Paul Articulates - One for three

Billy Wagner made the hall of fame this week.  Carlos Beltran did not.  Neither did David Wright.

Three great baseball players, all of whom wore a Mets uniform for at least part of their careers.  The news broke Tuesday, and there were few surprises.  In my opinion, Billy deserved it and should have gotten in last year.  Let’s look at all three players.

Billy Wagner had a remarkable career as a relief pitcher.  He was listed at 5’10” but that may have been in platform shoes.  The small stature was no measure of this man, who was absolutely dominant on the mound.  Well before our current era of max effort, max velocity pitchers, Wagner was a flame thrower.  

He began his career in Houston, where he saved 225 games over nine seasons.  He made the all-star team three times over that span.  Although he has not yet announced which cap he will wear for his HOF bust, I would guess that it would be the Astros cap because that is where his star was born.  

After leaving the Astros, Wagner had impactful seasons for the Phillies and the Mets.  He gained all-star berths once in Philadelphia and twice more in New York. 

 As a Met, he delivered 101 saves in 118 opportunities in the 2006, 2007, and 2008 seasons when the team was very competitive and needed every one of those saves.  For his career, he pitched to a 2.31 ERA with 1196 strikeouts in 903 innings pitched.  His WHIP was 1.00.  Amazing!  

He was proof that you could throw hard without missing the strike zone as he had only 300 walks during that span.   I am sure that many Mets fans will flock to Cooperstown this summer to watch his induction ceremony.

Carlos Beltran was one of the greatest switch hitters of his generation.  He was a multi-tool player that could cover center field better than his peers.  Beltran slammed 435 home runs and finished his career with a .836 OPS over 2,586 games.  His fame spanned 20 years, mostly with Kansas City and the Mets, although he will also be remembered for his incredible playoff performance with the Astros in 2004.  

He also played for the Astros on their 2017 World Series championship team where unfortunately he was part of the cheating scandal that has caused the writers to pause before voting him into the hall of fame.  He still has an opportunity to enter the Hall, and will be on next year’s ballot.  Beltran has 149 homers and five selections to the NL All-Star team with the Mets.  

He was a pivotal player in the Mets’ 2006 season, his finest as a Met.  Despite a heroic season that saw him land fourth in the MVP voting, Carlos is unfairly remembered for being frozen at the plate on an Adam Wainwright 0-2 curveball with the bases loaded in the ninth inning of game 7 of the NLCS.  I believe that the baseball writers will eventually send Carlos Beltran to the HOF.  Just not yet.

David Wright is one of the most revered players in Mets’ history.  His career line of .296/.376/.491 is hall-of-fame worthy, but he is hampered by an injury-shortened career that did not allow him to amass the quantity of hits/runs/HRs that is typical of HOF inductees.  Wright was not only a superb third baseman with a powerful bat.  He was the face of the Mets, who handled the New York media like few others.  

In the face of adversity from either his injuries or tough streaks by the team, he was always very positive and complementary to his teammates and manager.  David was the fourth captain on the Mets (Hernandez, Carter, Franco), serving in that role from 2013-2018.  Wright will have his number retired this summer at a special ceremony at Citi Field on July 19th.    

Wright has remained engaged with the team since he retired from baseball, serving as a spring training instructor and consultant.  Mets fans would certainly all vote for Wright to join the stars in Cooperstown, but it is not a clear path.

The LTJ Editorial: “Have we truly seen the last of Johan Santana?”

“The LTJ Editorial”
Author: Luis Tirado Jr.
Date: 11-8-13
Twitter: @LTJ81
Website: http://www.TheNYExpress.com

“Have we truly seen the last of Johan Santana?”

All through my life, I've always enjoyed getting the sports jersey of my favorite players on the various teams I root for. Yeah, it's no secret, while I do cover both the New York Yankees and New York Mets, deep inside my heart, I love my Mets. Ever since 1986 when I saw the World Series trophy in the hands of guys like Strawberry, Hernandez, Gooden, etc when I was about 5 years old, I was hooked on this team. That image to this day is burned into my memory, it's the last time I ever saw any of my teams actually win a championship that I can remember. These past few years have been rough on a diehard Mets fan like me but we have our moments here and there. One amazing memory that is actually up there with that '86 championship to a degree, was the first ever no-hitter in Mets history. I'll never forget back on June 1^st, 2012 when for the first time in team history, the New York Mets FINALLY achieved a no-hitter. I watched every inning that game getting goosebumps with every successful out leading to the 9^th inning. Once it finally happened, I knew that the player who ended up bringing that elusive no-hitter to the Mets would be immortalized forever. Of course it went to one of my favorite players on the team, Starting Pitcher Johan Santana.

Some say the decision Manager Terry Collins made to keep Santana in that game potentially led to the shoulder issues that nagged him thereafter. He re-tore his shoulder capsule going into this past MLB season and ultimately needed season-ending surgery that technically stemmed from that perfect game. He missed the entire season and being at the age of 34 years old, everyone wondered if he would ever be the same again. A few weeks ago, the Mets had the decision to pick up his team option or decline it. The team ultimately made the decision to not bring him back. At the time of this editorial, he will be testing the free agency market. There is a possibility he will return to the Mets if no interesting offers are presented from other teams. There is also talk he might be presented with a new deal by the Mets that is incentive based since he is coming off surgery and a year away from MLB. It’s the first time in his career Santana will be a free agent so this is all new to him as well as Mets fans seeing his name there.

When you look at the big picture, many questions need to be answered. Can Santana be effective as a starter again next year? Since he's towards the last leg of his solid career, would there be a chance he would change pitching positions? Maybe converting to a Relief Pitcher or even a Closing Pitcher at this point of his career? Of course the big elephant in the room is would the Mets make some kind of offer to bring him back since we are down an ace? We all know Starting Pitcher Matt Harvey will be out for all of the 2014 MLB season due to Tommy John Surgery on his throwing shoulder so we have a spot open. Would it make sense to bring back an established ace to fill the void without Harvey?

Let's try to dissect all this for a moment.

