Paul Articulates – Do we Hef the right guy?

There have been so many changes in the Mets organization since Steve Cohen purchased the team back in October, 2020.  We have seen front office changes, managerial changes, player development and scouting changes, and certainly changes in the player personnel throughout the system.

One thing that has not changed is the pitching coach, Jeremy Hefner.  Jeremy has been with the Mets since the 2019 season, and has been the pitching coach since that offseason – December 8, 2019 to be exact.  He has spanned the Mickey Calloway, Luis Rojas, Buck Showalter, and now Carlos Mendoza regimes.  This is highly unusual for any coach, as new managers usually like to hire “their own guys”.

Hefner has been the pitching coach for the power foursome of  Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler, and Steven Matz; he has seen Marcus Stroman, Carlos Carrasco, Taijuan Walker, Max Scherzer, and Justin Verlander come and go; and has recently brushed up on his Japanese for the start of the Kodai Senga era.

With all that outstanding pitching talent around, and nothing but a one-and-done playoff series to show, one must wonder whether the coaching has done the right thing to optimize the output of its staff.  There have been countless injuries to blame, but pitcher health is also a responsibility of the coaching staff as they dictate everything from innings to pitch count to pre-and post-game routings.  The staff manages inputs from dieticians and physical therapists to ensure bodies are properly conditioned and fed.  So once again, the question pops up in my head, “Do we have the right guy in charge”?

Sometimes a player or a manager hangs around longer than they should because they have a loyal friend in the leadership chain that has their back.  In the case of the Mets with the upheaval from the top down in their chain, there is no one left that was there in 2019 who could have saved Hefner.  So there must be a convincing argument that he is the right guy.

In the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, Hefner’s first as head pitching coach for the Mets, their staff ended the season with a 26-34 record and a 4.98 ERA which was good for 12th best in the 15 team National League.  In 2021, the staff had a 77-85 record with an improved 3.90 ERA for the full season which was 5th in the NL.  Their banner 2022 season where they recorded 101 wins also saw an improvement in the team ERA to 3.57, third in the NL.  However, their pitching did not impress in the pennant race and playoffs.  Last year included a significant regression to a 4.30 ERA and another bottom half finish in the NL for Mets pitching which has traditionally been the strongest part of their team.

It is hard to pin pitcher injuries on the MLB team staff in this era of mid-90’s arms; because players are developed from early in their careers to throw the ball harder and with more spin than most arms can endure.  At the same time it seems like the constant parade of high profile pitchers heading to the Mets’ injured list is a bit more rapid than the average MLB team.  From the list above, only Wheeler and Stroman could be considered as workhorse pitchers that avoided major injuries, and even with Wheeler the Mets’ decision to let him go to free agency before the 2020 season was partially influenced by health concerns.

Another aspect of pitcher development that I have questioned over the last few years was why the Mets could never seem to get new, promising talent over the top.  Rafael Montero, Seth Lugo, Tylor Megill, David Peterson, Jose Butto, Drew Smith, Paul Sewald, Miguel Castro, and many others came up through the system with great billing.  None of them became a prized pitcher within the organization, and most wore out their welcome and went on to other teams where some (e.g. Sewald) flourished.

Recently after Steve Cohen invested a ton of money in player development technology, and after some sideways comments from Justin Verlander, Mets fans became aware that we have been playing catch-up to other organizations which had amassed much more capable tools for understanding and improving pitching mechanics.  If the Mets staff had been denied the advantages of improved technology and techniques that other teams had, it may be reasonable to scapegoat the system and give Hefner a pass.

But in the ruthless business of baseball, where managers and their staff are quickly dismissed for failure to achieve yearly won-lost goals, it is very peculiar that the pitching coach without many success cases survives three management changes without being held accountable for his part in the lack of progress.

There is a promising group of pitchers moving their way up through the minor league system, and a brand new state-of-the-art pitching lab in St. Lucie to guide their improvement.  Their names should grace the back of major league uniforms within the next couple of years.  If we have indeed kept the “right guy” to coach them, then we should see a return to dominance for New York Mets pitching.

