Good Morning
Well, it seems that Luis Robert Jr. is
finally a Met. The 28-year old was traded by the Chicago White Sox to the Mets
for infielder Luisangel
Acuna and minor league starter, Truman Pauley.
It sure would be nice if
the Mets just acquired the 2023 version of Robert (4.9-WAR, 38-HR) rather than
the one that has produced, frankly, dismal numbers since then. How much of this
was dragged down from playing for a team that simply couldn’t win. A good sign
may be the .298/.352/.456
he produced in the last 126 plate appearances last season.
What the Mets do get is a
former Gold Glove winner who is considered one of the premier defensive
centerfielders in the game.
Oh. Did I mention his
history of being dinged up?
Cost? $20mil this
season, with a team option for 2027 ($2mil buyout)
When healthy and
motivated, Robert is a potential two-way star. He had a +11 FRV in 2023 and
last year in 865.2 innings, he had a +7 FRV.
Me?
The loss was minimal and
neither Acuna or Pauley would be considered a big loss. In addition, trading
Acuna relieves the Mets of one of the secondary infielders currently on the 40.
Past that, Mr. Robert is
going to have to prove to me this deal was worth it.
There are reports
floating in that the Mets are in the mix for the services of righthanded
starter, Freddy
Peralta.
Great stat line for the
Brewers last season: 5.5-WAR, 17-6, 2.70. Downside is he turns 30 in June and
is demanding a lengthy contract, far more than David Stearns would
want to offer.
Me?
He is under contract for
the 2026 season, so that means one must label him as a “rental” and nothing
more.
Cliff Floyd floated out there a
trade idea that would have the Mets sending three players to the Brewers, two
of which would be Brett Baty and Jonah Tong. Come on now…
you trade your current top trade bait (Baty), plus your top pitching prospect
not slated for Queens on opening day, for a one-year rental of Peralta? And
then what. Freddy moves on in 2027 and Tong is pitching in the all-star game
for Milwaukee?
Late yesterday, the San Diego Padres threw their hat
into the Peralta ring, stating publicly that they were looking for “a couple of
team-controlled starter prospects”. Hey, the Mets got plenty of them. Would an
offer of Brandon
Sproat and either Zach Thornton and Jack Wenninger get
this done?
Speaking of Jonah Tong…
None of you want to remember Tong’s major league debut
last season. Oh, there was one beautifully tossed start, but overall, the whole
remains nothing to write home about.
But let’s focus on what he DID accomplish last season
at the minor league level:
He played in the Futures Game
Was the EAS Pitcher of the Week twice
Was the EAS Pitcher of the Month twice
Was the EAS Pitcher of the Year
Was an EAS Post-Season All-Star
Was a Baseball America Minor League All-Star
Was a Baseball America Double-A All-Star
Was named to the MiLB Awards All-MiLB Prospect First
Team
Was the MiLB Awards Pitching Prospect of the Year
Was the Baseball America Minor League Pitcher of the
Year.
Produced a 2025 MiLB season stat line of:
10-5, 22 GS, 22 G, 1.43 ERA, 113.2 IP, .148 BAA, 179 SO
This is a trophy chase that guys like Doc Gooden and
Sandy
Koufax would be proud to have at similar points in their
career.
Forget 2025 Queens… this was Baseball’s top minor
league pitcher last season and the Mets need to remember this before
considering trading him away for anyone without the last names of Skubal or Skenes.
Another of the incoming DSL brats was signed on Monday.
Panama’s own, catcher Yadier Fuentes exchanged his John Hancock for a
check for $80,000 (handed to his agent to take his cut first).
Yes, another catcher, but there are two DSL Mets teams
and each of them needs two catchers, so there…
Reports are that he possesses a strong arm, controls a
game well, also has what they call “a bat with projection” with power on the
way.
Yeah, that’s what they all say…
Is Dylan Ross undervalued because he's a reliever?
How high is Dylan Ross’
ceiling? Feels like his future as a reliever has him being a bit undervalued on
prospect lists, but the stuff looks like it could potentially dominate major
league hitters given the chance - @aschorling34
Ross was called up by the
Mets during the last weekend of the 2025 season, but did not get into any of
the final three games against Miami.
