their overspends last year, seems to be good bets to sign Moncada. For those interested in what those grades equal to in terms of MLB production see below.


60 hit tool  =   .280 avg
60 power   =    23-27 HR
70 speed    =    25-30 SB

Qualifying Offer Tracker: 4pm Deadline to Accept or Reject QO's

     Today is the final day that players, who were extended a Qualifying Offer, can accept or reject the offer. Accepting a qualifying offer will sign the player to a 1 yr/$15.3M contract for the 2015 season. Rejecting the offer will make the player a "QO" free agent. If a team decides to sign a "QO" Free Agent, they will lose their 1st "un-protected" draft pick in the 2015 Rule 4 Draft.

Player	Decision	Notes
Max Scherzer
Victor Martinez		The Blue Jays and Mariners are both interested in Martinez on a multi year deal.
Hanley Ramirez	Rejected	Hanley is reportedly open to a positional change to 3B for the right deal. This should broaden his market a little more. Ramirez is looking for multi-year deal worth north of $100M.
Pablo Sandoval	Rejected	The Red Sox are reportedly heavily in on Sandoval and are scheduled to meet with him this week. He is also meeting with the Giants, Blue Jays, and White Sox.
James Shields
Russell Martin	Rejected	The Market for Martin is extremely strong. He is scheduled to meet with the Cubs, Pirates, Dodgers, and Blue Jays this week
Nelson Cruz	Rejected	The market's biggest bat is reportedly looking for a 4 yr contract
David Robertson	Rejected	Robertson is viewed as the top closer on the market and the Yankees seem willing to let the market establish his potential contract value before determining whether to match it or not.
Ervin Santana	Rejected
Francisco Liriano
Melky Cabrera
Michael Cuddyer	Rejected	Michael Cuddyer has signed a 2 year contract with the Mets.

Chris Soto - MMs Off-Season Series: Identifying the Mets Weaknesses/Areas Needing Improvement

     With the 2014 season over it's now time to focus our attention to the 2015 off-season. With the emergence of our young stars this season and the return of the "Dark Knight of Flushing," this off-season is going to be a critical one for Sandy Alderson and company. Today we will identify the Mets main areas of concern by matching up each offensive position's results with the MLB average.

Catcher- Travis d'Arnaud (108), Anthony Recker (58), Juan Centeno (10), Taylor Teagarden (9)
2014 Stats: .226 AVG, .670 OPS, 20 HR, 74 RBI, 2 SB, 47 BB, 134 K
OPS Rank: T-19th 

     A large part of this position's inability to produce league average results was primarily due to d'Arnaud's atrocious start to the season. After posted OPS scores of  .601 and .524 in April and May, respectively, d'Arnaud was optioned to AAA to clear his head and get his swing back. Upon returning to the MLB, d'Arnaud finally showed why he was once considered the top catching prospect in baseball. From June thru September, he posted OPS scores of .692, .795, .709, and .903. The combined Rest of Season OPS of .795 would have ranked 2nd in the entire MLB only behind Milwaukee's Jonathan Lucroy.


1st Base- Lucas Duda (153), Eric Campbell (85), Josh Satin (25), Ike Davis (15)
2014 Stats: .248 AVG, .799 OPS, 29 HR, 96 RBI, 3 SB, 81 BB, 154 K
OPS Rank: 10th 

     Duda's breakout season was a welcome development this season. It has always been known that Duda possessed mammoth power, but with Ike Davis on the team, the two were forced into sharing playing time which capped Duda's potential. Once the club traded Davis away to the Pirates, Duda began blasting HR's out of Citi Field with ease. He still continues to struggle against left handed pitchers hitting only .180 with a .516 OPS, but, with an off-season of knowing that he's the guy, Duda can now focus solely on improving that skill. If he could even bring that average against lefties closer to the .220 - .230 range, the OPS should follow suit giving him the opportunity to play everyday and maybe even hit 35 HRs this season.


2nd Base- Daniel Murphy (143), Wilmer Flores (78), Dilson Herrera (18)
2014 Stats: .292 AVG, .769 OPS, 15 HR, 73 RBI, 13 SB, 48 BB, 109 K
OPS Rank: 6th 

     As good as Duda was last season, Daniel Murphy was still this team's MVP. He is perhaps the most consistent hitting 2B in the MLB. Over the past 3 seasons his AVG has come in at .291/.286/.289 and his OPS has been .735/.733/.734. Despite the talks of him getting traded this off-season to create some budget space, I think the Mets would be foolish NOT to bring him back. Just line him up in the #2 hole and watch him hit another .290 AVG season with  10 HR and 15 SB.


