Are the 2014 Mets a Better Team on Paper? (Center Fielders)

     We have clearly improved at the C and SS positions and expect the same lackluster production at 1B, and the same solid production at 2B and 3B. However LF looks like its a real wild card since we have no idea who's going to be starting. Lets take a look at CF.

(***Note this takes into account the team as it is today. Steamer Projections are extrapolated out to 162 games for the starter only.)

2013

Players: Juan Lagares, Kirk Nieuwenheis, Rick Ankiel, Matt Den Dekker, Colin Cowgill, Jordany Valdespin, Eric Young Jr., Marlon Byrd
Stats: .222 AVG/.267 OBP/.348 SLG, 13 HR, 66 RBI, 12 SB, 29 2B, 6 3B, 35 BB, 165 K
(29th in MLB OPS)

     Just like with the LF position, a lot of guys played CF for the club last season. As bad as LF was until Eric Young Jr stabilized the position, CF was even worse. I bet fans don't remember that we actually opened up the season with Colin Cowgill as the starter. After he flopped we even gave Rick Ankiel a try until Terry Collins made Juan Lagares the primary starter in mid-May after he hit a ridiculous .346 in AAA Las Vegas.
     Lagares started slow batting only .171 in May but turned it on in the early summer months batting .271 in June and .353 in July before cooling back off as the season neared its end. In addition Lagares was flat out magical in CF posting a +21.5 UZR in CF which was 2nd in the MLB behind only Carlos Gomez who played 420 more innings. Extrapolated out to a 150 game season, Lagares would have posted a +33.1 UZR.
     Just to show you how amazing that would be, Since UZR became readily used in 2002 only 3 players have ever topped a +30 UZR. Alfonso Soriano as a LF in 2007 (+32.0), Franklin Gutierrez as a CF in 2009 (+31.0), and Manny Machado last season as a 3B (+31.2)

2014

Starter: Juan Lagares

Steamer Projections: .254 AVG/.295 OBP/.365 SLG, 9 HR, 61 RBI, 14 SB, 33 BB, 121 K

     Look....I've heard all the talk about keeping EYJ in LF and starting Chris Young in CF, but I just do not see how you can take out quite possibly the best defensive CF in baseball and send him back to AAA especially when he has already hit for an AVG over .338 in A+, AA, and AAA. There has NEVER been a question about this kid's bat and I believe he's in line for a strong sophomore season despite what STEAMER is predicting. I think he hits .280 with a .334 OBP and 20 SB.

Verdict: Moderate to Massive improvement.

Bonus! Here's some supporting footage if you've forgotten how good he is defensively.








Mack - I have no idea who I going to be the 2014 centerfielder but, if it is Lagares, I can't see him possibly duplicating his defensive numbers. I've always loved his game, but 2013 was a dream season in the field for him.

Bat wise, I also don't think he will fair well. Yes, he hit well in winter ball this off season but that's like a choose up game on the corner against girls.

So, if Lagares is the centerfielder, I see regression... which will eventually result in the loss of his job to Curtis Granderson (when Cesar Puello comes up).

Again... just my opinion.

Hot Stove Report: THEY LIKE IKE!, Byrdman goes to Philly, Interest in Chris Young

The Philadelphia Phillies have signed OF Marlon Byrd to a 2 yr contract for $16M (AAV: $8M). Included within the contract is a vesting option for 2016 for $8M. If Byrd reaches 600 plate appearances in 2015 or 1,100 plate appearance combined during the life of his contract, the option will vest. If not, it then becomes a club option for the Phillies. There is no buyout known at this time.

(Good for him...He bounced back nicely after being suspended for PEDs in 2012 and deserved to get a nice pay raise. That said, while the $8M per season isn't too cumbersome, that 3rd year is. Everyday starters generally have 625+ PA per season and Byrd currently slots in as one of those starters.  Marlon will be playing next season at age 36 and early Steamer projections only anticipate him hitting .256 with 12 HR and 51 RBI as they expect his Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) and Isolated Power (ISO) to normalize back to career norms. )

According to John Heyman of CBS Sports, a bevy of teams have inquired on what the Mets want for 1B Ike Davis. He specifically list the Houston Astros, Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays, Milwaukee Brewers, and the Colorado Rockies as confirmed suitors. Teams seem to view Davis as another potential Chris Davis change of scenery scenario.

(Sandy Alderson has to be salivating over the large number of teams that want Davis. Expect this to drag out for some time as Sandy goes back and forth from team to team trying to get more and more out of this deal. We may end up with a good OF'er or a MLB ready OF prospect when it's all said and done.)

Lastly, according to Marc Craig, via Twitter, the Mets are interested in CF Chris Young. Young played in Oakland last year and hit a measly .200 with a .280 OBP and 12 home runs.

(Meh...Am I missing something here? Young probably is no better than a AAAA OF  at this point in his career. If he can be had for a minor league deal then sure but we shouldn't sign him to be on our MLB squad. One could argue that he provides excellent defensive value but we already have a power hitting top notch defensive OF'er on our bench in Matt den Dekker.)

Mack Ade – AM Report – 8-15-13 – Travid d’Arnaud, Raydel Medina, Jake deGrom, John Church, Matt den Dekker

 

Don’t you think that MBL should stop playing those Bryce Harper “I play for October” commercials at this point in the 2014 season? 

