MMs Top 25: #8 1B Dominic Smith

#8 1B Dominic Smith (LR: #8)

Bats: L Throws: L
Height: 6' 0" Weight: 200 lb

Age: 20
Acquired: 2013 Rule IV Draft, 1st Round,  Junipero Serra HS (Gardena, CA)

2014: (A)   .271/.344/.338, 1 HR, 44 RBI, 2 SB (33%), 51 BB, 77 K
2013: (Rk) .301/.398/.439, 3 HR, 26 RBI, 5 SB (55%), 26 BB, 37 K

     I am extremely surprised in regards to the amount of people who are labeling Dom Smith a "bust" after his 2014 season. "He showed no power!," "his SLG was below his OBP," "he hit only .217 in August!" Those are just some of the comments received when you bring up Dominic Smith's name. It's a perfect case of focusing on singular statistics vs. the whole package as well as knee jerk reacting to one season. 

     As a high schooler, Smith only played in 27 games his senior season. In 2013, he almost doubled that to 51 games with Kingsport and in 2014, he doubled it again to 126 Savannah games. One of the added benefits of Short Season A Ball is that it makes this massive spike in playing time more gradual. Rather than going straight from 50 to 130 games, you make a stop at 75 with a short season club. However, the Mets front office agreed that Smith was too advanced for Brooklyn and sent him to dreaded Grayson stadium where power goes to die. 

      "He hit only .217 in August!" Your right, he also started slow, hitting only .212 in the month of April. Yet, despite those two horrid months, he still finished the year with a respectable .271 AVG on the year. Once Smith got going he showed scouts just how impressive his bat really is. Utilizing "the smoothest, cleanest left-handed swing in the draft class," according to scouts, Smith hit .305 across the months of May, June, and July. It has been reported that pure physical exhaustion was mostly to blame for his August numbers as he just wore down from the massive spike in playing time.Across the 136 games season, Smith played in 126 of them. The next closest was Pat Biondi with 115 of 136 games played. Surprise, surprise....he also suffered the same fate batting .190 in the month of August.

     "He showed no power!" Again....your right, only 1 HR all year long is paltry even for Grayson Stadium standards. However, it's not like he wasn't driving the ball. his 26 doubles were amongst the Top 20 hitters in the SAL in 2014. While the hard data to prove it out isn't tracked in the minors, I bet you this is a case of a HR to FB ratio being way below the league average. Maybe he wasn't strong enough to get it out of the big stadiums, maybe he kept hitting fences. If that's the case, Smith may have already solved it. Dom spent the off-season working out at the Barwis facility and is reported to have gained about 15 lbs of pure muscle. My gut feeling says you are going to be treated to a show this year if you live in Port St. Lucie.

     When you look at Dom Smith as a full package, there's not a ton of risk. The only question mark that surrounds him not "will he hit' but "how much power will he develop." This eliminates the AA prospect "wall" but he'll need to tap into the power to become an MLB contributor. No changes to his Ceiling/Floor this time around. 


Ceiling: 15-20 HR Solid OBP MLB 1B (Eric Hosmer)
Floor: No power Career AAA 1B.
Anticipated Assignment: (A+) Port St. Lucie starting 1B 

MMs Top 25: #9 RHSP Gabriel Ynoa

#9 RHSP Gabriel Ynoa (LR: #9)

Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6' 2" Weight: 160 lb

Age: 22
Acquired: 2009 International Signing, $150,000? Bonus, La Vega, Dominican Republic

2014: (A+/AA) 11-4, 4.07 ERA, 148.0 IP, 6.4 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, 1.311 WHIP
2013: (A) 15-4, 2.72 ERA, 135.2 IP, 7.0 K/9, 1.1 BB/9, 1.025 WHIP
2012: (SS-A) 5-2, 2.23 ERA, 76.2 IP, 7.5 K/9, 1.2 BB/9, 0.926 WHIP
2011: (Rk) 2-3, 3.21 ERA, 56.0 IP, 4.3 K/9, 0.6 BB/9, 1.089 WHIP
2010: (DsL) 5-3, 1.99 ERA, 72.1 IP, 4.4 K/9, 1.0 BB/9, 0.982 WHIP

     
     When evaluating prospects, there are three ways to project their future usefulness. You could make your ceiling projections based on the tools that you view and the flashes of brilliance that he may show. If you don't see those plus tools, does that mean you write him off? No not at all...Sometimes guys produce results that force you to change your style of thinking. Gabriel Ynoa was one of the those guys over the past few years. 