The Mets selected Ross in
the 13th round of the 2022 MLB Draft out of the University of Georgia. He
underwent a Tommy John revision and did not make his professional debut until
Sept. 7, 2024, the next-to-last game of Low-A St. Lucie’s season.
In 2025, Ross pitched at
three minor league levels, spending most of his time with Triple-A Syracuse. In
a combined 54
innings, he posted a 2.17 ERA, allowing only 29 hits and striking out 80 batters.
His bugaboo was the 33 walks he issued.
While he will likely never
have plus command, there is thought in the organization that with more reps (he
has thrown just a combined 66.2 innings since 2022), the command should
improve.
Ross is a pure power
reliever, with a fastball that will sit at 97 mph and touch 101.
That isn’t his best pitch, though, as scouts will give the nod to his low-90s splitter that
minor league hitters could not touch, with a 48.3 percent whiff rate. He
supplements it with an upper-80s slider that he didn’t throw as much, but had
an even higher whiff rate of 67.7 percent.
If Ross can put some more
command together, I look at him as someone with high-leverage, setup type
potential. He should be squarely in the competition for one of the spots in the
Mets bullpen on Opening Day.
35 comments:
BB Ref has Robert at .240/.302/.425, with a HR every 24 times up for 2026. Elite defense. He stole 33 of 41 in 110 games last year. Mets likely are hoping that Roberts leaving last place hell will give him better #s than that. He hit just .190 in the first half last year, but about .300/.350/.460 in 31 second half games before he got hurt. No doubt Stearns hopes that he has a chance to return to being a very good overall player. They are paying all the money Roberts is still due.$20 million this year, club option for $20 million in 2027. They could have kept Tiny Acuna for 95% less $, but they think Robert is that much better. Pauley was a decent pitching prospect that is years away from the majors. He is 4 for 18, with a HR and 3 steals, at Citi Field. He should be much better than Tyrone Taylor. He is also just 28. Nimmo is 4 years, 4 months older.
I like the deal, even if not thrilled with it, due to his puzzling bat.
In his career, he has averaged 4 WAR per 162 games. Nimmo averaged 2.5 WAR the past two seasons.
A more powerful version of Juan Lagares.
Good Lagares comp
I look at this back-assed
Lost little
Not my money
I'm going to repost my comment from Reece's article...because I'm lazy.
.
Well, Gus finally got his wish.
Tom, if the best thing you can say about the trade is we gained 8 inches, then...yikes.
I know I have been a steady Robert basher, but they didn't give up too much so I'll say...meh. We needed an outfielder, he's an elite defender, so we can only hope for the best. They better get his arse down to the lab pronto.
As I've said often, I am a Met fan first, so I will root for him to turn his career around. Wouldn't it be great if a player on our team actually outperforms expectations.
I agree Mack, as long as Cohen doesn't mind spending money than it's worth a shot. They didn't give up anything that important.
Best case scenario, (oh I forgot he's a Met now) he plays closer to the 2023 version than the 2024 version. Maybe they can get him down to the lab and it helps.
At this point I would be satisfied with a .255/22/75 slash line.
Worst case scenario we have a very expensive 4/5 outfielder.
Now just go get some schlub to play LF until Benge is ready. Or send Baty down to Florida now to get some reps in LF.
Taylor to Left
Joe, you got him for free. Enjoy.
Mack, the thing about Tong is that he only has two pitches and the pitching angle doesn’t relate to horizontal break, but it is elite vertical break. I recall Angry Mike piece in Tong, but even Mike said he has two very elite pitches. Keep him to make him a closer?
Please now trade for St Louis Cardinal Jojo Romero and Red Sox SP Brayan Bello.
The Red Sox can use Brett Baty and we are able to get rid of him for Bello or even a Duran to man Leftfield?
Romeros lefty arm would be a very nice addition to our bullpen
Let's first see what he has been working on in the off-season
I'm starting to get 40 man dizzy
The most surprising thing this morning is seeing the expected lineup and seeing Robert at the bottom. Huh? And Semien batting fifth? Huh? I can understand Baty over Vientos at DH but Semien needs to be ninth and Robert needs to be fifth or sixth.
And, how can Stearns go after Bellinger if he said that Benge could claim a spot out of camp? Now, he need a Jeff McNeil type that can play everywhere and bats lefty but can be cup later.