Reese Kaplan -- The Top Group of Bullpen Free Agents (1 of 2)

After somehow addressing the starting rotation so that 2024 is not a replay of 2023, the next huge issue for the Mets to consider is their embarrassingly bad bullpen.  Please don't take that evaluation as a criticism of missing-in-action Edwin Diaz nor recently rewarded year two pitcher Brooks Raley.  No, it's the everyone else who create question marks large enough to serve as runways for incoming pitchers from outside New York.

For this exercise the age restrictions are a bit less severe than they were for starting pitchers as the fact is bullpen arms tend to be more volatile than starters and it's much more difficult to predict long term placements.  Consequently, since you're likely looking at 1-2 year deals it is entirely reasonable to consider somewhat more senior pitchers who again need to have provided recently better than a 1.0 WAR rating which suggests a mean value of about $7 million.  

Free Agents to Support the Starters

Josh Hader deserves every penny he gets but it won't be from Steve Cohen who already has Edwin Diaz.

The number one arm on most team's lists after the not-considered Josh
Hader could possibly be Cuban bullpen star Yariel Rodriguez.  At just 26 years of age and having served as both a starter and reliever, you would think there would be a passel of interested parties who could envision this hombre as a large part of their bullpen roster for the upcoming years.  

Contradicting myself, given his age it's entirely possible he would perhaps be seeking a longer contract which would result is a more significant long term payroll commitment.  For teams that are in need of a closer or an 8th inning guy, knowing you could have someone provide high quality in that role for the next however many years would certainly be enticing.  

How good has he been?  Well, in his 2022 season pitching in Japan he delivered a 6-2 record with a 1.15 ERA over 56 appearances with a WHIP of a miniscule 0.915.  Agent guesses are a multiyear deal for between $40 and $65 million.

Jakob Junis is not exactly a household name and his stat sheet initially doesn't fill you with drooling anticipation until you peer at it a bit more closely.  For four consecutive years his ERA has come down markedly and his 2nd year in San Francisco isn't bad at all.  The ERA is still at 3.86 but look at the strikeout to walk ratio and you see he delivered over 10K per 9 IP while just issuing 2.4 walks.  

That's the sign of a quality arm.  He posted 2.0 of WAR in 2023 and while he's not likely going to get a mega-sized deal, he's showing the positive development to suggest he might be a bargain at under $4 million given his ending deal for $2.8 million.

Veteran failed starter Matt Moore has reinvented himself into a reputable relief pitcher who happens to throw from the left side.  During his bullpen career which has lasted just the past two seasons.  In 2022 for the Rangers he appeared in 63 games in relief finishing the season with a 6-2 record and a 1.95 ERA while delivering over 10 Ks per 9 IP.  His walks were alarming at 4.6 per 9 IP, but you can't argue with success.  

In 2023 combined for three teams Moore was nearly as good again, appearing in 50 games with a 5-1 record and a 2.56 ERA while his strikeouts went up a tick and his walks dropped almost by 50%.  Yes, he's a support arm worth considering.  He earned $7.55 million for his 2023 efforts after being mostly a walk-on flyer in 2022.  

He will be looking for similar money but for multiple years.  What works against him somewhat is his age as he'll be turning 35 for the 2024 season, but a two-year deal for perhaps $18 million total is $1 million less per season than what the Mets last year gave David Robertson who is older and right handed.

Chris Stratton is another veteran reliever who chose to do some of his best work on the national stage for the World Series bound Texas Rangers after a midyear deal from the Cardinals to Arlington.  His stint for the Rangers included 22 games with a 1-0 record and a respectable 3.41 ERA.  He finished the year earning $2.8 million and wouldn't break the bank for his next team as he approaches age 34.

Dylan Floro has had a bit of a scattershot career across six teams since his major league debut in 2016.  It's a bit surprising given his career ERA of just 3.42.  He's not a huge strikeout guy averaging under 1 per IP but he keeps walks in check and has appeared in as many as 68 games in a season as he did for the Marlins in 2021.  His ending salary of $4.2 million suggests he wouldn't break the bank and multiple pitchers of this caliber could quietly turn the Mets bullpen from a circus to a celebration.