 

Well, so much for going out to Los Angeles and kicking some Dodger butt. Last night was especially a tough loss, but it's just another in a series of game that the Mets were in and couldn't sustain. Doesn't it seem like we always have the lead? Anyway, I hope we can split the next series, get hammered again by the Braves, and finally get on to the task of trying to put a deal together before the August 31st deadline. It' s time to move on (see later comments on TC about this).

 

Ashley Marshall –

While John Buck is on call for the arrival of his third child, Travis d'Arnaud got the call for his first taste of the big leagues. A spot behind the plate will open up for the Mets when Buck departs on paternity leave, and with the team in Los Angeles, it will be all too easy for its No. 2 prospect to move over from Las Vegas. When he does make the jump, it's expected to be a short one as Buck's leave will only be three days. But this might be the time to jump on d'Arnaud anyways. The 24-year-old backstop is back in the PCL after missing almost four months with a broken left foot, but if his results since his return are any indication, he hasn't missed a beat. The California native is 7-for-13 with a homer, three doubles, three RBIs and four walks in four games so far. http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130814&content_id=56890548&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb&sid=milb

 

The Reds have signed 20-year-old Cuban outfielder Raydel Medina for $400,000. Medina played for the Cuban youth national team at the 16U World Championship in Taiwan in 2009, a tournament that also included Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor, Rangers second baseman Rougned Odor and Red Sox shortstop Tzu-Wei Lin. Media performed well at the tournament, hitting .444/.516/.852 over seven games, going 12-for-27 with a homer, two triples, four doubles, four walks and three strikeouts. He ranked second on the Cuban team in slugging and OPS, behind only Guillermo Aviles. http://www.baseballamerica.com/international/reds-sign-cuban-outfielder-raydel-medina/

 

 

I was on the phone with Gary Seagren yesterday and he asked me what I’d been hearing about around Met-land. I told him that I hadn’t talked to anyone since the last time he and I talked on the phone, which was about two weeks. I guess I have to a certain degree mentally shut down at this point in the season. I think the Mets have made a wonderful .500 run in July and August, but there just isn’t enough front end talent on this team to survive the injury loses of David Wright, Bobby Parnell, and now, Wilmer Flores.

I’m not recommending you all go watch Netflix, but it is time to become realistic about this team and start setting it up for a spring return. This wouldn’t be a bad time to bring back Ruben Tejada (if Flores winds up on the DL). I would hope that the Mets did everything they could to keep Flores off the DL even to the point of operating for a week with a 24-man roster. There is going to be interest in him during the off-season and the last thing you want to do is tag him right now with an injury tag.

The Mets have done a very good job of depleting their minor league upper levels of talent (though, currently, only 10 of the 25 men on the squad came out of the system). There are people; however, that I would like a peek at in September if, for no other reason, to showcase them for a possible future trade.

A few are:

                SP Jake deGrom – DeGrom has had some success at the AAA-PCL level, something that is very difficult to do. Much of that success has been accredited to the addition of his new curve (or ‘slurve’, depending on who you talk to) and his continued ability to pound the zone in the 93-95 range. It’s obvious that there is no room for him in a future Mets rotation, but I don’t see him as a reliever either. No, this is one of the Mets major trade bait in the off-season and, if you want a full time decent outfielder roaming the CitiField green every night next year, you want to keep rooting for this guy in Las Vegas.

                RP John Church – Church has a very good season this year for Binghamton (32-appearances, 3.44), but he has now put up 15 more in Las Vegas with an incredible ERA of 1.00 (2-ERs in 18.0-IP). It seems like I’m the only person that ever writes about this guy and I’d really like to see a look at him this season in Queens. Again, I’m not sure about where his future will be, but it definitely should be on the mound somewhere throwing quality relief. His stats prove worthy (58-K, 18-BB 54.2-IP) for the shot.

OF Matt den Dekker – I’m really not that impressed recently with the throwing arm and general defense of Eric Young Jr. I know that ‘DD’ is only hitting .286 at Las Vegas (anything under .400 there seems to suck), but I’d like to see the Mets use September as an extension of spring training and make sure every potential outfielder at the top level of our system gets a shot to, first, compete, and, secondly, be showcased. It den Dekker’s turn.

Of course, all this might be a moot point after just being told that Terry Collins intends on using the veterans in September over playing the kids in the system. Is this an attempt at another contract for TC? I almost wish he was already under contract for at least another year so this team could spend the rest of this season setting up for 2014. Do we really want to see more of John Buck or don’t you think this would be a good time to play Travis d’Arnaud every day?

Mack Ade – AM Report – 8-12-13 – Noah Syndergaard, Andrew Church, Gavin Cecchini, Danny Muno, Matt den Dekker, Alex Rios

 

P Zack Dotson has been activated and sent to Kingsport.

 

The demotion of P Jeremy Hefner comes at a time that this team is beginning to become much more relevant. Everything positive around this team lately starts with how the first six innings are being played.  It's time to play who is going to matter in 2014 and beyond and, frankly, Hefner isn't. Toss this up to the return of Jenrry Mejia.

