MMs Top 25: #22 LHP Brad Wieck

#22 LHP Brad Wieck (LR: not ranked)

Bats: L Throws: L
Height: 6' 9" Weight: 255 lb

Age: 23
Acquired: 2014 Rule IV draft, 7th round, Oklahoma City University

2014: (SS-A) 1-1, 1.40 ERA, 25.2 IP, 13.7 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, 0.896 WHIP

     Wieck is a interesting, albeit, relatively unknown commodity. One thing we do know though is that he is a BIG MAN! At 6' 9" and 255 lbs, Wieck is the largest prospect in the Mets system right now besting fellow 2014 draftee and 6' 8" monster himself, Josh Prevost. Wieck had a tumultuous college journey which took him from the University New Mexico to Frank Phillips College, then to Cisco College, and finally to NAIA participant OCU. That's right....NAIA....not NCAA Division I or II or even III.....NAIA. Facing inferior talent, Wieck racked up 118 K's in only 69.2 IP while only walking 23 both as OCU's closer and as a starter down towards the end of the 2014 season.

     Weick signed immediately after being drafted and was sent to Brooklyn to build on his 69 IP this season and to prove that he's capable of sticking with NCAA caliber talent. Not only did he prove himself, but he flat out dominated the New York-Pennsylvania League. As a reliever for the Cyclones, Wieck struck out nearly 40% of the batters he faced and held batters to a .181 Batting Average Against including only 1 HR against him thanks to a ground-ball rate of 32.7% vs. a fly-ball rate of 21.8%.

     Wieck's size combined with his stuff is what makes him so intriguing. His fastball clocks in between 92 - 94 mph, which is plus velocity from a left handed pitcher, and his size and release point generate a ton of downward movement on it which generates ground-balls. His primary secondary pitch is a curveball that clocks in between 74-76 mph. The pitch has pretty solid two-plane movement break and he has the ability to throw it for a strike or bury it low in the zone to get batters to chance. He also has a change-up in his arsenal, however, the pitch is viewed as poor to below average at best. While the speed differential is pretty good (92mph fastball vs. 78 mph change), he tips the pitch at times slowing his arm speed and the movement on it is a pretty flat downward motion that most batters can pick up on.

     His size and two pitch arsenal could make for an excellent MLB LOOGY and maybe even a late inning, double play specialist MLB reliever. His dominance in Short Season A tells me that, if the team decides that RP is the route to go, he could move quickly like Josh Edgin did when he was drafted. In that scenario he would start 2015 in St. Lucie, but, if the Mets think they can work with him on his change-up and develop a 3rd pitch so that he can start, then he'll be in Savannah come April 1st.


Ceiling: MLB LOOGY/Ground Ball specialist. (Brett Cecil)
Floor: Taxi Squad RP
Anticipated Assignment: (A+) Port St. Lucie 8th inning reliever setting up Akeel Morris

Mack’s Friday Morning Weekly Mets Recap – 2-27 – Harvey Day, Blocking Nimmo, Chris Mitchell Prospects, Playoffs, dD vs. Kirk

Good morning.

We’re getting closer to opening day and no one seems to agree when Matt Harvey’s first game will be. First they said it would be the home opener on April 13^th, but then Terry Collins said on Saturday that Harvey would pitch in the first five games of the season.

Either way, there’s a tremendous amount of concern in camp whether or not the old Harvey returns to the mound now that he’s put surgery aside. Sandy Alderson says that it’s ‘not out of the question’ for Harvey to achieve 200 innings, ‘including the playoffs’. Let’s go back and remember that the last time he did pitch for the Mets, two things stood out. One, he averaged 6.85 innings per outing and two, it seemed like the Mets never supported him with a single run during most of those outings. If Harvey starts late in April, that would mean a probable four starts in April and a max of 27-28/190 innings.

I wonder if the lack of support added to Harvey’s headstrong attitude regarding how he approaches the game had anything to do with his injury. Did he ‘over pitch’ because his team couldn’t manufacture him a lead?