Starter and reliever, Nick Martinez, may take on that old Seth Lugo role if he came to New York.  Turning 34 in 2024, he has had two straight commendable seasons in San Diego after a five year horrific duration in Texas.  In 2022 he was in 47 games (37 as a reliever, 10 as a starter) and provided a 3.47 ERA.  He followed that up this past season showing it was not a one-off accomplishment, appearing in 63 games (54 as a reliever and 9 as a starter) with a 3.43 ERA.  

That kind of quality is most appealing and after being out of the majors from 2018 through 2021 it should depress the size of his paycheck.  He was bought out for $1.5 million by the Padres so he is likely looking for a deal in the $6 million per year salary on a 2 year contract.  The versatility and performance are both intriguing.

We're far from done in the realm of bullpen free agents.  On Wednesday we will follow up with another dozen to consider who fall within our arbitrary parameters.

Remember 1969: Construction Ahead - Part 2

 

In my last post, I presented a possible offseason blueprint with the current free agents and some players rumored to be available via trade to accomplish the “pitching first” tradition of the Mets.

As we saw in the 2023 World Series, the option to build a winner with an offense first approach is certainly very viable.  Texas added some very good pitching, but their calling card was their offense.  No free outs there.  

So, let’s take a look at how the Mets might accomplish that.

This approach is somewhat limited in this year’s free agent market.   Obviously Shohei Ohtani is the best of the best out there, but for the money, he does not solve a lot of the Mets problem.   He would fill in at Designated Hitter and instantly strengthen the line-up, but does nothing to plug their other holes in Right Field, Second Base, and Third Base.   This is assuming that Jeff McNeil is the starting left fielder.  

A couple of assumptions are being made here: 

First signing Ohtani uses most of the budget for Free Agent signings.

Second, they need to now go all in on Mauricio and Baty at second and third, respectively.   They may (and should?) do that anyway, but there may be other less expensive ways to mitigate the risk if the 2023 years were all they had.  

Let’s leave Ohtani and his half-billion dollar DH spot behind and build an offense-first team without him. 

To build a truly dynamic offense, the best bat out there is Juan Soto.  There are a lot of very strong opinions out there with regards to trading for a one-year rental, but getting him in the line-up to one of the corners in the outfield (left is more suitable) is a must when building an offense-first team.   And passing on Ohtani leaves the funds to sign Soto to a long term deal.

Once Soto is in the fold, it’s time to look at the free agent market.   Cody Bellinger would be a nice bat, but he is going to be too expensive for the fix that he brings.   Also, he is a lefty, and with Soto, a righty would probably be a better focus.

So to finish up, Rhys Hoskins should be signed as the DH, bring in Lourdes Gurriel to play the other corner while keeping McNeil at second base.  

Brett Baty remains as the third baseman, as Ronny Mauricio has gone to San Diego in the Soto trade.

The other option is to include Baty in the Soto trade and sign free agent Matt Chapman to play third.    This is not my preference – the final three months of Chapman’s 2023 year were really poor.   They can get that from Baty. 

Two more pieces of business that must be done in this approach:    Sign Pete Alonso to be the first baseman for the next few years, and fill in the bench pieces.    They need a left handed hitting 5th outfielder that can run.  You obviously cannot build a team around a Travis Jankowski, but late inning speed and defensive substitution is very valuable to have.  A reunion with Jankoski would not be the worst thing. 

 The final ‘normal’ lineup looks like:

Nimmo CF

Lindor SS

Soto  RF

Alonso  1B

McNeil 2B

Alvarez  C

Gurriel  LF

Hoskins  DH

Baty  3B

The four subs are Jankowski, a catcher,  Nick Senzel (can play multiple positions) and a left handed hitting backup infielder that can play shortstop in a pinch. 

Starling Marte was packaged up in the deal with San Diego. (hey they had to take something back for the Mets to pay Soto's entire salary).   DJ Stewart flopped in spring training and was released.  

There are still a few too many strikeouts in the lineup, but with Nimmo and Soto being the on base machines that they are, they should get plenty of opportunity to score runs.  

This approach eliminates Yamamoto and any other big salaries for the starting pitchers, but they will be able to add some solid (and healthy) arms for a lot less money.  