     Year after year, Ynoa has consistently been one of the most control oriented minor league arms in the entirety of minor league baseball. In 5 minor league seasons, 488 innings pitched, 1,979 batters face, he has only walked 63 or 3.2%. That is an absurdly low number, one that can skyrocket you through the lower levels of the minor league system. However, sometimes, it doesn't pay to throw so many strikes. Especially when you reach the upper levels of AA and AAA. Ynoa found this out the hard way when he was promoted to AA Binghamton last season. AA and AAA batters are more selective, have a better knowledge of the strike zone, and aren't "caught looking" as frequently as A ball and Rk league hitters.

     Once in Binghamton, Ynoa saw he already average K rate plummet from 7.0 to a below average 5.7 per 9 innings. Instead of K's, Ynoa was giving up more hits as his H per 9 innings rate jumped from 8.2 to 10.1. This is not a good sign nor is it a sign of future success at the MLB level. Last season only 2 SP had K rates below 6.0 and were able to produce ERA's below 3.00, Henderson Alvarez and Doug Fister. Both are considered to have "over-achieved" when you look at their historical numbers. Now this doesn't mean that Ynoa is destined to be a career minor leaguer. This is one case of a Met SP who has had a lengthy career as a low K, low BB, "let my defense do the work", his name is Bartolo Colon. Ynoa has much better stuff than Colon and if Colon can do it....then Ynoa certainly can as well.

     Luckily for Ynoa, he still has some projection to him. At 6' 2" and 160 lbs, Ynoa still has room to add bulk and velocity to his 91-93 mph fastball. Doing so, when combined with his superb control and advanced change-up, could make Ynoa the next top right hander to come out of the farm. MLB.com's Jonathan Mayo and Baseball Prospectus' Chris Mellen both seem to agree that Ynoa is destined to be a Top 100 prospect as well. Before we anointed him as the successor to the Syndergaard's top right handed prospect throne, he needs to conquer AA first. Something I do not forsee him having trouble with a second time around.

Ceiling: #3 MLB SP (Tim Hudson)
Floor: MLB Flex RP 
Anticipated Assignment: (AA) Binghamton Starting Rotation.

MMs Top 25: #10 RHSP Matthew Bowman

#10 RHSP Matt Bowman (LR: #19)

Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6' 1" Weight: 175 lb

Age: 24
Acquired: 2012 Rule IV draft, 13th round, Princeton University

2014: (AA/AAA) 10-8, 3.22 ERA, 134.1 IP, 8.3 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 1.310 WHIP
2013: (A/A+) 10-4, 3.05 ERA, 127.0 IP, 8.2 K/9, 2.5 BB/9, 1.150 WHIP
2012: (SS-A) 2-2, 2.45 ERA, 29.1 IP, 9.2 K/9, 0.6 BB/9, 0.955 WHIP

     Every year there is at least one guy who's "comes out of nowhere" to become an impact player for his MLB club. In 2014, it was Jacob deGrom...2013, Juan Lagares....2012, we saw both Kirk Nieuwenheis and Josh Edgin make an impact...so on and so forth. So who will be that guy in 2015? If I were a betting man and you asked me to put all my chips in one basket, I'd recommend jumping on the Matthew Bowman bandwagon.

     Before I even begin to talk about Bowman let me just throw this little nugget out here. Jacob deGrom played most of his college career as a SS and then converted to a SP late. After a few years of development deGrom is now one of the most promising young arms the Mets have. Coincidentally, Matt Bowman ALSO was a college SS who converted to SP during the 2011 season. After a few years of working with Mets coaches he's already staring down and striking out AAA and former MLB batters. Maybe we should just stop drafted SP's and draft all SS's. 

     There's so much to like about an athletic guy who just "knows" how to pitch. Bowman does not have the premium plus stuff that you find from most other top prospects, but, what he does have is 4 average to slightly above average pitches that play up thanks to his "odd" delivery. Well....it's not really all that odd anymore because it's actually an exact replica of NL CY Young Tim Lincecum's delivery. The motion allows him to maximize his smaller frame to produce a fastball velocity of between 91-93 mph with the occasional 94/95mph heater mixed in. It also helps disguise his hard slider which generates a large amount of K's against right handers. 

     The rest of Bowman's arsenal is quite vast; he also carries with him on a regular basis an average change-up, which he uses heavily against left handers and a 2-seam fastball that generates groundballs when he need them. In addition to those "50 grade" offerings, the Ivy Leaguer also carries a pitch in each of his back pockets. While he does not use them frequently, Bowman has also show a big 12-6 curveball that can throw unsuspecting batters off balance and a split finger fastball when a batters refuses to pound his 2-seamer into the ground.

