Position Battles Worth Watching- Week 1

With a week's worth of Grapefruit League games now complete; lets take a look at the status of the positional battles in camp.

Backup Catcher

So far, Recker has done nothing wrong to warrant losing his spot on the 25 man roster. In 5 games he is hitting .375 with a HR and 2 RBI's against Teagarden's .273 AVG with 4 K's. Recker also has the advantage of already knowing the sequences that the rotation likes to use in games having been the back-up all of last year. In the later innings, Centeno has also seen some work and is hitting .400 with no extra base hits but he's walking in as a long-shot to begin with as it is expecting he will start 2014 in AAA.

First Base Starter

This battle has barely gotten off the ground as both guys have been sidelined with injuries so far early in camp. Davis has only 3 games under his belt and has hit a HR in 1 AB and struck out in practically all the rest of them. His swing still looks ugly as his hands continue to drop. We may be counting the days till he is cut from the team. Duda on the other hand looked fantastic in his 2 games launching a long HR and rocket for a 2B. Striking out 33% less than your competitor generally helps too.

Left Field Starter

Through 1 week so far and we have ourselves a dead heat for LF. While Chris Young hasn't done anything wrong in the field, his .211 AVG with only 1 extra base hit in 7 games leaves much to be desired. Meanwhile, EYJ missed 3 games with an early camp injury and its affected him early on. While he is hitting .273 in the 4 games he's played, he's generally been facing lower level talent (AA and AAA). He's also committed 2 blunders in the field that have cost the team some runs and was even caught stealing. This battle is going to come down all the way to the last AB of Spring.

Center Field Starter

So far this spring, Lagares has done everything right in order to break camp as the starting CF. He's hitting .353 through 6 games and has already made 3 fantastic plays in CF including an OF assist. I'm sure the club doesn't like the 5 K's but the SB is a welcome site. Meanwhile Chris Young has his hands full just competing with Eric Young Jr. that so far he hasn't challenged Lagares so far in camp. Adding Drew at SS or anybody who can lead off would help Lagares' cause substantially as it would put a major dent in Eric Young's chances.

#5 Starter

Some interesting developments have occurred this week in terms of this position battle. What used to be a 3 person race between Matsuzaka, Lannan, and Mejia seems to have turned in a 2 man race due to serious shortfalls by Josh Edgin. So far Mejia and Matsuzaka seem to be on even footing. Even though Daisuke has the backing of Terry Collins, he's given up 8 hits in only 4 Innings Pitched and has struck out 3. Mejia on the other hand has those 3 K's in only 2 IP and has only allowed 1 hit. However he's also surrendered 2 BB's vs Daisuke's 0 BB. If Mejia can put together a 3 IP start with better control in his next start that will give him a much needed boost.

2nd Lefty in the Pen

The tide has really turned on Edgin so far in camp. In 3 IP so far he's given up 6 runs on 8 hits with only 1 K against mostly AA/AAA hitters. Not good at all. Meanwhile, Lannan has been almost exclusively facing MLB hitters and has only given up 2 runs thanks to an error while giving up 4 hits and K'ing 4 in 4 IP. While Lannan has certainly pitched well enough for considering in the #5 Starter battle he finds himself here because of just how bad Edgin has been.

The LTJ Report - Harvey Pitches Again, More Trade Rumors, Mejia to Relief, and How Syndergaard will Light MLB on Fire!

Earlier this week, New York Mets starting pitcher Matt Harvey threw a simple 20 pitch session in Spring Training and experienced no difficulty whatsoever. He is showing good progress after having successful Tommy John surgery and is doing well in rehabbing his throwing mechanics for his return in 2015. Keep in mind the Mets don't want the spotlight to be on his small pitching sessions during Spring Training since he definitely won't be playing anytime soon. I also don't see Harvey coming back this season as the Mets wouldn't want to deal with a nightmare if he gets hurt again and sets him back even further from a full recovery. Expect to see him back in the starting rotation come 2015.

Mets first baseman Ike Davis is still a hot topic these days as his name continues to come up on trade rumors and the fact that even though he’s in Spring Training with the team, he is still not a lock to stay on the team for too long. The latest now is the Baltimore Orioles have a strong interest in bringing in Davis to primarily be their Designated Hitter. According to the New York Post, Davis to become a DH in the American League could actually happen if the Mets pull the trigger on such a deal. While no draft picks would be involved, perhaps the Orioles can intrigue the Mets with some positional/utility players if a deal is reached. There is no denying Davis has a good bat when he’s not in a funk and could be stellar in a DH kind of role with a new team and ballpark. It’ll be interesting to see if a deal can be reached since even though Davis wants to remain a Met, I can imagine he’s probably frustrated with how this entire situation has unfolded throughout the offseason and into Spring Training. I personally think his name is a popular headline for every possible trade proposition you can think of since he knows he is on borrowed time. Expect to see Davis traded before Opening Day.

Reports are surfacing that the Seattle Mariners have been in talks with the Mets to see if a trade could be made between some extra players on both sides that the other side needs. At the moment, the Mariners are interested in trading shortstop Nick Franklin for possibly some of the younger pitching prospects in the Mets minor league system as they have plenty of arms to spare. Franklin would be a nice acquisition for the Mets since last season, he hit.225 with 12 HR’s and 45 RBI’s. He is a good utility baseball player since he has experience as a second baseman and shortstop. I think bringing him in would be a great idea so we don't have to deal with Ruben Tejada and his inconsistency. While Franklin won't exactly have the great impact a guy like Stephen Drew would make, Franklin would be ideal to hold down the starting shortstop position.

The Mets are once again considering converting Jenrry Mejia from a starting pitcher to a relief pitcher and quite honestly, I agree with it. Even though Mejia is currently doing his best to win the fifth spot in the Mets starting pitching rotation, manager Terry Collins hasn’t completely ruled out turning him into a bullpen option. It might happen obviously if he doesn’t get that starting spot but I think if he’s fully converted to a relief pitcher, it’ll help him recover from his bone spur surgery he had on his elbow last season. That way he can still contribute to the team in a relief kind of way while also not adding on anymore wear and tear. If Mejia were to adjust just a few of his pitches to help gobble up outs, I think he would thrive in this sort of situation, at least for this season. We’ll see how Spring Training goes for Mejia since I personally predict he's going to win that fifth spot in the Mets starting rotation. If healthy, Mejia will be outstanding this upcoming season.

Starting pitcher Noah Syndergaard has absolutely lived up to his top prospect hype so far in Spring Training. He was showcasing his amazing pitching magic this past Monday in a bullpen session where he was hitting 97+mph fastballs around a crowd of people. People were amazed at his velocity and were said to be incredibly impressed. I know I can’t wait to see him finally get that call up to the majors so we can see the damage he will cause at the major league level. He’s really tall too, coming in at 6’6, I can imagine what opposing batters will think when he has his eyes set on that strike zone!

Luis Tirado Jr. has been a Sportswriter for over 14 years. He is the founder of TheNYExpress.com and writes for RantSports.com, Mack's Mets, and GiantsGab.com. Please follow him on Twitter @LTJ81, "Like" his page on Facebook, or add him to your network on Google+.

Are the 2014 Mets a Better Team on Paper? (First Basemen)

     The 1st part of our series showed that we should expect massive improvement from the catching. Lets take a look at whether or not the team's 1B will show the same.

(***Note this takes into account the team as it is today. Steamer Projections are extrapolated out to 162 games for the starter only.)

2013

Players: Ike Davis, Lucas Dude, Josh Satin, Justin Turner, Daniel Murphy, Andrew Brown, Zach Lutz

Stats: .234 AVG/.353 OBP/.368 SLG, 15 HR, 59 RBI, 8 SB, 33 2B, 0 3B, 102 BB, 171 K
(24th in MLB OPS)

     The Mets entered the season hoping that Ike Davis would be more consistent across the entire season rather than the extreme 1st half/2nd half split that he was in 2012. As we all know, that did not exactly happen. In the first half of the season Ike hit only .165 with 5 HR and 73 K to 25 BB earning himself a demotion to AAA Las Vegas. Davis would come back however and slash a career high .286 AVG with a .449 OBP but at the expense of his power as he smashed only 4 more HR.

     In his absence Lucas Duda split time with Josh Satin. While Satin's .317 AVG, 12 2B, and 2 HRs were excellent, Duda was even worse hitting as a 1B then he was as a LF. In his games as a LF, "The Dude" had a .234 AVG with a .453 SLG, but as a 1B, he only hit .219 with a .371 SLG.