 

Noah Syndergaard continued to dominate at the AA level in a way that neither Matt Harvey or Zack Wheeler ever did. The Mets have begun to cut back his innings and Saturday night he was limited to only 56 over five innings. 41 of them were strikes. Only two produced hits and no one crossed the plate. His AA-ERA is a minuscule 1.76 and it’s become quite obvious that the Mets now have three untradeable rotation pitchers (ironically, Wheeler was sitting at 96, including his last pitch, the same night Thor thought he tossed his sixth B-Mets win). Things are going to get an awful lot easier rooting for this team very soon and it gets even more exciting if Jenrry Mejia keeps throwing the way he has so far since recovering.

 

The Mets might want to consider shutting down 2013 2^nd round draft pick, SP Andrew Church. He continues to struggle with the GCL Mets (this time giving up 7-R in 5.1-IP on Saturday. Church’s seasonal ERA is 6.04 and rising, after seven games, four starts. We’re also talking only 13 strikeouts in 22.1 innings pitched. He’s 18-years old and has a long way to go and, right now, it just isn’t working.

 

One of our 19-year olds, SS Gavin Cecchini, is beginning to show some of the reasons he was picked by the Mets as the number one pick in the 2012 draft. He actually got off to a good start this season, hitting .292 in June for Brooklyn; however, an ankle injury cost him most of July. When he did play then, he was highly ineffective (2-26, .077), but he returned to the starting lineup on July 26^th. He’s been on fire in August (.395) and had two more hits on Saturday night. A lot of us have been very critical of this pick (especially me), but after watching the rebirth of Juan Lagares and Wilmer Flores having eight RBIs in his first five major league games, maybe we need to give some of these kids a longer string.

 

Steve Randel on PEDs -

The fact that many of the accused are Dominicans makes perfect sense. In the D.R., only two things are important: baseball and the Catholic Church. Kids dream of playing “pelota” in America when they’re still wearing diapers. Before their teen years, serious youngsters and their families are already looking for a “buscon,” the fastest-rising profession on the island. These guys act as an adviser, personal trainer and a salesman of sorts, assuring everyone that he is well-connected. The ultimate goal for these prospects is to play in the Dominican Summer League by their 16th birthday, where they’ll get exposure and be eligible to sign a big-league contract. The competition is fierce, and also includes the best talent from Venezuela, Colombia and Central America. For scouts, it’s one-stop shopping. Looking for an edge, this is when many of these kids often start experimenting with creams and lozenges that produce muscle growth and testosterone, which are often supplied by the “buscon” for an extra charge.  http://throughthefencebaseball.com/latinos-and-ped-scandal/34149#5p9DG5K8lL4siuX0.99

 

 

MARK EX,MLB on  DANNY MUNO -

WHAT THIS KID IS DOING IS INSANE, HE'A LEAD OFF MAN WITH 68 RBI HE'S SECOND IN THE LEAGUE IN WALKS AND SINCE HE BECAME THE LEAD OFF MAN THIS TEAM IS 56 AND 28 AND SINCE JUNE 1ST HE'S HITTING 360.........PUT HIM ON THE 40 MAN NOW WE CAN'T AFFORD TO LOSE THIS GUY....THIS KID IS OLD SCHOOL HE GETS DIRTY AND IS A TOTAL BASEBALL RAT.  BEEN THERE

Mack – Danny Muno fans have been rare here lately. The biggest problem is his increasingly decrease in batting average over each level (2011 – Brooklyn - .355… 2012 – St. Lucie - .280… 2013 – B-Mets - .259. Yes, he has 78-BB, but the OBP is only eight points above the year prior (.395 vs. 3.87). Most importantly, there really is nowhere for him to go until the Mets figure out the Daniel Murphy, Wilmer Flores, and Ike Davis mess. As long as Davis hits, the only future for Flores is second, which will completely block Muno. My guess is Brandon Hicks will be released in the off-season and Muno will move up to Vegas.

,

Derek Showerman asked -

Does Matt Den Dekker have anything else to prove in the minors?

                Mack – Well, I believe so.

First, this is a game of attrition. The Mets have nine minor league teams with at least four outfielders each, all trying to become one of the three starters in Queens.

Den Dekker had centerfield in his back pocket after shining during spring training last March, and was sent back to have one more year in the minors to work on his K/AB ratio (that continues to be a problem). Injuries (broken wrist) then landed him on the disabled list and opened up an opportunity for Juan Lagares to play centerfield this year for the Mets. We’ve all enjoyed Lagares’ respectful hitting, but it’s his defense in the outfield that has been the difference.

A lot of outfielders had had their chance recently (Lucas Duda, Kirk Nieuwenhuis), but, for now, Eric Young Jr., Lagares, and Marlon Byrd will play every day for the remainder of this season, until it become irrelevant.  After that, I see Cesar Puello being added to the mix around July 2014 and probably at least one outsider bought or traded for in the off-season.

Wrist injuries take a while to come back from and den Dekker’s 2013 season (168-AB, 3-HR, 27-RBI, .274) are not the kind of numbers that get you to Queens, especially after hitting 17 home runs in both the 2011 and 2012 season. Lagares earned his trip east with a .346 Las Vegas batting average this year.

IMO, at best, den Dekker now has a 2015 ETA.