     Bowman has already not only made it to AAA, but, he has also done well there in his short 6 start stint. Everything he has done up to this point reminds me of Jacob deGrom before he broke out last season. Unfortunately, the rotation is so much more crowded than it was last year. If somehow an opportunity does arise for Bowman to showcase his abilities at the MLB level....be prepared to be dazzled.

Ceiling: MLB #4 SP (The middle ground between CY Young and current day Tim Lincecum)

Floor: MLB Flex RP

Anticipated Assignment: (AAA) Las Vegas starting rotation.

MMs Top 25: #11 RHRP Akeel Morris

#11 RHRP Akeel Morris (LR: #23)

Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6' 1" Weight: 170 lb

Age: 22
Acquired: 2010 Rule IV draft, 10th round,  Charlotte Amalie HS (St. Thomas, Virgin Islands)

2014: (A) 4-1, 0.63 ERA, 16 SV, 57.0 IP, 14.1 K/9, 3.5 BB/9, 0.719 WHIP
2013: (SS-A) 4-1, 1.00 ERA, 1 SV, 45.0 IP, 12.0 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, 1.156 WHIP
2012: (Rk) 0-6, 7.98 ERA, 2 SV, 38.1 IP, 11.7 K/9, 5.2 BB/9, 1.565 WHIP
2011: (Rk) 3-2, 3.86 ERA, 0 SV, 51.1 IP, 10.7 K/9, 6.7 BB/9, 1.325 WHIP
2010: (Rk) 1-1, 2.19 ERA, 0 SV, 24.2 IP, 10.2 K/9, 6.2 BB/9, 1.216 WHIP

     Baseball is a game of balancing success with failure. Its the one game where an individual can fail 70% of time and still be a superb .300 hitter. For Akeel Morris, his early success was quickly destroyed by mechanical flaws which led to a massive failed 2012 season. However, rather than throwing in the towel, he adjusted. Recognizing that Morris had mounds of talent, the front office him converted from a starter to a reliever full time in 2013 and the results were astounding.

     Morris built on that superb 2013 season with an video game caliber 2014 season as the organization's newest top minor league closer. Morris faced 211 batters last season and gave up hits to 19 of them. That's right folks.....only 9%!!! of the batters he faced succeeded in reaching base via base hit. Meanwhile 42% of them failed to even make contact as Morris sent them back to the bench via the all powerful K. He was even ranked as Baseball America's top relief pitching prospect in the South Atlantic League.

     Morris brings to the table some superior stuff. While his fastball isn't the hottest around, coming in between 92-94 mph with a max of 96, it possesses superior movement that makes it almost impossible to hit for minor leagues. There are some scouts who believe that his fastball can play in the MLB right now. His other pitches have gotten better year over year but still need some work. His change-up is his best secondary offering right now, coming in between 83-85 mph. While the pitch can seem "stiff" at times, when right, it has some excellent down and away tilt to it. The 10 mph speed differential while maintaining his arm speed gives it the opportunity to turn into a plus pitch. His 3rd pitch used to be a curveball but he scrapped it last year in favor of a slider. The pitch is a better fit for his delivery as he can maintain his arm speed while still getting break on the pitch. The slider produces some excellent horizontal movement but currently lacks that ideal downward action that gets batters to swing over the top. 

     I'm surprised that it took the club so long to convert him full time to the bullpen as his max effort delivery was also a better fit for a relief role. Now that he's there, I would expect the front office to start accelerating his progression through the minor leagues. While I believe he starts 2015 in Port St. Lucie, I would not be surprised if you see him in Binghamton come June and maybe even Las Vegas if Binghamton is not competing and the AAA squad needs bullpen help in pursuit of a Pacific Coast League title.

Ceiling: MLB Closer (Dellin Betances)

Floor: Medium Leverage RP

Anticipated Assignment: (A+) Port St. Lucie Closer.

MMs Top 25: #12 RHSP Marcos Molina

#12 RHSP Marcos Molina (LR: #17)

Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6' 3" Weight: 200 lb
Age: 19
Acquired: 2012 International Signing, $100,000 Signing Bonus, Dominican Republic

2014: (SS-A) 7-3, 1.78 ERA, 76.0 IP, 10.8 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 0.842 WHIP
2013: (R) 4-3, 4.39 ERA, 53.1 IP, 7.3 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 1.312 WHIP
2012: (DSL) 5-2, 3.58 ERA, 55.1 IP, 6.5 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 1.120 WHIP

    For all the grief we give Alderson about his drafting skills, boy is his international scouting team good. Both Amed Rosario and Marcos Molina were international signings by Sandy Alderson in 2012 and both of them had breakout seasons in 2014. While Rosario mearly "held his own" against older and, by definition, superior talent, Molina flat out dominated the New York Penn League. As the Brooklyn Cyclones ace, he lead the league in wins, ERA, WHIP, and K's (By a ridiculous wide margin.)