I'm guessing this won't be the most popular option, but all comments are welcome to tweak this approach! 

My Spin - The Origin of MLB.com

 

Great true story. 

My older brother Bob made a career as an office manager.

For 30 years he was the office manager of Morgan, Lewis Bacheus, with home offices at 101 Park Avenue.

Office Manager of a grade school in Fargo is one thing.

Office Manager of the 3rd largest law firm WORLDWIDE, with offices in 90 countries is, well, a little larger than that.

You may remember a post I wrote with an interview with the Manager of the NYC mail room of (what employees called) "Morgan Lewis" who was that guy that took that famous photo on October 15, 1969 of Ron Swoboda making that crazy catch in a World Series game. 

(Never asked why the dude named Bacheus wasn't referred to by the employees. Must be more to this...).

Anyway, one of the tasks given to Bob by the chief Lincoln lawyer was to build their first website.

No one knew shit about those things back in those days, but Bob knew he had to do two things. One, find someone that could build a site and, two, pick a name for said website. 

It wasn't the easiest thing in those days to find a geek but he did.

It was then on to the name which he decided to do the common thing. Take the first letter of the three names and add a .com.

So Bob filed for, and was granted...

MLB.com

Some time passed and Bob's office phone rang. It was someone that worked for the Commissioner's office down the block at 245 Park.

They said they had tried to apply for the MLB.com website but they told Bob's law firm had already secured it. The Morgan Lewis site was still being built so Bob thought it was no big deal to let baseball take it away from the law.

He did this gratis.

All this was the start of a long standing relationship between baseball and Morgan Lewis. They wound up the law firm that baseball used for antitrust issues which led to a recommendation to the NFL suits to use MLB also.

Err... sorry. Can't use that handle anymore.

Tom Brennan - New Mets Bench Coach John Gibbons, and His 1984 Debut Year

SOMETIMES PLAYERS ARE MORE NOTABLE AFTER THEIR PLAYING CAREERS

John Gibbons, long-time MLB manager, was just nabbed as the Mets' bench coach.  Nice.

He was also a first round catcher draft pick of your NY Mets. 

In 1980, he was selected 24th overall.

In 1984, at age 22, he debuted with the Mets, and of course went just 2 for 31.  Mets debut like that - it is a rite of passage.

Clearly wasn't ready?  Not ready, although Gibbons had a great AA season in 1983, hitting .298/.375/.515.

But a few spring 1984 injuries set him back, at a time where real catching talent was badly needed by the Mets team. Seems the setbacks were career-altering.

Unfortunate, because Mike Fitzgerald, Ron Hodges and Junior Ortiz caught that 1984 season for the Mets.  The trio managed to rip a Ruthian 4 HRs and drive in 55 runs in 625 PAs that year, quite a paltry level of output at the dish.

No majors for Gibbon in 1985.

In 1986, at age 24, Gibbons put up a totally killer slash line for the Mets:

.474/.545/.842.  

Problem there, though, was he was only up to the plate 22 times that year.  

In 1986, the Mets catchers were far superior to the 1984 cohort.

Kid Carter was successfully absorbing most of the catcher at bats, with Ed Hearn capably gobbling up the rest.  

Gibbons was clearly blocked.

Thus ended Gibbons' MLB playing career. 1986, age 24, that was it.

After being in the Mets minors in 1987, he played for 3 other organizations in the minors from 1988-1990, before he hung up the spikes.  He was a good minor league hitter.  Surprising to me that he failed to catch on (no pun intended) at the big league level with someone else.

Even shirtless Patrick Mazeika played more in the big leagues.

But it got me looking at Gibbons' debut year of 1984 again.   

Maybe not for Gibbons, but lots of good happened for other Mets that year.  

Doc Gooden exploded on the scene at age 19.

Sid and Ronny had shown up on the scene, too.

Orosco was in the pen.

Strawberry, Hernandez, Backman, Foster, Brooks, and Mookie had fine seasons.

Kevin Mitchell at age 22 also snuck in 14 PAs; the Mets of course did not keep the super-promising offensive weapon for very long, only to see him win an MVP award elsewhere thereafter.

