11/27/23

Reese Kaplan -- The Top Group of Bullpen Free Agents (1 of 2)


After somehow addressing the starting rotation so that 2024 is not a replay of 2023, the next huge issue for the Mets to consider is their embarrassingly bad bullpen.  Please don't take that evaluation as a criticism of missing-in-action Edwin Diaz nor recently rewarded year two pitcher Brooks Raley.  No, it's the everyone else who create question marks large enough to serve as runways for incoming pitchers from outside New York.

For this exercise the age restrictions are a bit less severe than they were for starting pitchers as the fact is bullpen arms tend to be more volatile than starters and it's much more difficult to predict long term placements.  Consequently, since you're likely looking at 1-2 year deals it is entirely reasonable to consider somewhat more senior pitchers who again need to have provided recently better than a 1.0 WAR rating which suggests a mean value of about $7 million.  


Free Agents to Support the Starters

Josh Hader deserves every penny he gets but it won't be from Steve Cohen who already has Edwin Diaz.

The number one arm on most team's lists after the not-considered Josh
Hader could possibly be Cuban bullpen star Yariel Rodriguez.  At just 26 years of age and having served as both a starter and reliever, you would think there would be a passel of interested parties who could envision this hombre as a large part of their bullpen roster for the upcoming years.  

Contradicting myself, given his age it's entirely possible he would perhaps be seeking a longer contract which would result is a more significant long term payroll commitment.  For teams that are in need of a closer or an 8th inning guy, knowing you could have someone provide high quality in that role for the next however many years would certainly be enticing.  

How good has he been?  Well, in his 2022 season pitching in Japan he delivered a 6-2 record with a 1.15 ERA over 56 appearances with a WHIP of a miniscule 0.915.  Agent guesses are a multiyear deal for between $40 and $65 million.

Jakob Junis is not exactly a household name and his stat sheet initially doesn't fill you with drooling anticipation until you peer at it a bit more closely.  For four consecutive years his ERA has come down markedly and his 2nd year in San Francisco isn't bad at all.  The ERA is still at 3.86 but look at the strikeout to walk ratio and you see he delivered over 10K per 9 IP while just issuing 2.4 walks.  

That's the sign of a quality arm.  He posted 2.0 of WAR in 2023 and while he's not likely going to get a mega-sized deal, he's showing the positive development to suggest he might be a bargain at under $4 million given his ending deal for $2.8 million.


Veteran failed starter Matt Moore has reinvented himself into a reputable relief pitcher who happens to throw from the left side.  During his bullpen career which has lasted just the past two seasons.  In 2022 for the Rangers he appeared in 63 games in relief finishing the season with a 6-2 record and a 1.95 ERA while delivering over 10 Ks per 9 IP.  His walks were alarming at 4.6 per 9 IP, but you can't argue with success.  

In 2023 combined for three teams Moore was nearly as good again, appearing in 50 games with a 5-1 record and a 2.56 ERA while his strikeouts went up a tick and his walks dropped almost by 50%.  Yes, he's a support arm worth considering.  He earned $7.55 million for his 2023 efforts after being mostly a walk-on flyer in 2022.  

He will be looking for similar money but for multiple years.  What works against him somewhat is his age as he'll be turning 35 for the 2024 season, but a two-year deal for perhaps $18 million total is $1 million less per season than what the Mets last year gave David Robertson who is older and right handed.

Chris Stratton is another veteran reliever who chose to do some of his best work on the national stage for the World Series bound Texas Rangers after a midyear deal from the Cardinals to Arlington.  His stint for the Rangers included 22 games with a 1-0 record and a respectable 3.41 ERA.  He finished the year earning $2.8 million and wouldn't break the bank for his next team as he approaches age 34.

Dylan Floro has had a bit of a scattershot career across six teams since his major league debut in 2016.  It's a bit surprising given his career ERA of just 3.42.  He's not a huge strikeout guy averaging under 1 per IP but he keeps walks in check and has appeared in as many as 68 games in a season as he did for the Marlins in 2021.  His ending salary of $4.2 million suggests he wouldn't break the bank and multiple pitchers of this caliber could quietly turn the Mets bullpen from a circus to a celebration.


Starter and reliever, Nick Martinez, may take on that old Seth Lugo role if he came to New York.  Turning 34 in 2024, he has had two straight commendable seasons in San Diego after a five year horrific duration in Texas.  In 2022 he was in 47 games (37 as a reliever, 10 as a starter) and provided a 3.47 ERA.  He followed that up this past season showing it was not a one-off accomplishment, appearing in 63 games (54 as a reliever and 9 as a starter) with a 3.43 ERA.  

That kind of quality is most appealing and after being out of the majors from 2018 through 2021 it should depress the size of his paycheck.  He was bought out for $1.5 million by the Padres so he is likely looking for a deal in the $6 million per year salary on a 2 year contract.  The versatility and performance are both intriguing.

We're far from done in the realm of bullpen free agents.  On Wednesday we will follow up with another dozen to consider who fall within our arbitrary parameters.

10 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

You discuss 6 interesting bullpen guys here. The Mets frankly could use all 6.

If I was a Texas Ranger, and just got my WS share, a sizable sum, and had no Texas state taxes to pay, I’d like stay and hope for a repeat.

Ya riel…I wonder why he did not pitch in 2023.

Pitching a few seasons in Japan seems to work wonders in revitaling careers.

Paul Articulates said...

I would take Rodriguez with his .915 WHIP or Stratton with his 1.10 WHIP. Pass on the other guys - if you let people on base, you get scored upon.

Also, in my opinion the Mets' pen in 2023 was not "embarassingly" bad but suffered from overuse and became much less effective than they were earlier in the season. That will happen again no matter who you put in there if the starters cannot get us 6+ innings on most days.

Mack Ade said...

I like Junis

This is a great tutorial on the best of what is out there

Good work my Asian friend

Amazin Z said...

I don’t like the sign RP that you can send back and forth to AAA strategy from last year. With SP’s throwing less innings you need a strong Pen. Give me 3 of 4 of Rodriguez, Robertson (we know he’ll come back here and only on a 1 year deal), Hicks, and Moore. And give Lavender a spot in the Pen. He’s earned it, a Lefty, inexpensive, and good. If Drew Smith is the worst RP in our Pen that’s a strong Pen.

Anonymous said...

Yes to Moore and Rodriquez.
I would also like to bring back Synndergarrd in a relief roll as well and Robertson

Anonymous said...

The above was from
Zozo

Mack Ade said...

One thing

I think Lavender will rise to be a good middle one inning guy

Amazin Z said...

If we sign Moore that also gives us three good Lefties along with Raley and Lavender.

Mack Ade said...

I'm once again upset that the Mets haven't come out of the box this free agent season

I know... wait and have patience

Well, when it comes to the Mets patience are people that go to hospitals

Woodrow said...

Last year we won the off-season but the season was a disaster, Those long term contracts seldom work even in te first few seasons and specially so with stars on the downside of their careers. May be better off signing second and even third tier FAs to two year deals.