You heard it here first. Sean Manaea will win the comeback player of the year at the end of this upcoming season. I can almost hear you all saying, “Wait! What?!”
Let’s begin by looking at how we got here.
In the 2022 and 2023 seasons, Sean Manaea was a decent left-handed pitcher throwing for NL west teams. He compiled an 8-9 record with a 4.96 ERA over 158 innings with the Padres, then went 7-6 with a 4.44 ERA over 117 innings with the Giants. The Mets picked him up for the 2024 season in free agency as a David Stearns project – turn an inexpensive, average pitcher into a star by leveraging the technology and instruction that the Mets had invested in. Manaea started the year in a similar fashion to his previous two years, though a little better. However, around mid-July after watching Chris Sale pitch agianst the Mets, Manaea started experimenting during a bullpen session and discovered a secret weapon. By lowering his arm angle, he was able to create a lot more deception with rise on his pitches, and batters struggled to adjust. He finished the 2024 season with a 12-6 record and a 3.47 ERA – a full run lower than his norm over the prior five seasons.
This remarkable change in performance earned him a contract extension worth $75M over the three year period from 2025 through 2027. It also earned him favored status with Mets fans, who naturally extrapolated his improvements into projection for stardom over the extended period. Most of you read the stories in the 2025 pre-season that vaulted him to the top of the rotation.
Unfortunately, during that same pre-season, Manaea suffered a right oblique strain during his workouts, and began the season on the IL for what turned out to be half of the season. He finally returned on July 13th but never returned to his 2024 form. There was no talk of further injury, but his appearances were so ineffective that the Mets moved him to the bullpen in mid-September after 10 mostly poor starts. Those starts lasted 4-5 innings and ballooned his ERA into the fives.
As impatient New York fans like to do, Manaea was then dismissed as a “bad deal”, Stearns was blamed for the contract extension, and many writers would not pencil him in higher than a fourth starter for the 2026 season. Even the Mets’ own site has him as a #5 starter behind Jonah Tong in the rotation!
With that history, I now head into my own projection. Manaea is the same guy with the same arm that he was in 2024. His 2025 season is a write-off because his oblique injury dramatically affected his cross-fire delivery, and even when healthy he mentally could not get the “feel” back from the prior year. But given a winter off to heal both physically and mentally, and over two months in Florida to work in the pitching lab and the back fields, I believe that between Manaea and the Mets’ coaching staff, they will find a way to return to the very effective 2024 pitching mechanics.
Manaea is 33 years old this year, which is not young for a pitcher, but not at an age where performance necessarily falls off. He has never relied on ultra-fast pitches to blow away batters, so his 92mph fastball could be just as effective as before with his deceptive delivery. He needs to get back to a better mix of pitches than he had in 2025. The difference between the 2024 and 2025 seasons in pitch mix is striking – it is pretty easy to tell that he didn’t feel comfortable on the mound.
A few months of supervised work in the lab and on the field should bring that all back. And when it is, one would expect a similar level of performance to his 2024 campaign with double digit wins and a mid-threes ERA.
Start polishing the trophy.
















