Are the 2014 Mets a Better Team on Paper? (Bullpen)

    We have clearly improved at the C, SS, and CF positions even though the players are the same. We expect the same lackluster production at 1B, and the same solid production at 2B and 3B. As we stated before, LF looks like its a real wild card since we still have no idea who's going to be starting and RF should be at least equal to last year's production but has a chance to be a bit better. The rotation is obviously not the same without Harvey, but the current group of guys may surprise you. Last but not least lets take a look at the bullpen.

(***Note this takes into account the team as it is today. Steamer Projections are extrapolated out to 162 games for the starter only.)

2013

Players: Scott Rice, LaTroy Hawkins, Scott Atchison, Bobby Parnell, David Aardsma, Brandon Lyon, Josh Edgin, Greg Burke, Gonzalez German, Pedro Feliciano, Carlos Torres, Vic Black, Rob Carson
Stats: 26-31, 3.98 ERA, 40 SV, 10 SO, 178 BB, 392 K, .256 BAA
(22nd in MLB ERA)

     Let's not beat around the bush for this part. The bullpen flat out stunk in 2013. Yea they finished 22nd thanks to a strong end to the season but only 3 teams gave up more runs than the Mets bullpen (Colorado, Houston, and Seattle). The same 3 teams were also the only ones who had higher BAA then the Mets. The bullpen even finished dead last in K's by a wide margin of 26.

     Parnell was the only household name in the pen last season and was excellent saving 22 games with a 2.16 ERA and even winning 5 games in the process. However a neck injury cut his season short leaving the bullpen to a bunch of minor league call-ups and spring training invite guys.

     Rice was a pleasant surprise in 2013 but heavy usage in April and May, due to Edgin's poor performance and demotion to AAA, led to him imploding in June to the tune of a .423 BAA and a 10.50 ERA. Once Edgin, was re-promoted to take some of the burden off him, both pitchers performed admirably posting sub 1.50 ERA's in July and August.

     Hawkins was also a pleasant surprise posting a 2.93 ERA and converting 13 Saves in Parnell absence. In fact, the 40 year old was the most consistent pitcher all year long and finished strong with 7 saves in September while giving up 0 runs and only 7 hits.

     Unfortunately after those 3 guys the rest of the pen was dismal. Aardsma had one good month before sporting a 5.00+ ERAs the rest of the way. Lyon and his 4.98 ERA was released halfway through the season after showing that he couldn't a be a set up man to Parnell (6.12 ERA in non save situation appearances). Atchison's old UCL-less arm couldn't stay healthy and couldn't strike anyone out (5.2 K/9) while Burke and his 5.68 ERA racked up some serious frequent flyer miles between NY and Vegas.

2014

Closer: Bobby Parnell: 28 SV, 3.15 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 3.1 BB/9

Set-Up: Victor Black: 3.50 ERA, 10.1 K/9, 4.6 BB/9
LOOGY: Scott Rice: 3.77 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 4.1 BB/9
ROOGY: Jeurys Familia: 3.66 ERA, 8.8 K/9, 4.2 BB/9
RH MR: Gonzalez German: 3.41 ERA, 8.0 K/9, 3.1 BB/9
LH MR: Josh Edgin: 3.84 ERA, 8.4 K/9, 4.0 BB/9
Long Man: Carlos Torres: 3.92 ERA, 7.4 K/9, 2.9 BB/9

     Much like the projections for the rotation, we need to take the bullpen projections with a grain of salt. That said, these numbers do not look that bad at all. One obvious thing that stands out is that this pen is going to be built on young power arms and will not repeat as the league's worst K machines. At the same time this group is also projecting to be one of the most inexperienced with only 9 years of MLB service time between them (Of which 5 years belongs to Parnell). The oldest guy in the bunch (Rice) will only be in his 2nd MLB season.

     This pen has some potential and is either going to be very energetic and strong armed or is going to implode in our faces. It will all depend on how Terry Collins uses them. Our saving grace here is that Jeff Walters, Jack Leathersich, Chase Huchingson, Cory Mazzoni, and Jacob DeGrom are all ready to hold a spot in the pen if any of these guys falter.

    Also from a statistical standpoint you can't be much worse then last year's group

Verdict: Massive volatility due to inexperience but at a bare minimum will be a push. Could possibly finish at moderate improvement if group can keep the BB rates in check.


You can't analyze the Mets pen without throwing in how they are managed.

It's like going to The Palm Restaurant, ordering the Filet, and asking for a bottle of ketchup.

First thing first... the starters have to average at least six innings per game. That happens, they may have enough here.

I still think there is one more outsider that will be signed for the pen. Until then, I'll reserve judgement. 

New York Mets: Foresight is 20/20

When fans talk about the Mets, usually one thing comes to mind lately: youth. With the exception of David Wright, none of the starting fielders played on this team the last time they made a playoff push. It's a different team entirely.

Many think they are not built to win with their personnel as it currently is. Many think that they have to wait until the talent in their farm system has matured at the MLB level to see the fruits of the struggles from recent times properly harvested.

