Good Morning, Mets' fans and Merry Christmas Eve!
Interesting title to this article, no?
On the off chance that you think this is some sort of political statement, or even a self defense "thought exercise" you can relax. After all, this is a baseball blog and we don't have time for anything like that, right?
No, this article is my attempt to ask all of you if you would be interested in Colorado Rockies mega-star Nolan Arenado? OK, so maybe that would qualify as one of the dumber questions I have come up with, because the universal answer should be YES 100 times out of 100.
I am skeptical that he is even available, but his name has been making it's way through the rumor mill and the Mets have been loosely linked to him since we have a void at third base and we are about to be owned by "Daddy Warbucks" so we can afford his contract. Yes, I know that Jeff McNeil is on our roster and is penciled in as our third baseman in 2020, but if you have a chance at getting Nolan Arenado, you find a different spot for Jeff.
Or do you?
First, let's take a closer look at Nolan's career, so far.
He was drafted by the Rockies in the second round of the 2009 MLB Draft (nice pick, by the way) and he has spent his entire career with that organization. He made his major league debut in early 2013 and he not left the Rockies dugout since.
Over his seven year major league career, he has averaged 147 games played and 622 plate appearances, so he has been extremely reliable and/or durable (Yoenis Cespedes could learn a thing or two from him). His collective/average statistical line is as follows;
.295/.351/.546 (.897 OPS)
32 HR/105 RBI/2 SB and 89 RS
38.7 WAR (5.33 AVG) and a positive 14.4 dWAR (+2.1 AVG)
Are you freakin' kidding me?
Oh and for good measure, he has also made five All Star appearances, won 6 Gold Gloves and 4 Silver Slugger awards!
OK, so why exactly are the Rockies willing to trade a franchise icon? In Mets' terms, he is their David Wright, or at least the version that existed prior to his medical issues. Unfortunately, players like that tend to get VERY expensive and Nolan is no exception.
He signed a massive contract before the 2019 season and a majority of the agreement is still to be paid out, if you will. In short, he has 7 more years and another 234 million dollars owed to him, not counting possible performance bonuses and a player opt out after the 2021 season. Doing some simple math shows that he is owed an average of 33.43 million dollars annually through the 2026 season when he will be 35 years old.
The Wilpons would act like a demon showered with Holy Water if they had to assume a deal like that. Steve Cohen? Maybe not, so it isn't THAT outlandish to think about.
In addition to the contract, you wonder what the Rockies would want in return and if that request would change depending on the amount of cash the Mets would be willing to absorb. At the very least, you are looking at dealing several of our best prospects and a player like JD Davis, or even Jeff McNeil (gasp). Or, maybe you get creative and offload one of our expensive players in the deal to moderate the salary?
Then, there is the Coors Field effect to consider. Some consider this a myth, but take a quick look at Nolan's home and away splits/averages and make up your own mind.
HOME
.324/.380/.615 (.995 OPS)
37 HR/127 RBI/1 SB and 107 RS
AWAY
.265/.323/.476 (.799 OPS)
28 HR/83 RBI/1 SB and 73 RS
The "home version" of Nolan is worth the money, but the road version might not be. Is he still a very good player and a defensive wizard? Yes, but his overall stat line would not be the same playing half his games in Citi-Field and only a handful of games in Coors Field. But, you know that Brodie is dying to make a high profile deal like this one and it would certainly supercharge the fan base.
With all of that said, do you think Nolan would be worth the cost of admission?
13 comments:
I would love him on our team but I would rather sign a free agent for that type of money (mookie Betts next year, and a slew of shortstops the year after). While only losing draft picks.
Plus he has a no trade clause and in 2 years he could buy out of said agreement and we give up a whole big package for nothing.
I don't think it makes sense to take on big contracts for players on tge back end of their career. And also give up prospects too? I hope the Mets learned their lesson with the Cano contract, but you never know with the Mets.
I agree with Zozo - go for Mookie next year and extend Conforto and Thor now.
A little unnerving is that Arenado, in a little over 90 plate appearances at Citifield, has a paltry .229/.275/.410 split.
In Philly and Miami? He has hit in the .190s spanning nearly 200 PAs. In Atlnata? .255. In Washington? Over .300, but only 8 RBIs in about 75 PAs.
These are the teams he'd constantly compete against in the Mets' division.
At first, I thought yes - now, I think no.
Don't do it.
I analyzed Arenado a bit more - in all games played on the road against all NL East opponents, here are his stats:
436 PA, just 43 R, .235, 17 doubles, 17 HRs, 45 RBIs, 26 BBs, 78 Ks.
Look like 2019 Robby Cano #s to me.
No thanks
I liké him but his new contract takes away any fit on this team
I agree with all of you......leave Jeff at third base, keep the prospects and save the $$$ for other needs and future FA's.
See? This GM thing isn't so hard, right?
I know it's fun and fashionable to rip the "cheap" Wilpons, but I have one question about that:
Who owned the team when the very (now) burdensome contracts were given to Wright and Yo, and the less burdensome one one to Jake? And who took on the contract of Cano?
ALL of the above except David's were done AFTER the Madoff disaster.
The Wilpons certainly aren't perfect, or Steinbrenner spenders, but the "cheap" moniker just doesn't fit.
I agree Bill. Not having a solid plan or not being very smart may not be as catchy but it fits better.
Not my narrative, per se......but the aversion to the Luxury Tax and not consistently having a top ten
payroll lends credence to the thought that the Wilpons are more conservative then we would like.
It is also magnified with the Yankees across town and their free spending ways.
I wrote an article a few weeks ago about the Mets' payrolls during the last ten years. They were
12.4 (average).....not awful, but for a team with deep pockets, it could be better. Especially when you
are not far away from contending.
The Betances move is a nice step in the right direction.
Wise spending.....not just spending is the goal, I think.
12.4 what?
12.4 is the average position for their team payroll (out of 30) for the decade.
I guess that means near the bottom of the top half.
But even so, this was the decade of Madoff. I wonder how the payroll ranked in the NON-Madoff years.
If a person earned $100K per year, but in 5 of the last 10 years he was unemployed, he sure didn't average anything close to the $100K for the decade.
Overall, I think the cheap Wilpon angle gets overplayed a bit.......the bigger issue is how the money has been spent.
Some of it was poor decision making and other contracts were just crappy luck (DW, for example).
I am hopeful that the future includes an increase in finances, but also a GM that knows how to spend wisely....could
be BVW, but the jury is out, IMO.
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