The 2015 Mets rotation will have much more talent than the 2013 version, but that means nothing to Harvey. He’s a one man head case either on his way to the Hall Of Fame or a hospital ward named in his honor.

I believe the Mets will have much success from their rotation this season, but not here. My guess is a .500 season, countless uncomfortable moments and quotes  with both coaches and the press, and even a possible repeat of his arm problems.

Harvey will not throw a ball below 100%. He just won’t do it and everyone could suffer here because of it.

There’s a story out of Binghamton that Mets outfield prospect Brandon Nimmo may start the 2015 season back with the B-Mets due to the fact that the Mets outfields, as Sandy Alderson said, are ‘backed up’. He also said this was the same thing that happened last year to catcher Juan Centeno.

We talked about ‘blocking’ a few weeks ago and I said that I didn’t see a single situation where a Mets prospect was being blocked. Now, it seems this could happen to Nimmo and did happen to Centeno (though I never considered Centeno a prospect).

I have no problem with Nimmo beginning the season in Upstate New York. He's used to snow. In fact, that’s where I have him projected, but I do have a problem if he gets clogged down behind a bunch of non-prospect wanabees that are going nowhere. The current Mets outfield is built around Juan Lagares in centerfield, who I see someday playing in an all-star game. The other two positions are dominated by the contracts that stand behind the players; however, I see an opening in 2016 for Nimmo if the Mets don’t slow track him.  

The best I can predict for Michael Cuddyer is a disappointing 2015, a probably return to the DL at least once during the season, and a platoon at first base in 2016 (frankly, there’s plenty of material here for an entire separate post).

Nimmo could start the year for the B-Mets, end the minor league season in Las Vegas, spend September with the Mets in Queens, and open up the 2016 season as one of your starting corner outfielders.

And before anyone writes back because their nose got out of joint with my definition of excess outfielders at the AAA level, this is how the game works folks. You draft a bunch of players, sign a bunch more internationally, and no matter how long or well they play the game, it comes down to three starters and two substitutes on the parent team. Most very decent baseball players never get above the AAA level. 

Even more depressing is most of them never get the chance to hit against both right handed and left handed pitchers. They are brought up through the system as platoon players and don't stand a chance of being an every day player in the majors.

Occasionally a Lagares comes along and surprises all of us, but most of the time we can figure out who is going to make it and who isn’t. Right now, the Mets system has a lot of ‘who isn’ts’ and they sadly need to step aside.

This is the time of the year that everybody comes out with their prospect list. Thomas Brennan and I took a stab at ours last month and Chris Soto is posting the official Mack’s Mets list as I write.

Chris Mitchell over at Fangraphs may have outdone us all.

He lists the current top 200 prospects, in order, and, for the Mets they would be: #6 RHSP Noah Syndergaard, #12 2B Dilson Herrera, #55, RHP Marcos Molina, #56, RHP Rafael Montero, #102, OF Brandon Nimmo, #123 RP Akeel Morris, #126 IF Thomas Brennon  Matt Reynolds, #130 OF Ivan Wilson, #153 C Kevin Plawecki, #158 P Matthew Bowman, #159 SS Amed Rosario, #182 P (he is a pitcher, right?) Emmanuel Zabala, #188 OF Cesar Puello, and #190 SS Wilfredo Tovar.  

I mean, 14 Mets prospects and no Steven Matz? 

Mitchell spends a considerable amount of time trying to defend his ‘KATOH’ system of picking prospects and dissing the likes of players like CWS SS Tim Anderson and Houston RHP Mark Appel. I’ve got my own problems with picks like Zabala over Matz.

I always tell this to anyone who asks me advice on how to develop a prospect list. Do not make this a popularity contest by flaunting one player for what he has produced in one year of his career or predict him to double or triple what he has done in the past in the next year. Now you’re just being an untrained fan and your whole list loses validity 

I loved the amount of Mets on Mitchell’s list but I wouldn’t give his next list a second glance.