Don't you hate autocorrect?
I hate when I'm cupped
I know I shoudn't say this but he can't be worst than Siri can he?
Hey Gus, the only saving grace in the trade is they didn't have up anything important for him. Being that its only money at this point I am willing to give it my blessing...lol.
He's a Met now so I will root hard for him to succeed.
Speaking of that utility role I think unless he is traded, Baty is pegged for that role. Get him to Florida and start working on left field. He will see time as DH/1B/2B/LF.
I think we need to keep him as insurance in case Bichette opts out after this year
Joe, the kind of piece that you get for pittance and may help you. Now Acuna is only 23, but his ceiling is Robert’s floor, as someone else offered this morning.
As for Baty, I can flip him or keep him. He doesn’t seem to be good enough at third base for me, but I know I’m in the minority so I’ll just ride along with the rest of y’all.
Lots of interesting comments here. Roberts trade makes sense. Losing Acuna is less painful that it would have been had Bichette not been signed. BB is not a good fielder but he is certainly good enough as SS to spell Lindor. If Lindor is injured for a short period, we have a couple of former ML infielders we signed in offseason for precisely this purpose.
As I have said about a month ago or more, when everyone was complaining about FO not doing anything, I am sure that Stearns has a plan for action, but little of what he does would be predictable. This was just after the signing of Polanco which no one saw coming at all. And like a good GM, Stearns agreed to pay the full Robert Jr salary which meant he had to give up less.
Now having said twice now, that whatever Stearns does next, no one should think they have any idea what it might be, I have decided to try my hand at prediction anyway: Hays as LF for something between 5-8m; he is in some demand which will drive up price. But pitching is the big issue: He will try to put together a deal for Peralta that may fail. If it fails, he will sign either Bassitt or Golito. Then he will wait to check in on Skubal during the arbitration process. Tigers won't make a move now. They have to get a feel for how the arbitration process is going. We don't want to wait until it is over. We will prepare an offer once we can read the tea leaves during the arbitration process. If it looks like it is going in Subal's favor, Tigers (however crazy they have been to this point) will revisit their attitude and realize not only will they lose Skubal next year they will have the burden of paying him 33million in his walk year. To save that all they have to do is trade him and get a hefty return. Mets will make their offer and if they get him, they will be paying him 33m.and give up players they value highly. If they lose that bid to another team, then they will wait on both Peralta and Skubal until next year when Manaea is definitely off the books and maybe some others as well depending on opt outs.
If they are able to make that trade, they will definitely do all they can to extend him before he hits free agency. Working in their favor is that the only teams that have a chance are the wealthy ones who can conceivably win championships, which boils down primarily to Toronto, Dodgers and Mets -- all familiar players now. And if his already on the Mets, the Mets can offer him something like they would have in free agency anyway, and stand a good chance of getting him long term.
I love, love, love this trade. Robert is an elite defender, has shown all-star offensive capabilities, has battled some injuries and labored on the worst team in baseball, and at just 28 yrs old, is a prime bounce back candidate. He can hit 7/8/9 in this lineup. The contract is also a perfect fit. Will Ewing be ready to take over CF in Citi in ‘27 or ‘28? Doesn’t matter as much now that we have a ‘28 team option on Robert. And we gave up a guy who had little current value for us and no options remaining, plus a 12th rounder, though it would have been nice to have a Harvard guy in the system. If Robert can hit anywhere close to where he was late last season, this is a difference making deal.
I’m pretty sure that Vientos will likely be a centerpiece of any deal they make for a SP, if they make one. With the number of guys on this roster who would benefit by cycling through as DH (Bichette, Polanco, Baty, Soto - please god let them DH Soto a whole bunch this year - and even Semien if he hits) it’ll be hard to find 300+ AB’s for Vientos. I love the upside of Vientos’ bat, and I don’t think they give him away, but he’s the odd man out here.