2014

Starter: Ike Davis

Steamer Projections: .238 AVG/.341 OBP/.439 SLG, 27 HR, 80 RBI, 3 SB, 85 BB, 155 K

     Steamer projections are giving Davis a small bump in batting average based on his reduced K rate once he returned from AAA and they also believe his power outage last season was an aberration rather than the norm. For comparisons sake, Duda is projected to output the same triple slash line as Davis but with fewer HRs and far worse defensive numbers.

Verdict: Push. Roughly the same production but with more power.

Mack - Life sometimes just isn't fair. Davis was supposed to hit around 35 home runs until sometime in 2017 when Dom Smith is ready. Then the Mets could ship Davis off for some prospect that could have helped them at another position.

Instead, we had to go through that painful 'let's throw Davis a curve and watch him swing like a sissy' period and now we have no idea 'who's on first'.

If what I'm hearing is true (Smith opens up 2014 in Savannah and could end the season at the A+ level), than I'd rather go with the Duda/Satin platoon for one year and one year only. You do get a utility infielder (Satin) out of this and Duda would double as your 6th outfielder.

I'm also going to assume that the Mets send Wilmer Flores back to Las Vegas to learn first base and I'll give the position to him in 2015.

Davis? I would move him, but if nothing comes back, than I believe that he doesn't have any options left while Duda has one. For the sake of the team then, you might see the platoon Davis/Satin.

1B Market Outlook 8 Days Before Christmas. Does Sandy Have Any Magic Left?

     As we inch closer to the bargain months of January and February, one has to believe that Sandy needs to pull the trigger soon or risk a reduced value in his surprise commodity that is 1B Ike Davis. With 3 teams, the Pirates, Brewers, and Astros, in pursuit of Davis, Sandy demands have been extremely high to the point of asking for the Brewers top organizational prospect in SP Tyler Thornburg.

     His high asking price does have some merit. The remaining options left on the market are not very attractive.

Player	Age	AVG	OBP	HR	RBI	UZR/150	2014 Salary
Mike Carp	28	0.267	0.337	17	71	(3.3)	$1.3
Kevin Youkilis*	34	0.235	0.336	19	60	9.3	$4.0
Lucas Duda	27	0.246	0.342	20	71	0.6	$1.8
Justin Smoak	27	0.227	0.314	22	68	(0.1)	$2.8
Mitch Moreland	28	0.253	0.318	23	68	4.2	$2.7
Issac Davis	26	0.242	0.334	25	80	3.0	$3.5
Adam Lind	30	0.269	0.322	26	91	(2.3)	$7.0
Kendrys Morales*	30	0.280	0.333	27	90	7.7	$14.1

*- Indicates free agency

- Uses career averages as a basis except for Youkilis which uses last healthy year (2012)

  

     You can see in the chart above that most of these guys are the same player. Low batting avg, above average power guys who play replacement level to above average defense and are 1st or 2nd year arbitration eligible guys. So far the tipping points in Sandy Alderson's favor are the following:

1.  Adam Lind and Mitch Moreland are both currently starters on their respective teams.

• Both players are currently locked in at the DH role as of right now. While both situations could change if additional off-season moves are made, the Rangers are looking to upgrade their OF with Nelson Cruz which would move Alex Rios to LF and Michael Choice to AAA thus having no effect on Moreland. Meanwhile, the Jays have been open to possibly moving Lind but, like the Mets, they have a high asking price requesting Neil Walker from the Pirates in exchange

2.  Ike Davis is superior to Justin Smoak in all aspects of the game.

• Even with Ike's awful 2013 season, He still has both better career number then Smoak and higher upside. In his career Davis has had a higher avg, more power, better OBP, and a better glove. A case can be made that a player's top career numbers is their likely peak upside. In Davis's case that's a .264 avg with a .351 OBP (2010) 32 HR and 90 RBIs (2012). In Smoak's case thats only a .238 AVG, .334 OBP with 20 HR (2013) and 55 RBIs (2011).

3.  Davis is a better value than Morales and doesn't cost a draft pick.

• The Seattle Mariners gave Kendrys Morales a Qualifying Offer, one that is quickly showing to be a huge detriment to Morales' market. Whoever ends up signing Davis is going to have to give up their top unprotected draft pick while paying at least over $12M a year for the same production they can possibly get from Davis at 4X the cost. For both the Pirates and the Brewers, that would be their 1st round pick which at this point is out of the question especially in this year's DEEP draft.

     In the end, the biggest threat to Sandy's goal of netting a young controllable pitcher seems to be the Red Sox Mike Carp. While he does not currently have a starting role, and has never been a starter in his career, he did performed well in 2013 hitting .296 with an ISO power rate of .227 and has been garnering interest from teams since the end of the Winter Meetings.

Flash- James Loney Signs With Tampa Bay Rays

According to Ken Rosenthal via Twitter, 1B James Loney has signed a 3 year $21M contract.

(This thins the market more for 1B and leaves the Brewers further out in the cold.Sandy's patience and the rapidly declining supply may get him what he's asking for. It's been suggested that the team is looking to acquire a young controllable SP in order to flip him or one of their current young pitchers in order to acquire a significant upgrade at SS.)

Hot Stove Report: Trouble with Intl Posting System, Multiple Teams in on Hawkins, Murphy Trade Rumors

     Despite heavy interest in Japanese SP Masahiro Tanaka, the MLB and Japan's Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) league's current agreement expired before this season began. Negotiators have been working around the clock to come up with a new agreement before the heart of the free agent signing season begins, however, according to Andy McCollough via Twitter, "Japanese baseball officials have yet to inform MLB agreeing to terms for posting system and the MLB now plans to re-work proposal."

(If the NPB and the MLB cannot come to an agreement before January, it will cause a huge frenzy amongst the top level ballclubs that are looking to sign him. As a result of that the market  prices for starting pitching will skyrocket which could make Sandy Alderson re-think the possibility of trading Jonathan Niese or Dillon Gee. Especially when guys with career ERA's of 4.19, like Ervin Santana, are looking for $20M per season.)

     Despite his reported desire to return to the Mets, RP LaTroy Hawkins is said to have approximately  7 teams interested in bringing the 41 year old into their respective bullpens. Hawkins should receive a significant increase from his 2013 $1M salary.

(Look I really like Hawkins and I believe that he would bring significant value as a veteran amongst a bunch of young guys that are expected to be in the bullpen. However there are a TON of solid right handed relievers on the free agent market this year. One guy who really stands out but is flying under the radar is former Met Joe Smith. If Hawkins demands start creeping out I'd let him walk and bring back Tim Brydak to be the veteran presence.)

     In a story written by MSN Sport's Ken Rosenthal, the Mets have received significant interest on 2B Daniel Murphy. Surprisingly, on top of teams viewing him as an offensive upgrade at 2B, teams are also potentially viewing him as a viable option to handle 3B. MLB Trade Rumors forecast Murphy to earn $5.8M this season as a arbitration eligible player and is one of the Mets best hitters. However, with IF prospect Wilmer Flores being MLB ready, the team may be inclined to move him now while his value is highest and hope Flores can handle 2B next season.

(While I understand the logic of selling high while maintaining the offensive production with Flores, I'm just not sold on the fact that Flores can handle 2B yet. I'd like to see what happens with Davis and Duda first before trading Murphy because, who knows, we might receive good offers for both of them and then need to slide Murphy over to 1B or Flores to 1B and keep Murphy at 2B. That's the beauty of his versatility.)

Hot Stove: Team Targets Peralta, Aceves, Brewers/Astros Shying Away from Davis.

     According to Nick Cafardo via Twitter, the Mets are interested in Red Sox RP Alfredo Aceves. After closing and converting 25 saves for the Sox in 2012, Aceves began the 2013 as a starter replacing the John Lackey in the rotation for the first but relationships between him and the Red Sox front office soured as the season went on. In July, Aceves claimed he was suffering from some sort of injury that was unknown to manager John Farrell. The controversy led him to be outrighted to AAA and placed on the 7 day DL for the remainder of the season. In his 11 appearances last season Aceves was 4-1 with a 4.86 ERA and a near 1:1 K to BB ratio.

(Sounds like another version of Frank Francisco if you ask me. As with Chris Young, if you can sign him to a minor league deal then fine bring him on board. However, anything more then that is not worth the possible headache considering the large number of young pitchers we have now and in AAA that can contribute.)

     According to CBS Sports John Heyman, SS Jhonny Peralta was spotted in Orlando, Florida and the team secretly met with the free agent to discuss his interest in joining the Mets. However Buster Olney, via Twitter, reported yesterday that the shortstop's representatives are apparently seeking a 3 year deal for $45M or more.

(Aye aye aye....$15M a season is up on the high side for Peralta and could be too rich for my blood. Alderson would be wise to wait it out and see how the market responds to Peralta's demands. We have to remember that the longer Stephen Drew sits on the market the more his price will be hurt by the Qualifying Offer he received. No need to panic here, continue being patient.)