In the long-term sense, bringing back Santana would be a mistake. For the short-term idea of things, perhaps a simple one-year deal as insurance would be ideal for the Mets. I still think though, this could truly have been the last time we've seen Santana wear a Mets uniform and I'll explain why. We all know the Owners of the Mets, the Wilpons, have made it quite clear they want to bring in some top notch talent to the team to make a quality season out of 2014. They want great pitching, solid defense, hard-hitting players, and gradually mix in their young amazing prospects into the majors. The Mets farm system is one of the best in baseball, especially with pitchers. The Wilpons want to make the organization and its fans know the “youth movement” is coming, no more memories of aging superstars eating away at the finances of the team. No more old players just standing around being unproductive or way past their prime. The key is to upgrade areas with established productive players through the free agency and build from within. Sadly, a player like Santana doesn't fit this criteria anymore when you think about it. He's coming off an entire year of no baseball activity and off of back to back major shoulder surgeries. It's more than likely he's seen his better days and for the Mets to bring him back would be a setback. It would seem like they're just bringing him back for namesake purposes and not for the benefit of the long-term big picture. Sure, there is that slight chance he will return and be decent but history shows that most players don't after these circumstances. They come back and easily require a few more years of re-learning the mechanics and techniques of what made them originally famous. It's not easy to say the least.

It's sad that Santana's final moments with the Mets ended this way. I don't see him returning to the team and he will end up playing somewhere else battling struggles to keep up with everything. I'll always be grateful for his contributions to the Mets as well as finally bringing that no-hitter to this franchise. I finally got to witness something other than a championship that will be remembered for generations to come. Santana pitched that in Citi Field too, you can't put a price on how awesome it all was.

The first Mets jersey I ever bought was back in 2008. When it comes to jerseys, I always take my time and think about who I want to represent. Sure, I could have easily got one of David Wright, Jose Reyes, or even Carlos Beltran since they were all awesome at the time. Something told me though, I had to get the jersey of a true warrior. Someone who exemplified greatness and extraordinary skill. A baseball player who fascinated me every single time I saw them play this sport I love so much.

I went with #57.

Mack Ade – Morning Report – 10-7-13 – Binghamton, Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, 40-Man, Kevin Plawecki

 

Adam Rubin –

                The long-reported potential move of the Double-A Binghamton Mets to Ottawa has received what appears to be its final death knell. Ottawa’s Finance and Economic Development Committee has shifted its attention from a prospective Double-A team to an independent league team, according to a published report in Canada.

                                Mack – This is very good news. You want the Mets AA and AAA teams as physically close to Queens as you can get them. The Mets need to everything they can to keep the powers to be in Binghamton happy. In addition, I hope back channels are being developed between Syracuse and the Mets to hopefully become their AAA affiliate after the 2014 contract runs out with airless Las Vegas. Mets minor leaguers are supposed to be freezing their balls off in April, not doubling down on the strip.

 

Carlos Beltran on Mets –

                “Maybe I’ll see you, maybe I won’t. I’m going to listen to everybody and we’ll see what happens. I have nothing against them. I would say that was unfortunate to go through that whole thing with my surgery, but I’m pretty good in letting things go.”

                                Mack – Beltran is saying all the right things for a guy that could go into the Hall of Fame someday as a Met. He was always a misunderstood Met and I was there first hand for three spring trainings, including the one where he took charge of his only rehab program on his knee. The Mets wanted him to move faster and he would have nothing to do with it. Beltran is a pro’s pro who knew his body better than any Met doctor they threw at him. He also never reacted to that last at bat where fans castrated him for not taking the bat off his shoulder. He thought it was a ball and he’s do the same thing again. I think there is a good chance you could see both him and Marlon Byrd for two-year contracts here to ehlp calm things down while this team still tries to figure out who is going to play in their outfield in 2016 (right wo, my guess would be Dustin Lawley, and elevated Brandon Nimmo, and Cesar Puelo, baring any additional top notched purchase.

 

Joe D –

                Will The Mets Consider A Reunion With Jose Reyes?

                                Mack –Get off of this.  This is a dead horse being dug up and beaten. He bought a home on Long Island for the school, and he loves the pizza there. This ship has passed… this had as much accuracy as the premature moving of the Binghamton franchise.  I’m not a big fan of speculative’ posting like ‘the Mets should…’. It makes for ‘hits’ and nothing more.

 

Brian Joura’s  40-man –

                Pitchers (18) – Vic Black, deGrom, Edgin, Jeurys Familia, Gee, Gonzalez Germen, Gorski, Harvey, Hefner, Matz, Mejia, Jonathon Niese, Parnell, Rice, Hansel Robles, Carlos Torres, Walters and Zack Wheeler.

Catchers (2) – Juan Centeno, Travis d’Arnaud

Infielders (12) – Davis, Duda, Wilmer Flores, Zach Lutz, Murphy, Quintanilla, Rodriguez, Satin, Tejada, Turner, Wilfredo Tovar and David Wright

Outfielders (7) – Baxter, Andrew Brown, Matt den Dekker, Juan Lagares, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Cesar Puello, Young. - http://mets360.com/?p=19242

                Mack – This is a good start. I would add Luis Cessa and Miller Diaz, who are eligible for the Rule V draft. Frankly, I would take off Robles who hasn’t developed… I hope at least one of the first basemen are gone and we can come up with someone better than Quintanilla before the season starts. I simply hate the outfield.

 

Ed Coleman –

                Harvey’s decision also impacts the wealth of young pitching that the Mets have in reserve. Trading away some of those “chips” to fill other holes the team has now probably becomes prohibitive. Alderson was always reluctant to go this course, but now seems even less likely to do so. http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2013/10/06/coleman-alderson-has-decisions-to-make-in-the-absence-of-harvey-next-season/

                Mack – It looks like all the Mets brass and beat reporters are finally agreeing on one thing… the solution to the Mets problems is not to start prematurely trading away the young pitchers in the system to fill the holes in the lineup. We all saw the injuries last year… Mejia…Hefner… Harvey… etc. We can’t expect the Mets staff to have an injury free season in 2014. However… what I do expect is the timetable on both Rafael Montero and Noah Syndergaard to speed up a little, especially if they have a hot April and May in Las Vegas. I’ve said it a 1000 times… this team gets to the playoffs with pitching and an after all-star game rotation of Wheeler, Niese, Gee, Syndergaard, and Montero, with Mejia, Familia, Black, Parnell, deGrom, Germen heading up the pen. A staff like this can produce an awful lot of wins if you get them a few more runs than you did this year.

