Paul Articulates - To score, you need to get on base

What a simple premise.  In the game of baseball, you need to get on base to score a run.  Now that I have stated the obvious, let’s delve into the painful truth for this year’s 2026 Mets.

We are well aware of the fact that in the re-build of 2026, David Stearns sacrificed home run power for defensive prowess in a drive to prevent the opponents from scoring.  A simple assumption behind this strategy is that you could still outscore opponents.  That assumption has not been fulfilled in 2026, and along with many other failings, it has lead to a record that stands 17 games under .500 with only 65 games to play.

Mysteriously, getting on base has been a very difficult thing for this year’s team.  They have a team OBP of .303 which is just one point above dead last in baseball.  Only four players on this year’s team (Juan Soto, AJ Ewing, Carson Benge, and the absent Luis Robert) have an OBP higher than the National League team average of .321.  This is beyond awful and puts a very succinct stamp on the root cause of the team’s offensive woes.  On top of that, the Mets are fourth in the National League for grounding into double plays (69 times) so the very few runners that get on base are erased before reaching scoring position.  Diminished power and an uncanny ability to NOT get on base is a recipe for failure.

Here is a table of the current players (including some sent down) and their stats.  Caution: some of what you see in the table may be disturbing.

 

If you discount Luis Robert and MJ Melendez who are not playing with the team right now, there are only eight players that have an on-base percentage above .300.  Two thirds of the players listed in this table are below their career average in OBP, including Lindor (a stunning 43 points below), Semien (48 points below), and Bichette (33 points below).

This smells like a problem with the hitting approach.  Players are either confused or misdirected on how to approach their at-bats if they are performing this poorly compared to their own established capabilities.  The people responsible for the hitting approach are, of course, this year’s new Hitting Coach Troy Snitker and Assistant Hitting Coach Rafael Fernandez.  It seems that firing last year’s hitting coaches was a bad idea, particularly when Jeremy Barnes is now the hitting coach for the Washington Nationals (7th in OBP, 2nd in runs scored).

Where do the Mets go from here?  One could discount the early season results and say that it takes time for new hitting strategies to take hold.  One could blame the number of injuries and the musical chairs lineup for the lack of consistency.  One could say that the team acquired all the wrong players and should blow up the roster again.  Or, as I have suggested before, the team could bring in some outside experts to evaluate the deficiencies and make recommendations on how to change course.

Hope is not a strategy, so discounting the first four months of the season and expecting that it all comes together now is pretty naïve.  I think that the Mets have to back off on player meddling and let them get back to their basic hitting instincts and swings that feel comfortable.  Then study where to go in 2027 with an improved hitting strategy and a younger lineup.  The 2027 hitting strategy should acknowledge the fact that the team plays in a pitcher-friendly park with a lack of power hitters in the lineup.