While names like Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler and Jeurys Familia are on the way in a few years, this current band of Metropolitans are not going down without a proper fight. They may seem inexperienced and young, but this is a team that believes in itself even when no one else does. That may go a long way.

When those highly-touted names do finally arrive in Queens, it will be they who are young and inexperienced. It is this year's current batch of youngsters that will be heavily relied upon to help in their acclamation to the league.

Therefore, it is important to remember that with every win, every loss, every big strikeout, every botched double-play attempt, these kids are learning how to become better and more successful. That can and will only prove to better serve the most revered rookies on the cusp of emerging down the road.

In the meantime, this group of over-matched newcomers will remain naive enough to believe that they can compete in the league this year and next year. They will continue to play with grit, determination and heart.

They will leave everything on the field and hope that it pays off. They have a quiet patience and a growing confidence that matches their esteemed coach, Terry Collins. They have taken on his personality.

This team that has  been assembled for the sole purpose of saving the Wilpons money may, in the long run, make the Wiplons money as they continue to win and continue to compete unnoticed outside of New York.

They will continue to prove the naysayers wrong and be a team that no one saw coming. Then, everyone will claim that they believed all along. But the players in the dugout will know the truth.

Years from now when we are talking about our Harveys' and Wheelers' we will all claim the youth from this season as a crucial part of their success.

Then, and only then, will we know what GM Sandy Alderson really was trying to accomplish. We see struggling youth, but he and the Mets see success being forged through adversity. Perhaps we ought to follow his lead.

Mets Recap Mets 5-4-Profiling – Greg Peavey, Tyler Pill, Darrell Cecilliani, Angel Cuan, Jeurys Familia

Mets Recap  Mets 5-4-Profiling – Greg Peavey, Tyler Pill, Darrell Cecilliani, Angel Cuan, Jeurys Familia

Stock Up -  SP Greg Peavey – The Mets pitching continued to impress during the first week of the season; however, it came mostly from the second tier of prospects. Peavey pitched 5.2 scoreless innings in his first 2012 outing, giving up only two hits while striking out five and walking none.

                                   Stock Up -      SP Tyler Pill – you have to love those college Friday pitches going to A-ball. Pill dominated in his first outing, going: 6.0-IP, 0-R, 3-H, 7-K, 0-BB. He should be in St. Lucie as I originally predicted.

                                  Stock Up -   CF Darrell Cecilliani – a walk off home run always gets you a ‘stock up’ and Darrell had quite a night on 4-9, going 4-5 and raising his young BA to .444. ‘DC’ is healthy again.

                                  Stock Up -  SP Angel Cuan – there definitely was a bunch of god Mets pitching the first week of the season and none better than Cuan, who went: 7.0-IP, 2-H, 0-R, 4-K, 1-BB for St. Lucie. Most of us pundits await his conversion to a reliever, yet he just keeps pitching.

                                  Stock Up -      SP Jeurys Famlia – this is your typical Familia outing… 95+, a lot of strikeouts, too many walks, 100 pitches, less than 4-R per start. Wednesday 4-11 was: 5.0-IP, 3-R, 8-K, 3-BB, 100-PC, seasonal ERA: 3.72. I predict he will be ready long before Harvey.    

The Keepers: - #3 - RHSP - Jeurys Familia

3.             RHSP Jeurys Familia

“Family” signed with the Mets during the October 2007 International signing period. 2008 was spent with with the GCL Mets, where he went 2-2, 2.79, 1.14 in 11 starts. He quickly became the dean of the staff.

In 2009, Familia pitched for the Savannah Sand Gnats: 10-6, 2.69, 1.16, 109-K, 134.0-IP.

His two year professional stats are: 12-8, 2.72, 1.16

1-1-10 Forecast: - Nothing but blue sky for the 19-year old, but his job is just beginning. We’ve seen many a pitcher do well in rookie and A ball, only to fade away by the time they compete AA. Familia definitely loos like the real deal, but it is too early to tell. He’ll rotate with his Sand Gnat buddies for a new coach in Flordia and we wish him well.

5-22-10: - SP Jeurys Familia: Famila started off the season with a horrendous outing in which he gave up 7-ER in 3.2-IP (17.18). Four outings later, he’s worked his ERA down to 7.06, but he definitely has settled down his last two outings, giving up only 3-ER in 9.0-IP. You won’t see him pitching for anyone other than St. Lucie this season. One good sign is his K/IP ratio has remained high (23-Ks in 21.2-IP). He’s only 20-years old so there’s plenty of time. (update… five more decent innings tonight, giving up only one run…)

6-22-10: - Familia has had a tough time this season and some have speculated that he might be returning to Savannah to get his game together; however, he put together a good outing Monday night, with stats of: 6.2-IP, 1-ER, 7-K, 3-BB. His yearly ERA is now 6.16 and this was especially a heart breaker, since it was a 7-inng game. Jeurys was one out away from a complete game victory, but was relieved and the game was lost eventually to Bradenton. Bad game, but good outing.

