MACK -.MY Sunday Observations Report -

 

Good morning.

 

The recent signings by the Los Angeles Dodgers have caused me to wonder just how important it is the operate a baseball team below the luxury tax limits… especially if your team is making a shit load of money or your owner is richer than the soon to be installed President.

(by the way… still think the best team in history was the 1977 Dodgers)

The current Mets are becoming dominant in power bats. 3B Mark Vientos, SS Francisco Lindor, RF Juan Soto, and emerging C Francisco Alvarez are all flashing current and future home run creds. Should we wait to see if current Mets chain prospects develop into the next one?

Well, that worked for Vientos, seems to be working for Alvarez, was stalled due to an injury for Ronny Mauricio, and failed for Brett Baty. This time last year, we thought Jett Williams, Drew Gilbert, Alex Ramirez, and Ryan Clifford would be banging down the CitiField doors this spring. How’s that working out?

Is it wrong… IF you can afford to do it… to look to the future at players like 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B Alex Bregman, 3B Nolan Arenado, 2B Ozzie Albies (2026 FA… team opt), DH Joc Pederson (2026 FA), and DH Kyle Schwarber (2026 FA)?

And what about the prospects in the chain? Do you stop targeting future bat growth? Absolutely not. But all the hits in the world at the AAA level “don’t mean squat” if you can’t do the same in the majors.

I strongly am in favor of continuing to go down the current Stearns/Steve plan of bring in a major bat a year… Soto this year… Vlad Jr. next year… and so on. Keep building this team on prime beef and let a prospect or two shock you along the way.

 

Starter pitching remains another animal. No team is going to trade their ace. Hell, forget their SP2 also. And it seems like every team is in during free agent time when that handful of top shelf starters become available. Both the sensible and economical thing is to draft your brains off in this category.

You have to develop your own starters to accomplish building a decent rotation. So far, the Mets have done well with David Peterson. It looks like Christian Scott will develop as well. Future pieces could be any combination of Brandon Sproat, Jonah Tong, and Nolan McLean. Longshots are Jonathan Pintaro, Douglas Orellana, and Jack Wenniger. Considering they have both Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea under extended contracts, the Mets rotation may not be in bad shape during the remainder of this decade.

We get excited about prospect pitchers, but let’s remember last year at this time we were excited about Dom Hamel, Mike Vasil, and (especially me) Blade Tidwell.

Baseball Ga Ga.

 

This is the time of the year that people do resolutions and predictions. I stopped doing each year ago. I will give my overall observations on how the Mets have done during the off season when the signing is done. Right now, if no one else is signed, it’s going to be hard to say the Mets did bad due to the Soto signing.

MetsTwitter has been harsh to Stearns-Cohen. It may even have chased away my friend Steve from X. His site remains down without explanation. I will miss him there.

Fans are weird. They seem to always forget that it takes two to tango. For all we know, there are 10 decent offers on the tables of 10 free agents out there and all this is being held up by these player’s agents. There are no more leaks from Queens so we all have to wait this out until spring training starts. If you don’t like it, go watch soccer.

 

Ben Weinrib of MLB.com wrote a story on 12-30-24 about 18 exciting prospects set for full-season debuts in 2025. One was a Met:

                                        Jeremy Rodriguez, SS/2B, Mets

Rodriguez has an unusually high floor for a Rookie-ball player thanks to his defensive instincts, plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills. The Mets have played him some at second base so his defensive home is worth monitoring as well as his power, which has mostly manifested in the form of doubles to this point.

NYM No. 7 - Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 45 | Run: 50 | Arm: 55 | Field: 50 | Overall: 50

Rodriguez was the D-backs’ biggest international addition in 2023, signing with the club for $1.25 million out of the Dominican Republic in January. He didn’t last long in the organization after a strong walk rate and OBP in the Dominican Summer League caught the Mets’ eye, and New York acquired him in a one-for-one swap for Major League outfielder Tommy Pham at the Trade Deadline. Rodriguez went 19-for-45 (.422) with eight extra-base hits, 11 walks and four strikeouts in 13 games for a Mets’ DSL affiliate after the move, further solidifying his status as a prospect to watch in his new organization.

