Well,
the draft is over and the Mets have their 40 picks.
For
the record, the Mets drafted:
22 college seniors
Only 5 college juniors
2 JUCO players
11 high school seniors
Position
wise:
13 RHP
6
LHP
2 C
2
1B
2
2B
1
SS
2
3B
12 OF
My
random observations:
1. A good draft is finding
three future major league starters. Five is a miracle for great teams. Great
teams consist of great players, not players that only start because they are
the best in a bad organization.
2. No one will ever convince
me that the Mets had a good draft unless they sign their three top high school
players… 3B Brett Baty (#1), RHP Josh Wolf (#2) and RHP Matt
Allen (#3). You just don’t draft this way… which I love the bravado here…
unless you know what direction you are heading. (update: it's being reported that Bt is coming to NYC this weekend to take his Mets physical and sign a deal)
3. Also, no one will ever convince
me that the Mets didn’t talk to these three guys' representatives and put the
cards on the table. They had to show them that they were willing to come up
with the bonus number by bypassing more talented college juniors than their senior
teammates.
4. There must be a verbal commitment
here or this draft was an act of internal suicide. Most of the college talent
always lies in the junior class. They also are considered almost old in the
first place, but seniors tend to be ancient. And 5th year seniors are mummified.
5. There are talented second tier HS players that
the Mets need to also sign… CF Blaine McIntosh at
#13… RHP Joseph Charles at #25… but forget LHP Hunter Barco at #24. All the Mets can do with him is
ask him to hold up until the last moment to sign up at college, in case one of
the top three Mets picks say no to a deal and the Mets can up the ante to him
(a la Chris Flexen).
6. The Mets also seem to have thrown to the wind the ‘best
player’ method that most teams follow. Only one shortstop? Of course, the
pipeline is flooded with them. A weak pipeline outfield? Don’t worry, we got a
dozen here for you.
7. The other thing is a college
senior hitting pattern. It’s almost as if the powers to be here call all
the interns in the room and told them to hit their computers and come up with
every college senior, from any school, that led the team or league in batting
average, on-base percentage, homers, or stolen bases. They then flooded this
draft will some very capable bats, even if they are turning like 30 in a week from
Wednesday or played against teams like Our Lady of Perpetual Sadness HS or Robert Mueller College.
8. Overall rating – that’s
impossible to say yet.
Sign picks one through three… A+.
Lose one… B.
Lose 2… F.
Sign picks one through three… A+.
Lose one… B.
Lose 2… F.
One
last thing.
This
is the last year I will be breaking out the draft for Mack’s Mets. I have loved
doing something that always generated the highest ‘hit’ totals of any days on
the site. Thank you for reading my postings and adding your comments.
15 comments:
Again, a great, great job over the years on draft analyses, Mack.
Those are the things that caught my eye and drew me to the site as a reader, then a writer.
I sincerely hope the Mets will sign their first and second rounders below slot and free up enough bucks to sign Matt Allen in the 3rd round. That is the kind of Trifecta that the Mets so sorely need right now, to revitalize the farm system.
Draft picks are as much an art as a science. No one could have predicted success from some late round picks (Seth Lugo, for example) just as no one could have predicted failure for many number ones. All you can do is go in armed with data, scouting reports and, if possible, some face time with the kids to determine attitude.
TY Tom
Reese
So true
My understanding is they went with the seniors because needed affordable picks so they could funnel extra money to secure Allen from 3rd round.
I believe this draft works because it follows your central thesis -- great players, not the best of a bad team -- and Brodie and his completely rebuilt staff went for an elite core of maximum talent guys. I believe they got 3 of the top 17 prospects according to MLB's pre-draft rankings.
I like that strategy.
With the later rounds, as Reese says, who can say. It's more about coaching and the minor league system at that point, another area that Brodie was forced to rebuild after Alderson left it in a total mess.
Jimmy P
Jimmy
I hope this plan works
Mack, thank you for all the work to inform us of these players.
I do believe that they had an understanding of what it will take to sign all three, but I wouldn’t call it draft suicide if they don’t. Look at how teams don’t even sign their #1 sometimes... However, if they do pull off the hoped and sign all three, can we look to a fourth by signing one of the mid-20’s pitchers? Wonder how much they want and is it worth it to pay a small penalty for...
I like the aggressive approach for this years draft & if they can sign at least 2 of the top 3 picks - plus Barco this might be a special draft
Texas
Well, to me it is a disaster if all 3 top picks go to college.
That being said, Baty looks like he is in the bag.
(curious what he signs for)
they cant strike out on first 2 picks or else it really kills pool money. I mean even losing 3rd pool money would hurt. True there is no forecasting the end result for each pick but you cant sign anybody with missing pick money. As far as anderson leaving everything void of talent that is a lie,while not a factory they did have some quality guys that were either used in trades or are still on there way to the majors.The over all product should be better after all those years but brodie did not do it justice by trading 2 blue prospects for a over the hill second baseman and an " elite" closer , who was not needed probably till 2020 ...
Anon
I really loved that trade and the direction BVW began taking us but I have reversed coure on that trade.
I now want a complete rebuild and having Dunn and Kelenic would get done quicker.
All the fans who don't want to win now or in the foreseeable future love the misguided idea of tanking and stockpiling "prospects" in the delusion that it's some kind of guarantee of success.
It's pathetic.
Alderson didn't try to win for the first four years. He tried to build a farm system and failed. He essentially delivered a lost decade.
In addition, there's reality: the Wilpons own the Mets. They hired a GM and their message was, "We want to try to compete, and maybe win, within *this* budget." Whoever they hired had to attempt to achieve that. And it made sense, given the Mets have one more year of Wheeler, a limited time with Noah.
Everybody wanted to extend Jake. Why?
What's so great about losing year after year? I mean, it's easy, and winning is hard, but beyond that? Why do so many of today's fans want to tank?
The Mets are a .500 team and they haven't gotten the performances out of the starting pitching that they absolute must have in order to compete for the WC, maybe the NL East. Lowrie, zero. Cespedes, zero. Wilson and Familia, nearly zero. Cano, a rocky start. Sometimes things go wrong. So now all these fans just want to give up and lose a lot more games. Well, that would be stress free!
I find it pretty disgusting, honestly.
How about this? We try to win. Crazy, I know.
It's not easy. There are no promises. But that's life.
Jimmy P
My bitch on the Cano trade is exactly the same as it was in November: The smart play was to eat all the money, keep Bruce and Swarzak and since Cano had a no trade clause you could have gotten Diaz and Cano for nothing. If your cheap owner bit he’s at that, when DiPoto tells you to guard two prospects, you guard Alonso and Kelenic. You don’t guard a small speedy shortstop as they aren’t too hard to find, but even so, your system is full of shortstops. Just one brain fart after another in that deal. And, DiPoto played BVW.
Mack, I said one not sign, not all three, LoL. Yes, that’s a disaster.
Texas Gus I agree on your take on the Cano deal.
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