 

Texas traded Leury Garcia to CWS for OF Alex Rios. Garcia was not listed as one of the top 20 prospects for Texas. He had an excellent season in 2012 for AA-Frisco (377-AB, .292-BA, 31-SB) and did have 52 at-bats for the parent club this season (.192). This would be like trading either Ruben Tejada or Justin Turner for Rios, which tells me only one thing… Sandy Alderson is not looking for these kind of shot term solutions for a team that’s obviously going nowhere this season. This looks like a great deal for Texas and seems to seal the fate of Nelson Cruz going to another team next year. He will play 2014 as a 33-year old and his 27/76 output would make quite the addition to any team’s roster.

Mack Ade – AM Report – 6-28-13 – Ricky Nolasco, Rehab Returnees, Travis Taijeron, Matt den Dekker

LAD have made progress in the talks for Marlins right-hander Ricky Nolasco

I just don’t understand how the Commissioner of Baseball can just continue to stand by and let one man single handed dismantle an entire baseball team.

According to ‘Cot Baseball’ the Marlins had a 2012 team salary of $101,628,000. It has been reduced to $50,526,900, of which $12,500,000 was still being paid on players long gone or trades long traded, and $11,500,000 is being paid to Nolasco.

The math is pretty simple here. $50,526,900 minus $24,000,000, totals to a current 2013 salary after this trade is eventually made of $26,526,900.

We’re talking a major league baseball team in the 44^th largest city in America. This doesn’t count Ft. Lauderdale either.

The team will be left with one, I repeat, one ballplayer with a contract past this season (Jeff Mathis) and that’s only a 2014 $1.5mil commitment.

And, the most important thing is the fact that the team is dead last with only 27 wins in 77 games, has the lowest home attendance in baseball, and averages the least amount of people attending a home game in baseball.

Any Board of Directors would remove this guy, but the problem is we aren’t talking about a publically traded company. No, we’re talking about one man who bullshitted the city into a new stadium and bullshitted his players into singing one year deals (which, by the way, will never happen again). We’ve already seen the first round draft pick this year, high school LHP Matt Krook, say no-way Jose. Agents throughout the league are steering their clients away from this team and you will never see a major free agent sign a contract here without a long term guarantee.

No, Miami is operating like a foreclosure and the Commissioner should be ashamed of himself.

The Mets are getting healthier.

                                As of 3:32pm on 6-27, there are ‘technically’ six New York Mets in various stages of rehab.

RP Pedro Feliciano – Feliciano is actually listed as part of the Binghamton roster. The lefty has given up only one earned run in nine outings for St. Lucie (1.93) and Binghamton (0.00). He seems pretty close to being ready -  eventual assignment: Queens

RP Tim Byrdak – Byrdak is just beginning his rehab assignments, with two on June 24^th and June 26^th. His combined stats at St. Lucie: 2.0-IP, 0-R, 3-K. I expect him to move on the Binghamton by the end of the week -   eventual assignment Queens

RP Shawn Teufel – Teufel came off the DL and pitched for Brooklyn on June 25^th (2.0-IP, 0-R, 0.00). He’ll probably work his way to St. Lucie and then the Mets will have to decide whether to send him to Binghamton or Las Vegas - eventual assignment: Binghamton or Las Vegas

SP Michael Fulmer – A nice rehab debut on June 2th for the GCL Mets: 6.0-IP, 0-R, 6-K. Watch for him to remain with the GCL squad until he is sent across the complex to the team he was scheduled to pitch for on opening day this year - eventual assignment: St. Lucie

SS Ruben Tejada – Tejada was supposed to start his rehab with the GCL Mets on June 26^th, but they have been rained out the past two days. The Mets aren’t known for shipping rehab players around their whole system. Look for Tejada to go from GCL to St. Lucie, then probably Las Vegas. At that point, he’s keep his bags packed - eventual assignment: Queens

CF Matt den Dekker -  Is currently listed as a ‘non-roster invitee’ on the St. Lucie roster. He will slowly work back wrist strength and may miss Binghamton and go to Las Vegas for some good thin air to get healthy on. – eventual assignment - Las Vegas

So…

What happens if Tejada, Byrdak, and Feliciano are all activated on the same day and put in the same taxi?

Who goes down/DFA’d/cut?

My guess… Valdespin, Edgin, Hawkins

                                               

Travis Taijeron – combined A+/AA – 241-AB, .290/.376/.573/.949, 14-HR, 39-RBI, 73-K, 27-BB

                                My job is to keep bringing you back to players that you need to keep an eye on.

Taijeron is developing into prospect material as I type J There’s a lot of time being spent with him in Binghamton, trying to get him to become more patient at the plate. Let’s face it, the quality of pitching at the AA level is going to be far better than it was at St. Lucie. Taijeron struck out 28% of the time in A+ ball, but is currently striking out 27% at AA. No change. His immediate problem is the fact that he’s not walking anymore, lowering his OBP from .379 to .298.

He’s not going anywhere else this year and the hope is he finished the season in the combined 20-HR/55-RBI, range.

Right now, Taijeron is #2 behind Cesar Puello on the internal boards. I’ll keep you up to speed on his progress this season.

Monaco Jr., Martin L  -

Mack, Looks like either MDD has either cut down on his swing, only 3KS in 41 at bats, or he has no power in this wrist yet. Either way only 10 singles so far. Do you think this is by design or the Mets are trying to turn him into a contact Punch and Judy hitter.? I was more thrilled when I thought he was the second coming of Jim Edmunds. Big swing and great defense.