6-28-10: - Giving up three earned runs in 6.1-IP may not be considered the best of outings, but it’s a good one for Familia, who’s been struggling all year long. He struck out five, but walked four. Regardless of the tough year, he still is considered a top pitching prospect

7-28-10 from: - we don’t have to talk about what a frustrating year it’s been for Familia, but he did manage to put together a decent outing last night against Brevard County. Familia went: 6.0-IP, 6-H, 2-ER, 7-K, 2-BB and lowered his season ERA to 6.13. Let’s remember he is only 20-years old and did come off two great years in 2009 (Savannah: 2.69) and 2008 (GCL: 2.79). We’ll give him a push this season and it sure looks like he will repeat Lucy in 2011.

4-8-11: - Up – SP Jeurys Familia – we’ve talked about this a number of times. The only difference between Familia and Jenrry Mejia is Jenrry can hit the barn. Jeurys has all the velo and sickness needed to make it in the pros; now all he needs is control, and he sure made a statement in his first outing in 2011:  7.0-IP, 1-H, 0-R, 0-BB, 7-K

SP Jeurys Familia – 4-19-11 – I’ve done some checking on Familia and people in St. Lucie tell me that this is a brand new version of this pitcher. One, he’s confident, but more important, he seems to be in total control of every one of his pitchers. Obviously, the transformation so far this season is making Mets fans dance in the stands. Some stats so far this season: 6.2-BB/PA, 26.2-K/PA, .140-BABIP, 56-GB%, 0-HR/Air%, 2.27-FIP, 0.54-BsRA9

4-29-11: - I had hoped that Jeurys Familia would have been promoted into this start, but instead, RHP Edgar Ramirez makes his first start of the year. Edgar has pitched in 144 games at six levels and has only started seven times. He is one of the nicest, most articulate Mets I have ever had the pleasure to meet. He always has a smile on his face and an answer to a question. I wish him well.  36th round draft pick in 2006 out of LSU. Has consistently been a “good” reliever, but just hasn’t taken that next step.

5-5-11 - SP Jeurys Familia continues to prove that he has made that critical stage. AA baseball is a dream killer and no one understood that more than he did last season, but he worked hard in the off-season and is showing the kind of control and consistently to move on. Tonight: 6.2-IP, 1-ER, 6-K, 0-BB. ERA is now a buck forty nine.  Minor league pitchers are asked to throw pitches they haven’t mastered. That’s how you get better. You sacrifice your personal stats so you can see the results of what you are trying to learn. This is what Familia went through last year and the average fan, that only looks at stats, though he was cooked. He wasn’t. He simply was learning, and what he learned is being applied this season.

5-9-11: - There’s a lesson to be learned regarding the Jeurys Familia promotion yesterday. This has nothing to do with whether or not the B-Mets needed another pitcher, or St. Lucie should have held back until after they win their first-half season division race. Promotions come from Queens, after evaluating players themselves, with input from the local manager and coaches.  Yes, sometimes the team decides to hold up as in the case of the Sand Gnats last year, but again, it’s based on individual player development, not team standings. Anyone that has spent any time watching Familia pitch this spring has seen his maturity soar, regardless of age.

5-10-11: - SP Jeurys Familia made his AA debut on Tuesday night. Seemed to have terrific control. Fastball was 93-96 and mixed it up with low-80s soft stuff. Went: 7.0-IP, 5-H, 2-R, 1-ER, 6-K, 0-BB, 1.29.

5-22-11: - I guess this was a bad outing for Familia. He only went 5.0 innings, giving up two earned runs and four base on balls. His ERA “soared” to 1.42. This was the first outing, either with St. Lucie or Binghamton, that he gave up more than three walks.

5-24-11: - Mets Minor League Pitching Coordinator Rick Tomlin to Matt Eddy/BA on Familia: - “We wanted him to have the ability to use his athleticism, to be natural and not be so inhibited…The biggest thing we did was we stood him up tall. He’s a big, strong, tall guy (listed at 6-foot-3, 185 pounds), but last year he had a bit of a crouch in his delivery. He was bent over, so we concentrated on getting his arm on a better path. He really bought into what we were trying to do…Before, Familia would crouch over a bit and the path of his arm would get wide and swing away from his body. Now he’s standing taller and he’s got his arm on a better plane.”

5-27-11: - Okay, Friday night was Harvey’s 10th start in A+ and the league has seen enough. He put up seven more shutout innings while striking out ten and it’s time for him to join his pitching bud, Jeurys Familia, in Binghamton. These two guys, plus a fully healed Jenrry Mejia, represent the future of the Mets beginning in 2013. Some still have their doubts, while others think they could see Queens next year. I really believe at this point that both these guys are for real, but neither should be rushed in 2012. Let them finish 2011 in Binghamton. Bring them to camp with the big boys in 2012, and start them off in Buffalo on opening day. Mejia should be pitching there by June and the Binghamton staff will feature Greg Peavey, Matt Barnes, and Josh Osich. Familia didn’t have as great a night as Harvey (3-ER in 5.0-IP, 7-K), but the strikeouts are still there, and his AA ERA is still 2.25. That comes to 10 starts in A+/AA, 60.1-IP, 12-ER, and 57-K while only 17-BB. I have no problem with these numbers.