     Molina carries some premium stuff with him. His fastball ranges between 92-94 MPH with a max of 96 and carries some "explosive" movement. According to Amazin Avenue's Jeff Pasternostro, "even by Penn League standards, I saw some bad, desperate swings at the fastball." As with many of the Mets recent SP prospects, he has a plus change-up that is well beyond his years. As the season went along, Molina abandoned the curveball and focused on improving his slider. He has tightened up the spin on it and he has developed it into a hard, biting, 2 plane pitch, that sits between 86-87 mph on the radar gun with a max of 89. With the development of his slider, Molina now possesses 3 plus pitches that could carry a ceiling of a rotation ace for an MLB team.

     Unfortunately, we cannot give him that super high ceiling yet. Molina's delivery still uses maximum effort to reach those mid 90's velocities. The amount of energy he expends disallows him the ability to hold his velocity deep into games. Reports have him starting games in the 94-96 mph range but slowing down to 90-92 by the 3rd inning and 88-90 by the 5th on most nights. Mechanically, he has not yet learned to use his lower half to generate power and his follow through has a significant amount of arm re-coil which could be shredding his elbow with each pitch.

     Just like with Rosario, Molina is still very young and not without his major flaws which is what makes him a high risk, high reward prospect. While conquering the NY-Penn League is an important 1st step, we have learned from countless occasions that even Brooklyn stats need to be taken with a grain of salt. Both Molina and Rosario will likely continue to climb the list like they did this year and we could very well could be looking at the next #1 and #2 prospects in the system by the end of next year. However, currently the risk is just too great. Specifically in Molina's case, it's two-fold. A) the motion screams bullpen right now and B) can he stay healthy with the max effort delivery

Ceiling: Dominating #2 MLB SP
Floor: Flames out due to an arm injury from the max effort delivery
Anticipated Assignment: (A) Savannah starting rotation

MMs Top 25: #13 SS Matt Reynolds

#13 SS Matt Reynolds (LR: #21)

Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6' 1" Weight: 200 lb

Age: 24
Acquired: 2012 Rule IV Draft, 2nd Round, University of Arkansas

2014: (AA/AAA) .343/.405/.454, 6 HR, 61 RBI, 20 SB (74%), 50 BB, 101 K
2013: (A+)         .225/.300/.335, 5 HR, 49 RBI, 9 SB (82%), 36 BB, 80 K
2012: (A)           .259/.335/.367, 3 HR, 13 RBI, 5 SB (83%), 12 BB, 26 K

     All aboard the Matt Reynolds bandwagon and the conductor Thomas Brennan! Seriously though, Matt Reynolds is a crazy anomaly. Is he the poor slap hitting, can't play SS, player that he was in 2012 and 2013? Or is he the .350 batting average stud that destroyed the upper levels of the minors and is forcing his way into consideration for the MLB roster? The answer depends on how committed you are to either traditional stats or sabermetrics.

    Contact oriented hitters are at the mercy of the baseball gods more than any other type of hitter. One stat that is extremely important to them is BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play). The MLB average for BABIP is roughly .300. In 2013, Reynolds posted a BABIP of .263 which resulted in a .226 AVG. In 2014 though, his BABIP skyrocketed to .419! which rose his batting average to a ridiculously good .343. This rate, by SABR standards, is ungodly unsustainable. In fact the highest BABIP rates in baseball right now is .377. Generally this high rates belong to only the most elite of players. The only proven guys with BABIP's above .350 are Puig, Goldschmidt, Cano, Gomez, Trout, Stanton, Altuve, Kemp, Tulowitzski, McCutcheon, and Rios.....all Superstars.

     While the actual contact abilities are certainly in question, Reynolds has made tangible and REAL improvements in other facets of his game. Power wise, Reynolds has gained both raw strength as well as game strength. Over the past 3 seasons, Reynolds Isolated Power Rate (Slugging - Average) has improved from .108 to .111 to .146 in 2014. The rate even made a brief appearance in the .200's when he posted a .208 ISO during the Arizona Fall League. The average MLB SS generally carries an ISO rate of only .105 to .115 so if Reynolds continues to display power rates in the .140 - .150+ range, he immediately carries more value than most other SS in the league. In fact, in 2014 the only MLB SS's who posted ISO rate above .150 were Hanley Ramirez, Troy Tulowitzki, Jhonny Peralta, and Ian Desmond.