                                Morning Martin.

                                                             The good news is den Dekker is off the disabled list.

The bad news is his current hitting has nothing to do with any learning process on not striking out. He’s just getting his feet wet (or is it wrist wet?) and ‘throwing the bat out there’ which generates only singles. I’m told his game currently isn’t very fluid so we’ll just have to give him some time.

One other thing about this league and the hitters on this team. There aren’t than many top pitchers going up against this team, meaning, if you are a big bat, you should be feasting on what’s being thrown your way. Yes, the addition of Jayce Boyd and Kevin Plawecki has paid huge dividends, but it doesn’t take a genius to look at the rest of the lineup, check their batting average, and project their chances of going all the way some day.

St. Lucie is a team with an excellent rotation, an average pen, two bats from Savannah, and that’s about it.

Sorry guys. Feel free to prove me wrong.

2-25-13 – Jordany Valdespin, Jon Niese, Matt den Dekker, Mets-Michigan Highlights

Matt Harvey - 2 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K, 39 pitches (25 strikes)

Rafael Montero – 2.0-IP, 20-pitchers, 16-strikes, 92-93, 94

Mike Kerwick‏ - @mikekerwick

An NL talent evaluator who saw Wheeler yesterday and Harvey today said Harvey is better right now. "[But] not much. They're pretty close."

Hi Mack, Well I'm just off finally getting my "fix" of Mets baseball...damn, it was a LONG off season and a few points if I may. First can they PLEASE stop talking about Wheeler and D'Arnaud making the club out of spring training. Like were gonna lose a year of team control for a month in Vegas. Look, I know their chopping at the bit for these kids and I get it but let’s be real here. Second, I find it curious that both Niese and Spin got no love coming into the spring and I don't get it. Spin according to scouts had a good winter report and Niese had a breakthrough season last year and could be our opening day pitcher  I have NO expectations about Johan this year except dumping the salary whenever we can and that was before the no velocity thing). When you think about a Wheeler, Harvey, Niese top 3 it really gets you excited. Why Spin and Den Decker aren't talked about more maybe you could comment on. With Duda in left we HAVE to have a centerfielder who can cover the ground and he's our best defensive OF prospect and has speed and power, does he K a lot...who doesn't these days, but now is the time to try him out. Spin has by far the most overall talent and should be given every opportunity at second while Murph recovers and then try him in right. I like Byrd as a 4th or 5th but the kids should play. Thanks, Gary Seagren

                        Regarding Jordany Valdespin, it’s no big secret that no other Met wants to have a locker next to this guy. He sits there after every game intragraming, Facebooking, and Twittering pictures of himself. This is one seriously distorted guy who also has a problem with authority. There have been multiple suspensions in the minors plus multiple times that players in the major league clubhouse have had to pull him aside and read him the rules of the team decorum. He’s not going to change, but, as long as he can produce better than the other utility players around him, he’ll stay on the team. It’s really kind of sad because we will never know how talented he could have been if he allowed himself to be coached.

                        Regarding Jon Niese, I agree with you that most fans take Niese for granted. He’s a workhorse that just goes out there and does his job. Wheeler and Harvey are going to get most of the press and Syndergaard, Montero, and Tapia will be featured in posts by the minor league weenies. I think he will become a premier pitcher when he can settle into the SP4 role once Syndergaard comes aboard and matures. I think he’s a fine SP3 but he’d be a dominant SP4.

                        Regarding Matt den Dekker, dD has only two obstacles to climb before heading the Queens. One, he needs to stop getting off to such a slow start every time he’s promoted to a new level. Secondly, 343 strike outs in 1194 professional at-bats is simply unacceptable at any level. He’s get his turn, but not until he solves these two problems in his game.

            Collin Cowgill might as well take the rest of spring off. He went 2-2 in his second ST game, which included a walk, and RBI, a steal, and beating out a grounder to the whole for his last hit. It’s called “a Cowgill”. 7Train is, I’m sure, making the t-shirt as we speak. He had made the team.

             On the other side, Lucas Duda is really struggling with his new batting stance. It’s not that he’s striking out all the time… it’s that he’s striking out all the time so badly. This is the last thing you want to see happen to someone that needs a shot of confidence every day.

Regarding the Mets - University of Michigan Game:

                   Mets won 5-2

                   Jon Niese, Dillon Gee, Rafael Montero, Hansel Robles, and Carlos Torres pitched ... total 9-K, 3-BB, 8-H

                   2B/3B Wilmer Flores hit a home run

                   3B/SS Brandon Hicks went 2-3, 2-R

                   OF Marlon Byrd continued his 1.000 batting average, going 1-1.

1-29-13 – 2013 Bullpen, Matt den Dekker, Sandy Alderson, Sean Manaea, Sickels System Ranking

Mets announce Banner Day has been rescheduled for Saturday, May 11 prior to a 1:10 p.m. game vs. Pirates

Mark Simon‏ - @msimonespn

Mets pitchers had the highest rate of getting opposing hitters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone with 2 strikes in 2012- 45%

Dan Martin - 

Alderson was more optimistic about adding a pitcher for the bullpen, since there are several significant, available arms, though most are past their prime. Among them is former Giants closer Brian Wilson. Alderson and pitching coach Dan Warthen watched Wilson throw in California recently and the GM said he expects to see Wilson again “in the next several days.” The Mets are hesitant to hand Frank Francisco the closer job again after an ugly first year in New York that was followed by elbow surgery. Wilson is coming back from Tommy John surgery last year.