Shortstop- Ruben Tejada (119), Wilmer Flores (78), Omar Quintanilla (15), Wilfredo Tovar (2)
2014 Stats: .236 AVG, .629 OPS, 8 HR, 57 RBI, 13 SB, 59 BB, 91 K
OPS Rank: 25th 

     Another terrible season at SS for the Mets in 2014. At least it wasn't as bad as 2013's 2nd to last OPS of an atrocious .561. Quite frankly it's surprising to see 5 teams worse than the Mets SS's, including a playoff team (Detroit). Irregardless of the year over year improvement, the Tejada era has run its course and needs to end. Its worth noting that once Flores took over the position full-time in August, he posted OPS numbers of .639 and .791 over the final two months of the season. The combined OPS of .730 would be good enough to rank 5th in major league baseball.


3rd Base- David Wright (134), Eric Campbell (85)
2014 Stats: .263 AVG, .670 OPS, 8 HR, 69 RBI, 9 SB, 45 BB, 141 K
OPS Rank: 22nd 

     Oh David....Can we please get you through a season without getting hurt? This is now his 3rd season in the past 4 where either he played hurt, or sustained a season ending injury. When he's healthy....David is one of the best players in the game and regularly post +6.0, +7.0, and even as high as +8.4 WAR seasons. With 3rd Base being one of the weaker positions in baseball right now, getting Wright back on the "w"right path is more important now than ever. Especially since he's the owner of 20%+ of the budget.


Left Field- Eric Young Jr. (100), Chris Young (88), Eric Campbell (85), Kirk Nieuwenhuis (61), Matt den Dekker (53), Andrew Brown (19)
2014 Stats: .219 AVG, .615 OPS, 6 HR, 46 RBI, 34 SB, 70 BB, 141 K
OPS Rank: 29th 

     We all knew that LF was a black hole in the line-up this year.....but to think that the position was collectively worse than SS this year is downright maddening. As much of a waste of money Chris Young was, he thankfully, and smartly, was only on a 1 yr deal. EYJ is also expected to be a goner along with Andrew Brown, so this position is now ripe for the taking. It is widely expected that Curtis Granderson and his weak arm will be shifted over here to improve his defensive value. Even with his down year, such a move would improve the position to 16th overall with potential upside if Grandy can take advantage of the new field dimensions.


Center Field- Juan Lagares (116), Chris Young (88), Kirk Nieuwenhuis (61), Matt den Dekker (53)
2014 Stats: .270 AVG, .729 OPS, 14 HR, 76 RBI, 18 SB, 38 BB, 139 K
OPS Rank: 11th 

     Well this is a pleasant surprise...For all the talk of how much defensive value Juan Lagares adds....no one seems to acknowledge that he was also in the Top 33% in terms of offensive value too. If Lagares can continue developing his base-stealing abilities and bring a bit more power to the table, he may legitimately turn into a perennial All-Star/+5.0 WAR player. It would help though if he could stay on the field too, as we'll need more than 116 games out of him next season.


Right Field- Curtis Granderson (155), Bobby Abreu (78), Andrew Brown (19)
2014 Stats: .241 AVG, .735 OPS, 19 HR, 78 RBI, 11 SB, 87 BB, 144 K
OPS Rank: 14th 

     For as much shit we threw Granderson way in April and May....he turned out to have an ok season and brought some positives to the table. For 1, he played almost every single day and stabilize a position that has been in flux ever since Carlos Beltran in his final season. He also hit 20 HR (1 was as a DH) and improved his K rate by 7% since his time with the Yankees. Sandy Alderson claims with the new dimensions that Grandy would have hit 7 more HRs. In addition, despite Granderson's good defense (+8 DRS fielding), his lack of a strong arm (-8 DRS arm) offset all of his positive defensive value. A move to LF is the best option for Grandy next season where his bat should continue to play well.


Conclusion- After reviewing the data, it tells us what we already know. RF is quite honestly, the club's only real main area of concern. With normal full season performances from a healthy Wright, d'Arnaud, and Flores, the club has 6 positions capable of producing within the Top 3rd of the MLB rankings and 7 positions capable of being in the top half. Adding a legitimate hitter in RF could put this team over the hump offensively enough to finally support what is widely regarded to be one of the best young rotations, and best young bullpens in baseball next season.