     Questions surrounding Reynolds ability to stick at SS defensively have also been answered too. He has soft hands, good range, thanks to his sneaky good speed, and a least an average arm that could play. While he won't be a defensive star...he certainly won't hurt you either. Even if he doesn't become a full-time starter, he still carries very little risk as he defensive skill set can also match up well at 2B or 3B. I would personally declare him MLB ready and I honestly would not be surprised if we saw him either make the team out of spring or end up playing the big league club come the end of May.


Ceiling: Offense oriented MLB SS (Asdrubal Cabrera)
Floor: Back-up MLB Utility Player.
Anticipated Assignment: (AAA) Las Vegas starting SS

MMs Top 25: #14 SS Gavin Cecchini

#14 SS Gavin Cecchini (LR: #14)

Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6' 1" Weight: 180 lb

Age: 21
Acquired: 2012 Rule IV Draft, 1st Round,  Alfred M. Barbe HS (Lake Charles, LA).

2014: (A/A+) .247/.328/.378, 8 HR, 56 RBI, 10 SB (71%), 57 BB, 82 K
2013: (SS-A) .273/.319/.314, 0 HR, 14 RBI, 2 SB (40%), 14 BB, 30 K
2012: (Rk)     .240/.307/.321, 1 HR, 22 RBI, 5 SB (56%), 18 BB, 44 K

     Gavin Cecchini is a polarizing player to Mets fans. Amongst all the guys on this list, he probably has the widest split between fans who hate him and fans who love him. Statistically speaking, the SS position itself is not a very strong one offensively. Pretty much anyone who is capable of posting a .650+ OPS while playing solid defense can be an MLB league average SS. When Cecchini was drafted, fans were up in arms because...well...there's nothing "special" about Cecchini and the club passed on Cardinals darling SP Michael Wacha. That said, while he does not have any "plus" tools, he has 5 solid average ones.

     Cecchini has an already polished smooth line drive swing that fits well at the top or bottom of any line-up. When he combines this smooth swing with an advanced eye at the plate that generates a solid K:BB ratio. His 15.4% K rate in 2014 was actually one of the best in the Mets farm system. He also has the "Sandy Alderson" mentality of "hunting for your pitch." which he uses to work deep counts multiple times a game. All of these things combined get yourself a player who fits extremely well into today's version of an MLB lead-off hitter. 

     Cecchini also has pop in his bat too. Scouts original gave him a lowly "30" grade for his power but he added some strength during the 2013 off-season and came into Savannah and posted a .408 slugging percentage in one of the worst places for power in all of baseball. Even more surprising is that his slugging percentage was actually 30 points HIGHER at home then on the road. His improved power became more evident when the club promoted him to a the much more even Port St. Lucie environment and his HR totals doubled in a similar number of At-Bats. This has led to scouts increasing that tool to a much better "45" slightly below average grade.

     Cecchini's defense/his ability to STAY at SS is what attract the Mets to him in 2012. Many times during the draft a "SS" is drafted high because of his strong bat at what we know is a weak offensive position. However, many times, those guys fill out as they get older and they are forced off the position and end up at 3B. This EXACT thing happened to Gavin's brother Garin during his time in Boston. The older of two Cecchini's was 2 inches taller and 40 lbs heavier which led to his inability to stick at SS. This is not the case for Gavin. He's the right size (6' 1"), his hands are smooth, his movements are fluid, his arm is solidly above average, and his range is solid average as well. Amongst all the SS's in the Mets system right now (outside of Guillorme), Cecchini is the best bet to STAY at SS long term.

     There's a lot to like about Cecchini, there is very little risk in his projection and while his ceiling is not something crazy, like a Troy Tulowitzski type player, he absolutely has a solid projection of turning into a .270 AVG hitter with a .330 OBP, 12-15 HR power, and above average defense. That's an Alexei Ramirez caliber player right there. Could a team ask for any more out of a 1st rounder? Probably.....but I'd rather have a solid contributor than a 1st round bust.


