Reese Kaplan -- Rightsizing the Roster: Moving Bad Contracts

A few places have been reporting this week that the Mets are shopping a couple of their bad contracts in Jed Lowrie and Jeurys Familia.  They could throw Yoenis Cespedes into that mix as well as Robinson Cano.  There are problems moving each of them, of course.  Lowrie needs to show he’s healthy.  Familia needs to show last year was an aberration.  Cespedes has to show he’s alive and not in need of a scooter like they have on hand at Walmart for disabled customers.  Cano is probably the least likely to go consider his comeback performance in the last 1/3 of the season. 

In terms of dollars, there’s a lot being squandered here.  Lowrie is $11.5 million.  Familia is on the hook for two more years at a total of $29.4 million.  Cespedes will cost $29.5 million.  Cano is worth $96 million (or $76 if you factor in the $20 million that came over from Seattle in the deal). 

One strategy parlayed was to make a team take both Lowrie and Familia by sweetening the deal with a Dom Smith or J.D. Davis, neither of whom have a clear role on this team and whose low cost would make swallowing the bitter pills of the less-than-dynamic duo a bit more palatable.  Yes, that is one way to go.   In this case you’re looking primarily for salary relief, so the returns would likely be minor league prospects, thus opening up a little more payroll flexibility.  The theory here is replenishing the weak farm system and gaining some money to spend on mid-tier free agent options or trade candidates with payroll obligations (all yet to be identified).

Another would be a swap of bad contracts, fulfilling needs on this team through that route with the money more-or-less balancing out.  In this case you might look to a team in need of a reliever and infielder who might have a similar bad contract for a centerfielder, reliever, backup catcher and/or 5^th starter. 

An example of the latter would be to approach the Colorado Rockies about Ian Desmond who has played centerfield for them.  They’re on the hook for a minimum of $25 million for 2020, 2021 and a 2022 buyout.  They have reliever Wade Davis slated to earn $17 million with a $1 million buyout if he does not finish 30 games.  He had a horrific season but was among the very best with three straight All Star appearances prior to landing in the pitching hell of Colorado.  The same can be said of Bryan Shaw who was a 3.13 setup guy thriving in Cleveland who does not appreciate the thin air in Denver.  He is owed $18 million over the next two years (his option all but certain to kick in for the 2021 season).  Then there’s lefty Jake McGhee.  Prior to the last two years he was money in the bank with a 3.15 career ERA and a 1.110 WHIP.  Two of those eight years were in Colorado (though one was pretty bad).  Then the last two seasons he’s been even worse.  However, at a $9.5 million salary for 2020 and an option only kicking in if he exceeds 74 appearances, he would carry the least financial obligation.  The $2 million buyout would exist if he falters in New York or he would cost $9 million for 2022.   With Daniel Murphy’s health and in his final year (if they choose to renew his option), a low cost future player there like Dom Smith or J.D. Davis would probably be most interesting to them. 

So let’s play with the numbers.  Suppose they took both Familia and Lowrie.  That’s $40.9 million of salary obligation right there.  The Mets took back Ian Desmond $25 million) and Wade Davis to be a setup guy for Edwin Diaz.  That ensures he does not fulfill the automatic option kicking in.  That’s another $18 million or a total of $43.  That’s almost a wash.  You don’t like Davis?  How about Shaw?  The numbers would be exactly the same.  If you took McGhee, then the Mets come out ahead salary-wise and you might have to even it up with a prospect (hopefully not named Smith or Davis). 

The same exercise could go on with the Milwaukee Brewers who have Lorenzo Cain on the books for another $51 million for the next three years.  He would solve the CF problem for sure, but it would likely take more than the $40.9 million of Lowrie and Familia to pry him loose.  There’s been a lot of banter about Hader and he would surely provide some insurance against another Diaz meltdown.  However, adding Hader to the mix would mean the Mets would have to pony up a lot more such as J.D. Davis or Dom Smith and perhaps a pitcher like David Peterson.  With Thomas Szapucki on the mend, I could live with that.  Franklyn Kilome would be another palatable option to me but coming off TJS they may not want him until he’s proven to be fully healthy.  The Brewers would save over $10 million in salary obligation, get Lowrie to play 3B, newly acquired 22-year old Luis Urias (.308 career hitter in minors) to play his natural position of SS in place of weak hitting Orlando Arcia, Familia in the pen and a good hitting 1^st baseman where currently they have no one penciled in at all.  In addition, they would get a wildcard pitcher. The Mets would get a premium centerfielder for the next three years, and a social media headcase All Star in the pen.  Who would blink?

Do these approaches make sense? This suggestion is not to limit it to just with these two teams as possibilities, but you see the idea of swapping of financial obligations for pieces that are better fits.