MMs Off-Season Series: Rule 5 Draft; Who do we protect?

     With the 2014 season over it's now time to focus our attention to the 2015 off-season. With the emergence of our young stars this season and the return of the "Dark Knight of Flushing," this off-season is going to be a critical one for Sandy Alderson and company. Today we will review the Rule 5 draft, players who are eligible for it, and decide who we protect.

Rule 5 Draft

     For those of you who need a refresher as to what the Rule 5 draft is; its purpose is to prevent teams from stockpiling too many young players on their minor league affiliate teams when other teams would be willing to have them play in the majors. Minor League players who are not on their major league organization's 40-man roster AND either A) were 18 yrs old or younger before June 5th, of the year they signed their 1st contract and this is their 5th Rule 5 draft or B) were 19 or older before June 5th of the year they signed their 1st contract and this is their 4th Rule 5 draft.

     If a player is selected via the Rule 5 draft, the drafting club must keep them on their 25 man roster for the entire season. If they fail to do so, the drafting club must give the player back to the original club .

Eligible Players
     For the Mets, this means the following players are eligible for this season's Rule 5 draft.
(Hat tip to Chris Walendin of tpgmets.blogspot.com for maintaining this list.)

AAA- Las Vegas 51s
Chasen Bradford, John Church, Darin Gorski, Jack Leathersich, Cory Mazzoni, Daniel Muno, Noah Syndergaard, Zack Thornton, Cory Vaughn, Logan Verrett

AA- Binghamton Mets
Xorge Carrillo, Darrell Ceciliani, Randy Fontanez, Ryan Fraser, Chase Huchingson, Adam Kolarek, Rainy Lara, Dustin Lawley, Cam Maron, Greg Peavey, Tyler Pill, T.J. Rivera, Travis Taijeron, Jon Velasquez, Gabriel Ynoa

A+- St. Lucie Mets
T.J. Chism, Maikis De La Cruz, Cole Frenzel, Gilbert Gomez, Julian Hilario, Seth Lugo, Luis Mateo, Domingo Tapia, Beck Wheeler

A- Savannah Sand Gnats
Octavio Acosta, Victor Cruzado, Miller Diaz, Jeff Glenn, John Mincone, Bret Mitchell, Akeel Morris, Alex Panteliodis, Jorge Rivero, Yeixon Ruiz, Nelfi Zapata

A- Brooklyn Cyclones
Adrian Abreu, Alberto Baldonado, Shane Bay, Michael Bernal, Anthony Chavez, A.J. Pinera, Luis Rengal, Eddie Rohan, Edioglis Villasmil

R- Kingsport Mets
Gaby Almonte, Leon Canelon, Oswald Caraballo, Josh Dunn, Ramon Estevez, Jose Figuera, Juan Carlos Gamboa, Audry German, Carlos Gomez, Vicente Lupo, Yoryi Nuez, Luis Ortega, Persio Reyes, Ruben Reyes, Jean Rodriguez

R- GCL Mets
Kevin Canelon, Jose Celas, Jose Encarnacion, Gabriel Feliz, Manuel Hilario, Miguel Leal, Alvin Maracaro, Flabio Ortega, Natanael Ramos, Alfredo Reyes, Waldo Rodriguez, Lenny Rosario


Who Should We Protect?
     In our last segment we freed up (4) 40 man roster spots with the non-tenders of Andrew Brown, Eric Young Jr., Ruben Tejada, and Buddy Carlyle. In addition, the Mets front office has removed the following players from the 40 man as well, Juan Centeno, Josh Satin, Dana Eveland, and Scott Rice. This gives us (8) eligible spots to use. Here are the guys I would protect and why....


RHSP Noah Syndergaard- This one is a no-brainer. Syndergaard is a Top 10 MLB prospect and the 2nd to last piece of the Mets future unstoppable starting rotation. He could be selected and made any team's #3 SP today. He should be with the MLB team by July at the absolute latest, barring any injuries.

RHRP Cory Mazzoni- Mazzoni is a hard throwing righty that is ready to slot into any MLB bullpen right now. Unfortunately for him the Mets bullpen is pretty packed with righties at the moment but if any of them gets injured in season, look for Mazzoni to be the 1st one called up. There's even an outside chance he could supplant Carlos Torres during Spring Training.