Ceiling: Solid MLB starting SS (Alexi Ramirez)
Floor: Back-up MLB SS.
Anticipated Assignment: (AA) Binghamton starting SS

MMs Top 25: #15 SS Amed German Rosario

#15 SS Amed German Rosario (LR: #18)

Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6' 2" Weight: 170 lb

Age: 19
Acquired: 2012 International Signing, $1,750,000 signing bonus, Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic

2014: (SS-A/A) .274/.320/.372, 2 HR, 27 RBI, 7 SB (70%), 15 BB, 58 K
2013: (Rk)        .241/.279/.358, 3 HR, 23 RBI, 2 SB (25%), 11 BB, 43 K

     Before you go screaming your head off about where Amed Rosario is in regards to this ranking....read my primer here first, then read what I have to write here. Appreciate the positives at the begining of each paragraph....but then also recognize the risk associated with the negatives that are still present. I must confess...I was extremely unfair to Amed Rosario last time we reviewed him when I gave him a ceiling of Troy Tulowitzski after just seeing him in Kingsport. While he may eventually get there, he's not THAT good.....yet. That said, Rosario is still possesses one of the strongest ceilings in the Mets system right now.

    Rosario has made some improvements on his swing by cutting down his swing length and reducing the severity of his leg kick. When combined with his already quick hands, the changes have given him the ability to turn on fastballs both inside the zone as well as keep up with premium velocity stuff up in the zone. While  Rosario has grown physically stronger year over year, the added strength is not translate into his swing. When taking batting practice next to the likes of Michael Conforto, you could HEAR the differences in the loudness of the contact each player was making. While Rosario was driving pitches in all directions, it just didn't sound like a powerful enough swing yet.

     Rosario's hitting approach has been improving as well. He has been able to cut down on his already reasonable K rate from 19% in 2013 to 18% in 2014. He seems to have a strong sense of the strike zone from top to bottom, never chasing pitches that are too or too low. However, he still struggles quite a bit with his K zone recognition from left to right, primarily on horizontal breaking pitches such as sliders and 11-5/10-4 curveballs. It's certainly not a problem that's particular to him as most 18 years olds have this problem,. He still has plenty of development time left to improve on this pitch recognition skills so the point here is that....again....he is no where close to a finished product and he still carries significant development risk.

     Lastly lets touch on the defense. Rosario is pretty solid this aspect of his game. Playing on a much higher quality Brooklyn field than in his past seasons, his hands looked softer, his fielding looked clean, and his reactions off the bat were pretty solid. He possesses enough arm strength to stick at the SS position but previous reports of his "cannon arm" seem overblown. He is fearless though, never being afraid or hesitant to make throws from the hole or with a runner bearing down on him when turning the double play. \

     While I am fully confident that he will continue to fill out his frame and become stronger....I do have some concerns that increased body mass could reduce his speed/range from its already average state. There should be no reason to rush Rosario at this point in time as he still needs lots of work. A full season developing in Savannah is probably the most likely scenario this year unless he absolutely mashes.
     

Ceiling: Solid MLB starting SS (Jimmy Rollins)
Floor: Hits the AA prospect wall.
Anticipated Assignment: (A) Savannah starting SS

MMs Top 25: #16 RHSP Cory Mazzoni

#16 RHP Cory Mazzoni (LR: #10)

Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6' 1" Weight: 200 lb

Age: 25
Acquired: 2011 Rule IV draft, 2nd round, North Carolina State University

2014: (R/A+/AA/AAA) 7-2, 4.68 ERA, 77.0 IP, 8.8 K/9, 2.3 BB/9, 1.299 WHIP
2013: (AA)                 5-3, 4.36 ERA, 66.0 IP, 10.1 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 1.348 WHIP
2012: (A+/AA)          10-6, 3.93 ERA, 144.1 IP, 6.5 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, 1.316 WHIP
2011: (SS-A/A+)        2-1, 1.38 ERA, 13.0 IP, 12.5 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 1.154 WHIP

     Boy oh boy.....I don't know what to think about Mazzoni anymore. I have personally seen Mazzoni in person in Binghamton and let me tell you.....when Mazzoni is healthy, he flashes excellent stuff. At times he can dominate and I believe he is advanced enough that he could contribute at the MLB level right now. Other times though, it just unravels for him on the mound. When things are not going right, even when he makes good pitches, they fly off the bat left and right. Across a full seaon, the results are just not there and I'm not sure why. 