If McLean really is top of the rotation pitcher along with Skubal then the vast majority of the rest of staff is filled out by what is brewing in the minors. Either Sproat or Tong would be gone in the prior package to get Skubal. One of the next tier of pitchers as well, but others will be ready for the bottom half of the rotation, and if you had signed Bassett this year it will likely be a 2 yr deal, so you would have him for mid rotation as well as either Sproat or Tong. That would be a hell of a rotation. Mclean, Skubal, whichever of Sproat or Tong that does not go to Tigers to get Skubal and whomever comes up from the minors to join the rotation will all be under contract for years to come. That's why the potential of making the Skubal offer this year makes more sense to me now than it has previously
Gus, I just thought keeping Baty around for insurance if Bichette bolts after 1 year. Although I'm thinking with a strike pretty much definite, you would have to be foolish to opt out after this year. At least his salary would be grandfathered in.
Hey Guys, before we get ahead of ourselves, please keep in mind other than the last 30 games Roberts has been SHITE offensively.
While I am rooting for him to return to form...I'm not holding my breath. I'm happy with the elite fielding but his offensive stats in 2024/2025 are a tick above Taylor's Taylor had a better 2024 season.
And just like that...I'm back to bashing Robert...lol.
Wait on Skubal do not trade prospects for a 1 year rental! He'll be wearing Dodger blue next year anyway.
Agree 100% Gary. I feel the same about Peralta.
Here, too. No rentals for top prospects.
Few things: @ That Adam Smith -- I may be mistaken, but I believe Mets option on Robert is 2027, not 28. @Joe P -- Not sure about where anyone will be in 2027 if there is a lockout. I don't know where Skubal will want to live and I have no idea of what his temperament is, and I am not inclined to give up a lot for him, but I am not sure we would need to. Here's why. Suppose the Tigers have to pay him 33m for one year. It's either them paying that or someone else doing so. How much more will anyone else be paying to relieve the Tigers of 33million payroll for 2026 and no chance of signing him. Everybody also knows that Boras will push his player not to give up his free agency, so going into negotiations with the Tigers every team will assume the following is true: Tigers want to save 33m. The team who gets Skubal cannot feel confident that they have even a 30% chance of extending him. The Tigers can't threaten to keep him which would not be credible because they would be paying 33m to pick up a compensatory draft pick which is not a rational purchase price. So you begin negotiations there. They may feel that are a playoff team with Skubal. May well be. So you have to give them something that would be a replacement adequate to have a similar prospect. For me, from the Mets group of pitchers that would be Senga who comes in at 17m I believe which is less than the 33m they would have to pay Skubal. Then you have to sweeten it with an additional pitching prospect and a bat. I prefer sweetening with Vientos rather than Baty because Vientos will never have a position on this team and Baty can play 3rd, 2nd and probably first more than adequately. He will play 3rd both when Bichette needs a day off and when Lindor does with Bichette moving to SS. Neither is paid very much. Perhaps they would take Mauricio who is a better fielder than Baty and a better potential hitter from his strong side, but lacks plate discipline and does not have high BB IQ. Maybe there is an additional minor league bat years away but with a nice ceiling that you would have to throw in. But you are not giving up anything you need or rely on, while you are keeping the Tigers competitive for the playoffs and dramatically reducing their costs; and they can recoup their compensatory draft pick when Senga chooses free agency after 2027
Manaea is on the books for two more years. No matter the arbitration outcome, the Tigers lost Skubal. That offer was a joke and if they actually win, which I doubt, Skubal will be lost for a draft pick. If they lose, they can beg forgiveness, but they may as well trade him.
Adam, I don’t think it’s Vientos yet because Baty right now is overvalued and if he doesn’t hit like he did the second half last year with a very unsustainable .355 BABIP, his value will plummet. Vientos’ value won’t “plummet” as far. Trade Baty.
I agree with that.
But, you tried to hold it in…. LOL
Senga is an injury case. They’d be afraid of touching him. The offer: Clay Holmes, Ryan Clifford and Jett Williams. Throw in: Serrano.
The kittens don’t need pitching and need a first baseman and a second baseman. Also a catching prospect is like a gift card at Christmas… no one ever says no.
