Reese Kaplan -- The Mets Off-Season Just Got More Ponderous

When the Mets recently traded for two-time All Star Javy Baez in what some might read as a two-month rental, they were forced to give up a former number one draft pick in Pete Crow-Armstrong who quickly went to the medical sidelines in 2021 due to a shoulder injury requiring surgery.  Some felt it was a fair price and others felt the Mets capitulated to fan and media pressure simply to do SOMETHING to indicate they were serious about winning the pennant this year.

While the assumption by a great many people is that he’s a short term help at shortstop while Francisco Lindor recovers, the fact is that he might be an interesting player to consider for a long term contract at the expense of another Scott Boras client, Michael Conforto.  Hear me out.  

Right now you have a left handed hitting guy whose career numbers include a .254 AVG, 124 home runs, 365 RBIs, 17 SBs and a single All Star Game appearance in Conforto.  He’s 28 years old.  He’s looking much better this year playing right field than he has in the past but has not yet been honored with league recognition in the form of a Gold Glove.  He earns $12.25 million.  He’s played over 100 games each at all three outfield positions.

Then you have a right handed hitting guy who is also age 28 hitting .262 for his career with 141 HRs, 445 RBIs and 72 SBs.  To accompany his performance he has a number two in MVP voting for one of his seasons, two All Star Game appearances and a 2020 Gold Glove as well.  For his efforts he earns $11.6 million.  In his career he’s played over 100 games at each of shortstop, second base and third base, as well as a handful of games at every other position except pitcher, catcher and center field.  

Both of these men are due to become free agents after this season concludes.  Generally you try to play your best every season, but none is more important than the one immediately preceding your opportunity to sell yourself to the highest bidder.  Towards that end Baez is doing what needs to be done, hitting near his career mark while marching towards more than 30 HRs and 100 RBIs.  

Conforto is having a nightmarish season at the plate.  He’s currently hitting at a sub-Mendoza level with just 6 HRs and 24 RBIs.  It’s not as if he’s missed a huge chunk of the season due to injury.  No one knows if it’s a prolonged slump, pitchers figuring him out, an undisclosed injury or simply cratering to the pressure to put up your best when your future payday depends on your output.  Bear in mind he’s earning $600K more than Baez for this level of production.  

So if you are Zack Scott and the others in the front office with a better yet still limited budget to spend on payroll, is it better to make a play for Michael Conforto or for Javier Baez?  Bear in mind you can try to hook Conforto with a Qualifying Offer, but remember the Neil Walker disaster the last time the Mets tried that negotiating gambit.  Boras would certainly have a tough sell on his hands to try to land Conforto a long term deal based upon 2021 output and it may be that he settles somewhere in that old Curtis Granderson range of $16 million per season for four years rather than a George Springer type of deal.  

On the other side of the wallet is the fact that Baez is having a very solid season and that delivery under pressure is going to amount to a much higher paycheck for a longer term contract.  Baez has been vocal about wanting to play alongside his buddy Francisco Lindor, but after the Mets forked out $341 million for ten years of Lindor, they might be facing a nearly duplicate deal to land Baez.  That’s a lot of cabbage but would give the team a double play duo that would rival any pair in the history of the game.

So which way would the team go?  In the one extreme, they could forego the QO to Conforto and simply let him walk away.  They get absolutely nothing in return but do have a few options to consider in-house to replace him in the outfield.  Jeff McNeil has done a significant amount of time out there adequately and J.D. Davis has played as well in butcher-like fashion just as he has done at 3rd base.  Also remember that as of today $20+ million PED star Robinson Cano is still a Met and due back for not one but two more seasons.  Since it’s never been in the Mets’ team DNA to let a high priced player sit in favor of a less expensive one, you would think that Cano might be asked to take up a new career at 3B.  That would facilitate moving McNeil to the outfield and leaves J.D. Davis once again as a man without a home.

Throw in a few of the 2021 performers as long shot extras in this equation as well.  Brandon Drury has been on fire this time upon his return from the minors.  Jonathan Villar has had some excellent offensive contributions and surprising defensive play though his baserunning has been at best head scratching.  Kevin Pillar has definitely had some moments as well, though in the case of all three of these players the Mets are not necessarily obligated nor entitled to keep them. 

Drury signed as a free agent and is auditioning well for a future job somewhere.  Villar is on a one year deal at modest money and will have no problem finding a contract again.  Pillar is the only one with a second year consideration in his contract, but both the player and team have clauses to opt out.  We haven’t even talked about recently IL’d Luis Guillorme who for the past two seasons combined to hit .306 and as always playing stellar defense.  

For potential All Star outfielders, the Mets are indeed somewhat thin.  Dom Smith is having a lackluster year after two promising ones in 2019 and 2020.  Brandon Nimmo is hitting better than he has in the past, but the nearly .300 average is accompanied by significantly reduced power and RBI production.  If Conforto leaves, then you have to replace him with someone, be it one of the aforementioned in-house options or looking to import a fresh face via trade or free agency.  

Now some folks will advocate that Steve Cohen dig deep into his pockets to retain both Conforto and Baez.  Considering they stand to lose both Marcus Stroman and Noah Syndergaard to free agency as well, it’s unlikely putting all of your money into three offensive players is prudent when it will be needed to address the holes in the starting rotation.  They will get some relief if they allow $11.7 million dollar man Jeurys Familia walk away, but the rest of the bullpen has not necessarily proved itself capable of picking up the slack.  

As interesting as the trading deadline period has been, it’s nothing compared to a full off-season to reshape and reinforce what should be a better core of players than they have shown due to a combination of both injury and slumping.  Cohen said he’s not averse to crossing the salary limit but he doesn’t appear to be Steinbrenneresque in his desire to buy a pennant.