     The Milwaukee Brewers seem to have changed their stance and are now interested in bringing back 1B Corey Hart for the 2014 season. At this point in time, John Heyman believes, that the Brewers prefer to sign the free agent rather than give up the pieces needed to trade for 1B Ike Davis. The Houston Astros do not seem to be a fit either as a potential trade partner. However, Metsblog's Anthony Vazzano via Mike Francesca, caught wind of discussions between the Mets and the Baltimore Orioles surrounding a trade centered around OF Nick Markakis. 

(Yes!! This is where releasing who your meeting with and how many teams are interested in helps out tremendously. Here we are at the beginning of the off-season thinking Davis had 0 trade value. Then we hear about a potential Davis for Aoki swap, then its Davis for Fowler, all of a sudden 5 teams are interested, and now his price tag has been driven up so much that we're talking about Markakis, a consistent .290 avg, 15 HR, strong armed former Gold Glover OF who is coming off a "bad" season which he still hit .271.)

Hot Stove Report: THEY LIKE IKE!, Byrdman goes to Philly, Interest in Chris Young

The Philadelphia Phillies have signed OF Marlon Byrd to a 2 yr contract for $16M (AAV: $8M). Included within the contract is a vesting option for 2016 for $8M. If Byrd reaches 600 plate appearances in 2015 or 1,100 plate appearance combined during the life of his contract, the option will vest. If not, it then becomes a club option for the Phillies. There is no buyout known at this time.

(Good for him...He bounced back nicely after being suspended for PEDs in 2012 and deserved to get a nice pay raise. That said, while the $8M per season isn't too cumbersome, that 3rd year is. Everyday starters generally have 625+ PA per season and Byrd currently slots in as one of those starters.  Marlon will be playing next season at age 36 and early Steamer projections only anticipate him hitting .256 with 12 HR and 51 RBI as they expect his Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) and Isolated Power (ISO) to normalize back to career norms. )

According to John Heyman of CBS Sports, a bevy of teams have inquired on what the Mets want for 1B Ike Davis. He specifically list the Houston Astros, Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays, Milwaukee Brewers, and the Colorado Rockies as confirmed suitors. Teams seem to view Davis as another potential Chris Davis change of scenery scenario.

(Sandy Alderson has to be salivating over the large number of teams that want Davis. Expect this to drag out for some time as Sandy goes back and forth from team to team trying to get more and more out of this deal. We may end up with a good OF'er or a MLB ready OF prospect when it's all said and done.)

Lastly, according to Marc Craig, via Twitter, the Mets are interested in CF Chris Young. Young played in Oakland last year and hit a measly .200 with a .280 OBP and 12 home runs.

(Meh...Am I missing something here? Young probably is no better than a AAAA OF  at this point in his career. If he can be had for a minor league deal then sure but we shouldn't sign him to be on our MLB squad. One could argue that he provides excellent defensive value but we already have a power hitting top notch defensive OF'er on our bench in Matt den Dekker.)

The LTJ Editorial: “Don't underestimate Murphy; put him at first”

“The LTJ Editorial”
Author: Luis Tirado Jr.
Date: 11-1-13
Twitter: @LTJ81
Website: http://www.TheNYExpress.com

“Don't underestimate Murphy; put him at first”

 

For the past few years, the New York Mets haven't had a permanent nor consistent playmaker at first base. We saw a glimpse of hope back in 2010 when First Baseman Ike Davis was called up to the majors and made a serious impact on the team. Right before the 2010 All-Star Game, he had the second most HR's of any rookie in team history with 11. I specifically remember his defense was on point, he was patient with every at-bat, and he came through in clutch situations. Sadly, the following year in 2011, he was hit with a severe ankle injury and hasn't been the same since. Sure, in 2012 he hit a decent .227 with 32 HR's but in 2013 he was at his worst. It was so bad, I don't even want to mention his stat line since it was a definite decline from years past. Davis was demoted to AAA and had to earn his way back up to the majors. What happened? My theory is it's all in his head. He seems to lack the confidence that he can be a solid and consistent player. If he just focused on making the right choices in key situations he would be fine but he always looked lost and confused. He didn't stick to his original batting stance and changed it up almost every few games. Even Keith Hernandez questioned who, what, where, and why did his batting stance have no consistency. Davis's defense was atrocious and all across the media, people were demanding change. That change came by way of First Baseman Josh Satin.

Satin was called up to replace Davis, much to the cheers of Mets fans across the nation to bring some kind of redemption out of first base. He was someone who was doing good in AAA and earned an opportunity to help contribute to the team in the majors. He definitely impressed, he was getting his hits, played pretty good defense, and also made a Mets rookie record! He had a streak going on 29 consecutive games he started in which he at least got on base until it ended. Once the streak ended (Ironically once Davis was recalled up to the majors and got his starting spot back almost immediately) he started to struggle a bit. Satin lost that streak he had when he first arrived and just became another name at first base where he faded away. The Mets played the new game of shuffling first basemen based on who was pitching since once excelled over the other based on righties versus lefties. I've always said that while Satin did provide a spark at first base, he was better as a quality backup or used as a pinch hitter. Perhaps he needs more time in the minors, I just don't see the superstar potential of him just yet.

As we all know, the Mets plan to spend some serious money this offseason to start building the necessary pieces to contend for a championship in the next few years. 2014 seems to be the year but it could be 2015 or beyond, who knows. It's not going to happen overnight, but the plan is to bring in some much needed top talent to compliment the pieces we already have. One interesting scenario has been the possibility of trading away more talent to get either pieces we need now or future draft picks. The most common name has been Second Baseman Daniel Murphy. He had a pretty solid season for the Mets with a stat line of .286, 188 hits, 38 doubles, 4 triples, and 13 HR's. With a solid .319 OBP he definitely was a consistent player. Many suggest that the Mets could ship Murphy to a team that desperately needs an established second baseman and acquire some minor league talent for pitching, relief pitching, and the outfield. I don't think the Mets should trade him at all, he has been an asset to the team and continues to improve steadily. I actually thought about a scenario that would fix our issues at first base and allow some other popular players a chance to be on the field instead of being just hidden away as depth.

In my mind, this is how I envision our infield according to my scenario:

First Base: Daniel Murphy
Second Base: Wilmer Flores
Third Base: David Wright
Shortstop: (acquire top talent in offseason)
Catcher: Travis d'Arnaud

I'd move Daniel Murphy to first base since he can definitely handle it and be a fixture there. Wilmer Flores has shown signs of being the next big thing in New York, similar to when we all saw the debut and eventual development of Starting Pitcher Matt Harvey. It would be a shame to just have Flores and his talent be wasted waiting behind David Wright who unless he gets injured, will be playing third base the majority of the time. Speaking of Wright, he isn't going anywhere, he will always be our all-star third baseman. Shortstop is a weak link in our infield, Quintanilla did an sub par job last season and I don't see Tejada being a permanent starter. He just gets into a slump and never seems to bounce back in a positive way. That's why the Mets absolutely need to acquire a solid top talent shortstop in the offseason. Rumors have circulated we could have a reunion with Jose Reyes but I doubt it, plus he is another player who always gets injured and isn't consistent. Throw in the fact that he's coming in towards the latter half of his career. I'd like someone like Jhonny Peralta or even Stephen Drew to be honest. Someone who can hit, be good defensively, and steal some bases! Finally, I think d'Arnaud will turn into a solid catcher but will need another year or so to keep at it. Experience behind the plate will only help his progression. He should be our permanent main catcher for these next few years.

Murphy at first base would finally put an end to the slumps there, blunders on defense, and bring more of a successful presence there. I don't want to see him go since we absolutely need him to keep building around our core. So far it's shaping up nicely, like I said, just an idea I think would work while we bring in a quality shortstop, one starting pitcher, a few outfielders, and of course, a relief pitcher or two. Let us all see what the Mets have in store for us, bidding wars for the top free agents in MLB starts this coming Tuesday, November 5^th, 2013.

Let the races begin! Before you hit the gate, trust me, leave Murphy at first base, he's got this!

The LTJ Editorial: “Cuba, baseball, and here is to the Mets bringing the next big sensation!”

“The LTJ Editorial”
Author: Luis Tirado Jr.
Date: 10-11-13
Twitter: @LTJ81
Website: http://www.TheNYExpress.com

“Cuba, baseball, and here is to the Mets bringing the next big sensation!”