Batting from the left side, Rodriguez was nearly stellar at protecting the plate in his first professional season, especially considering he didn't turn 17 until July. His 1.06 BB/K ratio ranked third among the 15 qualified DSL players playing in their age-16 seasons in '23. With only three of his 18 extra-base hits leaving the yard, his power plays best to the gaps, but it was always likely he’d need some time to get the pop to play in games.

The 6-foot infielder boasts above-average arm strength needed for long throws from shortstop, and while he’s just an average runner, he has the hands and footwork to keep getting work at the six. Notably, the Mets got him some looks at second base to keep his athleticism up the middle. Rodriguez will take his advanced approach stateside with plenty of development still to come.

 

Ernest Dove                 @ernestdove

18 year old Jeremy Rodriguez could become the "poster child" for player development under Stearns. Kid has already gotten reps/ABs stateside now & is ahead of the curve. Good enough BB/K rates so far. I've seen concerns with his glove so future pos like a Jett type is to be found

Mets News and Links 

@JohnFromAlbany

Jeremy Rodriguez has to be the Mets prospect to watch in 2025 as he will start the year in St. Lucie and may even see a call up to Brooklyn. He was heavily hyped after being traded from Arizona hitting .282/.355/.400 in 50 FCL Mets games in 2025. I want to see him in the field to see if he can be a future SS.

 

It will be interesting to see what position the Mets play him at in St. Lucie. He would showcase better as trade bait if they played him at short, but he would have a future as a Met (ETA: 2027) as a second baseman.

 

One prospect to watch for each team in 2025 - December 29th, 2024

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-prospects-to-watch-in-2025?partnerID=web_article-share

Mets: RHP Brandon Sproat

Plenty of questions remain regarding Sproat’s ability to develop into a true frontline starter, yet he also has the best chance of anyone in New York’s system to make a significant midsummer impact. Just a step away from the big leagues, Sproat, New York’s top prospect, must first master the Triple-A level. But if he gets off to a nice start, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him debut early in the season, as fellow prospect Christian Scott did last year. With a triple-digit fastball, Sproat boasts an even higher ceiling than Scott, as evidenced by his No. 40 ranking on MLB Pipeline’s Top Prospects list. At the highest level, he’ll need to be a pitcher not a thrower, which makes Sproat’s early-season development crucial to his chances. -- Anthony DiComo

 

I happen to think that Jonah Tong is the top Mets pitching prospect, but Sproat is a close second. One caveat… he did hit the wall when he was promoted to Syracuse. AAA is the introduction to old major league players that can still hit a pitch or two. Like many other pitchers in the past (Hamel, Vasil, etc.), let’s just say that Sproat had a hard time finding something positive in that brutal weather city.

His job in 2025 is simple. Steer the boat correctly and get back to producing stat lines like he did at the other levels he pitched in. If he does that, you could see him in Queens sooner than later.

 

Each team's breakout player for 2025 - December 30th, 2024

https://www.mlb.com/news/2025-mlb-breakout-players-for-every-team?partnerID=web_article-share

Mets: C Francisco Alvarez

Now that Mark Vientos has broken out, the Mets can hope for the same from his younger teammate, Alvarez. Entering his age-23 season, Alvarez has struggled to find consistency at the plate, and he dropped from 25 homers as a rookie to just 11 last season. But Alvarez improved his batting average and on-base percentage in Year 2, as well as his throwing arm behind the plate. He now has 228 games of experience at the game’s highest level and is at an age when players tend to break out. Often lauded for his work ethic, Alvarez still has a chance to be one of the game’s top offensive catchers. -- Anthony DiComo 

First of all, no one wants to see this “kid” play better this season than I do. That being said, he’s going to have to do a lot of things different in 2025 than he did in 2024.

First, stop worrying about the home runs here. There are plenty of other players on this team that can lead the way in that category. Just find a way to even out your game and produce productive batting results month after month.

As for defense, I don’t know what to do about his lack of being able to throw out runners at second. Let’s face it… opponent teams don’t attempt steals with their slower runners. It’s always the speed guys and Alvarez’ arm just isn’t strong enough.

Lastly, I think Alvy is an IL man walking. No proof or science or analytical study here. Just my gut. 