40 year old Rusty Staub had 18 RBIs in 72 at bats in his role as pinch hitter extraordinaire, fanning just 9 times in 79 plate appearances.  

Speaking of not fanning, Mets' pitchers went to the plate 399 times and fanned just 103 times. Take out the Bulldog, Walt Terrell, and the rest fanned just 70 times in 322 PAs, a pace that many actual hitters today would gladly take, including in the 2023 Mets minors.  

Gooden, at age 19, fanned just 14 times in 83 plate appearances!  And hit .200, while the older first round hitters Gibbons and Billy Beane went a combined 3 for 41? Huh?

How many 19 year olds in the Mets minors these days could have gotten promoted to the majors in 2023 and fanned just 14 times in 83 PAs?  

Simple answer: None.

Baseball Reference shows the 1984 Mets' "Pythagorean W-L" calculation. While the Mets went 90-72 that year, that calculation says they should have gone just 78-84  as they scored 24 fewer runs than they allowed. Remarkable outperformance by the Metsies, to win 90 rather than 78.  

But wait a second, with all those good players, how did they only score 652 runs?  

Short answer: These are the Mets.  Let me elaborate.

Besides the 3 catchers hitting like garbage, five other significant players (Ortiz, Heep, Gardenhire, Santana, and Chapman), had 1,043 plate appearances and compiled just 6 HRs and 55 RBIs.  

So those five and the 3 catchers in 1700 PAs had 10 HRs and 110 RBIs.  

Clear enough?  Typical Mets second string crapola. 

Why therefore did the Mets not win the pennant that year?  

Crappy back up players... 

...and the Cubs caught lightning in a bottle.  

They acquired star pitcher Rick Sutcliffe from Cleveland, where he was a sucky 4-5, 5.15 in mid-June; the Cubs gave up Mel Hall and Joe Carter, a very heavy acquisition price to pay and one the Mets really couldn't match, even if they had tried.   

The Mets led the Cubs by 1 game going into Sutcliffe's first mid-June Cubs start.

Sutcliffe immediately went unconscious. 

As a Cub, over the rest of the season? 

Insane. 16-1, 2.08, Cy Young.  

He started 4 times against the Mets, and the Cubs won all 4 of them.  

The Cubs went 62-36 after the trade, and the Mets finished 6 games out.

Had it not been for Sutcliffe's unconscious Cubs pitching for the last 2/3 of 1984, Dwight Gooden would have won both the rookie of the year AND the NL Cy Young award that year, at age 19. Mind-boggling.

Of course, if the Mets thought 16-1 by an opposing pitcher from mid-June on in 1984 was sickeningly mind-blowing, the next year in 1985, when the Cards barely edged the Mets out for the pennant, arch-villain John Tudor after Memorial Day was a sickening 20-1. Tudor drove me (as a Mets fan) certifiably nuts that year.

Moving back to marginal player Gibbons, he soon turned manager and was the 1998 Eastern League manager of the year for the Mets' Binghamton team.  

And later, he was 793-789 as a major league manager with the Jays. 

None as a Met.

1984 utility guy Gardenhire? 1200-1280 as a manager (Twins & Tigers). 

None as a Met.

(My brother told me his last garden hire quit after he got poison ivy, but let me stay out of the weeds and not digress...)

It was an exciting 1984 year for the Mets who, as in many seasons, were done in by paltry output from too many anemic, crapola second string players.  At least, though, this team had a bit of an excuse - it never expected Gooden to explode as he did, especially as the season went on, and prior season’s 1983 squad compiled a crapola 68-94 season, so ownership probably expected the Mets wouldn't make it that close.

The big Mets explosion, though, finally happened in 1986...when John Gibbons had the best slash line on the team.

Draft-wise, in 1980, the Mets had 3 first rounders: 

No-brainer Strawberry at #1, Gibbons at #24 and...Billy Beane at #23.  

Beane and Gibbons were basically bust picks, output-wise, but each had substantial alternate careers after their playing days ended, with Gibbons managing nearly 10 years in the majors later, and Billy Beane becoming Oakland's club head.

Beane was 1 for 10 as a Met in 1984.

In total, he had 301 MLB at bats, hitting with little success.  