For decades, the country of Cuba has been known as a hidden gem for tropical sights, world class cigars, and some of the purest sugar the world has ever seen. They have also been known to treat baseball like a religion out there. Children at very young ages practice in the streets and yards dreaming about making it in the big leagues. Cubans love baseball, it's just beyond words to describe the thrills of what happens on the diamond. For a really long time though, Cuban baseball players were banned from defecting to America to play for MLB. Luckily, just a few weeks ago, the government of Cuba officially lifted the ban of players playing in professional leagues outside of the country. Now, instead of having to defect, players are free to leave to join foreign leagues across the world. However, we all know that the fame, the glory, and of course, the money, comes from the USA. Keep in mind the embargo is still in place between the USA and Cuba, meaning, no business transactions can occur between both countries, this lift is just for athletes. The fact that now Cubans can come play the sports they love in this country is huge, provided they meet some criteria. They have to apply for a license through the US Treasury Department and have a residence outside of Cuba. All players also are required to pay taxes on their earnings to the Cuban government.

For the past 20 years, over 200 athletes have left Cuba to pursue their sports dreams in the USA. This MLB season alone, 21 Cubans defected to MLB teams and have made a tremendous impact on the game of baseball. Some of the most famous ones in the past few years are of course guys like Outfielder Yasiel Puig, Starting Pitcher Bronson Arroyo, Shortstop Yunel Escobar, and Outfielder Raul Ibanez just to name a few. Before Cuba lifted the ban, all salaries earned went directly to the Cuban government. Now they can start to live the American dream and start showing the world all the amazing talent that has come out of the country. The next big superstar proclaimed by most has already been scouted by some of the best scouts in all of MLB. Three of which are scouts from the NY Mets, much to the excitement of Mets fans everywhere. This particular player earned two Triple Crowns in the Cuban National Series league, which is unheard of. We all saw the damage this player caused in the World Baseball Classic this past March where he hit three home runs, and while batting .360 had nine runs batted in. I'm talking about Cuban First Baseman Jose Abreu.

Towards the start of October, Abreu held private auditions for over 30 different team scouts in the Dominican Republic, where he resides. He has officially been declared as a free agent and will certainly have a ton of interest from pretty much half the teams in MLB. He has such a raw power when hitting, he will grow into quite the sensation to whichever team gets to acquire his services. He could easily get 25-35 home runs against the top pitchers MLB has to offer, that's how much of an impact Abreu is going to have once he makes his major league debut. His defense at First Base is pretty solid as he has a decent arm and knows how to be quick with decisions. He's not the fastest of guys when it comes to base running and probably won't steal many bases, but he will be a great middle of the batting order kind of player. His at-bat presence is one of patience and waiting for the right opportunity to hit which will make him great in clutch game-winning situations.

It's no secret the Mets will have money to play with this offseason to bring in some much needed talent to make 2014 one to hopefully remember. When I think of First Base, one immediately thinks of the inconsistency of Ike Davis. I highly doubt the Mets will play the same game again next year of “hoping” Davis doesn't start off on another bad slump. Josh Satin is serviceable at best and while he would be a reliable backup to have, he just doesn't scream starting material at this moment. I love what Justin Turner did at First Base, but it's not really his natural position. While he filled in when needed nicely, I don't see Turner as the long-term answer. Same goes for Satin, who needs more time in the minors to develop. Abreu could be that huge missing piece the Mets need to bring solid defense, a hot bat, and some international flare to the team. Reports indicate that Abreu is seeking a deal in the area of four-years/$40 million since there is no guarantee he will replicate the success he had in Cuba in MLB. Bidding could get really out of control between teams. Once all the offers are on his table, who knows where he plans to go. Some say teams can easily go up to $60 million, so it all depends on what these scouts see that we don't to have the teams spend top money to grab him.

Is it a longshot that the Mets will bring in Abreu? Not really because bringing him in would give so many positives to the team. It's a fresh new soon to be superstar that will adjust very well with the Mets and of course in Citi Field. He would immediately fix our First Base situation and fans from across the world will come to see him play. The Mets would send a clear message to its fanbase that they want to contend in 2014 and for years to come. Acquiring Abreu and building around him would bring more credibility to that statement and have I mentioned, Abreu will bring us more wins. We haven't had a super productive and defensive First Baseman since the days of Carlos Delgado back in 2006.

Perhaps I'm getting too excited about all this. If the Mets had a press conference with the announcement of coming to terms with Abreu, can you imagine the headlines across the globe we'd see? Abreu can become the next big New York sensation and that will definitely pack the masses to get a first-hand look at any ballpark he plays in. Obviously the Mets aren't the only team in the hunt since most predict he will land in either Texas, Boston, San Francisco, Miami, and yeah, even Pittsburgh. It's going to be a fun offseason like always in baseball, especially if you are a Mets fan. I just hope he does land with the Mets since that would not only surprise the baseball world, but it could the the first piece in building that championship caliber team we've been patiently waiting for.

Mack Ade – Morning Report – 10-8-13 – Noah Syndergaard, Travis d’Arnaud, Ike Davis, Matt Kemp, David Price

 

John Manuel –

Scouts and managers considered him the easy choice as the best pitching prospect in the FSL thanks to a premium fastball, notable as much for its arm-side run and ability to get in on righthanded hitters as for its premium 94-98 mph velocity. Noah Syndergaard adds a fine pitcher’s build and clean delivery, both indicative of durability. Scouts and managers in the FSL considered his secondary stuff—he throws both a curveball and slider as well as a firm changeup—closer to average, with the change more on the fringy side.

 

Brian Zarpentine –

Travis d’Arnaud is set up to be the starting catcher in 2014, and the Mets hope he can hold that position for many years to come. But considering his injury history and his inexperience at the major league level, the Mets need to make sure they have a competent backup, and their best bet is finding a veteran that knows going in that he’ll be a backup and who will be happy with that role. The Mets have solid catching depth with guys like Anthony Recker, Juan Centeno and Francisco Pena, but if d’Arnaud gets hurt, there’s no way they can feel good about going with any of those guys for an extended period. This means they’ll have to find a dependable veteran catcher in free agency. http://www.rantsports.com/mlb/2013/10/07/top-5-offseason-priorities-for-new-york-mets/?xgbODHfrxKMwQhsT.99

                Mack – I don’t agree with Brian. You simply can’t solve everything in one year and I think going with a young catching crew is just fine. Now… if John Buck wants to come back for around $3mil  a year…

 

Rob Patterson - 

When all is said and done, I expect the nod to go to Ike Davis once again (unless he is traded), despite the fact that Lucas Duda has a better approach at the plate.  The Mets are invested in Davis and his power potential.  They have also seemed hesitant to admit their mistake in each of the following two seasons when they waited forever to send Davis down.  With all the chances he has been afforded already, I'd just be surprised if he didn't get another. http://effingmets.blogspot.com/2013/10/the-mets-mess-at-first-base-davis-or.html

Mack – First of all… great new blog site from a veteran blogger… I agree with Rob. Given a choice between Ike or Lucas, I also have to stay with the pedigree pick. Both play the same kind of game with a bat in their hands, but Davis wins the tie-breaker with his potential Gold Glove defense. You know I would rather have Mike Napoli over both these guys, but, if I have to choose with what I have, I would go with Davis.

 

Steve Keane -

The one player of that financial magnitude that intrigues me is Matt Kemp.  Kemp has been plagued by injuries this season and a slow healing ankle sprain is keeping him out of the Dodgers post season run but when healthy, Kemp is the player the Mets desperately need to assist in turning around the team’s losing frown. His combination of power and speed plus his outfield defense would be the big ticket acquisition that would make baseball stand up and notice that the Mets are back in business. http://www.kranepoolsociety.com/2013/10/07/matt-kemp-a-met-why-not/

Mack – Maybe Steve is on to something here. Maybe the only chance the 2014 Mets have is to take on some other team’s damaged goods. Something has to budge in the Dodgers outfield. Four all-stars, Kemp, Carl Crawford, Andre Eithier, and Yasiel Puig are under long term contracts here and someone has to go. The assumption has always been Either, who has had problems with manager Don Mattingly, but they seem to be in the past. Any trade of Kemp would first be considered a salary dump ($21.75mil/yr through 2019). It might surprise Mets fans how little it would take to pry him away. My guess… 100% of the contract plus two pitching prospects.

 

Christopher Soto -

Something to put on the morning report. What are the Colorado Rockies needs? With Helton gone they need a 1B and still need upgrades offensively. How about we send them Murphy (an upgrade over LaMahieu), Davis (could hit 40 bombs in Coors), Montero (groundball/control pitcher with High #3/Low #2 potential), and Nieuwenheis for Carlos Gonzalez, who is reportedly more likely to move than Tulo?

                Mack – This is what the Democrats and Republicans are missing out on… negotiating. We’ve been throwing around different trade scenarios for either Troy Tulowitzki or Gonzales. They make more sense each time they are tweaked. This might be the best one because it included Rafael Montero, a pitcher that has already showed his stuff in a city (Vegas) similar to Denver. You also can give them a hoice betweek Duda or Davis. I like this one and Colorado could also, especially if the Mets took on 100% of the contract.