Lastly…

 

Prospect1500 - New York Mets Top 50 Prospects (2025)

Prospects1500 Tiers:

Tier 1: Players with high expectations of both making the majors and playing at an All-Star level for a number of years

Tier 2: Players with an above-average expectation of making the majors and being a solid contributor

Tier 3: Players with an average expectation of making the majors and being a solid contributor

Tier 4: Players who have the potential to make the majors; possible sleeper candidates for sustained MLB success

Tier 5: Players of interest, worth keeping an eye on, who may make (or have made) the majors but provide minimal impact

 

Levels listed for each player are the highest levels player reached in 2024

 

Tier 1

None                            

Tier 2

1. Jett Williams, SS, 21, Triple-A

2. Brandon Sproat, RHP, 24, Triple-A

3. Drew Gilbert, OF, 24, Triple-A

4. Luisangel Acuña, SS/OF, 22, MLB

Tier 3

5. Ronny Mauricio, SS/OF, 23, Injured (MLB in 2023)

6. Ryan Clifford, 1B/OF, 21, Double-A

7. Carson Benge, OF, 21, Single-A

8. Jonah Tong, RHP, 21, Double-A

9. Jesus Baez, SS/2B, 19, High-A

10. Blade Tidwell, RHP, 23, Triple-A

Tier 4

11. Jeremy Rodriguez, SS, 18, Rookie (FCL)

12. Nolan McLean, RHP/DH, 23, Double-A

13. Nick Morabito, OF, 21, High-A

14. Colin Houck, SS/3B, 20, Single-A

15. Alex Ramírez, OF, 21, Double-A

16. Boston Baro, 3B/SS, 20, High-A

17. Yovanny Rodriguez, C, 18, Rookie (DSL)

18. Kevin Parada, C, 23, Double-A

19. Marco Vargas, SS, 19, Single-A

20. Jonathan Santucci, LHP/DH, 22, College

Tier 5

21. Felipe De La Cruz, LHP, 23, High-A

22. Dom Hamel, RHP, 25, Triple-A

23. Trey Snyder, SS, 19, Single-A

24. Jacob Reimer, 3B, 20, High-A

25. Jeffry Rosa, OF, 20, Single-A

26. Edward Lantigua, OF, 18, Rookie (DSL)

27. Calvin Ziegler, RHP, 22, High-A

28. Nick Lorusso, 1B, 24, Double-A

29. Daiverson Gutierrez, C, 19, Single-A

30. Christopher Suero, C, 20, High-A

31. Nate Dohm, RHP, 21, College

32. A.J. Ewing, OF/2B, 20, Single-A

33. Joander Suarez, RHP, 24, Triple-A

34. Ronald Hernandez, C/1B, 21, High-A

35. Eduardo Herrera, RHP, 24, Double-A

36. Wellington Aracena, RHP, 20, Single-A

37. Franklin Gomez, LHP, 19, Single-A

38. Bryce Montes de Oca, RHP, 28, Triple-A

39. Trey McLoughlin, RHP, 25, Triple-A

40. JT Schwartz, 1B, 25, Triple-A

41. Eli Serrano III, OF, 21, Single-A

42. Douglas Orellana, RHP, 22, High-A

43. Joel Díaz, RHP, 20, Single-A

44. Jack Wenninger, RHP, 22, High-A

45. Julio Zayas, C, 18, Rookie (FCL)

46. Raimon Gomez, RHP, 23, High-A

47. Brett Banks, RHP, 23, High-A

48. Jose Guevara, RHP, 19, Rookie (DSL)

49. Simon Juan, OF, 19, Rookie (FCL)

50. Jefrey De Los Santos, 2B/OF, 21, High-A

Me?

I agree there are no top tier prospects

I believe both Tong and Benge should be ranked above Clifford and Gilbert.

Having Orellana and Wenninger this low is close to criminal.

Reese Kaplan -- Who's on First AND Who's on Third?

With all of the back and forth regarding Pete Alonso and his lack of an active market for his services as a slugger, a few things have become clear.  The obstacle in the negotiations appears more to be about total money as it aggregates over the greatest number of years. 