6-2-11: -      It was going to happen. SP Jeurys Familia fifth turn in AA ball wasn’t one for his scrapbook: 4.0-IP, 7-H, 3-ER, 3-BB. That’s okay… his AA ERA is still 2.89 and his combined stats for the season are 64.1-IP, 61-K, 20-BB, 2.10.  Reports from the team are that he’s been asked to throw more sliders so he can develop the pitch. You have to throw what you’re trying to master and, in doing that, stats will be affected.

6-21-11: - http://www.deepleagues.com/?p=3431   Deep Leagues updated their Top 250 baseball prospects list and Familia jumped 40 positions (which is a very big jump for this website. - 176. Jeurys Familia—P, Mets (+40) Familia is starting to improve in AA, posting double-digit strikeouts in back-to-back starts

6-29-11: - team press release:  -  Jeurys Familia has been selected to represent the Binghamton Mets at the 2011 Eastern League All-Star Game at Northeast Delta Dental Stadium in Manchester, New Hampshire on July 13. Starting pitcher Jeurys Familia has made eight starts for the B-Mets, going 0-2 with a 3.35 ERA in his first taste of Double-A action. The right-hander’s ratio of 10.1 strike outs per nine innings pitched leads all active B-Met pitchers. The Dominican hurler was named the 13th best prospect in the Mets’ system entering the 2011 season. He received the Sterling Organizational Pitcher of the Year award in 2009 and was named to the World Team in the All-Star Futures Game last year.

7-3-11: - http://metsmerizedonline.com/2011/07/best-mets-minor-league-surprises-mid-season-edition.html  - Jeurys Familia – Binghamton, the power armed righty has started 8 games for the B-Mets after 6 good starts in St Lucie to start the season. He is still looking for his first AA win, but his other stats are scintillating. He went into the year needing to refine his secondary pitches, (slider and change-up). The good news is, he has, and his off-speed stuff is developing nicely. This could keep him in the rotation and not force a move to the bullpen. In 45.2 AA innings, he is 0-2 with a 3.35 ERA, 42 H, 51 K and 20 BB, the league is hitting only .243 against this 6’3″, 21 year old.

7-5-11: - http://www.metsminorleagueblog.com/aa-weekend-harvey-valdespin-keeps-on-hitting  - Jeurys Familia made his (triumphant?) return to the mound Monday and was pretty darn sharp considering it was his first appearance since June 18: 5 IP, 5 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 3 BB, 6 K. Sure, it’s easy to love the fact that he’s fanning over a batter an inning (57 K/50.2 IP) at AA. However, I want to see if Familia can drop his walk rate in the second half. At 23 walks in 50.2 innings, he’s walking 4 BB/9. That’s too many.

7-11-11: - Top 10 Minor League Performances in 2011 - 8. Jeurys Familia – SP – A+/AA: - 3-3, 2.63, 16-ST, 100-K, 92.1-IP – Naturally, Familia is finding it tougher to pitch in AA; however, he is making the conversion. He’ll finish the season here, return here for the stat of 2012, and be ready for Queens in 2013.

7-13-11: - http://bleacherreport.com/articles/765098-new-york-mets-dillon-gee-and-the-mets-top-10-young-pitching-prospects#/articles/765098-new-york-mets-dillon-gee-and-the-mets-top-10-young-pitching-prospects/page/2 - Familia, who led the St. Lucie Mets with 137 strikeouts in 2010 (K per nine of 10.2), was called up to play AA ball for Binghamton this May. Earlier this season, his line (1.49 ERA, 36 K’s, 0.798 WHIP) in six games for St. Lucie certainly made the pitcher out to be a young sensation. While once a victim of terrible control issues, his velocity has been climbing and now can reach up to 96-97 mph. He’d fumbled here and there, perhaps throwing off the perceptive development curve, but most of it was due to his learning of a changeup. Familia also throws an above-average slider, sported a 50 percent groundball rate in 2011, and is working on his command. As his numbers improve, so does the general word on his scouting report and the development has been a treat for those fortunate enough to watch him. Lots of officials like Familia, and think that he could skyrocket on the 2012 prospects board. Just recently, Mets Geek called him the third-best upside arm behind Mejia and Holt.

7-14-11: - http://www.amazinavenue.com/2011/7/11/2270752/mets-minors-road-report-binghamton-7-9-brooklyn-7-10 - His general game plan seemed to be first pitch fastball for a strike. Period. He usually got it, too. When he got in a bit of a one-out jam in the first, he actually tripled up on his slider, which he had only thrown once to that point. It got him to 1-2 and he got the strikeout looking on the next pitch with his fastball. Also, after struggling to put away hitters in the fourth, he worked backwards more in the fifth, twice leading with his change-up to get ahead. It worked as the fifth was a seven pitch inning for Familia. As mentioned, the change-up was his out pitch, though he oddly got away from it in the back half of the fourth inning, throwing almost all fastballs and sliders.