 

Michael Scannell –

All this talk about needing to add offense is justified and obvious. However, with David Price apparently hitting the trade market, would you trade any of the Mets' young pitching to acquire him?  Getting him would give the Mets an Ace for 2014 and a top 2 of Harvey and Price after that.  Would you be willing to make a deal for him, say starting with Wheeler and Niese?  2015 -  SP1 Harvey,  SP2 Price,  SP3 Syndergaard…  I don't know that I would....don't know if I wouldn't.

                                Mack – I have followed Price since his days in Vero Beach. He would cost you big time, but, IMO, he’s easily worth $15mil, probably much more. The secret to any trade here is health. If you has a crystal ball and could guarantee that Price would stay healthy while Harvey came back 100%, you would wind up with a legitimate SP1 to help you return to respect in 2014, and probably one of the top three SP1-3 in 2015. Yes, I’m always ready to consider a pitcher for pitcher deal. Price is a better pitcher than Wheeler and he will only be 28 next season. Plus, he’s a lefty. In a heartbeat.

 

And lastly, we’re always looking for additional Mets writers especially now during the slower, off-season. We especially invite writers who specialize on other teams, baseball history, fantasy, or baseball cards. Most of the writers here participate on a weekly basis, but there are no general rules so once a month is more than we would have had if you didn’t join us. Please contact me at macksmets@gmail.com and we’ll make the arrangements to join the site.

 

 

Mets 2013 Awards

The Mets season is over and they have little to show for the season that just took place. Their best pitcher is in surgery limbo, almost every player's job is on shaky footing and there will be no playoffs or accolades to be handed out to any of them. But here at Mack's Mets Report, it seems necessary to give credit or ire where it is due. In the next few weeks, I'll be giving out some awards to the people in the organization that made this year memorable for reasons both good and awful. Without further ado, Part 1 of the 2013 Mets Awards!

The MVP- Matt Harvey

This is obvious and we'll get it out of the way. Matt Harvey brought excitement to Citi Field in so many ways this year. Near no-hitters, tons of strikeouts and his All Star appearance as the NL starting pitcher. He didn't complete the season, but no one on this team did more at such a high level with so much pressure heaped on him. We demanded as fans that Matt Harvey entertain us every fifth day and he rarely disappointed. Hopefully everything with his UCL works out for the best.

The LVP- Ruben Tejada

*Audible Gasps* A shocker already! Ike Davis is free from the LVP award? We'll get to destroying Ike Davis' name later. Ruben Tejada deserves this award for so many reasons. When this year began, I'm sure most fans had some high hopes for Ruben. His defense, decent hitting and presence atop the lineup would help fortify this team and it was up to him to make the next step. Well, he took such a big step backward that he broke a leg in the process. His defense? Putrid at the beginning of the year. His hitting? Nonexistent during his time at the highest level. His work ethic was questioned and he made us all shut our eyes and pretend that Omar Quintanilla was a serviceable replacement. We expected more from you, Ruben. You couldn't even play your way back to the majors and now, you may very well be replaced. Hopefully, your loss is our gain.

The Keith Hernandez "Oh My" Award- Ike Davis

Anyone who watches a Mets game is privileged to hear great commentary from Keith on everything baseball. He is funny, charismatic and very knowledgeable of the game. However, some Mets players have a tendency to get on Keith's bad side. You start to hear the sighs and the teeth sucking later in games that are all but lost. Keith is not afraid to express his dissatisfaction with player's play and no one draws more "Oh My"s than Ike Davis. Every swing that Ike Davis took seemed to pain Keith. Death by a thousand cuts: baseball edition. Keith played the same position and loved to break down how terrible Ike's stances and swings became. I've never heard the phrase "foot in the bucket" used so profusely about a player until Keith started highlighting Ike's shortcomings. I don't know what the Mets are going to do with him, but Keith's sanity, as well as that of the collective fan base, hangs in the balance.

The 2014 Roster Spot Award- Eric Young Jr. 

EY wasn't an All Star by any means and probably will never become one, but boy did he make things more interesting when he was in the lineup. He became the NL leader in steals and filled in the dimension that Jose Reyes vacated on his way out. The offense became (slightly) more dynamic and his defense was a welcome addition to that of Lucas Duda's in left. EY has played his way onto the 2014 roster and may even become a starter. He deserves it too. There has been talk that he could replace Daniel Murphy at second base if a trade happens. Regardless of the circumstance, Eric Young Jr. has a job on this team next year.

Next week's Awards: The Rising Star Award, The Good Riddance Award, The "Where Did He Come From?" Award, and The "You're Killing Me, Smalls!" Award.

The LTJ Editorial: “So, where do we put Flores after Wright returns?”

“The LTJ Editorial”
Author: Luis Tirado Jr.
Date: 8-13-13
Twitter: @LTJ81
Website: http://www.TheNYExpress.com

“So, where do we put Flores after Wright returns?”


3B Wilmer Flores took the NY Mets by storm when he was called up to the majors to fill in for the departure of 3B David Wright to the Disabled List. He has made quite the impact already, getting runs batted in, coming through with clutch hits when the team needs it, and has been a nice addition to the team overall. Reality says Wright won't be back until around early September due to his hamstring injury. It's great to see he has a steady backup behind him but once Wright comes back to the team, where does that leave Flores? What position is he going to be playing at?

In the minors, Flores has played many different positions. He's primarily been a Third Baseman, but has experience playing Shortstop and Second Base. He hasn't played in other positions other than the infield so that takes out the idea of putting him in the outfield. Besides, the way Lagares, Byrd, and Young Jr. have been playing great together, I don't see the team moving Flores out there. I could see a potential chance at First Base since Ike Davis/Josh Satin platoon there and they don't really have a steady consistent player starting. I know Davis has improved from slump, but it's nowhere near the production we should be getting out of First Base. Satin has been pretty good but is more of a depth kind of player that is a solid backup. Flores, while never playing at First Base, would be interesting to see if he can handle it. However, I still think the Mets will stick with Davis/Satin platooning there for next year as much as I would disagree with that. Now that I think about it, maybe it wouldn't be good to have Flores learn everything about First Base since it isn't his natural position. I'm pretty sure there would be some kind of learning curve and would regress his productivity.

Mets Manager Terry Collins has stated that Flores will see some playing time coming out of Second Base to give Daniel Murphy a well deserved day off or two to rest up. It's going to happen at some point this season, most likely when Wright returns to play. This move would gives Flores time to adjust to Second Base in the majors. Personally, after all is said and done I'd like to play out a scenario that might very well happen this upcoming offseason. As you know, the Mets want to spend some serious money to get some high quality players to the team. They want to acquire some top talent to accompany the solid talent around them and build a postseason contender in the NL East. With the aforementioned said, I see the Mets doing something smart that will essentially kill two birds with one stone. Trade Daniel Murphy.

Daniel Murphy is having of the best seasons of his career, batting .274, 9 HR's, 53 RBI's, 14 Stolen Bases, and an OBP of .307. He's been pretty healthy and has locked down Second Base pretty well. He's had a few defensive errors this year but nothing on a consistent basis. Plenty of teams out there are looking for a strong Second Baseman and similar to what the team did last year when trading R.A. Dickey, they want to get top quality in return. We could use some more pitchers, especially when it comes to our bullpen. I absolutely see the team trading Murphy for some quality arms and moving Flores to Second Base. Now you will have another solid player on the field starting alongside Wright. Flores looks to be the real deal and it would be silly to either send him back down to the minors or trade him away because we can't find a spot on the field for him.

2014 will have all eyes on the Mets and they need to have the best players on the field to have a final product that wins games. With a strong core centered around our high quality starting pitchers, we are just a few pieces away from contending for a Playoffs spot next year. It's been quite a long time since the Mets were in the postseason and the time is now to start making the right moves. I'm confident they will make the right choices needed to bring all the talent to the surface to bring some domination in every part of the game. I'm really excited for next season and I can't wait to see the damage Flores is going to do once he gets back on that field next year. As our new starting Second Baseman!

The Case for Jose Abreu

The state of the New York Mets first base situation has been quite the roller coaster this season as injuries to Lucas Duda, the poor overall season of Ike Davis and the clamor of fans to give Wilmer Flores a shot in the corner when David Wright returns from injury leave the position in a constant state of flux. There is obviously plenty of time left in the season to evaluate each and determine whether one of these players will stick long term, but what if none of these players makes the choice clear? First base will become a bigger question mark and the answer to that question should be Jose Abreu.