As a refresher, remember that the Mets offered Alonso initially 7 years for $158 million which works out to an AAV of $22.5 million which for a guy who’s had three straight years of offensive decline is seemingly a reasonable number.  He turned it down.

Then came the newer number first revealed by Carlos Baerga.  In this proposed offer the number would be 3 years at $90 million with opt outs after each season.  The AAV jumps all the way up to $30 million which would make him the highest paid 1st baseman in the game but the total drops by $68 million.  In addition, they are two-way opt outs so it could be as little as a single year commitment of $30 million if Alonso tanks in 2025.  He turned that one down as well.

Reports surfaced in media that the latest stretch is 4 years and $108 million.  That is an AAV of $27 million.  On the plus side it is $4.5 million per year more than he would have gotten if he’d taken the initial offer but it still falls $50 million short of that previous contract total.  Word is that Alonso and his agent Scott Boras don’t like this approach either.

It’s fairly clear from the Mets front office perspective what is going on.  They don’t want to tie up so much money into one player for another hyper length contract after just doing so with the much younger and more productive Juan Soto.  Towards that end Stearns and Cohen likely feel they are in the driver’s seat which would force Alonso to swallow hard and take what’s offered or go find work with another ball club.

The unanswered questions to ponder during this soap opera of will he or won’t he is what the Mets do for an infield configuration at the corners.  It seems that there are 7 obvious configurations up in the air: 

Alonso at 1B, Vientos at 3B

Well, the same old, same old got them within 2 games of the World Series last year and no one could really squawk if there is a repeat of the corners for 2025 which now includes Juan Soto in the lineup. 

Vientos at 1B, Bregman at 3B

This argument is an interesting one because Vientos has extremely limited experience as a first baseman.  Bregman is a Gold Glove quality corner man at third base.  The issue here is the money Bregman wants.  Like Pete Alonso, in his mind he’s looking for his last contract of a long term totally over $200 million.  Like Pete Alonso, it certainly appears he will not get it.  Bregman is in the latter part of his career and his numbers have declined since his prime.  Figure with better protection he’d be booked for about 25 HRs and 90 RBIs to go with his glove.  That’s good, but not quite at the magnitude of Pete Alonso and for argument’s sake the same money.

Vientos at 1B, Arenado at 3B

This one is also interesting in the same way given Arenado’s superior defensive skills that accompany a top level bat.  His welcome in St. Louis appears to have vanished and they are currently on the hook for the remainder of his contract from 2025 through 2027 for a total of $74 million.  

While this number is certainly lower than the 3 years and $90 million offered to Alonso, it’s not chicken feed and you’re looking at a guy playing during his age 34, 35 and 36 seasons.  Also you need to either have the Cardinals pay down significantly on this contract to make a trade happen AND you need to give up most likely minor league resources in your upper echelon to make it happen.  

Arenado’s numbers have slumped a bit but still figure 28 HRs and 95 RBIs with a .285 average to go with a career metric of ten straight years with a Gold Glove is certainly more than respectable.  The less money the Cardinals put into a salary buydown the lesser the value of the trade prospects.

Vientos at 1B, Mauricio at 3B

Remember Ronny Mauricio?  Yes, he has power.  He has speed.  Theoretically now he once again has health.  It had appeared he’d be fighting Brett Baty to play third base when people looked ahead to the 2024 season but the injury happened and now has a missing season on his baseball card.  At his best in the minors Mauricio is indeed interesting with as many as 26 HRs in a season and as many as 24 SBs.  He did it at a .268 minor league career batting average.  Think of him as a speedier version of Eduardo Escobar.  Mauricio is good but not great and still unproven in the majors.

Vientos at 1B, Acuna at 3B

Ah, now here is a very interesting option.  If Jeff McNeil is still around then he owns second base and Francisco Lindor owns shortstop.  Acuna at 3rd base is not exactly the model most teams have for a corner man, but he’s shown the ability in the minors and now as a finalist for a Winter League MVP award that he can hit for average, show better power than you would anticipate from someone of his more petite size and can run like the wind.  While he is probably more well suited long term for second base, right now it’s third that may need filling and a 15 HR/40 steals guy who can hit over .280 is interesting indeed.