7-14-11: - http://bleacherreport.com/articles/764392-2011-eastern-league-all-star-game-top-10-prospects - Familia has been a breakout performer for the Mets this season. With top pitching prospect Jenrry Mejia lost for the season with Tommy John surgery, Familia and 2010 first-round pick Matt Harvey have stepped up to fill the void. Some scouts still think Familia is best suited for the bullpen, but with a power arm that produces a high-90s fastball and a strong breaking ball the Mets will take their time and see if they can develop Familia as a starter. However, if that doesn't pan out, a relief role could put Familia on the fast track.

7-26-11: - http://www.amazinavenue.com/2011/7/26/2287253/mets-mid-term-farm-system-review-2011-binghamton#storyjump - RHP Jeurys Familia - STOCK UP - I'm not one to toot my own horn...but beep beep. Me, Jan. 17: 'I for one am still looking for that big-time breakout campaign from Familia, just a year later than we all expected.' And so it shall come to pass. After a 2010 that saw his ERA more than double -- from 2.69 in '09 up to 5.58 in '10 -- Familia fulfilled the promise that kept him among the organization's top 5 pitchers in the pre-season rankings. He has translated increasing fastball velocity -- now in the mid to upper 90's -- and a sharpened change into exceptional results. He quickly dispatched FSL hitters, posting a 1.49 ERA and a .171 average against before being promoted after just six starts. He continued to roll initially but began to see that Double-A hitters wouldn't chase and worse, when behind they could catch a good fastball (see: seven hrs allowed). But despite finding Double-A a bit trickier, Familia still maintained a K/9 above 10 and a .239 average against. He has struggled over the past month with a mysterious injury that the club seemed happy enough to label a lack of energy. Yet it recently landed him on the DL in the form of a shoulder impingement. Regardless, he has emerged to challenge Harvey and Mejia as the organization's top minor league pitcher. 

8-13-11: - Stock Up: - SP Jeurys Familia – The best news about Saturday’s outing was the fact that Familia was on a strict 80/pitch/5-iP limit, whichever came first. Familia has very little more to prove this year and there’s no reason to over pitch him. That being said, his line was: 5.0-OP, 2-H, 0-R, 7-K, 0-BB, hit 95 consistently, touched 96.

8-22-11: - http://bleacherreport.com/articles/814874-new-york-mets-who-the-mets-should-add-to-their-40-man-roster-on-september-1st -

Jeurys Familia P Binghampton Mets (Double-A): 20 GS with Binghamton and Single-A Adv St. Lucie 5-4, 2.81 ERA, 120 Ks, 109.0 IP  Familia, an Eastern League All-Star this season, has electric stuff and he has used it to strike out 120 batters in only 109 innings in starts for Binghamton and St. Lucie.  The Mets already have some more developed pitching prospects similar to Familia in Pedro Beato and Jenrry Mejia already in the majors and Triple-A, but with the current rotation status of the Mets they can't have enough pitching.  Familia is still a little raw as a pitcher, but he will mature quickly with a call-up to the majors in September

.

9-3-11: - http://metsmerizedonline.com/2011/09/prospect-pulse-buffalo-2012-help-on-the-way.html -

SP2:  Jeurys Familia - With 22 GS this season, split between St Lucie (6 starts), and Bingo (16 starts with one remaining), Familia has shown why he is one of the four top pitchers in the Mets system. Frequently hitting triple digits with his fastball is no small feat for a young starting pitcher. And while the team is trying to bring him along slowly, how can they not start him at Buffalo next year, the way he has simply dominated the hitters in AA? The Mets will add him to the quickly filling up 40-man roster this winter, and he may force their hand at some point next season, and earn a call-up. He is too good to ignore, and with this kind of talent, anything is possible. Could this be the guy to throw the Mets’ first no-no in their history? He has the stuff.

10-12-11: - http://www.mlbdailydish.com/2011/10/12/2484736/5-questions-with-new-york-mets-expert-eric-simon -  Aside from the new additions, one Mets farmhand who elevated himself to blue chip this year was Dominican righty Jeurys Familia. The 22-year old starting pitcher has always had an exciting arm but he put everything together in a 2011 season where he posted a 2.90 ERA while getting his first exposure to Double-A hitters. He also managed well over a strikeout per inning while shoring up his once shaky command and allowing just a .228 average against. But the reason scouts really love him is his projectable 6'3" frame paired with his extremely strong repertoire, which features a mid-to-upper-90s fastball as well as a wipeout slider and an improved change. Expect to see Familia not only climb to the very top of Mets' farm system rankings but to the upper tier of national prospect rankings too as he possesses the much-coveted True Ace potential.

10-10-11: - https://mail.google.com/mail/?shva=1#inbox/132edccbf718965f - Top five Met prospects -  Sunday, October 9, 2011 - The Record - 4. Jeurys Familia, RHP, turns 22 Monday (.228 batting-average against in St. Lucie and Binghamton): 132 strikeouts in 124 innings for the right-hander who has been clocked consistently in triple digits. He could switch to the bullpen in the majors.

