12/6/19

Mack – My Plan


Good morning.

I’ve done a lot of commenting on what direction I think the Mets should go this off season; however, I haven’t written a proper post on this subject. So, here it is.

First, I don’t think the Mets are that far away. They had the best record in the National League for non-playoff teams, had a successful and injury free rotation that included the Cy Young winner, had two newbies almost win the batting title while the other was the ROY, and developed a power lineup any team would be proud of. Add to this the additions of Justin Wilson and J.D. Davis, and there is a lot to be proud of here.

Not everything worked well, but I’m not doing that spilled milk thing in this post. I’m moving on to the future.

Some thoughts.

    1.    No one on this earth wishes that ownership would spend $20mil more this off season, but it’s not going to happen until the new guy takes over.
     Write all the posts and comments you want. The fact will remain that all our General Manager will have is around $20mil more to work with here.

    2.    I’m not trading anyone. I’m not breaking up my young core, which, by the way includes Dom Smith. He doubles as a backup outfielder and can play ++ first base on days you want to rest the polar bear. I can’t even imagine if we traded this guy and Pete went down with a season ending injury.

    3.    Regarding our bad contracts, no one is going to help us get out of these. $40mil of this goes away at the end of 2020 (Cespedes, Lowrie) which will help us this time next year. The Cano contract is not the elephant in the room. It’s a herd of elephants. My hope is our new owner will have the balls to take a one year hit here and release all these guys. We are just going to have wait to see if he operates that way.

    4.    I would do everything I could do to work out a contract past the 2020 season with Marcus Stroman and Justin Wilson. We need to keep these two guys around.

    5.    Regarding the rotation, you all know my thoughts on making Seth Lugo the SP5 for 2020. That’s what he wants to do this year and you don’t want to piss off a successful pitcher in your clubhouse. You also don’t have to spend any of the precious little you have to use this off-season. Did I just say that $20,000,000 is a ‘precious little’ amount? Crazy.

    6.    I would front load the Syracuse roster with four starters… David Peterson, Stephen Gonsalves, Harol Gonzalez, and Franklyn Kilome. We had an injury-free rotation in 2019. The chance of this repeating in 2020 is slim to none. Thomas Szapucki and Jordan Humphreys are just around the corner, while Tylor Megill and Kevin Smith wait in the wings. We are fine here.

    7.    I would raise my red chips a notch. Pitching wise, Matt Allen and Josh Wolf would pitch Columbia while Stephen Villines would come out of the Cuse pen. Catcher wise, Ali Sanchez will start in Syracuse while Francisco Alvarez joins Allen and Wolf in Columbia. Patrick Mazeika would be the Syracuse first baseman. Andres Gimenez would be the Syracuse shortstop while Ronny Mauricio would open up with St. Lucie. At third, Mark Vientos would play St. Lucie and Brett Baty would become a Firefly. Jake Mangum would open in the Columbia outfield.
   
    8.    I would concentrate any efforts to be improved this season through the free agent market, NOT trading. Trading in 2019 cost us four top prospects for very little return.

    9.    My target positions would be a defensive minded centerfielder who hits, at least, in the .275 range and relief pitchers. The centerfielder could be hard to find, but there are plenty of free agent relievers.  I’m not going to panic if I can’t find a legitimate centerfielder this season. Nimmo, Conforto, Davis, McNeil, and Smith give me many options here. Not the best defensive outfield, but we may have to table this position until the $40mil comes off the books at the end of the 2020 season.

    10.        I’m not going to be held hostage by the bad contracts. Cano will start if he produces. If not, I will return McNeil to second. Same for Lowrie. McNeil or Davis can start here, if both of the oldies don’t ‘show up’. I have a real outfield decision, which is something I would have to deal with, either by signing a new person to join Nimmo and Cano in the outfield or anther real third or second baseman. As for Cespedes, I expect nothing.


    11. Based on the fact that we have a new controlling owner down the road, I would not enter into any long range contract with marginal players. In three years (or maybe even less), we are going to be able to go after the big dogs ever year at this time of the year. Steve Cohen has always been a big spender and I expect him to continue to strengthen that reputation with the Mets.