His last season, he was up 79 times, no HRs, 11 RBIs, and NO WALKS, hitting .241.  

His team that year, the only year he played for them? Oakland. 

Quite fortuitous, as it turns out.

Lastly, it was interesting who was the #22 overall selection (by another team) that year: 

Terry Francona.  

Terry has a 1905-1627 record as a MLB manager. 

None as a Met.

Francona had a decent MLB career, with 1,827 plate appearances, hitting .274, and once even threw a clean 1-2-3 inning, with a K.

Some amazing picks at #22, #23 and #24 that year, huh?

As players, not so much, but in their subsequent roles, most definitely.

Reese Kaplan -- Finding Starting Pitchers Via Free Agency

So the subject on tap today is what pitching is available in free agency to help round out the Mets starting rotation.  If you can believe what has been said about the Mets wanting to build a younger and less expensive long term solution rather than a buy-a-pennant approach taken by Billy Eppler in the recent past, let's today focus on starting pitchers at age 32 or under with a WAR rating of 1.0 or higher.  You will note that some conspicuous names are missing from this list due to age (which often leads to inflated cost based upon past achievements) or most recent underachieving on the mound.

What Starting Pitcher Free Agents to Consider

Let's get the Japanese players out front as they don't typically have the same statistical equivalency as they have not yet appeared in the North American version of Major League Baseball.  There's nothing new to be written about youngster Yoshinobu Yamamoto who stands to sign a first-time contract in according to most reports in the neighborhood of $200 million.  

The question is for how many years and what opt-out clauses.  If we assume it's an 8-year deal, that's a pretty hefty nearly $25 million per season for a guy who has yet to throw a single pitch in America despite his equivalent multiple MVP and Cy Young awards in Japan.

30 year old Shota Imanaga is a left handed version of Kodai Senga and would be expected to net a similar deal for $75 million over a period of 5 years.  Given his track record that seems a more than fair price and someone who should most definitely be on the Mets front office radar.

We're leaving out Shoehei Ohtani who makes the performance metrics for sure as well as the age limitation.  Anyone bidding on him in this offseason is considering him a hitter first as he will be recovering from surgery which will make pitching unavailable for the 2024 season.  It's a hefty price to pay and no one is clear how much the recovery might also impact his hitting.  As hard as it is to say it, the team is probaby better off filling multiple needs rather than sinking more for one player than has ever been paid before for one man's services.

Blake Snell is coming off a truly awesome 2023 season and you'd have to think both he and his agent are ecstatic that his Cy Young award happened the year he's hitting free agency.  He's gone a bit up and down in his career, twice winning league ERA titles and sporting a winning record, a 21 win season and a career ERA of just 3.20.  His ending salary with the Padres is just over $16 million and with having turned down a Qualifying Offer he will cost not just money but draft compensation to the team that signs the big lefty.  My gut says to bypass Snell.

The 6'6" southpaw Jordan Montgomery picked a great time to shine.  He was doing rock solid work for the Cardinals this year before a mid-year swap to the pennant contending Texas Rangers where he was even better.  For the season the 10-11 record doesn't jump out at you, but the 2023 season ERA of a combined 3.20 ERA at an ending salary of just $10 million.  He'll be highly desirable based upon recent achievement and at age 31 should be able to net a 4-year deal.

A great strategy for the long term is paying attention to quality players who have been cut loose from their teams due to injury recovery.  Through that lens the Brewers' former star hurler Brandon Woodruff has a career ERA of just 3.10.  

David Stearns obviously knows him better than anyone else in the front office and can determine if it's worth considering extending him a contract knowing his shoulder surgery won't allow him to pitch at all in 2024.  If the window for winning truly is 2025 then it's a gamble worth considering.  His ending number was going to be $11.6 million before the Brewers non-tendered him.  How much it would take and how well he recovers are great unknowns, but it's certainly worth considering for the future.

If you truly want to roll the dice and damn the topedos from the fans and media, then you would have look at Los Angeles Dodgers' indicted star Julio Urías who may not be allowed to play for quite some time.  Take a quick look at the numbers and you see someone with a 60-25 record and a 3.11 ERA for his entire career.  He strikes out about 1 per inning and walks just 2.4 per 9 innings.  You can't argue with results.  You can, of course, argue with embracing the known perpetrator of domestic violence.  