Vientos at 1B, Baty at 3B

Ah, you knew this one was coming.  Brett Baty has tanked in each of his major league playing opportunities, but extrapolate his home run display from 2024 to a full season’s worth and he’d be somewhere between a total of 35 and 40.  

The question is has he finally figured out the long ball swing at the expense of batting average?  Has his defense gotten any better as what he’s shown at Citifield thus far is shudder-worthy.  This option might actually have more merit than some of the others as it gives the Mets one last chance to have Baty show 29 other teams what he’s capable of doing.  At best they keep him around.  In the middle if he has a nice start he becomes a midseason trade option.  At worst he’s a non-tender candidate at year’s end. 

New acquisition at 1B, Vientos at 3B

Not much attention has been paid to alternative first basemen out there now that most of the top picks have already secured new employment.  The free agent market is pretty slim with Justin Turner, Connor Joe, Donovan Solano, Anthony Rizzo and Joey Gallo heading up the small prizes still available in the cereal box.  A trade is of course possible but if there’s any merit to a 2026 pursuit of soon-to-be free agent Vlad Guerrero, Jr. then why would they want to lock themselves into someone with a longer term future? 

So what do you think?  After all the brouhaha over these Alonso negotiations what do you think is the mostly likely scenario for the 2025 corners?

Reese Kaplan -- Is 2025's Team Better or Worse Than 2024's?

Having spent way too much time watching Youtube videos of the Mets moments in history during the year end holiday it got me to thinking about the team that came within two games of the World Series in 2024 and how it compares to the one thus far constructed to compete in 2025.  Let’s have a look.

Catchers

• Francisco Alvarez
• Luis Torrens

Infielders

• Pete Alonso
• Jeff McNeil
• Jose Iglesias
• Francisco Lindor
• Luisangel Acuna
• Mark Vientos

Outfielders

• Brandon Nimmo
• Harrison Bader
• Starling Marte
• Tyrone Taylor
• Jesse Winker

Designated Hitter

• J.D. Martinez

Starting Pitchers

• Kodai Senga (injured for virtually the entire season)
• Sean Manaea
• Luis Severino
• Jose Quintana
• David Peterson

Relief Pitchers

• Edwin Diaz
• Ryne Stanek
• Phil Maton
• Jose Butto
• Reed Garrett
• Tylor Megill
• Danny Young
• Adam Ottavino (left off playoff roster)

Now let’s take a look at the 2025 squad everyone is thus far banking on to make up those two games they fell short in 2024:

Catchers

• Francisco Alvarez
• Luis Torrens

Infielders

• Francisco Lindor
• Mark Vientos
• Jeff McNeil
• Luisangel Acuna

Outfielders

• Juan Soto
• Brandon Nimmo
• Tyrone Taylor
• Jose Siri (injured)

Designated Hitter

• Starling Marte

Starting Pitchers

• Kodai Senga
• Sean Manaea
• David Peterson
• Frankie Montas
• Clay Holmes

Relief Pitchers

• Edwin Diaz
• Jose Butto
• Tylor Megill
• Dedniel Nunez
• Reed Garrett
• Sean Reid-Foley (injured)
• Dylan Covey
• Griffin Canning

Ummm...other than the addition of Juan Soto which is, of course, a huge one, there seems to be an awful lot missing with Spring Training starting next month.  The glaring vacancies are in the infield, the outfield, DH and the bullpen.  We’ll address comments about each of them in a bit, but first let’s look at the starting rotation.

Now, going into 2024 no one knew what to make of David Stearns’ reclamation project heavy rotation with Manaea not showing brilliance and Luis Severino not showing health nor competence.  Holdover Jose Quintana was a known commodity to give you better numbers than Severino, Kodai Senga was injured and out of all by a handful of innings for the entire year and David Peterson was an unknown coming back from surgery on his hip.

Much to everyone’s surprise, these less-than-spectacular moves worked.  Yes, there were innings given to the likes of Adrian Houser and others no longer in the picture, but somehow Carlos Mendoza and Jeremy Hefner got more out of this ragtag bunch than could have been expected.