 I do want to stop here and say one thing in case my Harvey ‘gloom and doom’ assessment makes you feel that I feel that the Mets will not make the playoffs this season. That’s wrong. I think they will win enough games to qualify for one of the wild card teams and, then, they’ll turn it over to the hot pitcher at that time of the year (with the right amount of rest) and we’ll all cross our fingers.

However…

I don’t think this will be a season where any particular players are going to max out, stat wise. It’s just not that kind of lineup. My guess is Lucas Duda and Daniel Murphy will give us the same kind of season they did in 2014, and Juan Lagares might increase his batting average into the .290 range. Past that, I do look for excellent seasons from David Wright (for his age… 25-HRs, .275-.280) and the POY will be Travis d’Arnaud. My guess is at least five d’Arnaud clutch home runs will either create the lead that the team wins by or is a genuine walk off. I think d’Arnaud is going to be a perennial all-star. I really do.

Past that, I don’t expect positive results from either corner outfielder or anyone that plays shortstop.

However…

What the Mets are going to do this season is teach itself how to win ballgames. They will stop throwing of kicking away a lead and they will follow where their pitching staff takes them. The pitchers will create the routine fly balls and soft grounders needed to stay out of the error column.

I've told you a number of times that I played third base. I never made an error on a routine ground ball. It was always the ones that were hit sharply, especially the ones right at me. Bad pitching creates those kind of hit balls and the Mets have very little of that these days. It will be the pitchers that reduce the errors in the field, not the players making the plays.

You’re going to see a lot of 2-1, 3-2, and 4-3 ballgames here. Timely hits and decent (lucky?) defense is going to determine what side of the final score the Mets are on.

dD vs. Kirk – I was reading something that Reese Kaplan wrote about Matt den Dekker and I realized that I never seem to talk about this guy. I think what happens to me is that the Mets turn most of their outfielders into platoon players and I just never have the respect for them anymore to become full time major league players. 

The perfect case would be both den Dekker and Kirk Nieuwenhuis.

Neither one of them have anything more to prove in the minor leagues, but the only major league at-bats they have received have been against right handed pitching.

Whether you like it or not, the starting Mets outfield is Curtis Granderson, Juan Lagares, and Michael Cuddyer. This leaves two substitute slots, one for someone that hits from the right side of the plate and the other from the left.

Den Dekker and Nieuwenhuis are both lefties and, in 2014, hit .255 (den Dekker, 137-Abs) and .262 (Nieuwenhuis, 103-Abs) against righties.

Here’s the problem. These are their platoon numbers and they don’t say .355 and .362. This is the best they have done against the kind of pitching they should be eating up. 

It’s just not there.

For me, the difference is the three home runs that Kirk had (dD had none!) and his .855 OPS. They both offer excellent defense and, frankly, I also give Kirk the push here, arm wise.

My hope is to see a lot of one of these guys in the eighth and ninth inning of every game the Mets are leading. I really don’t care if either one of them get a hit… I care that they prevent one.

Tom Brennan - PROJECTIONS: METS RELIEF PITCHING 2015 VS. 2014

Tom Brennan - PROJECTIONS: METS RELIEF PITCHING 2015 VS. 2014

My last article, starting pitcher projections.  Today, break out the Rolaids, ‘cause it's Mets reliever time. How'd they do last year, AND what up with this year, dog?

Boy, did it look bleak early last year. Bobby Parnell, fresh off serious neck surgery, wasted no time in blowing the first game save....and his Tommy John ligament.  So...let's try Farnsworth...yuk.  Valverde? Yuk squared.

Two things looked obvious for the pen.  Doom.  And Gloom.

They got lucky.  Jenrry Mejia wanted to start and wanted no part of the pen...made 7 largely ineffective starts, got switched to the pen, and despite the late start there and having essentially no experience as a closer, he rocked it with 28 saves.  JEN-RRY!!!

Best closer in the league?  No.  But did he do fine and fill a huge gap capably?  Yes.  And he's got GUTS!