Abreu, 26, is a recent Cuban defector who will become an available free agent in the coming months. He is listed around 6'3" and weighs around 250 lbs. and plays first base. Saying he plays first base might actually be a farce because he should be listed as a hitter. Scouts have talked about how Abreu's strength as the No. 4 international prospect in the World Baseball Classic and it has nothing to do with his glove. It has everything to do with his bat.

His numbers stand out the most during the 2010-11 season where in just 66 games, he hit .453 to go along with 33 home runs and 93 RBIs and won an MVP award. Those are more akin to number in a video game numbers and yet his two most recent seasons do little to prove that his MVP season was anything close to an outlier. Through 2011-12 seasons, Abreu had a slash line of .394/.542/.837 with 35 home runs while missing time with bursitis in his elbow. This season, he only played 42 games because of the World Baseball Classic and that slash line slightly dropped  to .382/.535./.735 with 13 home runs. Oh, and during the WBC, Abreu hit .360 with three homers in just 25 plate appearances. Imagine that sort of production in the heart of the Mets lineup?

Actually, we have imagined numbers like that. Before Ike Davis broke his  leg, Mets fans had dreams of a .300 hitter with 30+ home run potential slotted in the cleanup spot every night. Obviously those dreams have become more nightmarish with each passing year. Lucas Duda, was a power bat that never had a position and just can't seem to stick anywhere on the field. We all want him to succeed, but it’s fair to question whether that success and lofty hopes will ever come. Wilmer Flores is someone that has been slotted into the Mets dream lineup by countless fans since he was 16. His position has changed every two years, his range diminishing and taking him all the way around the infield. He can be a quality run producer, but his power doesn't come close to the others. Maybe if we mashed them all together we could create a great first baseman. Or we could set our sights on Abreu. We could change that dream of any of the three aforementioned players to one where the next great Cuban player comes to Flushing and takes this team to a whole new level.

Cuban players have had their stock skyrocket because of the wild success of players like Yasiel Puig, Yoenis Cespedes and Aroldis Chapman in the majors and Abreu figures to fit right into that conversation. He is supposed to have more power than Cespedes, which is something crazy to think about when you remember the show he put on during the Home Run Derby at Citi Field last month. Yasiel Puig has helped the LA Dodgers from worst to first in the blink of an eye and Aroldis Chapman has been a dominant closer for years now. People have been failing to mention Jose Fernandez along with the great Cuban players in the league right now. What I'm trying to say is, Cuba has been churning out impact players lately and the Mets need to join the craze. Everyone is looking for the next Puig and Abreu can be that guy.

Now, would the Mets shell out the money to sign Jose Abreu? His contract will certainly be more than Puig's 7 year, $42 million contract. If the contract was for 6 years and about $50 million, who says no? That contract, comparative to other impact first basemen in the league would be considered peanuts. It  would take him through the rest of his prime years, and would fill an enormous need of a consistent power bat. Don't forget, in the upcoming free agent class, there isn't one single bat that comes even close to the power and potential of Jose Abreu. Some scouts have likened him to Ryan Howard. Mets fans will of course have a strong disdain for this comparison, but that is because the 26 year old Howard that we know wasn't on our team. Remember that Ryan Howard? The one who hit 58 home runs and drove in 149 RBIs while running away with the league's MVP? I'll take that kind of guy on my team for $50 million or more any day. I would also rather we have him than teams like the Washington Nationals or the Miami Marlins, where we can see him in countless at bats helping the competition. Both are teams that make a ton of sense for Abreu and will certainly be in the bidding war.

It really comes down to whether the Mets will stick to their plan. Abreu serves as a fork in the road for this franchise. Do they stay on their current path and let the hometown guys fight it out, or do they go a different way, chase a Cuban star and make a splash in free agency that could stake a claim that the Mets can be competitive? The time to make that decision will come and all we can do is hope we make the right one. Go big, get Jose Abreu.

 

The LTJ Editorial: "The rage in Valdespin now makes much more sense"

 

“The LTJ Editorial”
Author: Luis Tirado Jr.
Date: 8-6-13
Twitter: @LTJ81
Website: http://www.TheNYExpress.com

“The rage in Valdespin now makes much more sense”

Earlier this week Major League Baseball officially announced the twelve players who were caught using Performance Enhancing Drugs and their consequential suspensions of their involvement. Of course NY Yankees 3B Alex Rodriguez was made the greatest example as he was suspended for the rest of this season and all of the 2014 season due to his involvement and bringing other players to the Biogenesis clinic that distributed the drugs. One name that surprised many in the baseball world, especially fans of the NY Mets, was to see the name of OF Jordany Valdespin on that list. Just like the others, he was hit with a 50-game suspension and brings some clarity to his recent altercations with the team.

A few weeks ago, I thought it was weird that the moment Valdespin heard he got demoted, he lashed out to Manager Terry Collins. He did that in front of other players as it was rumored that teammates had to physically restrain Valdespin due to the outlash. His behavior was uncalled for as he even used a profanity to describe Collins that hit all the newspapers in New York and of course social media, which showed just how embarrassing the entire ordeal was. Once I read about this incident, I knew that his time would soon come to an end with this team even though he was sent down to our minor system. You just don't call your Manager that kind of profanity and expect all to be forgiven, especially when you do that in front of the guys you play alongside with every game. What happened to being humble? He should be grateful to be playing for this organization, not also forgetting, he is playing on the professional level of Major League Baseball. You just don't do those things, especially when you're 25 years old. You are an adult for crying out loud, not a teenager playing baseball in the street.

As if things couldn't get even more embarrassing, Valdespin was the main catalyst in a bench-clearing brawl in AAA-Vegas. Even in our minor league system, he just couldn't stay out of trouble or out of the media. AAA-Vegas is about progressing, perfecting, and adjusting your game. Not to get into fights with future prospects of professional baseball. What are you teaching the young guys down there? When things get bad, just start fighting? What does that truly accomplish? If you are demoted from the majors to the minors, be humble, take your shots like a man, and mentor those around you as you improve. At the end of the day, you are still a member of the NY Mets and should act professional at all times, especially in that situation in the minors. When 1B Ike Davis was sent down the the minors, you didn't hear any of this nonsense. Not a peep. He did his time to improve what he needed to fix and was called up when he was ready. No bench-clearing brawls, no immature antics, just all about baseball and getting back to the majors. I respect guys like Davis who did it the right way, the real way.

I'm pretty sure we have seen the last of Valdespin on the NY Mets. There is no reason to keep him since we have other prospects that are getting ready for the once in a lifetime opportunity to play professional baseball with this team. They just called up 3B Wilmer Flores who will debut tonight and we have a nice core of young guys who will bring more talent to us than Valdespin ever would have brought to us anyway. I'm glad he got caught because cheating should never be used as a way to get an advantage over those who naturally work hard to play at their best level. Plenty of legends did it the right way and are all going to be remembered for their ethics, athletics, and clutch performances not for using PEDs. Valdespin is nowhere near a legend obviously, even before he was caught cheating he wasn't anything special to be honest. Now with this suspension, it's even more clear he is a disgrace to this team, to Major League Baseball, and of course, to himself.

At the end of the day, he will serve his suspension and always be tagged with being associated with being a cheater. Everything now makes sense, the outburst against Collins, the bench-clearing brawl, and how most reports say most of his teammates didn't like him either. They said he was very immature and didn't focus on what matters most – baseball.

Wilmer Flores Gets His Birthday Wish

Wilmer Flores will finally get his chance to play for the New York Mets. It still seems odd that a team so devoid of talent would wait so long to promote a prospect that in the minors has hit .321 with 15 home runs and 89 RBI, especially when he can fill the hole left by an injury to our best player, David Wright. This should have happened immediately, but at least Flores gets to debut on his birthday. That's quite a present for a 22-year old whom we have always had high hopes for.

I'm sure many of the readers on this site know the story of Flores. A kid from Venezuela signed as an international free agent in 2007 at the age of 16 who plied his trade at shortstop. He has grown both literally and figuratively, though probably more of the former. His range started to diminish as he ascended the minor league system, playing second base as a starter in the 2009 Futures game and finally playing the corner infield positions as recently as this year. The knock has always been his defensive deficiencies, as shown by his 9 errors at secodn base this year, but man can this kid hit.

Over the last two seasons in the minors, Wilmer Flores has been the lone bat to truly stand out and separate himself from the others. He hit .300 splitting time between St. Lucie and Binghamtom last year to go along with 18 homers and 75 RBI. This year, he has improved on those numbers and his on-base has has shown a slight uptick this year at .357 on the year. His slugging percentage of .536 would put him atop the list of Mets players this year, ahead of David Wright. This is not to say that Flores is better than David or even that his numbers are entirely sustainable on his newest baseball endeavor, but numbers don't lie. Put this kid in your lineup and you know that he is going to produce quality at bats with great RBI potential. He is definitely part of the solution to Terry Collins' "We don't score runs" argument.