LHRP Jack Leathersich- The Leather Rocket has the more swing and miss stuff than any other relief pitcher in the Mets organization right now. The only other guy who even comes close to sniffing Leathersich's K rates is Savannah closer Akeel Morris. As a lefty, Leathersich is a prime candidate to be taken during the Rule 5 draft and dropped into a team's back end of the bullpen. The Mets won't let that happen as he has the opportunity to be the club's 2nd lefty out of camp next season.

RHSP Gabriel Ynoa- While we are on the subject, when it comes to the Rule 5 draft, minor league pitchers are the most likely guys that are selected. This is because teams can always hide them at the #7 guy in the bullpen and only use them in low leverage mop-up situations. After Syndergaard, Ynoa is the highest level right handed prospect in the system right now. We may not be sure if he's going to be an impact player yet, but I'd rather not take the chance of losing him. 

C Xorge Carrillo- Carrillo is absolutely tearing the cover off the ball in the MPL this off-season. That said, he probably was not going to be protected...until Centeno was claimed off waivers that is. With Centeno gone, Carrillo is now the #2 Catcher in the system AND the highest level catcher that is Rule 5 eligible. With Plawecki still 1 year away from needed a 40 man roster spot, Carrillo will likely assume the annual 3rd catcher role for 2015. 

RHRP Akeel Morris- Just like with Ynoa, Akeel Morris is another arm that could be taken in the draft and then hidden in the back of the bullpen. However, unlike Ynoa, we KNOW that Morris can be an impact arm. After his 2014 campaign, Morris has vaulted himself into Top 15 consideration and categorized himself as 1 of, if not, the top true relief prospects in baseball.

MMs Off-Season Series: 40 Man Roster Changes and Non-Tenders

     With the 2014 season over it's now time to focus our attention to the 2015 off-season. With the emergence of our young stars this season and the return of the "Dark Knight of Flushing," this off-season is going to be a critical one for Sandy Alderson and company. We already took a look at Alderson's starting budget and the players already contractual committed here. We reviewed all the team friendly, renewable contracts for the young stars here and Arbitration Cases were looked at here. Now lets look at the 40 man roster we have to start with this off-season....

40 Man Roster

Starters	Relievers	Catchers	Infielders	Outfielders	60 Day DL
Bartolo Colon	Carlos Torres	Anthony Recker	David Wright	Curtis Granderson	Matt Harvey
Jonathan Niese	Scott Rice	Travis d'Arnaud	Daniel Murphy	Eric Young Jr.	Bobby Parnell
Dillon Gee	Jenrry Mejia	Juan Centeno	Lucas Duda	Andrew Brown
Zack Wheeler	Gonzalez Germen		Ruben Tejada	Juan Lagares
Rafael Montero	Juerys Familia		Josh Satin	Matt den Dekker
Jacob deGrom	Victor Black		Eric Campbell	Kirk Nieuwenhuis
Steven Matz	Dana Eveland		Wilmer Flores	Cesar Puello
Daisuke Matsuzaka	Buddy Carlyle		Dilson Herrera	Bobby Abreu
	Josh Edgin		Wilfredo Tovar
	Erik Goeddel
	Dario Alvarez
	Jeff Walters

     First thing's first, 5 days after the conclusion of the Worlds Series, teams need to move all players from the 60 day DL back to the 40 man roster. Luckily for the Mets, Bobby Abreu and Daisuke Matsuzaka are only Free Agents eligible guys on the list so this makes for 2 easy transactions. 

Contract Expired: RHP Daisuke Matsuzaka and OF Bobby Abreu

Reinstated: RHP Matt Harvey and RHP Bobby Parnell

     Next we need to think about the Rule 5 draft. We will be reviewing the cases in our next edition but for now lets assume the Mets need to clear a total of 4 spots to protect prospects who are eligible for the draft. 

Non-Tenders

     The easiest non-tenders always come from the bullpen. MLB bullpens are always a revolving door in the back end of them and unfortunately for Buddy Carlyle, the Mets have a bunch of right handed pitching depth they would rather use then to give him an arbitration raise. 

Release: RHP Buddy Carlyle

Budget Savings: $1,000,000

Current Budget: $97,509,000

     The next non-tender should come from the over-stuffed OF currently on the roster. Eric Young Jr. has seen his role diminish from an everyday LF starter to nothing more than an occasional pinch runner 2-3 times a week. If the Mets are going to continue having a speed only guy on the bench, they are going to want to pay a lot less than $2.3M for it.