 

Michael Lecolant -

The Mets may have struck pay dirt though, with their number one 2012 compensation pick.  With the thirty-fifth overall selection, the Mets opted for a more polished college catcher, Kevin Plawecki.  After two full seasons playing for Brooklyn, Savannah and PSL, Plawecki, 22, boasts a .278 average in 665 total at-bats, forty-six doubles, fifteen home runs, 107 runs batted in, and a .376 OBP.  He finished the 2013 season with a combined .390 OBP and .305 batting average in 449 at-bats, with thirty-eight doubles and eighty runs batted in. http://risingapple.com/2013/10/06/the-unlucky-process-of-rebuilding-through-the-draft/

                Mack – 2014 will be a critical year for both Plawecki and Travis d’Arnaud. Normally, I would say that someone as talented as Plawecki would be trade bait being directly behind such a projected talent like d’Arnaud, but this does not take into accord the dreaded injury bug that seems to have hit Darno throughout his career. I’m not sure where Plawecki will open the season but he will make his bones in Binghamton this year. Past that, the future of Mets catching looks very bright.

 

John Stubel –

                Vic Black, LaTroy Hawkins, Aaron Harang, Carlos Torres, Jeremy Hefner, Ike Davis, Diasuke Matsuzaka and Lucas Duda are not the answer. To win, and be competitive enough to win a division or play in the post season, Alderson knows the Mets will need more than parts and pieces. The good news is the Mets will "monitor the opportunities in the marketplace factor those in within a budget," according to Alderson. Let me translate: manage your expectations this off-season. For example, will Robinson Cano's name come up at organizational strategy meetings scheduled this week in Port St. Lucie? No. “We’d be in a position to do it, whether it were the right player,” Alderson said last week. “But would it be prudent to do it, even for the right player. It’s not out of the question. Will we do it, that is more of a strategic question, not a matter of resources.” Read that quote again -- carefully. Alderson already answered the question, Whether it's Cano, or Jacoby Ellsbury, Shin-Soo Choo, Matt Garza or Bronson Arroyo, the answer is no. "...would it be prudent to do it, even for the right player," said Alderson. Do you know what prudent means? Here, I'll save you some time: Prudent is acting with or showing care and thought for the future. It appears that with Harvey on the shelf, subsequently, so is the Mets future. http://johnstrubel.com/harvey-surgery-will-impact-mets-plans/

                Mack – I know John. He designed one of my blogs. I also consider him one of the most intelligent and informed Mets bloggers out there. Read what he said again. Here’s your 2014 folks.

 

Tyler Kepner -

When the Mets put Marlon Byrd’s name on the wire, Huntington pounced, hoping that a team with a worse record would not claim him first. Nobody did, and the Pirates sent reliever Vic Black and a Class A infielder to the Mets for Byrd and John Buck on Aug. 27. Four days later, Huntington shipped two more players to Minnesota for first baseman Justin Morneau. For Byrd, who hit a combined .291 with 24 home runs for the Mets and Pittsburgh, this season has been as exhilarating as last season was sobering. In 47 games with the Chicago Cubs and the Boston Red Sox, he hit .210 with one homer. He also served a 50-game suspension for testing positive for tamoxifen, a banned substance. Byrd has explained that he took Nolvadex, a medication to control gynecomastia, the enlargement of breast tissues in males. The condition can be caused by steroid use, but Byrd said he did not know why he had it. He told Newsday that he did not know Nolvadex contained tamoxifen. “It was me not doing my homework,” he said. http://www.nytimes.com/2013/10/07/sports/baseball/pirates-willing-to-be-stupid-made-smart-midseason-moves.html?partner=rss&emc=rss&_r=1&

                Mack – taking something to try to eliminate male breasts sure sounds like steroids to me… still. 2013 looks to be drug free and let’s give the guy a tip of the hat for a great season that, for him, is still going on. I’ll take him back in a heart beat.

 

Rob Rogan -

Nieuwenhuis’ future with the team is in serious question at this point. The expectation is that the Mets will look to upgrade the corner outfield spots this off-season. Assuming they do, and with Young and Lagares on the roster, it seems that Nieuwenhuis will be a long shot to make the major league roster next season. The presence of Matt den Dekker and the looming AAA arrival of Cesar Puello further cloud his future. The fact that he was not promoted in September when rosters expanded is surely a bad sign as well, and he will most likely remain in AAA as outfield depth moving forward. http://mets360.com/?p=19247

                Mack – 2013 just didn’t work out well for the Captain, who obvious never stood a chance under Terry Collins of becoming the everyday centerfielder. He had only nine, I repeat, nine plate appearances the entire year against lefties. You can’t turn around bad numbers unless you get plate appearances and it looks like the chances for Nieuwenhuis have gone away. Centerfield, at worst, in 2014 will be a platoon with den Dekker and Juan Lagares. For now, I expect the Captain to be a mainstay in Las Vegas, though he could lose a starting job to the trio of Puello, Darrell Cecilliani, and Dustin Lawley.

Mack Ade – Morning Report – 6-26-13 – Carlos Beltran, Cesar Puello, Erik Goeddel, Angel Pagan, Tim Dierkes, Noah Syndergaard

Not the best nights for Mets pitching prospects. Both Zack Wheeler (Mets) and Rafael Montero (Las Vegas) forgot their main objective and that is to set up the game by pounding the zone with the fastball early in the game. It was nice to see Wheeler's curveball, but it was naked in the wind, especially since it seem like he was telegraphing the pitching by slowing down his delivery when he through it. Montero, on the other hand, just stunk up the place, giving up four runs in the first three innings. 

