What possible upcoming trades would decimate the already fragile faith and egos remaining with Mets fans after the 2025 mediocrity followed up with the nightmarish 2026 horror show?
Clay Holmes is a player who many are trumpeting being the recipient of a very un-Mets-like contract extension after having pitched quite well in 2025 and even better before injury in 2026. On the surface it makes a lot of sense but at the same time his conspicuous results make him highly desirable to other teams. With many of the other prospect trade candidates having less than stellar seasons someone who proves healthy enough for another team to roll the dice might net the highest level of return prospect stock which is seriously missing from the Mets upper minor league affiliates. He’s currently earning $13 million and holds a $12 million option for 2027.
Similarly, A.J. Minter when healthy has proven to be every bit as good (perhaps even better) than he was during his long career in Atlanta. His health is without question and his current metrics are stunning. Over 21 games he has a 1.000 WHIP, a 1.71 ERA and he’s striking out nearly one per inning pitched. Yes, his price is a little on the high side as he’s pulling down $11 million as a middle reliever and holds a player option to renew at that same rate for 2027. Still, the back of the baseball card numbers suggest he would bring back quite a return.
Now Brooks Raley is a little bit different in that his age will count against him. At age 38 he’s hitting the latter stage of his career but age is not keeping him from making himself into a major southpaw bullpen asset. He’s sporting a 1.96 ERA over 41 games with better than a K per IP and a nice WHIP of 1.118. He’s earning just $5.25 million and is a free agent at year’s end without any options, consequently the financial risk to a prospective trade partner is much lower than what they would absorb with Minter.
After these top three candidates it gets a bit murkier. Take Sean Manaea for example. His very uneven 2026 has him showing health but not much else. He’s earning $25 million for a 4.74 ERA over 21 games (7 starts). Anyone acquiring him is also absorbing a $25 million salary for 2027. While the Mets have said they are not looking to pay down contracts to facilitate trades taking place it would seem almost mandatory for the Mets to do so in this case unless simply salary relief for some lower level prospect warm bodies is considered good business.
Similarly Kodai Senga is also under contract through 2027. He’s not as expensive — $15 million per year — but that same salary is obligated for next season as well. The problem here is what’s happened on the mound. Well, that is an issue as is his health. He’s current offering up an 8.85 ERA though his overall American numbers are just a small amount of 3.00. It’s another case where you would almost have to make a financial incentive to get other front office executives even to consider taking a chance that they could revive the earlier Senga performances.
Other prospective trade options like Marcus Semien, Jorge Polanco and Francisco Lindor are looking for trade partners to swallow an awful lot of salary and a whole lot less likely to happen. Less expensive options like Brett Baty, Francisco Alvarez and Tyrone Taylor would be easier to move but the returns wouldn’t be at headline grabbing levels.
8 comments:
Manaea last 15 outings, a 3.82 ERA, a strikeout per inning, and a 1.28 WHIP, and a STRONG outing v. Dodgers yesterday. Teams will want him.
He is pitching well at the right time. He can help a contender get to the playoffs and allow the Mets to sell a little higher.
Still have to buy down manaea’s 27 salary just to move him for that same bag if used baseballs.
I think that cohen & stearns will take a more nuanced approach to buying down salaries at the deadline
Guys on expiring contracts - highly unlikely to make material buy downs
Guys with material commitments that are likely to be released by next year (Manaea, Senga) perhaps depending on return value or just the necessity of eating 100% of the 27 commitment. One issue here is that 27 may be a short season with a lockout so why pay down if the cash is forfeited? That’s a bet at this point.
Huge long-term contracts (Lindor) no way there is any buy down.
Semien & Polanco will be on the team next year - but they may or may not have starting roles - TBD
The bank of Cohen will remain open but there will be a penalty on stupid wasted spending going forward. Gotta force accountability to every front office going forward. The grace period era is over.
Hard to imagine Semien on next year's team.
Hard to understand Semien in this year’s team.
Yesterday, I wrote that I would trade Minter, Weaver, Raley, Brazoban, Holmes, Taylor, Bichette, and maybe Peralta, Robert and Manaea.
Well, someone will need to pitch and why give Manaea away and pay his salary when he can help next year too. Likewise, why just give away Robert’s tool shed and not hold onto it and see if you can benefit. As for Peralta, I’m not selling low. I’m holding him, giving him a QO and trying again next year.
As for Bichette, he obviously is the square peg in the round hole. Being just a few months into a crappy year and a long history of success, I’d see what can be gotten when there aren’t any bats in the market. If he also has low value, he can stay and try again next year.
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