Release: OF Eric Young Jr.

Budget Savings: $2,300,000

Current Budget: $95,209,000

     For the 3rd non tender, I'll look at Ruben Tejada. With Wilmer Flores playing an "adequate" defensive game at SS and possessing a bat far superior to Tejada's, Ruben finds himself demoted to a late inning defensive replacement role. But wait....Tejada isn't that good of a SS... while 2014 was his best defensive year with a +6 defensive run saved, his career rate is still a lackluster -2 DRS in almost 3,000 innings. In addition, the Mets have a young defensive minded SS on the 40 man roster in Wilfredo Tovar. In 80 AA games last season, Tovar only committed 3 errors at SS and 2 at 2B. Baseball America also called Tovar the team "Best Defensive Infielder in the System." Either the Mets are going to roll with Flores at SS or they are going to trade for/sign a Free Agent SS. In either case, Tejada is the odd man out.

Release: SS Ruben Tejada

Budget Savings: $1,700,000

Current Budget: $93,509,000

     This last one is a tough one. Based on team and managerial trends, Terry Collins likes to hold 5 OF, 6 IF, and 2 C on his roster. When looking at the current roster, we immediately look at Satin, Campbell, Brown, Den Dekker, Nieuwenhuis, and Puello. Satin, Den Dekker, and Campbell still have options remaining so keeping them gives the club flexibility. This leaves us with Brown, Kirk, and Puello. Puello still has prospect upside so the club will be hard pressed to let him go, which may in turn force them to keep him on the roster as the 5th OF. So your left with Kirk and Brown. When you look at just those two you realize....."the Mets bench guys are Recker, Campbell, Satin, and Puello....all righties." That makes the decision easy for me.

Release: OF Andrew Brown

Budget Savings: $550,000

Current Budget: $92,959,000

MMs Off-Season Series: 2015's Arbitration Cases

     With the 2014 season over it's now time to focus our attention to the 2015 off-season. With the emergence of our young stars this season and the return of the "Dark Knight of Flushing," this off-season is going to be a critical one for Sandy Alderson and company. We already took a look at Alderson's starting budget and the players already contractual committed here. Last week, we reviewed all the team friendly, renewable contracts for the young stars. Today we'll take a look at Arbitration Cases.

2015 Arbitration Eligible Players

     After a player 1st 3 years of a player's MLB service time they are subject to annual contract reviews through arbitration. Both the team and the player submit a salary that they think he/they are worth. The arbitor then reviews the case and selects who's salary figure is more appropriate. Since there is no middle ground, sometimes its in the best interest of both parties to agree on an extension before even reaching the hearing.

     This season the Mets have 9 players eligible for arbitration. A few of them are actually in for pretty substantial raises too which will make them trade targets. Figures are based on MLBTR formulas.

Player	Service Time (yrs)	2014 salary	2015 salary
Daniel Murphy	5.109	$5,700,000	$8,300,000	Trade Candidate
Bobby Parnell	5.132	$3,700,000	$3,700,000
Dillon Gee	4.028	$3,625,000	$5,100,000	Trade Candidate
Eric Young Jr.	4.123	$1,850,000	$2,300,000	Non-Tender Candidate
Lucas Duda	3.137	$1,637,500	$4,300,000
Ruben Tejada	3.171	$1,100,000	$1,700,000	Non-Tender Candidate
Jenrry Mejia	2.140	$509,675	$3,100,000
Dana Eveland	4.026	$500,000	$1,000,000
Buddy Carlyle	3.096	$500,000	$1,000,000	Non-Tender Candidate

     A few guys are non-tender candidates. With Matt den Dekker's speed and glove, EYJ is no longer useful to the club. Wilmer Flores is a huge offensive upgrade over Tejada and his defense has been ok for now. The club will want a late inning defensive replacement on the bench and Tejada is surely not that. Lastly, with Parnell returning in 2015 and the Mets having plenty of pitching depth under renewable contracts, there is no reason for them to keep the right handed Carlyle. Eveland may end up staying and competing for the 2nd lefty spot though

     The raises that will be toughest to swallow are the $2.6m raise to Murphy, the $2.7m to Duda, and the $1.5m raise to Dillon Gee. In Duda's case, the raise is deserved and needed with 0 MLB ready replacements in AAA. With Harvey's return, Wheeler and deGrom's growth, Niese's team friendly contract, and Syndergaard's near readiness, there may not be a spot on the team for Gee so he is likely to be traded. Murphy on the other hand is a different story.