Look, we all know the disappointment everyone is feeling about the lack of quality of the outfield, but maybe it’s time to move on and strengthen another area. The starting rotation and infield are just fine and the relief crew looks like it just needs a little tweaking. Bobby Parnell, Frank Francisco, and Josh Edgin definitely have spots here, though Francisco’s actual role might be in question. My guess right now is that Greg Burke and Jeremy Hefner go into camp with a slot, while Jeurys Familia, Elvin Ramirez and Robert Carson are still trying to win one. The wild card is Pedro Felciano who I expect to step up. My guess right now is your LOOGY/ROOGY will be Felciano and Familia and the one addition to this staff may be a new closer.

Rob Castellano - 

OF Matt den Dekker - After tearing apart the competition at Double-A Binghamton in 2012 (.960 OPS), more advanced pitchers took advantage of the 25-year-old's overly aggressive approach at the plate in Triple-A (.629 OPS). He'll try to polish some of that swing-and-miss out of his game early in 2013 (28.5% strikeout rate) to justify an everyday role; however if all else fails he already features the best outfield glove that currently resides within the Mets organization. With the Mets current outfield situation in shambles -- not just offensively, but defensively as well -- expect to see a good amount of den Dekker whether he irons out the kinks in his offensive profile or not.

Sandy Alderson:

“We continue to look, but I think, realistically at this point, there’s not a lot left on the shelf, so at some point we have to realize that, well, perhaps the outfield is not the strength of our team. But at least going into spring training we may be looking at what we have and not being able to make an addition. There's a long time between now and the beginning of February. There's still some good players on the board. There’s still a lot out there and we’re looking. Well I’d say right now it’s an incomplete, but there’s still time in the semester, to give an educational metaphor. We’ve been watching the market, we know what’s available, we’ve known what’s available. We reconvene and review periodically, meaning every couple of days. There are a number of things that we’re currently involved in pursuing. But we’re hopeful we’ll have some additions before spring training starts, and I expect that we will have some additions, but at this point to say we’ve been patient is probably an understatement but that’s what we’ve been."

            Like I have said before, I’m fine with this off-season if it was to end right now. Sure, I wish there was a better outfielder and I think the pen could use one more anchor pitcher, but Travis d’Arnaud, John Buck, Noah Syndergaard, a top Latin prospect outfielder, Shaun Marcun, Greg Burke, and Pedro Feliciano for a 38-year old pitcher is fine in my book.

David Groveman

Rafael Montero is one of the Met top prospects and probably deserves to be in the top 5 based on his 2012.  Silly scouts might differ.  The reason he did so well here is because he limited walks and hits to an EXTREME level, so this might get a little wonky in AA but he does seem to be on track to be a front-end pitcher (based on numbers). Is Montero moving up on my list?  Yes.  How high?  4th?  He’s still likely a tick behind Snydergaard but based on this math it’s hard for me to place him below Nimmo or Fulmer and it’s really close with Wilmer Flores.  2013 will be a defining year for Montero and could make things interesting for 2014 and beyond with the Mets.

Groveman has always been high on Montero and I agree with him that 2013 will be the year that one of the younger prospects separates himself from the pack. Montero impressed at two levels and should return to St. Lucie because he only pitched eight outings there; however, time and prospects march on and the projected Lucy squad looks filled with last year’s Savannah’s starts. I hope they don’t rush Montero too fast. My breakaway money is on Domingo Tapia, who will pitch in Florida with the press concentrating on others like Noah Syndergaard and Michael Fulmer. 

Timothy De Block - 

College pitching looks to the be the strongest at the top of the board with Mark Appel, Ryan Stanek, and Sean Manaea. Mark Appel has the strongest stats and career to go off of right now and will likely have the least leverage in negotiations despite have Scott Boras in his corner. Stanek is more of the scouts dream with a nice fastball and wipeout slider to rack up strikeouts in the SEC. However, Manaea is almost a left-handed Stanek that is a little more rough around the edges with his mechanics but has a breakout performance in the Cape to back him up. All three of them profile as frontline starters with the Ace ceiling. I need to see more of Manaea this season with how he performs and develops with a close look at his mechanics. If he continues to post good numbers and I start to like some adjustments in his mechanics, I may be drooling my June. I think he has the highest ceiling of all the draft prospects right now but his floor is considerable lower than the other two pitchers. But, because of the ceiling, he is my pick right now.

You regulars here know I write a weekly column for www.bigleaguefutures.net and keep up a composite mock draft throughout the year. This is a good post to get up to speed on the draft so give it a click… BTW, I agree that Manaea will go #1.

There’s no one better at this than John Sickels so I was quite impressed with where the Mets faired here 

(http://www.minorleagueball.com/2013/1/28/3925786/2013-baseball-farm-system-rankings):

1) St. Louis Cardinals (ranked #5 last year): Strengths: Everything. They have pitching, hitting, high upside, and depth. They have a proven track record of player development. Weaknesses: none really. They could use a shortstop with a better bat but so could most teams.