First the Dodgers had to deal with the Trevor Bauer kerfuffle and now comes court dates for Urias.  I'd like to win games and on the mound Urias would help but I guess it's the question of human decency that suggests they continue looking elsewhere.

In the been there, done that perspective there's Michael Wacha.  Ummm...no.

While Eduardo Rodriguez formerly of the Detroit Tigers put together his best-ever season at age 30, for his career he's a pitcher who routinely hits the 4.00 ERA and doesn't seem to be a marked improvement over the in-house options but will cost much more than his ending salary of $14 million.  

One pitcher over the self imposed age limit of 32 is former NY Met reliever Seth Lugo who reinvented himself as a full time starting pitcher this past season with the San Diego Padres.  He finished the year commendably (and better than any Mets fans would have expected as he was a far more successful reliever than starter.  

He was 8-7 over 26 starts with a finishing ERA of 3.57 showing his usual good control.  Considering that as an aggregate for his career he's only logged about 2 full seasons worth of starts, I'd look past his 34 year age and consider him on a 2-year deal in the $10 million or so per year level to reward him.

Lucas Giolito is a love him or hate him kind of guy.  Many here feel that the Mets erred in not selecting him in the draft while others feel that his gross inconsistency makes him a less than stellar choice now.  For his career Giolito is just under .500 with a mid 4 ERA.  I'd take a hard pass considering he's already earning $10.4 million and likely is looking for more.  

Michael Lorenzen will begin his 2024 season at age 32 with a record slightly over .500 and an ERA of 4.11.  While that might be decent for a 4th or 5th starter the fact is the Mets already have those types in Jose Butto, Joey Lucchesi and Tylor Megill who would cost $6 to $8 million less.  Pass.

Former Chris Bassitt teammate back in Oakland, Sean Manaea stayed on the west coast with the Padres and Giants.  He's another back end starter with a winning record and a career ERA of 4.10.  He looks like he may be transitioning to a bullpen role at this stage of his career but since he's already earning $10 million he doesn't look like a top choice.

Another former Oakland hurler is the recovering Frankie Montas most recently of the Yankees.  His record is slightly better than some of the others with a career ERA of 3.90 but you never know after surgery what to expect when he returns.  I don't see he would be the best choice given his salary and uncertain health.

Jack Flaherty is an interesting pitcher who might come at a slight discount given his poor performance after a career with the Cardinals transitioned into a second half of mediocrity with the Orioles.  Even with his bad performance at Camden Yards he still sports a career ERA of just 3.75.  At age 28 he fits the profile and his ending salary for 2023 was $5.4 million.  If you offered up $6 million or so per year you might get his attention and he could be a long term back end starter.

Another name from the past is the still young but mostly horrific Noah Syndergaard.  He's bounced around trying to recapture his dominance during his Mets days but it has not gone well at all.  He still has a winning record and a career ERA of just 3.71.  However, he's been rapidly spiraling downhill and might take a one-year "prove it" kind of contract.  This past season he dropped down from $1 million to $13 million and likely will get significantly less in his new deal.  

I am not sure how low he'd have to go to roll the dice.  I'm thinking an incentive-laden contract with a low minimum base of say $7 million might do it.  

Trade are also possible as are some minor league free agent acquisitions without track records, but you are planning to reach into Steve Cohen's deep pockets to expand your talent pool, these choices are among the more interesting options available.  

Open Thread - How Much to Spend on Pete, and When?

 

Show Me The $$$$$$$$$$$$$

SPOTRAC’s Michael Ginnitti a month ago estimated the following contractual and destination-related outcome for Big Pete:

“Conventional 1st Base thinking says he plays out his $22M salary for 2024, then takes on another 8 years, $225M for the remainder of his career.

“We’ll….predict a larger than normal number, where the Mets buy out his final year of arbitration, converting that price tag into a signing bonus, finalizing a total contract at $30M per year.”

“9 years, $270M from 2024-2032, including a $22M signing bonus.”