10-5-11: - www.baseballamerica.com – (Jeurys) Familia toned down his delivery from his phrenetic motion he showed prior to 2011, and that allowed him to throw more quality strikes with one of the EL’s most explosive fastballs. His loose, whippy arm helps him sit at 92-96 mph with hard life down in the zone. His curveball has improved, and while it has slurvy shape, it has late break at times and gives him another swing-and-miss pitch. His changeup is too firm but is a decent third pitch that plays up thanks to his premium fastball. His youth and inexperience show up most with his erratic defense and difficulties holding runners.

The case for signing C.J. Wilson and the future of Mets pitching

It’s been said that Sandy Alderson is expecting next year’s payroll to be low enough ($100m-$110m) to prohibit any playoff expectations and that we as fans should look to 2013 as the next competitive year.

Even if this team is rebuilding this year with hopes of competing for the playoffs in 2013, they’re still going to need to add pieces in anticipation of that run. It’s rarely the case that a team can bring together all of the assets needed to win in one offseason. The backbone of any winning team is its pitching rotation. At the center of the best teams in Mets' history ('69 Seaver, Koosman, etc. & '86 Gooden, Ojeda, Darling, etc.) are those teams' pitching staffs.

It’s assumed that the current regime is going to build a pitching staff with some of the players it already has in-house. I expect that 3 out of Jonathon Niese, Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Jenrry Mejia, and Jeurys Familia will be part of the rotation in 2013. Given his status as the only LHP in that group as well as the fact that he as already enjoyed some MLB success (and flashes of brilliance as well), I’m assuming Niese is a lock for that future rotation. That would leave spots for 2 of the 4 RHP prospects in the system. I’m only assuming 2 because it’s unlikely that all 4 become quality MLB pitchers and even less likely that a NY baseball team entrusts its entire rotation to so many unproven rookies, no matter how high their talent ceilings. Given Mejia’s injury history and the fact that many scouts see Familia as an eventual reliever, I’m penciling in Harvey in Wheeler for those 2 spots.

With Harvey, Niese, and Wheeler occupying 3 rotation spots, the Mets are going to need 2 pitchers from outside the organization. Both of these acquisitions had better be of the SP1 or SP2 variety if the Mets have dreams of playing in October 2013. Harvey and Wheeler have the promise and potential of becoming F.O.R. pitchers as they mature, however neither should be expected to contribute regularly at that level so early in their careers.

At least one of these acquisitions will need to be a LHP. Why? Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Freddie Freeman, Jason Heyward, Logan Morrison are just a few reasons… maybe even Bryce Harper at that point as well. If the Mets want to be competitive in their own division (let alone in the NL), their pitching will have to be able to neutralize the elite LH bats of their competitors. This is where C.J. Wilson comes in.

Over the next two offseasons, the best LHP free agents scheduled to be available are Wilson, C.C. Sabathia,, Mark Buerhle, Paul Maholm, John Danks, Cole Hamels, and Jonathan Sanchez. Sabathia will remain with the Yankees. If Buerhle leaves the White Sox, he’s said numerous times that he wants to go home to pitch for the Cardinals, a team that suddenly could use some pitching. Maholm seemed to finally break through this year, but he had a terrible August and will be coming off an injury next year. Danks is talented and has shown flashes of SP1 potential, however he is far from a sure thing. His 2012 effort will provide a clearer picture of his value. Hamels will likely re-sign in Philadelphia; if he leaves town, it won’t be for the Mets. Hamels has an obvious disdain for the Mets and would need to be vastly overpaid to move 2 hours north. I don’t see Sandy & Co. making that level of commitment to lure him to NYC. More likely, any departure would take him home to the west coast. That leaves Sanchez who, although he had an outstanding career year in 2011, looks to be a middle-of-the-rotation pitcher at best.

Seeing how limited the free agent pool is going forward, if Wilson isn’t signed, that leaves the trade market to fill the void. Looking at the top 20 LHP over the last 2 years, only Dallas Braden (a shoulder injury ended his 2011) looks like he might be made available. Kershaw, Price, Lester, and Gonzalez all figure to stay with the current teams for some time. Obviously, that picture could change over the next year, however it’s just as likely that teams will seek to sign their young talents long-term as it is that additional potential trade targets will emerge. There are some top LHP pitching prospects that could be available, but acquiring one puts the Mets in the same position they are in with Harvey and Wheeler – waiting for them to emerge. Given that uncertainty, signing Wilson makes that much more sense.

Wilson’s enjoyed success pitching for a team that plays its home games in a notorious hitters’ park. That success should continue and maybe even increase with a move to the NL and Citifield. Also, although Wilson will be 31 next season, he’s only been starting for 2 seasons. He likely has a lot more innings on his arm than any other similarly-aged pitcher. Giving him a 4-5 year contract appears to be a lot safer than it might seem.

By coming to the Mets, he immediately provides them with a SP1-level pitcher to front their rotation and take the pressure off the rest of the staff. It also lessens the pressure on Johan Santana to return to form. I don’t expect Johan to return from injury as anything more than a SP2 and even that might be hoping for too much. It’s a shame that his tenure with the Mets did not work out as hoped, however it appears it will be time to turn the page from him after 2012 when his contract should be easier to move. Having C.J. Wilson already on the roster will make that an easier transition.