My favorite memory of Jenrry was a game vs. Philly, where it came down to him vs. Ryan Howard, who pointed his bat menacingly at Mejia to psyche him out, but Mejia did not flinch, but stared in for what seemed like ages, and looked like he was really ENJOYING this head-to-head. The fact that Howard won this battle was irrelevant.

Some think Parnell gets his closer role back over Mejia.  I don't see why.  Jenrry’s to lose, IMO.

The 2014 pen also had very unexpectedly good performances from Josh Edgin, Dana Eveland, and Buddy Carlyle, who combined for 3-2, and a 1.78 ERA in 86 innings.

2014 also marked the emergence of Jeurys Familia.  I was highly confident that he'd excel when in 2013 winter ball, he struggled after his elbow chip surgery....until his last 4 2/3 shutout innings when he K'd ELEVEN.  Eleven Ks in 4.2 innings spells overwhelming dominance.  Right there, I felt big things were coming.  Right assessment.  Familia was just 2-5, but sported a 2.21 ERA in 77 innings over 76 games.

Who else? Vic Black had a terrible spring, another guy who helped inspire early season Doom and Gloom.  But he got it together, after a minor league stint, and had a solid season (2-3, 2.60, in 34.2 innings).

Of course, on the low budget Mets, there were bargain bin guys, not all of whom will work out.  Lannan and Germen are 2 that come to mind.  Dice K did a decent job and Carlos Torres was fine (except for the 11 relief homers he allowed in 92 innings), so the bargain bin did pretty well in 2014.

                                In 2015, I see bullpen improvement.  

Now-seasoned guys like Mejia, Black, and Familia should excel.  A returning Parnell (2.16, 22 saves in 2013) too - I still doubt he'll be back on opening day, though, just 12 months after TJ surgery.  I see a Montero and/or a Gee helping them avoid the bargain bin crap-heap.  Good righty arms in Cory Mazzoni and Hansel Robles to tap into as needed. 

 Eveland and Carlyle, as noted, were bargain bin beauties.

But Farnsworth, Valverde, Germen, Rice, and Lannan were bargain bin busts: 51 earned runs in 87 innings.  Going to the bargain bin too often is a great way to sabotage a season.  A lot less of that is likely in 2015.

After Edgin, another pen lefty of quality should emerge, out of Jack Leathersich, Dario Alvarez, or Sean Gilmartin. None of those three is a sure thing in 2015, much less of Andrew Miller quality.  I think the 2^nd lefty slot represents the most risk to the Mets in the pen going into 2015; it can perhaps be coped with by going with just one lefty at the season’s start.

Tainted by the early season bad bullpen, the Mets' relievers went a mediocre 22-28, but with a decent ERA of3.14 and 466 Ks in 478 relief innings...but with only 42 saves in 64 save opportunities.  

 RECAP:

In my last article, I projected a stronger starting staff, supported by stronger offense, to go 72-48.  

I see the pen going 20-22, with an ERA of3.00 or less and far fewer blown save opportunities with a more stable, seasoned bullpen.  

Whoops, adding the projected starter and reliever W-L #s together, I guess that puts me at 92 wins, up from last year's 79.  

 Make sense to me?  Yes.  Why?

·       A stronger offense, which I project to score 120 more runs than 2014.  

·       A stronger starting rotation, winning a lot more games with the aid of better run support, and...  

·       A stronger pen, especially at the start of 2015 vs. 2014.

 I could be wrong...I hope I am right.

To help you see my overall pitching logic, I am adding below my recent article on the starters, and my chart of offensive increases/decreases projected by position.  See what you think.  I was not optimistic going in to 2014, but I'm very optimistic now.  92 wins.  

PRIOR ARTICLE - PROJECTIONS: METS STARTING PITCHING 2015 VS. 2014

The Mets ranked 9^th overall in ERA in 2014 at 3.49, behind the Nats (3.03 – 1st) and Braves (3.38 – 5th) in their Division.