14 comments:

Unknown said...

I especially like the idea of NOT trading any of the young, potentially very dynamic, young position players. If the bullpen wasn't a disaster last year they would have made the playoffs.

Mike Freire said...

I also agree with keeping as many prospects as possible.....there isn't a difference maker available that we can trade for (think Mookie Betts, for example) that wouldn't cost most of our kids.

If you backloaded a large contract, it would coincide with the money dropping off the payroll next year. I am still beating the drum (hopelessly) for Rendon in that type of scenario.

It seems like they addressed the CF issue for 2020, so it is on to the back of the rotation and the bullpen!

Mack Ade said...

I wrote this before our purchase of the wrong Houston CFer. Sorry.

Still, we now have an addition of a ++ defensive CFer... At a decent one year deal.

On to Mookie Betts this time next season.

Mack Ade said...

Or George Springer

Reese Kaplan said...

I wouldn't betts the farm on a second Mookie coming to the Mets, and I think they have a better shot at George Jetson than George Springer. However, I hope to be proven wrong by the new owner-in-waiting.

Tom Brennan said...

You gotta keep the legit high ceiling kids - because Cohen may be rich, but who wants to pay $50 million a year more in salary than necessary for a vet-heavy team that wins the same # of games. Three kids (JDD, Jeff McN, and Pete) are doing quite nicely - and cheaply. Fans hate you if you trade studs and flounder.

Having enough "cheap" help allows you to chase high bucks guys in seasons to come.

Tom Brennan said...

Same as I responded to Reese today, we can speculate that Jed or Yo gotta go, but the Mets have to observe up close and make that call. What if both are close to 100% healthy? We never thought Wheeler would get healthy either. We were wrong, or at least I was. Now he is a wealthy man.

bill metsiac said...

Mack, do you want to rewrite #1 above? I'd say EVERY Mets fans wishes the Wilpons would spend $20 mil more this year.

Looking ahead, unless Amed has a secere regression or injury, he should be our SS for a long time. I'd say this is the time to play Gimenez in CF upstate until/unless he shows he can't.

If he shows the bat we've anticipated and can handle CF, no need to spend/trade for someone else in '21.

Also, given Cano's reduced range but still good hands/arm, I' d explore putting him at 3B, with McNeil as our regular 2Bman.

Mack Ade said...

Guys -

I've done some checking around...

Cohen is a big spender in everything he does... homes... art work... cars... he always paid more than book value when he wanted something.

Cohen is a walking hedge fund... somewhere between Bernie Madoff and Gordon Gecko. He does all this with investor money.

He is absolutely the most fanatical Mets fan there is.

And... not only will he bring in his own board members but he also will get his own flunky to be the GM and do what he wants the team to do, a la George Steinbrenner

MacLean said...

1. Agree with all this.
2. I would not be surprised if BVW stays on with Cohen, short and long-term. I can see them getting along and seeing eye to eye.

Unknown said...

Mack, everything you said was right on, especially with signing some of free agents and keeping our prospects.

Hobie said...

Agree with your Plan, Mac, including (maybe especially) hanging on to D.Smith.

Adding Don Hahn (a.k.a Jake Marisnck) does muck up PT for Dom & JD a bit. I guess JD & Lowrie become the IF UT's with JD the RH 3B & Lowrie PT SS/2B. For me it means #26 is C#3.

I expect a rebound from Diaz but still need to add to the pen. Tough call on Lugo, but (I'm dreaming) one of Bumgarner/Betances determines Lugo's slot.

Pawn Yo to DH-land for a midlevel (#15-#25) prospect would be ideal interms of D.Smith/JD AB's. Dreaming again.

Eddie from Corona said...

Cohen first move should be taken from the Yankees
Find a way to get cashman to run the Mets
No one better handle big Apple and consistent sustained winning

Tom Brennan said...

Lots of good - and real - dreaming now - the Cohen Era awakens real hope, baby.

Nice article Mack!