     While Dilson Herrera may be viewed as Murphy's eventual replacement, he has yet to play in AAA which gives the Mets some flexibility. Theoretically, Herrera could spend time in AAA with Murphy on the team in 2015. If, come trade deadline time, the Mets are not in a playoff run, they could trade Murphy then instead of now. The market may force this decision due to the fact that the Middle Infield Free Agent class is rather deep with Astrubal Cabrera, Hanley Ramirez, JJ Hardy, Stephen Drew, Jed Lowrie, and Emilio Bonifacio all available.

     IF the Mets keep everyone, this fills their 40 man roster at a payroll of $98,509,000 which is clearly over budget by about $8m. For now this is the number we will start our off-season planning with and we'll work down starting in our next post.

MMs Off-Season Series: The Young Guns and their 2015 Renewable Contracts

     With the 2014 season over it's now time to focus our attention to the 2015 off-season. With the emergence of our young stars this season and the return of the "Dark Knight of Flushing," this off-season is going to be a critical one for Sandy Alderson and company. Last week, we took a look at Alderson's starting budget and the players already contractual committed. Today, its the team friendly, renewable contracts for the young stars.

2015 Renewable Contracts

     During the 1st 3 years of a player's MLB service time they are subject to annual contract renewals. This off-season the team has a mass of young stars and role players that have yet to achieve that 3rd year of time and do not qualify for Super 2 status.

     These contracts generally begin at the MLB league minimum (2014: $500,000) and are adjusted a small amount annually for cost of living inflation. Last year's COPA raise was 2% so we will assume the same rate for 2015. Please note that service time calculations are rough estimates. Service Times are to be read in the following manner (years.days; Example: Juan Lagares has 1.170 years of service time. This equals 1 years and 170 days.)

Player	Service Time (yrs)	2014 salary	2015 salary	Arbitration Eligible
Anthony Recker	2.128	$505,340	$515,500	2016
Carlos Torres	2.114	$561,875	$573,500	2016
Matt Harvey	2.072	$546,625	$558,000	2016
Andrew Brown	1.065	$538,045	$549,000	2017
Juerys Familia	2.030	$502,550	$513,000	2016
Scott Rice	2.000	$542,500	$553,500	2016
Josh Edgin	2.010	$500,000	$510,000	2016
Kirk Nieuwenhuis	1.110	$500,000	$510,000	2017
Juan Lagares	1.170	$506,636	$517,000	2017
Zack Wheeler	1.109	$512,375	$523,000	2017
Travis d'Arnaud	1.035	$501,560	$512,000	2017
Eric Campbell	0.140	$500,000	$510,000	2018
Jacob deGrom	0.135	$500,000	$510,000	2018
Victor Black	0.165	$502,250	$512,500	2018
Wilmer Flores	1.005	$500,000	$510,000	2017
Gonzalez Germen	0.165	$504,875	$515,000	2018
Josh Satin	1.035	$506,809	$517,000	2017
Matt den Dekker	0.104	$500,000	$510,000	2018
Rafael Montero	0.075	$500,000	$510,000	2018
Juan Centeno	0.066	$500,000	$510,000	2018
Dilson Herrera	0.035	$500,000	$510,000	2018
Erik Goeddel	0.030	$500,000	$510,000	2018
Dario Alvarez	0.025	$500,000	$510,000	2018
Steven Matz	0.000	$500,000	$510,000	2018
Cesar Puello	0.000	$500,000	$510,000	2018
Wilfredo Tovar	0.020	$500,000	$510,000	2018
Jeff Walters	0.000	$500,000	$510,000	2018

     Despite spending all of 2014 on the 60 Day DL, Harvey did accrue MLB service time which pretty much wasted a year of cost control for the Mets. The timing of Black, deGrom, and Campbell's promotions will allow the Mets to keep them under cost control for the full 6 seasons but they are trending to be Super 2 eligible which means they will get 4 arbitration raises instead of 3.

     With the renewing of their contracts, Sandy Alderson will add $14,010,000 to the payroll and now has now filled 31 of his 40 roster spots filled. The total payroll now stands at $68,010,000 before arbitration raises.