Let's chalk these up as their worse outings and take it from there. You know how important the future of this team sits on their right hand shoulder.

Andrew Vazzano ‏@AVSNY  - @RisingAppleBlog: The Mets should seriously consider signing Carlos Beltran after the season. Makes all the sense in the world.

                I hate when I start thinking the same as some of the Mets bloggers out there J

You all know I like this idea, especially if they can’t find themselves a long term solution for their three outfielder problems. A less talented version of this is in Queens right now… Marlin Byrd, and he, Juan Lagares, and Eric Young have helped stop the bleeding with a tight bandage. Beltran can give you one more solid year, slotted in between David Wright and Ike Davis in the lineup (think Wright, Beltran, Davis, d-Arnaud, Lucas Duda).

Look, it’s baby steps, but it’s a little bit better than today… which was a little bit better than (before Young) last month. 

Ted Berg ‏@OGTedBerg -  I asked Pedro Martinez, most dominant starter ever, about the most impressive pitchers he's seen this year. First name he said: Matt Harvey.

OF Cesar Puello - .338/.407/.616, 14-HR, 51-RBI through  58 games

This is about as good as you are going to get in the AA league. The AA all-star game is July 10^th and I’m sure he will ship out to Las Vegas the following day. Is there a chance he comes to Queens instead? No, right now the outfield is going to have to adjust first to the return of Ike Davis (probably this weekend) to first base. It is interesting though that he’s been playing more CF lately. Helps the marketing department.

Rich Coutinho ‏@coutinho9  - Marlon Byrd 10/35/.263, Justin Upton 15/34/.240, Ryan zimm 9/36/.269  Laroche 10/32/.251

RHP Erik Goeddel – 7-2, 3.72, 14-ST, 77.1-IP, 76-K, 28-BB

This is a guy no one ever talks about anymore. We’re all a little Harvey, Wheeler, Montero, and Syndergaard crazy, but, if these four weren’t in the system we’d be calling Goeddel a prospect. He’s also blocked out from AAA philosophy that sort of looks out of control. Would someone try and explain to me the future need of having D.J. Mitchell or Giancarlo Alvarado preventing a guy like Goeddel from elevation. Let’s write this off as another move that will happen the day after the all-star break. After that, there is no excuse.

Angel Pagan will have surgery to repair his torn hamstring, Giants manager Bruce Bochy announced. Out 12 weeks

Okay, we have some trading history here that has benefited each team and, frankly, the Giants did much better here what with both Beltran and Pagan for a nobody and a prospect just getting going.

Now, the least they need (for the rest of this season) is a good speedy defensive centerfielder that can lead off, not kick the ball around, OBP around .325 and steal a few bases. Insert either Juan Lagares or Eric Young Jr. or consider Marlon Byrd as well.

Gregor Blanco, Andres Torres and Juan Perez will be the starters and their two top prospects, Roger Kieschnick and Gary Brown have not been called up.

I would gladly take one of the two off their hands for their pick of our outfielders, including Lucas Duda.

Tim Dierkes -

MLBTR http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/06/analyzing-the-free-agent-starters.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter outlined the best of the 2014 free agent pitchers out there:

                        Innings eater – Bronson Arroyo, Hiroki Kuroda

                        Hardest Throwers – Jason Hammel, Josh Johnson, Matt Garza

                        Best Control – Bartolo Colon, Erwin Santana, Dan Haren

                        Extreme Ground Ballers – Chien-Ming Wang, Jake Westbrook, Tim Hudson, Phil Hughes

                        Low opponent BA – Jason Marquis

                        Lowest ERA – Santana (2.64), Kuroda, Colon

Folks, I’m not thrilled with spending a ton of money on any of them. I think the system is producing the future rotation of this team through 2020. The money needs to be spent on every day players, either through free agency, International signing that will hopefully pan out down the road, and trades for some of the young pitchers the Mets will never use.

A perfect example is a guy that we wrote about earlier in this piece. Erik Goeddel should be able to get you a quality AA prospect ready to move into AAA, either as an outfielder, or a shortstop.

 Jonathan Mayo on Noah Syndergaard –

“He could end up being the best player in the deal, though it may take more time for him to develop.”

He also ranked him 23^rd today on the new updated Baseball America Top 50 Prospects (Travis d-Arnaud was #28). Mayo also is on paper last December saying that Thor was ‘ahead’ of Zack Wheeler was at at the same time. I love all this… Thor ahead of Wheeler who was ahead of Harvey.

More Stuff - Shaun Marcum, Zack Wheeler, Zach Lutz, Carlos Beltran, Michael Bourn

Shaun Marcum –

“My main reason in my interest in the Mets was an opportunity to go out & make 30 starts and my ties with JP Ricciardi. I talked to David Wright and John Buck. Buck was my catcher in 2010 when I had my best year. I have a comfort level with Buck. This is a place I like. They gave me a chance. The way I feel right now, I'm looking forward to getting the ball rolling."

Zack Wheeler –

“Naturally, I hope I could make the team. But, I’m prepared to pitch wherever they send me… I just hope to put up some good numbers this spring and show them what I can do.”

 Rob Castellano

3B Zach Lutz - The 26-year-old showed, once again, that he can hit in 2012. In fact, it was the third straight season he posted an OPS at or near .900 at Triple-A Buffalo, showcasing what's become a familiar mix of power, patience, and raw hitting ability. Yet, the problem, as always, is that no matter how much he hits he's blocked by David Wright. What's more, his bulky frame doesn't profile anywhere else but first -- where he's also blocked. However, the Mets severe dearth of right-handed pop means Lutz will apparently get reps in the outfield this spring. He should hit if given the opportunity, the only question is whether the shoddy defense is worth the bat -- and if/when the Mets get desperate we'll likely find out. Additionally, a lot of the same can be said for the similarly road blocked Josh Satin, though with less pop in his bat.