     Well....actually I kind do know...The Mets front office loves Mazzoni's secondary pitches. His slider, while inconsistent at times, has a sharp hard 2 plane break that gets right handed hitters fishing pretty consistently. The pitch comes in pretty hot too between 84-86 mph. He also has a very unique change-up/split finger fastball blend pitch that can be considered a rarely seen "Fosh Ball." The most recent pitchers I can think who have used the pitch are Trevor Hoffman, Tom Gordon, and Jeff Suppan. It has some heavy downward break like a change-up but comes in pretty hot like a splitter at around 81-83 mph. Despite being a righty, Mazzoni has eaten left handed hitters alive with this pitch, but again, just like his slider, it can be inconsistent at times and on bad nights it'll slip and just float in. 

     Because of the two strong secondary pitches, The Mets are convinced that Mazzoni can combine them with his mid 90's fastball and be a full-time starter with a pretty high ceiling. I too, have been holding out hope but that's just not the case. Mazzoni suffers from what I like to call "Bobby Parnell syndrome." Mazzoni can bring his fastball anywhere from 92 to a 97 mph max, but, when he does crank that velocity up the pitch becomes straight as an arrow. When Mazzoni keeps it in the 92-93 range, it has enough movement to get by 1 or 2 times through the order. That 3rd time through though, when your starting to get tired and need to reach back for a little extra, it begins to flatten out again at the lower velocities too.

     I truly believe that the Mets need to make him switch full time to a reliever in order to utilize that premium end of his velocity later in games. He's got the stuff to be successful he just needs the opportunity. In case of injury, Mazzoni will probably be the 1st guy called up to fill a spot in the bullpen. With weapons that can get both lefties and righties out, he still has the ceiling to be a 8th inning RP, but, without that fastball movement I can't see him sticking as a SP anymore. A Flex RP (like Carlos Torres) could be a good fit for him too.

Ceiling: MLB High Leverage RP (Bobby Parnell)

Floor: MLB Flex RP

Anticipated Assignment: (AAA) Las Vegas Bullpen.

MMs Top 25: #17 LHRP Jack Leathersich

#17 LHRP Jack Leathersich (LR: #13)

Bats: L Throws: R
Height: 5' 11" Weight: 200 lb

Age: 24
Acquired: 2011 Rule IV draft, 5th round, University of Massachusetts-Lowell

2014: (AA/AAA) 3-3, 1 SV, 3.31 ERA, 54.1 IP, 15.4 K/9, 4.6 BB/9, 1.362 WHIP
2013: (AA/AAA) 4-0, 3 SV, 4.63 ERA, 58.1 IP, 15.7 K/9, 6.9 BB/9, 1.646 WHIP
2012: (A/A+) 2-6, 2 SV, 3.00 ERA, 72.0 IP, 14.1 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, 1.153 WHIP
2011: (SS-A) 0-0, 1 SV, 0.71 ERA, 12.2 IP, 18.5 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 0.711 WHIP

     When you are a senior draftee out of College and have already made the full time switch to RP....the margin of error you have to reach the MLB is so thin. A pure reliever needs to show an unbelievable talent to generate outs to not only beat out 7 other peers per level, but to also beat out the 5+ rotational guys who still have the option to make the switch. For the Leather Rocket, he's done everything right so far except one thing....conquer Las Vegas.

     Leathersich has had two shots at AAA so far and both times he went from an unstoppable force to a free pass giving machine. His 61 game career in AA has resulted in a 2.63 ERA, a K rate of 16.0 per 9 innings and a manageable 4.4 BB per 9 IP. his 39 game career in AAA has produced a dreadful 7.23 ERA, 14.7 K/9, and a 8.9 BB/9 rate. We all know the jump from AA to AAA is tough but the split in his BB/9 rate is just absurd. He's also given up twice as many HR's in half as many games. So what the heck is going on? In a Q & A session with Fangraphs' David Laurila, Leathersich alluded to what he thought the problem was...

"The guys you play against at the higher levels are much better hitters and much more patient. I’ve learned that you need to command the strike zone. That’s what I struggled with in Triple-A this past year. The hitters have a better sense of the strike zone and aren’t swinging at borderline pitches, so you need to command your pitches and get ahead. I’ve always thrown high in the strike zone, and I’m working on throwing the ball down and then climbing up the ladder when I need to."

     There's the problem, despite having below average fastball velocity, Leathersich still loves to use the upper half of the strike zone. This allows his deceptive delivery to be that much more effective as his "slower" fastball and get on a batter quickly. Here's where we drop some Science on everyone....In humid environments, the air is actually lighter than normal dry air. That's because H20 molecules are lighter than the O2 and N2 molecules found in normal air. This causes less "drag" on a baseball allowing it to travel farther in flight and in Leathersich case....stay up rather than gravity dragging the pitch down. So every time Leather Rocket is trying to climb the ladder, the pitch goes too high and is a ball....every time he aims low in the strike zone, the pitch stays up right in the batters wheelhouse. If you don't have natural side to side movement, like Noah Syndergaard does, it's almost like you have to "aim" to throw a ball down in order to get strikes.....something that is awful to do for development purposes.