What do you Mack’s Mets experts think of this?

PIITB By JD- Mets Updates

 Mets updates 

Happy Thanksgiving to all! I hope everyone had a happy and healthy holiday. 

John Gibbons

Back to the Mets.

The Mets have filled up most of the roles in the coaching staff this week. There are a few more guys staying than I would have predicted. However, I have faith in David Stearns. 

 

Manager: Carlos Mendoza

Bench coach: John Gibbons. Gibbons was actually drafted by the Mets back in 1980. He was a promising catching prospect but was derailed by an early injury. He managed the blue Jays in two separate stints spanning a total of 11 years. He was a coach prior to that for the Blue Jays and Royals. He is highly qualified and by all metrics a good hire.

Hitting coach: Eric Chavez (returning to his 2022 role).  Chavez was clearly good for the 2022 Mets; let’s hope that shows itself in 2024.

Co-hitting coach: Jeremy Barnes. I am very surprised Barnes is still around after 2023. He is being called a co-hitting coach instead of assistant. This is essentially his 2022 role as well.

Pitching coach: Jeremy Hefner. No surprise here, everyone loves Hefner.

First base/outfield coach: Antoan Richardson

Third base/infield coach: Mike Sarbaugh

Information coach: Danny Barnes 

Catching coach: Glenn Sherlock. Good choice to keep around 

Bullpen coach: TBD 

 

In terms of players, not much has transpired. Yamamoto was posted on Monday, meaning he is officially a free agent. Reports indicate he will wait until after the winter meetings to sign. Some reports also show he may like to play with other Japanese players. Senga’s presence and positive experience definitely bodes well for the Mets.

 

There's not much else to report for this week. Hopefully, we get some more action soon.

 

Reese Kaplan: Before You Light Your Angry Torch, Take a Breath

Well, if you're here you're undoubtedly a Mets fan yet this week has come and gone without any significant player additions being made while we all see other clubs like the Philadelphia Phillies and Atlanta Braves progressing substantially on improving their rosters.  

Now it's not as if the Mets have been sitting still and doing nothing during this period of seeming inaction.  While Aaron Nola and other notable players have made contractual agreements, the Mets have also been busy with their lawyers but it was for the management team rather than the on-the-field guys with bats, balls and well worn cleats.  

By now it's already old news, but the Mets have purloined a top amateur scouting executive from the Houston Astros, a bench coach who was twice the manager of the Toronto Blue Jays, a first base coach from the deposed Gabe Kapler San Francisco Giants and a third base coach from Tito Francona's former staff in Cleveland.  

Think about these hires for a minute.  They are looking to improve their scouting and amateur player assessments so they get the best in the game to take over that role.  They have a rookie manager who might need some in-game guidance as he takes the reins.  They bring in a former Met player who had several years as the manager in Toronto to aid Carlos Mendoza in adjusting to his new role.  

They bring in 1st and 3rd base coaches from winning (or mostly positive) organizations to replace the now gone Joey Cora and Wayne Kirby.  They retained the pitching coach who has survived several managers.  They returned Eric Chavez to the role where he excelled as hitting coach (though why they retained Barnes is still a bit of a mystery).  

So while folks may very well be frustrated by what hasn't happened thus far with improving the roster, it would appear that rushing to be first to sign someone isn't a strategy for long term success.  How many trades and free agent acquisitions this club has made in the past didn't pan out as expected?  

Sure, Starling Marte looked like magic in his first year, then came the injuries that cut short the end of 2022 and most of 2023.  I can go on to reiterate the point, but picking the best is not guaranteed by picking them first.

As promised, there will be an examination of the available free agents come Saturday morning.  Expect the Mets to be active here but not in the pay realm necessary to land Max Scherzer, Justin Verlander, David Robertson and others.  

Yes, there will be serious play made for Yoshinobu Yamamoto and they won't be counting on Jose Butto, Joey Lucchesi and Tylor Megill to fight it out for the other two spots in the starting rotation.  Adam Ottavino may be gone but there are other capable arms available who could help the team improve.  

For now remember it's Black Friday, most folks are off from work for the long Thanksgiving holiday weekend and action likely won't resume until Monday, the 27th.