           

NL East:

8) Miami Marlins (29)

12) New York Mets (15): Strengths: strong at the top with trade acquisitions Zack Wheeler, Travis D'arnaud, and Noah Syndergaard all ranking as Grade A- prospects. Pitching in general is a strength, with large amount of depth behind the top group. Weaknesses: impact hitting behind D'Arnaud and Wilmer Flores.

20) Philadelphia Phillies (24)

25) Washington Nationals (14)

27) Atlanta Braves (8)

Shaun Marcum, Lucas Duda, Pedro Martinez, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Matt den Dekker

Shaun Marcum, Lucas Duda, Pedro Martinez, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Matt den Dekker

As of right now, regarding the off-season, the Mets have given up C Josh Thole, C Mike Nickeas, and SP RA Dickey for C Travis d’Arnaud, C John Buck, SP Shaun Marcum, 2B Omar Quintanilla, SP Noah Syndergaard, RP Jesus Feliciano, RP Greg Burke, and OF Wuilmer Becerra.

Lucas Duda:

            “It’s good to get back on the field again. I’m swinging the bat and things are fine. Dave Hudgens and I will be working every day until camp opens. Last year was a tough year for me. That’s in the past. I’m looking forward to putting up the kind of numbers I’m capable of.”

Pedro Martinez named Red Sox special assistant to the general manager

Q - What's the best-case for Kirk Nieuwenhuis? I see him as a 4th OF on a good team but many of my fellow Mets fans believe he's a capable starter.

Keith Law - Fourth outfielder, definitely.

Q - Would a platoon of Nieuwenhuis and van Dekker equate to a capable major league CF?

Klaw - Since they both hit left-handed, I'm inclined to say "no."


Projected Rotations:

2013-A:  Johan Santana, Jon Niese, Matt Harvey, Dillon Gee, Shaun Marcum

2013-B:  Matt Harvey, Jon Niese, Shaun Marcum, Dillon Gee, Zack Wheeler

2014 -   Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Jon Niese, Dillon Gee, Jenrry Mejia

2015 -   Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Jon Niese, Noah Syndergaard, Rafael Montero

I May Be Wrong, But… Matt den Dekker, Matt Harvey, Darin Gorski, Proving Goodwill

 • Den Dekker has been one of the few positives in a camp of duds. He’s basically done nothing wrong, but his defensive play in centerfield makes one dream of the days we won’t have to worry about anything hit out there. There was a shot a couple of days ago in the gap between center and right that made every fan say ‘fuck, there goes another gap double’. And then, all of a sudden, here comes DD out of the left side of your TV screen and he actually was decelerating while he hauled the ball in. It’s going to be so much fun this season watching him in Binghamton, Kirk in Buffalo, and both of them fighting it out for the future CFer at Citifield. The loser gets to help Jason Bay pack his bags.

 • The Mets brass did a smart thing on Wednesday. Knowing that the beat press would never go to an away game on the other side of Florida, they held back Matt Harvey and had him throw in an intrasquad game. The press wandered over to the minor side of Lucy’s complex and wrote about a superior outing by Harvey. I can’t tell you how many times I was the only reporter watching these games, but now, everybody is future crazy.

 • It was pretty exciting to see LHP Darin Gorski in the game yesterday. It was even more exciting to see him sitting at 92. A lefty throwing a 92mph fastbll is the same as a righty throwing 95. Add to that a superior curve and Gorski just might be the real deal. Wouldn’t that be something… another SP prospect that will be ready by 2014.

 • The Madoff judge says that the burden of proof falls on Fred rather than the investors that got fucked. God, I wish this was on Court TV.

The Keepers - #18 - CF - Matt den Dekker

18.             CF    Matt den Dekker

6-8 fr. Mack: Round 5 - #152 overall – OF Matt den Dekker – First of all, this is one of the top defensive outfielders in the NCAA. His arm is okay but his overall play in the field is first team defensive. Secondly, den Dekker is a speedster on the base paths that projects out as a 20-25 steal per season guy. Had a real bad junior year which cost him being drafted anywhere decently last year. Bounced back this season by leading the Gators in hitting (.355). This season: 12th in the SEC in batting average, 10th in hits, and 6th in steals. You’re not going to find much pop here my guess he has excellent potential to become a major league utility outfielder. - Projection: First of all, this was an excellent 5th round pick. den Dekker was projected by most of the experts as going earlier, based on his talent, not whether or not he can be signed. Draft Rating: “A”

6-22-10: - The Mets selected Gator center fielder Matt den Dekker in the fifth round. A lefty with plus speed and some power potential, den Dekker has always intrigued scouts. But the production has always been a little short. As a senior, den Dekker should be one of the easiest players to sign in the draft who still has some upside