Like Josh Satin, Lutz has spent his entire Mets career blocked and yet neither of the two were picked in the Rule 5 Draft. In the case of Lutz, he’s had every unlucky injury imaginable. It’s simply too late for him to be converted to an outfielder and the shame is that another great minor league bat was wasted.

Danny Abriano

Carlos Beltran- Yes, Carlos Beltran.  The player who many fans blame for the Mets not making the World Series in 2006.  The guy who won Game 1 of the NLCS by himself, but had the gall to be unable to hit an un-hittable curveball in the 9th inning of Game 7.  The best all around outfielder the Mets ever had.  Beltran will be 37 heading into 2014, but is still very productive.  He’s no longer elite defensively, but his offensive game is still there.  He hit .269 with 32 home runs and 97 RBI’s for St Louis last year, and should be available for a reasonable one or two year deal after this season.  If his 2013 resembles his 2012, the Mets should ponder bringing him back as a second piece that complements the addition of either Ellsbury, Gomez, or Choo.

This is what we call “reaching” during a period when you’ve run out of things to write about. I love Beltran, but his days in New York are over. Well, maybe I shouldn’t say that. He would fit in, age wise, perfectly with the Yankees.

Chris Cwik

Overall, those numbers don’t bode well for Michael Bourn. If there is a silver lining, however, it’s that the players who were able to maintain or improve on their stolen base rates over the next three seasons were the ones that received a lot of playing time. That does give some hope that Bourn might lucky enough to maintain his skills over the next three years. Giving Bourn a five-year deal would be a tough pill to swallow. The decline rate for these players is high enough in their early thirties, but it really jumps once they hit 33 or 34. Bourn had the most stolen bases of any player included in this study, which is another reason for optimism, at least in the short run. But the risk with speedy players is very real as they get into their 30s. The Mets are wise to be cautious in this scenario.

I think even Scott Boras is beginning to realize that his client isn’t going to get a 5-year deal. It’s simply too late in both the off-season process and the age of his client. Look for an opt-out one-year deal to develop that could result in a team getting back a 2^nd round draft pick in 2014 after losing a first round pick in 2013. Now, all you have to do is find someone that wants this dude for only one year.

Head of Surgery and Psychiatry: Sandy Alderson

By - Jarod Alley               

In a perfect world the New York Mets would be annual competitors in the playoff picture, harvesting young talent and spending their free agent dollars on the most premier talent. Reality though has held a different fate for our lovable losers. We’ve been through multiple questionable trades, reckless free agent spending, a sapped farm system, over exaggerated major league rosters, seasons filled with injuries, an ongoing financial dispute and three different coaches. All of this happened within the last 10 years.

                Yeah, it is tough being a Met fan sometimes, but it’s also tough not to like the Wilpons decision in hiring Sandy Alderson to reign in a team that was looking like it was going to take a very long downward spiral. Even if he were forced upon Fred and Jeff by Bud Selig and Major League Baseball, Sandy has been very efficient in re-structuring the seemingly fractured parts and pieces of this team. True, he did let Jose Reyes walk almost without much dialogue but how many of you would have guaranteed Jose…Jose, Jose, Jose  that kind of contract? I know I wouldn’t. Without a solid pitching staff the retention of Reyes combined with Wright, Davis, Murphy and question marks at other positions would seem like a major gamble to put together a World Series caliber team.

           

     One can hardly argue with some of the other decisions he has made too. He’s been signing guys that are very much low risk high reward guys to stitch up vacancies on the team. Last year we saw the resurgent Isringhausen and durable Capuano perform above and beyond expectations both on salaries that amounted to roughly 2.5 million, combined. Also, for the first time in as long as I can remember our Rule 5 draft pick ended up being a very serviceable arm in our bullpen. While Pedro Beato wasn’t a complete success he still proved to be a useful piece out of the bullpen and will be back with the organization since they were able to keep him on the roster all of last year.

                In regards to the minors he’s been active to shape it to his liking as well. Trading Carlos Beltran mid-year for a top pitching prospect in Zack Wheeler helped to gain favor with fans by adding a young phenom arm to go along with Matt Harvey.  In years past the Omar Minaya regime would have clung to their expiring contracts with little hope of making a push into the playoffs thus leaving the club without any return on investment. Instead last year Sandy let Reyes walk saving major cash and gaining an additional draft pick along with the midseason acquisition of Wheeler; two moves that should h elp strengthen a middling minor league system.

                While many of his decisions won’t be known to be truly successful until the next 5-10 years, he has created an environment where competence is not as easily questioned. I for one hope his disinfecting, stitching, splinting and overall medication proves to be the elixir the Mets have been looking for to make this team successful not just in the now but for the foreseeable future as well.

Mets: Off-Season, Michael Bloomberg, Carlos Beltran, Ike Davis

The current off-season — which featured acquisitions like Rob Johnson, a catcher and defensive specialist who signed a minor league contract, and Ronny Cedeno, a journeyman shortstop who received a one-year deal worth $1.15 million — has essentially been more of the same.  Notably, reliever Jon Rauch got a one-year contract for $3.5 million and Francisco, in only the second multiyear deal of Alderson’s tenure, got $12 million for two seasons, which, by current Mets standards, is Albert Pujols money. “They’ve been in a bottom-feeding mode when it comes to the free-agent market,” said Phillips, who is now a host on SiriusXM’s Mad Dog Radio channel. “They are trying to catch that lightning in a bottle, that diamond in the rough.”  http://www.nytimes.com/2012/02/09/sports/baseball/alderson-is-forced-to-remake-mets-on-the-cheap.html

As a billionaire, Mayor Michael Bloomberg could afford to buy the Mets. But that's one job that he's not looking to step into after he leaves City Hall. The mayor was asked by a reporter on Wednesday if he'd be interested in buying the team. Bloomberg said he enjoys attending the Mets' games, but he can't figure out "why anybody wants to own a sports team." He says he already faces tough scrutiny from the press without owning a team. WSJ