     Because of this phenomenon, I personally think Leathersich is a candidate to jump straight from AA to the MLB. Make no mistake, he's MLB ready right now. The only thing preventing him from being on the team is the fact that despite being a Lefty, he actually carries reverse platoon splits and is more effective against right handed batters. He'll be second in line, behind Cory Mazzoni, to replace anyone in the MLB bullpen in case of injury.

Ceiling: MLB High Leverage Strike Out Machine RP (Brad Boxberger)

Floor: MLB Medium Leverage Strike Out Machine RP

Anticipated Assignment: (AAA) Las Vegas Bullpen.

MMs Top 25: #18 OF Cesar Puello

#18 OF Cesar Puello (LR: #11)

Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6' 2" Weight: 220 lb

Age: 24
Acquired: 2007 International Signing, $400,000 signing bonus, La Romana, Dominican Republic

2014: (AAA) .252/.355/.393, 7 HR, 37 RBI, 13 SB (93%), 30 BB, 72 K
2013: (AA) .326/.403/.547, 16 HR, 73 RBI, 24 SB (77%), 28 BB, 82 K
2012: (A+) .260/.328/.423, 4 HR, 21 RBI, 19 SB (90%), 7 BB, 58 K
2011: (A+) .279/.330/.405, 10 HR, 50 RBI, 19 SB (68%), 18 BB, 103 K
2010: (A) .292/.375/.359, 1 HR, 34 RBI, 45 SB (82%), 32 BB, 82 K

     Oh my.....what are we suppose to do about Cesar Puello. He has been one of the most talked about situations this off-season due to the odd predicament the Mets find themselves in. Puello became eligible for his 1st Rule 5 draft after a pretty decent 2011 season production wise. At the time though, he was only in Advanced A Port St. Lucie and was considered a low risk to be selected in the Major League Phase. The Mets front office added him to the 40 man roster anyway to protect him. Three years later, with all 3 option assignments burned, Puello now finds himself potentially participating in his final spring training with the club.

     As a former Top 100 prospect, Puello has a number of plus tools that teams would be interested in. He has a pretty strong hit tool that consistently puts the ball in play, but, since he does not take many walks, his batting average can fluctuate due to its dependency on his BABIP. He also has that rare combination of power + speed. his 2013 Binghamton season proved out to team that he has the potential to be a 20 HR/20 SB guy over a full season of healthy play. He's got pretty good defensive skills too. Although he has enough range to stick in CF, he carries a monster strong "70 grade" arm that's more valuable in RF. His above average glovework, range, and arm, makes him a plus defender (potentially plus plus "70"), in RF.

     That's 5 average to above average tools folks....A 5-tool player. Here's the thing though, having the tools and utilizing them are 2 completely different stories. After being suspended the remainder of the 2013 for his involvement with Biogenesis, his 2014 season did not help reinforce scouts and executives faith that he will eventually pull the whole package together like he did before his suspension in Binghamton. Puello was the starting RF in 16 of the first 21 Las Vegas games and was just not very good. He hit .244 with 0 HR, 2 SB, and K'd in 24% of his Plate Appearances. This led to him losing playing time to Brandon Allen and Andrew Brown, both of which had monster April, in the month of May. He was given opportunities to start in short 4 to 5 games bursts and found his swing again hitting .291 with a .863 OPS with more BB's (7) than K's (5) but as soon as the club gave him an extended starting run again in June he faltered once again hitting only .137 AVG.

    The continued inconsistencies has frustrated the front office enough that he's no longer viewed as a potential future team contributor. It doesn't help either that he has developed extremely stark L/R splits as he obliterated lefties to the tune of a .942 OPS but was lackluster against righties with a .647 OPS. Even his winter league team, the Toros del Este, recognized how severe the splits were and started him mostly only against lefties.
While I personally am a huge supporter of Puello, we need to take this into account when evaluating him. So, unfortunately, we have to drop his ceiling and drop his floor, which in turn, has severely impacted his ranking. While I hate to say it, I do not believe that Puello will make the team out of Spring Training and another club is bound to give him the oppotunity that the Mets are refusing to give.
     

Ceiling: MLB Platoon Starting RF (John Mayberry Jr.)
Floor: MLB 5th OF....on another team
Anticipated Assignment: Waivers...with another team claiming him April 1st