With regard to the budget, we don't know what the team is truly willing to spend. If Reyes is re-signed it will likely only add $7-$8 million to the payroll over his $11 million salary this year. Carlos Beltran and Fracnsico Rodriguez have been removed from the books, Castillo and Perez's money will come off, and I wouldn't expect Pelfrey to be back next year. Although the Mets won't add all of their savings back into the team, I believe there is enough room to add one additional key contributor with Reyes. Assuming Wilson is signed, that lines up a potential 2013 rotation of Wilson-Harvey-Niese-Wheeler. In total, that staff will likely cost somewhere between $20 and $25 million, leaving plenty of room in the budget to add another SP1 in the 2012-13 offseason. Let’s not completely write off 2012 either – a rotation of Wilson-Santana-Dickey(sporting a 2.85 ERA since 5/20)-Niese-Gee should be an improvement over this year’s pitching. If Santana can come back as an SP2, it would be like adding 2 free agents to the staff. Coupled with an offense that has scored the 6^th most runs in the NL, the Mets could easily be in the Wild Card hunt as early as next year.

Soft Phacts

A New Start

At the end of May I packed it in for my old blog. It just seemed that there were 40,000 Met blogs out there and that I was contributing the vast white noise of the blog-o-sphere rather than presenting a new point of view. Fact was, there were tons of blogs and MOST were better than mine. One of the blogs that I became so enamored with, was Mack's Mets. So I am considerably thrilled to be offered the opportunity to become a contributing writer for the blog. What can you expect? A lighthearted and optimistic view of the Mets with several helpings of snark, for good measure. Which leads us to the purpose for my inaugural post.

Soft Phacts: We've all watched enough CSI and Law and Order episodes to know that you can't put the bad guy away on a hunch. Well... I've watched enough minor leaguers fizzle to know that you can't project major league success on a single season. That can't stop me from putting on the rose colored glasses and pretending that everything will break perfectly.

Matt Harvey - When Matt Harvey was listed as the #2 prospect for the Mets going into 2011... I was skeptical. I'd seen too many high draft picks struggle out of the gate to project someone that high without him throwing a single inning in pro baseball. He then proceeded to make me look dumb, by blowing through the A+ league like it was populated by nutrition-starved preschoolers. Harvey struck out 92 in 76 innings and zipped his way up to AA in a flash.

AA... was a little less kind. Harvey skidded out of the gate with some iffy results in his first 3 AA starts but he's clamped down on the bleeding and has looked sharp in the following 3. His most recent start has my irrational brain thinking about Harvey's potential 2012 impact. This illustrates how willing I am to ignore the reality that Harvey still has plenty of work and would be best served by spending as much time as possible (in 2012) in the minors.

Phlavio's Rose Colored Glasses: 2012, September Call-up... 2013, Rotational Candidate in Spring Training

Jenrry Mejia - When Dan Warthen says, "Mejia might be headed to the bullpen." Is it rational to want to go to Warthen's house and give him a piece of your mind? Probably not, but I never claimed to be rational. Mejia is a starter until he proves that he can't be. Thus far... he's not done that. Thus far he was mis-handled by the Omar Minaya regime and suffered a couple of typical injuries. He'll be out for the first part of 2012 but... let's focus on the positives.

Mejia is filthy. Notice the order of players on this mini list? I think Jenrry is a better pitcher than the MUCH more highly touted Zack Wheeler. For one... he's closer to the majors and for another... he's been more successful in the pros. Though to be fair... he projects as a #2 pitcher or worse while Wheeler still has "Ace" potential. I'll ignore that for now and say that Mejia still feels like the more likely to succeed.

Phlavio's Rose Colored Glasses: 2012, Mid-Season Call-up... 2013, Rotational Regular

Zack Wheeler - Wheeler has not hit the ground running the same way that Harvey has, but lets remember that his STUFF...might be a tick above Matt's. Fact remains that Wheeler is not only a better pitcher than Carlos Beltran and 13 years younger... he's also 3 inches taller which is really important for stuff like... getting onto roller coasters. His 2011 has been fine. Nothing to worry about but it's clear to me why Harvey was so successful where Wheeler has struggled.

Somewhere between the pre-draft rankings and the start to 2011... Matt Harvey learned to throw his secondary pitches for strikes. Wheeler isn't there yet but he has the rest of 2011 to figure it out. That's right... 2011, I don't wait for people to "develop" I assume that my need for immediate gratification will be acknowledged and accommodated by every minor leaguer in the Met system. All Wheeler needs to do is learn to throw his curve for strikes and develop a useful change-up... in a matter of weeks.

Phlavio's Rose Colored Glasses: 2012, AA Pitcher... 2013, Long Look in Spring Training and a Mid-Season Call-up.