@Gus-- I seem to have the view of Vientos you have of Baty. Hopefully we are both mistaken. I confess to having no idea what Stearns will do re: Skubal. I do believe he will sign Hays and will not trade for Duran since that would mean that CF is the only outfield position open for our plethora of high end outfield prospects. I see one potential pitching move through free agency and one attempt at a trade. I do not believe Skubal is the first choice for a pitching move and that Peralta is. That may or may not make sense on reflection, and that is because it is not obvious that Peralta will cost significantly less than Skubal will. The Brewers would never go for Holmes + two top tier prospects. They need Peralta or a replacement pitcher that gives them a chance to compete with the Cubs for the division title. Holmes is not that guy. There other needs are all secondary compared to a pitching replacement. I believe the Mets are rightly a bit conservative with Sproat and Tong, but the Brewers might not be, and either has a ceiling much higher than Holmes. Your trade package makes more sense for Detroit, but I believe they would hope to get a higher ceiling pitching prospect. Take Serrano off the table for a second and you have to give up a high potential pitching prospect, and two very promising top tier position players to get either Peralta or Skubal for only one year of certainty. Why Peralta rather than Skubal. You shouldn't today believe you will outbid everyone to get either one you want when they become free agents next year. But it is reasonable to think you have a good chance to get one or the other of them. Well that would mean that if you lose out on Skubal after 26, you believe you have a good chance at Peralta. Same in reverse. And that is really just another way of saying that the two events: a trade for one for 26 and a free agency success for one for 27 are independent events. And that means you must treat them as such. As long as the prices are relatively comparable, choosing Skubal for 26 is a dominant strategy. it wins no matter the outcome in 27 (if you believe that Skubal gives you a better chance of winning in 26 than Peralta does).
I don't think the salary difference tips the scales in favor of Peralta in 26.
So at first blush, and on further reflection, my initial thought that Mets should go for Peralta now and wait for Skubals free agency to pursue him was based on two errors: not fully appreciating the independence of the events, and miscalculating the differential in costs to obtain them as one year rentals.
If both the Tigers and the Brewers are equally open to trade, the trade for Skubal is prima facie the better choice for sure unless you thought you would have to give up much more and better to get Skubal, but that may be completely wrong, and if Gus is right that what the Tigers need is 1B, 2B and catcher along with the right pitcher, the Mets are in a position to give up good options at each of those positions without hurting themselves.
On the other hand, you can just Bassett and see if there is a smaller trade for another pitcher under contract and wait until free agency of both Peralta and Skubal. The main thing holding me back from taking this approach is the investment I have now made in my team for next year and the uncertainty I have about the ability of my current starting rotation even with Bassitt to keep up with the rest of the team.
mistake. I meant to say 'Skubal is not the first choice and Peralta is'. The rest of the comment is designed to show that this is probably a mistake, i.e. that Skubal should be the first choice in a trade, which is the opposite of what I would have argued (and did argue) until this very minute
Which is just another way of saying, I've changed my mind, which is ok, but my new found confidence that we should trade for Skubal first if possible makes me wonder why I ever thought we should trade for Peralta instead. I better cook dinner for my wife and have a stiff drink before I change my mind again.
Ok, I give up. Mets get Peralta. I'm done guessing :-) Just when I was convincing myself it made sense to try to trade for Skubal. Guess work is useless. I'm sticking to analyzing. Mets did give up two very promising prospects. Sproat is a good catch for them and Williams is a very versatile player who projects to be a solid major leaguer. Brewers did well but no denying the Mets did as well securing a top of the rotation pitcher to go with McLean.
I predicted Hays signing so I will stay with that. I also wonder if there is a trade RVH has proposed of Manaea for Walker at 1B. No idea.
Hays makes sense.
It is now also true that the Mets have too many SP on the major league roster. No one is going to get cut; no one has options. And no resolution re: Mauricio, Baty,Vientos. Simple solution with only one move more which would be Hays or equivalent; option Mauricio; Baty is McNeil and he and Vientos handle bulk of DH duties. Benge makes the team out of ST and platoons with Hays.
I would bet against a trade for Duran as much because the Sox do not need pitching and it would create a block at 2 outfield positions which would make no sense. But then again, who saw Semien coming, Polanco, Bichette. Devin Williams, yes; Diaz leaving, no; Alonso leaving. Yes; Weaver? Definitely possible; Robert Jr.? On again, off again, so a definite possibility. Peralta? Also a possibility? a definite maybe. At this point, the best guess is that Stearns is not done, but...
It's fun to predict, and humbling to be so consistently mistaken. Both are valuable experiences to have :-)
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