Cardinals Sign Carlos Beltran for 2/$26M - Losing Albert Pujols hurts, but adding Beltran and shifting Lance Berkman back to first base will cushion the blow and help keep the Cardinals right in the thick of things in the NL Central. The combination of Beltran’s offense and the upgrade on defense by getting Berkman out of the outfield will allow the team to replace most of what Pujols gave them on the field last year, and the fact that it only required a two year deal to land a premium hitter to replace Pujols keeps the team in position to stay competitive for the long term as well. Like with Reyes and Oswalt, there are durability concerns, but the price tag is so low that Beltran could spend weeks on the DL and still easily earn his salary. The Cardinals could have had a disastrous off-season, but they smartly targeted Beltran after Pujols left for Los Angeles, and with the moves they made, the defending champs may even have a better team next year than they did in 2011. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-10-best-transactions-of-the-winter/

Possible Breakout: Ike Davis, 1B - I remember there being some doubt and some polarizing opinions on Ike Davis as a prospect. Some people loved him at the plate, others thought he'd struggle to hit in the majors. He quelled many doubters as a rookie, hitting .264/.351/.440 with 19 HR, 71 RBI over 601 PA's in 2010. He seemed to be on his way to a breakout in 2011 and hit .302/.383/.543 with 7 HR and 25 RBI over 36 games until a collision with Wright forced him to roll his ankle and miss the rest of the season. Concerns with Davis include a strikeout rate that is regularly over 20%, while he was only walking in 11.4% of his at-bats last year. The best way to overcome a high strikeout rate is by walking and hitting for power, and Davis posted a .240 ISO last year compared to a .176 ISO as a rookie. If he can maintain an ISO over .220, he should be just fine and be a worth fantasy first baseman that could drive in 100 runs. Best Guess: .290/.365/.500, 20 HR, 100 RBI, 85 R. http://www.faketeams.com/2012/2/6/2775041/fantasy-baseball-spotlight-new-york-mets

Mets: Luis Mateo, Ike Davis, Daniel Murphy, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado

1-23-12 - http://www.amazinavenue.com/2012/1/23/2693134/2012-amazin-avenue-top-50-mets-prospects  #43) RHP Luis Mateo - Mateo was originally signed by the Giants but failed his physical. He rehabbed, then signed with San Diego...but that also fell through when MLB suspended him for lying about his age. Regardless, the Mets stayed on him and ended up paying only $150k for a kid who has a seriously big arm. Though he's 21 -- not 19 -- he still tops out at 97mph with a sharp slider and gets great downward action thanks to a long, athletic 6'3" frame. And look at those results: Five walks in 63 innings. Seriously? And 80 K's? That's nuts from a kid with his stuff making his pro debut. Yes he may have been a little old for the DSL, but with a top-flight pedigree and the stuff to match there's reason to be excited about a potential steal here. Get ready to hear this name a lot more this year, he could fly up this list in 2012. Why He's Here: Fellow Dominican righty Rafael Montero may have gotten more ink this season -- jumping all the way up to Brooklyn during their playoff run and earning the final spot in BA's top 20 in the GCL. But to me, Mateo's extended -- and incredible -- performance in the DSL wasn't far behind Montero's excellent 2011. Add in a couple more ticks on the fastball, a better pitcher's build and a better pedigree and Brooklyn or not, I'm more taken with Mateo going forward. Tempting to rank both guys higher on this list based on some outstanding numbers but I'm waiting for results against age-appropriate competition before I really get excited.

 Prince Fielder is one of the best players in all of baseball, so him being the best first baseman in the NL Easts should come at no surprise. The projections love Ike Davis and the new dimensions at Citi Field should work in his favor. Gaby Sanchez is the starting first baseman for your Marlins. His standing in the NL East is the same as it would be in the MLB. He is a middle of the pact guy. He is not going to be a superstar ever, but is a very solid everyday player. I expected Freeman to be ahead of Sanchez, but the projections did not see the same thing. Ryan Howard is probably the second best first baseman in the NL East when he is 100% healthy. http://marlinmaniac.com/2012/01/24/nl-east-preview-2012-first-baseman/?utm_medium=twitter&utm_source=twitterfeed

So they’ll go with it.  And I think Daniel Murphy the second baseman — in January, at least — stands as perhaps the best metaphor we’ve got for the Mets’ 2012 season. In penciling Murphy in for second, the front office seems to be making the smartest possible move for a team with such limited resources. But it presents a great risk with the potential for a good reward. If it goes well and Murphy proves an adequate defensive second baseman, he’ll likely rank among the better players in the league at the position. But since he’ll probably never be as good as Dustin Pedroia was in 2011 on either side of the ball, the best possible outcome for Murphy — like the Mets — appears to be “very good.” http://www.tedquarters.net/2012/01/24/daniel-murphy-as-the-2012-mets/

At the B.A.T. dinner today in Manhattan, I mentioned to Carlos Beltran that, because of the 2006 NLCS, Mets fans might find it strange to see him a Cardinals uniform.  Was is weird for him, too -- or, as I suspected, was the 2006 season far from his mind while he looked for a fit for 2012? Here was his answer: “Actually, I’m not thinking about the fans, I’m thinking about myself. I’m thinking about my chances of being with the team.  Like I said, I just want to have the opportunity to be in the playoffs.  What happened in 2006, you have to turn the page.  That’s over.  We can’t bring 2006 back to 2012. It has been six years. If they want to continue to think about that moment, then that’s their problem.  Like I said, I have turned the page. I have really moved on.” http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/mets/2012/01/carlos-beltrans-interesting-quote

Carlos Delgado -  Even before 9/11, Carlos Delgado had shown himself to be a player unafraid to speak his mind, standing up against the U.S. Navy's history of testing weapons on the Puerto Rican island of Vieques by donating time, money, and his good name to calling attention to the issue. At a time when the US was in the throes of Iraq war jingoism, he openly criticized the war and, as a protest, refused to stand up for the forced patriotism of seventh-inning stretch renditions of "God Bless America"—a particular pet peeve of mine in post-9/11 Yankee Stadium—at a time when such displays were in vogue all around the major leagues. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15903

Mets: Elvin Ramirez, Syracuse Radio, Carlos Beltran, 2012 ERAs

Elvin Ramirez (RHP) Ramirez was the player taken from the Mets in the Rule 5 draft in December 2010, by the Washington Nationals. The 6’3″ righty from the Dominican Republic was throwing up to 97-98 mph last winter in the DWL, and despite a marginal breaking ball, the Nats had every intention of keeping Ramirez in their bullpen for the whole year, until he got hurt that is. A shoulder injury suffered in spring training required surgery on his throwing shoulder, and he was returned to the Mets late in the season. The word circulating about him now is that he is feeling good and could be ready to start the season on time. The Mets will use Ramirez out of the AAA Buffalo bullpen this season, and if he recovers without incidence and regains his velocity, he could be a valuable bullpen arm for the Mets down the road.