Jeurys Familia - Why does Familia get lost in the discussion of arms for me? It's not logical: He's had an arguably better year than Harvey, Mejia or Wheeler. It's not racial: At least... I don't think it is. Perhaps it's spiritual? For whatever reason I just don't see Familia as such an immediate success as Harvey or Mejia and I don't think he has the stuff of Wheeler. It could really just be the lime green backdrop to his photo. Frankly, he might have the best chance of being the first one of the group to make an MLB impact.

While Harvey was more impressive with K's in A+ baseball what was Famila doing? He was only preventing anyone from making meaningful contact with his pitches. His A+ WHIP was UNREAL. He got a deserving promotion to AA where he's been solid and consistently K-ing players with more regularity. If I was truly honest with myself I'd expect he'd be the first of the bunch in the majors. I'm just not so good at this self-honesty thing.

Phlavio's Rose Colored Glasses: 2012, Mid/Early Promotion to AAA, 2013, Rotational Candidate in Spring Training.

Generation 2K: The memory of Generation K is pretty lingering. As if a part of it is still with us... creepy. Why would we be quick to label a new bunch of prospects under a similar moniker to that dreadfully disappointing bunch? For one simple reason... WE ARE EXCITED. We are excited about a crop of pitching talent in the farm system that the Mets have not seen SINCE the days when Jason, Paul and Bill were still young kids with un-tapped potential. I just have to hope that this excitement doesn't ware off when I take these rosy specs off. The good news is: The DNA evidence, motive and plausibility match my hunch. Now all I need is a pair of sunglasses and song intro by The Who.

2012 Payroll, Sandy on Jose, Jeurys Famila, Angel Cuan, Jordany Valdespin

2012 Payroll:


The financial difficulties of retaining Reyes at $20 million a year are real, and may not be feasible without trading Wright. Consider next season Johan Santana (who may not pitch this year) makes $24 million, Jason Bay $16 million and Wright $15 million. And if Francisco Rodriguez finishes 55 games -- he's on pace to finish 60 -- he gets $17.5 million. Then there's R.A. Dickey at $4.25 million and Mike Pelfrey and Angel Pagan arbitration-eligible, which likely would take their salaries beyond $5 million apiece, if they're Mets. That's a heavy concentration of spending in a small group of players. It adds up to $86.75 million with K-Rod -- without Reyes factored in. Wilpon had suggested the payroll could be as low as $100 million next year, although Alderson intimated closer to $120 million. And before you suggest the Mets just backload Reyes' deal, consider Santana will get $31 million in 2013 with a '14 buyout, while Bay gets $16 million that season -- and potentially another $3 million if his contract does not vest for the following season. With Wright and Reyes, that would be an astronomical sum for four players without the overall payroll heading back upward. - http://espn.go.com/blog/new-york/mets/post/_/id/28324/mets-morning-briefing-7-4-11



Sandy on Jose:


Alderson is now leaning strongly toward authorizing a substantial offer after the season to try to retain Reyes, a free-agent-to-be, two sources with ties to Alderson told The Post. Even Reyes’ first 2011 injury did not seem to have dimmed Alderson’s belief that the Mets are best served working diligently to retain the All-Star shortstop. “He may be out just one day,” Alderson said when asked if even a mild hamstring strain could influence contractual strategy with Reyes. “Before we jump to any long-term conclusions, let’s see about this injury. I will say this, most players miss a few days at some point of the season, and so in that context this is not unusual.” - http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/mets/source_alderson_considers_RDHx5I0ZmH5CvY8fhx64CL#ixzz1R99VU9ko  
Jeurys Familia:


7-3-11: - http://metsmerizedonline.com/2011/07/best-mets-minor-league-surprises-mid-season-edition.html  - Jeurys Familia – Binghamton, the power armed righty has started 8 games for the B-Mets after 6 good starts in St Lucie to start the season. He is still looking for his first AA win, but his other stats are scintillating. He went into the year needing to refine his secondary pitches, (slider and change-up). The good news is, he has, and his off-speed stuff is developing nicely. This could keep him in the rotation and not force a move to the bullpen. In 45.2 AA innings, he is 0-2 with a 3.35 ERA, 42 H, 51 K and 20 BB, the league is hitting only .243 against this 6’3″, 21 year old.


Angel Cuan:


7-4-11: - Angel had to wait his turn earlier this year in Savannah. There simply were too many starting pitchers. The 22-year old is in his 4th season as a Met and actually impressed us the most in his first year (200*) with the VSL Mets. It’s not easy to go 1-8 and turn in a 3.13 ERA, with 74-K in 72.0-IP. Most of this year has been spent in the pen, but he’s turned in his second good start in a row last night. Big stats last night: 6.0-IP, 1-ER, 7-K.


Jordany Valdespin:


7-4-11: - Valdespin continues to be an enigma wrapped in a riddle. Yes, he went 4-5 last night and had two more stolen bases, but he had to try and stretch a single into a double and was out by a mile for the last out of the game. Your team is down by one in the last inning, with two out and you have to try and make the highlight film once again. Valdespin continues to show the Mets two sides of his game. One, his talent, and two, his lack of regard for team play.