Flores is a welcome addition to the roster, but what will his fate be when injured David Wright returns? There is obviously no way on earth that he stays at third and I can't see a platoon at second base because it doesn't really solve the problem of strengthening the lineup. A platoon at first base seems the most likely option, but I think he should get starts consistently just to see what he can do at the major league level. We know that Ike Davis not going to turn his season around and there leaves little reasoning to start the lefty over Flores, especially if he plays well. It might make sense to use Davis as a defensive replacement later in games, but Ike has made some garish plays that make you wonder where his head is.

When the rosters expand, this team and the season will turn into an extended audition. Wilmer Flores simply has a head start. He has the talent to stick on this roster and the opportunity to make his mark to perhaps start next year as the Opening Day first baseman of the future. We are all looking ahead, but Wilmer Flores is looking toward today. Happy Birthday, and best of luck.

Mack Ade – AM Report – 8-2-13 – Second Base, John Church, Tulo, Ike Davis, Dustin Lawley

8-2-13 - Jeff Sullivan @JSully12  - 2014 HS class is my favorite in a while. Absolutely loaded with arms. No clear cut number 1 guy, but 8-10 who have a legit chance to be - 02 Aug …    Mack Ade@JohnMackinAde  - @JSully12 - Interesting... Scott Boras told Kevin Kernan yesterday that 2014 is big year for COLLEGE arms - 02 Aug .. Jeff Sullivan @JSully12   - @JohnMackinAde Draft as a whole is loaded!

 

We’re taking a projection look at second base and all the candidates that have any chance of become the full time second baseman for the New York Mets.

Current – Daniel Murphy – 28-yrs old - .281/.317/.410/.727, 13-E – he’s 24^th in the league in hitting and is being paid $2.925mil in his first arbitration year (2016/FA). His defense is still a work in progress, but so would his immediate replacement (Wilmer Flores- turns 22 this week) be. The Mets have sort or created these workable starters that consist of Ike Davis, Murphy, Omar Quintanilla, David Wright, and John Buck in the infield… and Marlon Byrd, Juan Lagares, and Eric Young Jr. in the outfield. It’s worked to the degree that they are winning more than they are losing since they put this together, but they’re not winning enough to become relevant.

Third base stands alone as the one position that doesn’t need to be changed or tweaked. The catcher will take care of itself as soon as Travis d’Arnaud arrives. But all the other positions have what some call ‘holes’, but I call ‘issues’.

Second base, using Murphy, is not an issue to me, as long as Wilmer Flores either plays 2014 in Queens as the first baseman, or is moved for a top prospect ready for either shortstop or the outfield.

The 2014 Mets will have multiple issues and having Flores and Murphy on the same side of the infield could be quite interesting for the official scorer, but my guess is both of these guys are going to spend the off-season once again with Tim Teufel down in the compound.

Sandy Alderson has some important areas to address in the off-season, none of which include pitching, third base, and catching. I keep sitting here every day watching no offense out of this team and they have the RBI leader in the Pacific Coast League in AAA. And don’t give me that rare air shit. Everybody I that league hits the same air and Flores outhits them all. I’m run out of rational reasons why Ike Davis is still around. The risk of Juan Lagares worked… why not Flores on first for the rest of the season (with Josh Satin spelling him)?

Binghamton’s Danny Muno’s numbers have steadily decreased from each level… Brooklyn in 2011: .355… St. Lucie in 2012: .280… Binghamton this year: .254. Additionally, his OBP, SLUG, and OPS have also declined. He’s 24-yrs old and I currently place him heading to the AAAA level after 2014. Of cource, I had Juan Lagares at that level a year ago.

Jorge Rivero – 24-yrs old – A-Savannah – Rivero is playing at two levels two lower than he should, filling in for the injured Phillip Evans. He’s hit .339 at Brooklyn this year (62-AB) and .323 at Savannah (62-AB), but he projects out as only a utility infielder with no pop.

Past that, you have to go to Brooklyn to find a second baseman that should be playing St. Lucie. LJ Mazzilli (22-yrs.-old, .294) is doing fine for the Cyclones, but there is no one blocking him to play at a higher level. I’ve never understood the logic of the Mets drafting college juniors and starting them out in rookie leagues.

                Anyone else here (Leon Canelon – 21/yrs. – old – GCL)) is years away from any determination.

So, what do you have here?

You actually have a pretty decent major leaguer and a top level prospect who is leading the AAA in RBIs at 21-years old. Both are a defensive liability but second base looks like one of the more secure positions on this team for years to come.

 

 

We talked yesterday about relief pitchers and we need to revisit another one that either gets little or no press in the world of Mets reporting.

How’s this for stats:

                He went 7-2, 2.64 for Savannah in 2010

                In 2012, he went 37-games, 2.97 for St. Lucie

                In 2013, he went 32-games, 3.44 for Binghamton

                And in 2013, he’s now throwing 9-G, 1.38 or Las Vegas.

He’s John Church, the 6-3 righty (26-yrs. old) out of the University of West Florida. He’s not a fireballer (260-K in 304-IP, but he doesn’t let balls leave the park either (0.38-HR9). Church has always done what the Mets have asked him to do and he’s now dominating in a league that eats up pitchers.

He should have enough time the rest of this season to determine whether or not he will be invited to the Big Boy Spring Training camp, which would be nice to see. We talk all the time about growing our talent from within and Church is a perfect example of someone worthy of that shot.

Let's revisit this... Church's combined ERA by level:  A: 3.27... A+: 3.55... AA: 3.41... AAA: 1.38.

Come on guys... give the dude a shot here...

 

Gary Seagren –

Good morning Mack, Very enlightening 8/1 a.m. post on the current and future state of BB. As far as my team going forward Harvey, Wheeler and Mejia are locks and we certainly have enough depth to fill the other two spots till Thor and Montero are ready.

Morning Gary… I’m starting to feel that Jonathan Niese will remain as part of the ‘Fab 5’. He would easily be the best SP5 in the National League and I love his contract. As for Montero, the word is he is heading to the bullpen after this season, which may be a very good thing for the Mets. He can’t seem to be developing an additional plus pitch to compliment his fastball. That being said, the FB alone can make him an effective 8^th inning reliever if he sets everything up with the heater down the zone.

I would go the trade route for a power bat as I think the Mets will because what's available on the free agent front is not going to put us in a playoff spot and Lagares,  EY, Puello (and shouldn't he be doing his PED suspension time now) and Den Decker who's recovered nicely in Vegas NEED TO PLAY. I'd resign Byrd as a free agent for the outfield but that's all. Beltran would have been a good resign the winter after we traded him but ALL players slow down sometime and he'll be 37 next year along with the fact that who say's he'd even come back here? I like Satin as a pinch hitter and bench player and don't see Sandy going into 14' with Ike. I still don't get all the love for Duda and he'd be in Vegas not in Queens for me.

Well, I covered this at the beginning of this post. The Mets now have a basic starting lineup and everyone keeps saying “I love what Byrd has done…” and “isn’t Lagares a wonderful surprise…” and Murphy’s on fire…” and “EYJ has been a wonderful pickup…”. But, here’s the problem.

They don’t score runs.

These players are not going to get you to the playoffs. Do they make the team more competitive and enjoyable to watch? Yes. But, that’s it, Gary.

I'd go for power in a trade at SS (I know a long shot here) or 1st base and that's my first question to you: who would you go for at one of these positions to fill that need? Dream guy would be Tulo  but he'd cost us all of our top prospects even if he were available. Also for the life of me I can't understand why Flores is still in Vegas? It's got to be about service time and that stupid super 2 nonsense.

                The Mets need bats, period, whether they play shortstop or the outfield.

They also can not include Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, and Noah Syndergaard in any trade. You’ve already seen the difference in how this team plays with Harvey or Wheeler on the mound. They can’t lose that.

No General Manager is going to trade his all-star shortstop for the “4^th” pitching prospect out of an organization. He’s be laughed out of the GM meetings.

The Mets need to continue to build, train, and develop from within (perfect case is Juan Lagares who has been turned into a major league baseball player), but, for now, they need to take some of that huge pile of money they will have laying around in the off-season and buy someone. I want Choo. Others want Ellsbury. I could give a rat’s ass how much you pay them since it’s not my money… just limit the deal to three years max. You have to fix in out of the outfield positions until guys like Cesar Puello, Dustin Lawley, and Matt den Dekker prove whether or not they can be productive major league outfielders. 