Does the Syracuse area have more Boston Red Sox fans or more New York Mets fans?  After carrying Sox baseball last season, ESPN Radio 97.7/100.1 (WTLA/WSGO) is now hedging its bets with Mets fans.  The station announced on Friday that it’ll be Syracuse’s radio home for the New York Mets this coming season. ESPN Radio CNY program director Chris McManus tells CNYRadio.com, “we’re thrilled to add New York baseball to our lineup. We know Mets fans in Central New York have been dying to hear their team for a long time.”  Even if one isn’t a Mets fan, McManus adds, “Howie Rose is as good as it gets in baseball play by play, so any baseball fan should enjoy this summer.” http://www.cnyradio.com/2012/01/15/espn-radio-cny-trades-red-sox-for-mets/

Two weeks later, he had a two-year, $26 million deal, a move that looks to be an ideal fit for the Cardinals and Carlos Beltran. The Cardinals are adding an impact bat to help recover from Pujols' departure and Beltran is getting his wish to play for a contender. He is expected to bat second and play right field, though he could move into the fourth or fifth spot in the order and see time in center. Such details don't matter that much to him. "I have hit second in the past," Beltran said Monday when he was introduced to St. Louis on the final day of the team's Winter Warmup. "I don't mind, honestly. I am just going to come to the ballpark every day prepared to play, and then wherever he needs me, I'll be there." http://aol.sportingnews.com/mlb/story/2012-01-16/new-cardinal-beltran-happy-to-be-playing-for-a-contender#ixzz1jf9vbQex

Of course, there's give and take with any fence-line alteration. ERAs could definitely be on the rise, especially for fly-ball heavy pitchers. Jonathan Niese, a strong breakout candidate (3.14 K/BB, 3.77 tERA in '11), Mike Pelfrey, R.A. Dickey and Dillon Gee shouldn't be too negatively impacted by the change. Each did a commendable job keeping balls in the park posting groundball rates well above 45.0 percent last year. However, Johan Santana, assuming he's healthy, could come down with a nasty case of gopheritis. During his last healthy season, 2010, the two-time Cy Young winner allowed 1.12 HR/9 at Citi Field. He also notched a skyward 0.75 GB/FB ratio with the Mets from '09-'10. If Johan doesn't regain his mystifying form, he could become a punching bag, even at home  http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/fantasy-roto-arcade/pressing-questions-york-mets-212418500.html

Frank Gray - Mets Must Avoid the Jose Reyes Syndrome with Wright

This past week David Wright went on Sirius XM as a guest of the Cliff Floyd/Mike Ferrin Show (I didn't even know they had one). During the show Wright was asked an obvious question: how he feels about the potential of being traded. His response?

"It's going to be a pain. I saw Jose Reyes everyday had to answer questions about trade rumors and what was going to happen to him. Frankly, it would be nice to not have to go through that but I'm going to do my best to answer those questions hopefully in spring training and not everyday have to answer to this rumor or that rumor. But I understand the business side of it. I understand what happens with players in my situation. I'm expecting it to, I guess, be some sort of issue."

This is a very telling quote. Wright knows from the experience of Jose Reyes how this team currently treats its' stars. The case of Reyes was a bit different, as he was clearly waiting for his payday (and who can blame him?), but Wright makes a valid point.

The fact is that the Mets caused Reyes to go through that barrage of questions every day. Wright is expecting them to do the same to him. And he's not looking forward to it. In fact, he is expecting it to get to him. Here's a guy that was so shaken by a new stadium that his power numbers dropped dramatically. Can you imagine how he will struggle this season amid trade rumors?

If the Mets love David Wright as much as they say they need to spare him this torture. It was just in May that Fred Wilpon said of Wright  he is "A really good kid, a very good player. Not a superstar." At face value that sounds like an insult, but it's not. Wilpon likes him. He says Wright is a good player and a really good kid. Does an owner that hates or is ripping his player normally say that?

If they like him, they may want to keep him. Mets GM Sandy Alderson twice has figuratively thrown him to the wolves already. Once in August when the Mets placed him on waivers and once last month when they put his name on the trading block.

Both times Alderson quickly retracted him. One can argue it was simply to gauge the interest in him from other teams. That is understandable, but how does that effect his psyche? Unlike Reyes, who was far too often injured, Wright is a player to build around.

Here is a player that has given his all for this team. He has played through pain, injury and bad years just to sacrifice for the greater good of the New York Mets. He loves this team. There is no doubt. He is a leader on and off the field. Both in the clubhouse and in the community. He is a rare breed that never gets in trouble and projects a good image of the team. What would the Mets gain by breaching that relationship?

The truth is they would alienate him like they did Reyes and Carlos Beltran. If the Mets do like him as much as they say, they need to show him their full support. They have to offer him the security that he needs and show a public interest in him.

There are three ways to do that. One, they have to stop putting his name out there and tell the league he is untouchable. Included in that would be the media. The Mets need to make a statement that he is not going anywhere. That would be such a tremendous boost to Wright that he may play inspired just based on that.

Two, they have to pick up his option. This helps the Mets because it keeps Wright around and shows him they want him, while allowing them time to negotiate a favorable long-term deal. It helps Wright by letting him know he is wanted here.