8-12-10: - Matt den Dekker is off to a good start in Savannah. The Sand Gnats don’t get too many early round draft picks. They’re usually sent directly to Brooklyn; however the Cyclones has a trio in the outfield that are leading their team to the playoffs and den Dekker’s late signing caused a change in plans. Mets fans got their first glimpse of Matt when he was showing off with circus catches in the CWS this year. He’s always been touted as a great defensive centerfielder, but his bat has been alive in Savannah as well. It’s early on, but his combined stats for the GCL Mets and Gnats are: .323/.400/.419/.819. You might remember my original analysis of his pick. Here’s what I wrote on June 8th:   Round 5 - #152 overall – OF Matt den Dekker – First of all, this is one of the top defensive outfielders in the NCAA. His arm is okay but his overall play in the field is first team defensive. Secondly, den Dekker is a speedster on the base paths that projects out as a 20-25 steal per season guy. Had a real bad junior year which cost him being drafted anywhere decently last year. Bounced back this season by leading the Gators in hitting (.355). This season: 12th in the SEC in batting average, 10th in hits, and 6th in steals. You’re not going to find much pop here my guess he has excellent potential to become a major league utility outfielder. - Projection: First of all, this was an excellent 5th round pick. den Dekker was projected by most of the experts as going earlier, based on his talent, not whether or not he can be signed. Draft Rating: “A” The Mets have five interesting lower-level outfield prospects in there system… den Dekker, Cory Vaughn, Darrell Ceciliani, Pedro Zapata, and Cesar Puello. All represent limited pop, but lots of speed, gap hitting, and excellent defense. It will be interesting which one of these rises to the top in 2013.

11-23-10: - OF Matt den Dekker – 23/yrs. old - I started out thinking that den Dekker would be higher up the chain than this, but the fact is he played 2010 way above his projected ability. This isn’t saying he’s overrated. It is; however correct to say that guys like Darrell Ceciliani, Cesar Puello, and Cory Vaughn, are, prospect wise, more qualified to be on this list first. Either way, D.D. will move on to Lucy to play in an all-star outfield which will eventually answer the question, who gets center, he or Darrell?          2011:  St. Lucie  2012:  Binghamton

3-30-11 – 2011 Forecast: - den Dekker only did one thing wrong in 2010 and that was refuse to correspond with me J The good news is he is an excellent defensive center fielder and can spray all over the field. The bad news is he’s much smaller than I had hoped he was and probably will never produce the kind of pop you want out of a center fielder. He’ll most likely play the entire 2011 season for St. Lucie, unless he is pushed by Darrell Cecilliani.

5-10-11: - Stock Up – CF Matt den Dekker – Dekker got the kinks out last year with the GCL Mets and went on to hitting .346 for Savannah in 104-Abs. He’s now 119-Abs into A+ ball and he’s hitting .336, so I guess we should start looking for a possible bump to offensive-less Binghamton. The important number here is the increase in his slugging percentage (.471 to .538), which include his first home run of his pro career. Dekker is one of those new, non-pop, outfielders that offer you spray to all fields, speed, and excellent defense. This could possibly play well in Citifield as a 2 hitter and CFer in 2013.

5-16-11: - The general consensus of Mets experts all agree that CF Matt den Dekker will most probably get bumped to the B-Mets once the first half of the season is over. He proved last year he could hit at the A-level (.346), and he is currently 9th in the FSL in hitting with a .331 BA.  den Dekker is also the top Mets defensive outfield prospect in the system and 23 of his 48 hits this season are extra base. Based on his current performance, and the lack of others I have had ranked higher in my “Keepers” series, I’ve moved him from 27th to 22nd.

7-22-11: - den Dekker hit his third home run in the past four games for Binghamton last night (Can you start a sentence with a lower case “den”?). It has taken him only 121-Abs at in AA to hit five home runs, while it took him  267-Abs earlier this year in A+ to hit six. I guess this is what they call maturing.

8-22-11 Observation: - CF Matt den Dekker – den Dekker is starting to figure out AA pitching, but the season will end soon. He will return to the Binghamton centerfield come 2012 opening day, where his increasing pop will hopefully continue to grow. The Mets fall desperately short on outfield talent right now, but that doesn't mean they should rush the talent they have in the system. Most probably, this is the future centerfielder in Queens, but it takes time. - ETA: 2013

3-7-12 - • The important thing to take away from Wedneday’s game is the fact that every position had substitutes come in… except centerfield. No one will tell you this, but this was an early test for Matt den Dekker. The Mets need a backup plan for center in case Andres Torres goes down, and the two being considered are den Dekker and Kirk Nieuwenhuis. The plot thickens.

I May Be Wrong, But… Matt den Dekker, Pedro Beato, Right Field, Bobby Parnell

·         The important thing to take away from Wedneday’s game is the fact that every position had substitutes come in… except centerfield. No one will tell you this, but this was an early test for Matt den Dekker. The Mets need a backup plan for center in case Andres Torres goes down, and the two being considered are den Dekker and Kirk Nieuwenhuis. The plot thickens.

·         Andy McCullough pointed out something on twitter that stood out like a bad reliever. The batters that faced Pedro Beato in the second half of last season had an .890 OPS.That’s pretty bad.

·         Fangraphs came out with their ranking of team’s right fielders. The Mets, who had Lucas Duda and Scott Hairston represented here, came in 28^th among 30 teams in the league. That’s understandable. Duda hasn’t even played an entire season yet. They like to call Lucas “The Big Lebowski” on Fangraphs, which is pretty funny.

·         Andy Martino wrote a good article today about Bobby Parnell and his attempts to hang on as part of the Mets bullpen. I think the Mets lost out here. There was a lot of chatter last year at this time and the Mets could have dealt off Robert for a decent prospect. There’s nobody in the system right now that can take his job away, so I believe he will go north come April, but his role as a Mets reliever has been reduced to pitching only when the team is way ahead or losing by a bunch.