When the season began NO ONE could have guessed that Mejia and Lagares would have any impact on this year’s team no less what they've provided which has taken the sting out of the disappointment  known as Strike Davis.

Both Mejia and Lagares look like they have solidified a position on the Mets 2014 25-man squad. This is what I’ve been saying lately. You can become better at this sport if, one, you keep trying to improve and, two, you get the chance to play.

On the minor league front could you give me updates on the following players: Lawley, Gorski, Plawecki, den Decker and when will Walters get to Queens?

Lawley is leading his league home runs and has an ETA of sometime in 2015. He still needs a good amount of work on doing things other than hitting the ball out of the park and I wish the Mets would stop playing him on third base…

Gorski will come to camp next spring to compete for a 2014 pen slot…

Plawecki will open next season in Binghamton, end it in Las Vegas, and then wait for the next Travis d’Arnaud injury…

2014 will be the year den Dekker gets his chance to prove he’s a keeper and Walters’ Queens ETA is 2015.

Steven Guilbert - The Research on Ike Davis

 The Mets have been held to zero or just one run 17 times this year after today's shutout. 14 of those have come in games Ike Davis started. He pinch hit in another and struck out in his only at bat.

Only two came during the time he was demoted (Wainwright's filthy start and Tim Hudson's dominant outing against Gee when Freeman hit the game-winner in the 9th).

In those 15 games, Ike Davis was 4-36 (.111).

25 games without Ike, we get held to one of fewer runs twice (8% of games in that span)

81 with him, it happens 15 times (19%)

Oh, and in those two games Ike was gone and we scored 0 or 1 runs, the Mets first base replacements went 5-8 combined (Murph and Duda).

Oh, and in case the above didn't implicitly say this, the Mets have not been held to 0 or 1 runs in a game in which Ike Davis was on the 25 man roster and did not appear in the game.

Mets record when Ike Davis is not on the 25-man roster: 13-12 (.520), 162-game extrapolation= 84-78

Mets record when Ike Davis is on the 25-man roster: 35-46 (.432), 162-game extrapolation= 70-92

The LTJ Editorial: “This just isn't going to be that kind of season”

“The LTJ Editorial”
Author: Luis Tirado Jr.
Date: 8-2-13
Twitter: @LTJ81
Website: http://www.TheNYExpress.com

“This just isn't going to be that kind of season”

We all got excited, especially after the All-Star game. The NY Mets were going into the All-Star break after winning several series on the road and were only about eight games out of first place. Yes, they were still 4^th in the National League East but still, there was hope that if they kept winning, they wouldn't be too far off in chasing the Atlanta Braves. Then, once again, the cold harsh reality hit that once again after the All-Star break, everything would start going from bad to worse. The Mets would start losing close games and getting clobbered when they should be dominating teams (like the Miami Marlins). Even the phenom of SP Matt Harvey started to feel it, he can't win in Miami. Yes, those same Marlins that have some of the worst statistics in all of major league baseball seem to have Harvey's number, he's winless against them.

So you look at all that, our situations at first base between Ike Davis and Josh Satin, our lack of hitting and run support, you pretty much spell what the rest of the 2013 season will look like. I hate to say it, but this just isn't our year. We don't have the impact players we need, we lack the hot winning streaks to succeed, and as of right now, we just need to keep playing as many players from our minor league system to focus on the future. Don't get me wrong, I don't want to sound like everything is horrible with the Mets, it really isn't. It's to a point now where almost every game we are in, we just can't seem to hit, even after quality starts from our pitchers, we have zero run support. It's frustrating to watch since we know we've seen glimpses of guys like Byrd, Buck, and Wright hit very well. Then other times, it seems nobody can get on base or worst case, we have people in position to score, and we just can't punch in those guys to cross the home plate. It's almost 100% predictable and annoying when you can see the double plays against the Mets coming. Eventually though, summer will be over, the Fall will be here, and the playoffs of October will begin. The Mets, sadly, won't be anywhere in sight but thinking about 2014.

What happens now? Well, I'm going to take a look at our present day starters and see who is staying and who is going. Kind of like an evaluation on our current talent and whether or not they are worth keeping for the future.......

*** CATCHER ***
When I think of John Buck, I think of a great mentor, a good teacher for guys like Recker and eventually d'Arnaud so I would keep him even as a backup. If he can start for us next year as the best option for the team, great, if not, keep him but have him be the backup to either Recker or d'Arnaud, if he is ready around that time.

*** FIRST BASE ***
If Ike Davis continues to be in the funk he is in, I honestly don't see him being around for too long. While I don't think the Mets will trade/release him, I see him being in the minors and working with the youth. I also don't think Josh Satin is our answer at first base even though he's been pretty good with us, I think he is more of a solid backup to a true starting first basemen. What do I suggest? All the talk about the Mets making some serious acquisitions in the offseason should help effect this position. We need to sign a quality name to first base, trade for one, do something. We need a household name to hold it down.

*** SECOND BASE ***
Daniel Murphy is on fire this year and I love what he brings to the team. He sometimes makes mistakes that costs us runs but he has been pretty good defensively for the most part. I have a funny feeling the Mets might actually trade him for some other positional players but I sure do hope they keep him and include him in the long term picture.

*** THIRD BASE ***
What more can I say? David Wright is our team captain and is having one of the best seasons of his career as our main third baseman. He will keep doing his thing and I don't see any reason to bring anyone else in. He's also not going anywhere and I seriously doubt they will trade him for anyone really. He is the main guy the Mets will be building around.

*** SHORTSTOP ***
Omar Quintanilla has been decent this year but I don't see him in the long term with the Mets. I hope Tejada goes back to being who he use to be, but since he's been on the DL this year and before that was playing pretty bad, the Mets should look to sign a quality SS to bring speed, leadoff hitting, and stealing bases back to this team. Kind of like when we had Jose Reyes, we need that speedy presence back on this team. Justin Turner has been pretty good as of late, but will he be our solution at SS? I doubt it but at least he can provide depth when needed.

*** LEFT FIELD ***
Absolutely love Eric Young Jr. and I definitely think the Mets should keep him and continue to have him be the hot bat we needed for the outfield. The minute he came to the Mets, he made an immediate impact and has been one of the few reasons why, outside of a Harvey or Wheeler start, you should watch the team play.

*** CENTER FIELD ***
I like Juan Lagares but I think he should be used as depth and not really a potential starter. Once again, this is one area the Mets need to spend some of their money on, we need at least one or two more quality outfielders. Guys who will hit, be very good defensively, and bring a sense of power to the team.

*** RIGHT FIELD ***
Personally, I would keep Marlon Byrd on the team for next year and beyond since he is pretty clutch when needed and overall has been a solid acquisition to the team. He has a good eye on the ball, is pretty patient at the plate, and has had a major hand in most of those late game rallies that won us some games.

*** STARTING PITCHERS ***
Obviously we have the great tandem of Harvey/Wheeler who we will keep and continue to build around. I would also keep Hefner, Gee, and am kind of on the fence with Torres. I think Torres needs more time in the minors until he is truly ready to dominate. Until then, I think the Mets in the offseason need to sign one, maybe two quality starting pitchers to the team. I have no idea if we will ever see SP Johan Santana back in a Mets uniform, so I can't count on him at all in being part of the long term plan for the Mets.

*** RELIEF PITCHERS ***
While they have improved slightly this season, we have absolutely no dominance when it comes to our bullpen. I do like Hawkins and his experience, Edgin is ok, Rice is alright, and Atchinson is serviceable. Out of all of our bullpen though, I think Aardsma needs more time in the minors and just isn't ready to perform in the major league level. Overall though, we need to sign at least one high quality arm for bullpen relief. I think if we added a strong arm to our bullpen, it'll equate to more wins, easily giving us more of a chance to compete in the NL East. We lost too many close games because honestly, our bullpen gave up one too many runs.

*** CLOSING PITCHERS ***
I like what Parnell brings to the table so we are fine here, he's not perfect, but I think he fits the closer role nicely for the team. I wouldn't really go after anyone to handle our closing duties.

Despite it all, I'm still going to watch my Mets continue to bring this season to a close. Hopefully we end the best way we can and start to do whatever is necessary to build around the gems we do have. Guys like Wright, Harvey, Wheeler, Murphy, Young, etc. I know it hurts to say this season isn't what I had hoped it would be from this past April, but one insight in all of this is never losing hope. Not this year, but in 2014 and beyond, I know better times are ahead for this team. We have a solid minor league system, we have quality guys on the roster now, and if you think about it, we are just a few missing pieces away from a high quality final product to compete day in, day out. It's going to happen and I know it all starts this offseason! Hopefully the Mets make wise choices (Please, don't pull another Jason Bay) and start thinking about what makes the most sense to start having winning records for 2014 and beyond!