Three, they have to sign him to an extension next year. This secures his services for  many more years to come and allows him to be content and comfortable in his place in Queens. A comfortable Wright is a productive Wright. His stats speak to that.

The alternative to this is, of course, letting him squirm and become disgruntled. That makes for a unproductive player that will not get them the value they seek in the trade market. Then, they are stuck paying him millions of dollars for Jason Bay-like production and they end up letting him walk without getting anything in return for their decade-long investment.

Who wants that? The Mets know they have to do the right thing here. They know what the right thing is as well. They were not in a position to avoid that scenario with Jose Reyes. They will be able to avoid it with Wright. If they start now.

The Greek Tragedy of the New York Met Fan

In Greek mythology Sisyphus was a king punished by being compelled to roll an immense boulder up a hill, only to watch it roll back down, and to repeat this throughout eternity. The OBVIOUS question, Was Sisyphus a Met fan?

The various legends of King Sisyphus do bring an eerie remembrance of Bernie Madoff to mind. He tricked his wife into slaying his rival, betrayed a Zeus to improve his portfolio and even tricked Persephone into letting him out of the underworld so he could scold his wife (for obeying his commands).

So because of the SINS of our team's ownership... have the Mets been doomed to watch the team struggle forward and fail for the rest of eternity?

The tragic fate of this Jerk of a King is similar in many ways to my experience as a Met fan. The Mets begin to climb back into relevance with Mike Piazza. They reach the world series (a year late) and fall to the Yankees. Then... that team starts to crumble. Then... they re-build. They bring in Carlos Beltran and Pedro Martinez and Tom Glavine. They promote Jose Reyes and David Wright... The team makes in to the NLCS and would go onto the World Series... but Yadier Molina... Then... the team starts to crumble. They try to cobble things together to keep that boulder from sliding all the way back down... but nothing works.

Here we are. At the bottom of the hill. The boulder that is the New York Mets is heavy, and reaching the top seems impossibly hard. Perhaps this time will be THE time, and we'll finally escape the MLB equivalent of Tartarus. Perhaps we're destined to watch that boulder backslide a few more times.

Time will tell.

Mets - Darin Gorski, Carlos Beltran, Scott Sauerbach, Brad Holt

1-3-12 - mets360  - 8. Darin Gorski, LHP, Hi-A, 11-3, 2.08 ERA, 140 Ks in 138.2 IP - Most of the major prospect hounds are taking a wait-and-see approach with Gorski. They want to see how he does at Double-A before getting on the bandwagon. Gorski came out of nowhere last year and dominated at St. Lucie, yet he did this as a 23 year old, adding to the doubts. But here’s what Gorski has going for him: He’s a lefty who throws strikes, scouting reports have him at around 90 (Keith Law said 87-91 while Kevin Goldstein said 90-93), he throws three pitches and has outstanding command.

Carlos Beltran, OF  STL –  After back to back seasons where Beltran’s knee problems prevented him from playing more than half a year, he bounced back last season and managed to appear in 142 games.  His power was back, his average was up and it looked like he was the Carlos of old.  However, he did miss some time in August after tweaking that same knee and was lost for about two weeks, so the health concerns emerged once again.  Was this little incident just a minor thing or is it a foreshadowing of more consistent problems as we move forward?  The Cardinals seem to feel like he’s ok and have him slated to play regularly in right field, but the market for the soon-to-be 35 year old was pretty thin this offseason, so perhaps, there are some that don’t fully  believe that his knees can continue to hold up.  He can certainly be a fantasy asset when healthy, but using anything more than a 15th round pick could cost you plenty in the long run. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/top-10-high-risk-veterans-part-1/

What was your draft experience like, and how did you first know the Mets were interested in drafting you?: My draft experience was pretty miserable actually. I thought I had a chance to be drafted after my junior year in college, and sat around the house for three days waiting for the phone to ring. It never did, obviously.  I had two great starts to start my senior year in college, and then broke the thumb on my throwing hand in start number three and missed pretty much the rest of the year. I took the splint off the last couple of weeks of the season and pitched, as I had to get out there on the mound for anyone to see that I was healthy enough to pitch- which meant be healthy enough to be drafted. If you have ever tried to pitch with a broken thumb, it’s not the smartest thing you can do, but I really didn’t have a choice. Usually after the first inning it would swell up enough to render it useless in every sense, and I think I would of actually been better not having a thumb at that point, as it was not in contact with the ball at all and was just getting in the way. http://seamheads.com/2012/01/05/scott-sauerbeck-discusses-his-career/

1-6-12: - metsmerized  - 31. Brad Holt (RHP) Holt was at one time ranked up near the top of this list, but after failing miserably as a starter upon arriving at AA, he regressed for several seasons before seemingly straightening things out towards the end of last year. He has therefore fallen pretty far in the rankings as he tries to re-invent himself as a relief pitcher. I wrote a pretty involved spiel on Holt back in September, in the “Buffalo 2012 Preview” piece, entitled ‘Help On The Way’. Here’s some of what I said:  “Holt’s 2011 season wasn’t eye-popping, but he is definitely making progress. His overall numbers this year are average, 8-8 with a 4.71 ERA, but most of the runs he gave up were in the first half when he was being utilized as a starter. Since being converted to a relief pitcher full-time, he has been quietly doing a superb job, going 6-2 with a 4.09 ERA, in one and two inning stints. In his last eleven games out of the pen Holt is: 4-1 with a 4.02 ERA, and opponents are hitting .203 off him. The biggest improvement Holt has made is in his increased command, which has resulted in fewer walks, and that was crucial for him. As a starter last year, his K/BB ratio was 39/42, that’s right, more walks than strikeouts. As a reliever, his K/BB was 35/15. If he can keep moving forward, and make the necessary adjustments to the higher caliber of play at AAA, he could emerge as a “relief ace” for Buffalo, a real lock down 8th inning guy, which is exactly what the Mets see him as in the bigs. Will he be a help to the Mets at sometime in 2012 as a bullpen option? Why the heck not? He’s got the talent, hopefully his mechanics will fall into line.”