He was a highly touted catching prospect who moved rapidly through the minor leagues. One of his strongest points was the rapport he built with the pitching staff. He commanded the game from behind the plate, but had trouble throwing out base runners. This season he is batting just over .250 with an OPS in the 700’s while playing around 60% of his team’s games.
I could be talking about Francisco Alvarez, but I could also be talking about Travis d’Arnaud. You see, their stats are almost identical this year and I find that very concerning. Travis d’Arnaud came to New York in 2013 with great expectations but after six seasons with the team he was sent packing. The front office and the fan base were disappointed in his struggles with defense against the running game, his inconsistent hitting, and inability to stay healthy. In those six seasons, d’Arnaud had one notable year (2015) where he had an .825 OPS and played an important role for the NL pennant winners – but still only played in 67 games.
Francisco Alvarez feels like a different guy, but the stats do not show it. His career slash line of .225/.295/.430 is not very impressive for a guy that was touted for his power bat throughout his prospect years. It is painful to watch him now as opposing pitchers exploit his inability to recognize the slider that starts as a strike but breaks down and away from his bat.
Alvarez had weak to average defensive skills while in the minors, but proved a quick study and by the time he reached the majors he played very well, blocking balls, framing balls, and showing off a very strong arm with snap throws to all bases. Lately though, his defensive game has been off. He has shown lapses of concentration including passed balls that should have been caught and a very embarrassing play where a runner stole third on Alvarez’ lazy throw back to the pitcher.
This season, Alvarez is batting .255 with a .708 OPS, but it would be even worse if you eliminate his strong month of June. Without his hot 48 bats in June, Alvarez is slashing .224/.264/.328 which is slightly worse than his career averages. Backup catcher Luis Torrens is throwing out runners at a much higher rate than Alvarez, which eliminates the pitchers as an excuse for Francisco’s low 11% caught stealing rate. An interesting statistical view of Alvarez is that his pop time is in the 81st percentile yet his caught stealing rate is in the 39th percentile. He has an 80.6 arm strength rating, so the difference has to be throwing accuracy.
There have been bouts with injury, including thumb surgery this year. The catcher position is always one filled with bumps and bruises so it is not uncommon for catchers to be out. Hand problems can affect batting, but I don’t think his hands have anything to do with the inability to hit the slider. So if it is not a physical ailment, it must be mental.
The Mets need Alvarez to get on a roll, to hit with some power, and to reclaim his mojo behind the plate. I believe it is entirely up to him to work out the bugs and start playing at a high level again. His mental approach needs improvement on both sides of the ball.
I have always been excited about Francisco Alvarez and his potential to be a star with the Mets. But this year has been a disappointment in all phases of his game. Knowing the patience of Mets fans and the long history of catcher turnover on this team, I think that Alvarez needs to turn things around very quickly.