I will analyze their overall performance in 2014, and then give my view on 2015.

The starters went just 57-55, with a 3.67 ERA, leaving 50 decisions to the bullpen arms.  Pretty generous of them.  The bullpen guys thank them.

51 of those 57 wins were from the basic starting 5 (deGrom, Wheeler, Colon, Niese and Gee), with 6 other wins spread between Montero, Matsuzaka, and Mejia.  Other than the basic starting 5, 25 games were started by those other 3 gents, including a spot start from Torres.

I think we’ll see some starter improvement in 2015 – forces aiding and hindering that in 2015 are itemized below:

POSITIVES

1)      Harvey’s Back – let’s say Harvey bumps Gee, who had a 4.00 ERA in 2014 in 137 innings.  Likely a big improvement there.

2)      A Full Season of deGrom – 2.69 ERA overall, and 2.16 in his last 100 innings, over 22 starts.  What will he do with 32 starts?  Some hint at some regression.  I’m thinking possible Cy Young.

3)      Wheeler Ready to Blossom – first 3 months of 2014, he had a weak 4.26 ERA.  Last 3 months, he went 2.52 in 100 innings.  My guess?  His full 2015 is much closer to his 2^nd half excellence.

4)      Better Starting Production from the Fill Ins: Torres, Mejia, Matsuzaka, and Montero were not bad (6-6, 4.23 in 137 innings over 25 starts), but I think this year’s fill in pitchers (likely to be less fill-in and more transitional – e.g., Thor, maybe Matz, or a seasoned Montero instead of last year’s more transient bunch) will toss to a better ERA.

5)      Better Starting Production from the Promoted:  2 or 3 of Niese, Colon, and Gee are likely to head out this year, leaving a rotation of Harvey, deGrom, Wheeler, Thor, and Montero or Matz.  Niese, Colon, and Gee combined to pitch to an ERA of 3.83.  I already bumped Gee for Harvey above, so Niese and Colon were a combined 3.76.  I think the young call ups can do as well or perhaps a bit better.

HEADWINDS

1)      Shorter fences will lift ERAs a bit, but the three pitchers most often spoken about as being likely to depart (Niese, Colon, and Gee) gave up 57 of their 141 homers surrendered (40%) in their 527 innings (36% of the Mets’ innings).  57 in 527 innings (or 1 every 9.24 innings) is a tad high.  Syndergaard and Matz have only given up 34 homers (26 and 8 respectively) over 702 innings (427 and 275, respectively) in the minors.  That’s 1 every 20.64 innings.   So I think those 2, while neophytes in terms of not yet being in the bigs, will surrender fewer homers per inning than the veterans they may replace.

Harvey, who will replace Gee, allowed just 12 homers in 237 career innings, or 1 every 19.75 innings.  Long story short, the fences coming in will help the Mets’ hitters more than it will hurt their pitchers.

2)      Harvey coming back from Tommy John.  All reports sound promising, but will he be 100% Dark Knight when he returns?  Time will tell.

3)      Transitional uncertainty – Gee, Colon, and Niese have many combined years of big league experience, which counts for a lot.  It is also unclear if only Thor will join the rotation in 2015, or Matz or Montero will.

Overall: 

I see the starters going 72-48 with an ERA of 3.20 in 2015, a substantial jump over the 57-55, 3.67 of 2014, for all of the reasons above...plus I believe the offense will score 120 more runs in 2015.  More offense, more wins.

SUMMARY OF MY METS’ OFFENSIVE PROJECTIONS, FROM A RECENT ARTICLE:

Position	2014 RBIs	Projected 2015	Difference
First Base	96	110	+14
Second Base	73	70	-3
Shortstop	57	80	+23
Third Base	69	90	+21
Catcher	74	75	+1
Left Field	46	80	+34
Center Field	76	75	-1
Right Field	78	90	+12
Pinch Hitting	18	30	+12
Pitchers	12	20	+8
TOTALS	599	720	+121