The problem is that in this offseason Stearns has pretty much gone the same route, first by offering up Frankie Montas as the new Luis Severino.  Well, on a career basis, he has had injuries and never posted the eye popping numbers the team needs.  Even more surprising is how much he is being paid in the hopes that the on-the-field staff and the pitching lab can help push hm into a more competitive direction.

David Peterson was clearly the best pitcher in the rotation in 2024, finishing with an ERA of just 2.90.  The problem is people think this level of performance was not a fluke but instead a new standard to expect in the coming 2025 season.  Everyone hopes it could be yet at the same time it may not be realistic to write it in stone.  

Rumblings exist that the Mets might try to sell high on Peterson and transfer the risk to another team as a part of a trade to help them in other places.  Surely you would get a whole lot more for Peterson than you would for Megill.

The wildcard in the mix for 2025 is not as much Kodai Senga’s return to dominance which is more probable if he is indeed fully healthy and playing regularly, nor is it Sean Manaea’s rebirth in the second half of the year.  He got his money and now must show it was not merely an extended hot streak.

No, the one area that no one can rightly predict is the conversion of star reliever Clay Holmes from the bullpen where he was rock solid for the Yankees to the starting rotation now that he’s hit his mid career stride.  

The Mets failed to make this effort on Seth Lugo so they are hoping that Holmes’ more dominant stuff can push him into an even higher performance level than the man who got away.

Going into the bullpen is a bit unsettling as the names there are, well, unsettled.  Both Nunez and Reid-Foley are recovering from injuries.  We know what Diaz, Butto and Garrett can do.  We’re not quite so sure about Covey, Canning and Megill if they are all slated to spend time supporting the starters.

Now the outfield is frankly a mess.  Soto is a star, no question about that, but Nimmo is coming off his worst MLB season in terms of batting average.  Tyrone Taylor and Jose Siri are 4th outfielders at best.  

It would seem that the possibility exists for Jeff McNeil or Starling Marte to take the field in left with Nimmo going back to center.  That’s not exactly an awe inspiring group of guys behind the infield.

On that note, let me remind you that the 2025 squad is missing a guy named Pete Alonso and another guy named Jose Iglesias.  Granted, the Mets have some infielders in the system.  I’ve already penciled in Acuna for a spot to replace Iglesias.  Then there are the futures of slumping Brett Baty and lost-in-2024 Ronny Mauricio.

Finally we come to DH.  Everyone was happy to see Steve Cohen spend for professional hitter J.D. Martinez who delivered a “meh” kind of season, often relegated to platoon with Jesse Winker taking the other half.  Neither of those guys are here anymore and somehow few would expect Starling Marte in his final contract year to post numbers even equal to the ho-hum total the team got from the DH slot in 2024.

Any way you slice it, the club has a lot of holes to fill and while there is still about 6 weeks before pitchers and catchers report, the fact is that there are 29 other teams also looking to shore up their rosters as well.  That means the available free agent pool is getting rather empty in many places and trades may need to be engaged to improve the team from where it was with its roster as last season ended.  Right now even with Soto it appears weaker.  

Paul Articulates – Cash in now

The New York Mets are still looking to bolster their starting pitching rotation.  Some top starters that were on the free agent market like Corbin Burnes (signed with AZ) and Max Fried (signed with NYY) have been lured to other teams already, there are a couple of big names remaining.  One of them, and to me the most interesting, is young Japanese star Roki Sasaki.

Sasaki is an interesting case because he is an international player who has been posted by his team, meaning that any MLB team can sign him.  Because of his age and experience, he is not eligible to sign a free agent deal, so he must sign to what is essentially a minor league deal with a bonus that is determined by the international bonus pool.  

Each team has a bonus pool determined by their market size and their positioning in the competitive balance draft rounds.  The size of this pool maxes out just over $7.5M.  The Mets have $6.26M.  

There are intricate rules for incentives and penalties that I won’t get into here, but the point is that teams have the ability to sign one of the best available pitchers out there for an AAV less than $1M, a bonus of $7.5M, and get six years of team control.  What a bargain!!

Another interesting feature of the international signing bonus pool is that teams can obtain up to $250k of pool money from another team through trades.  They also lose $500k for each free agent they sign that rejected a qualifying offer.  

There is a nice summary in MLBtraderumors.com if you would like to see the exact amounts each team has.

So if you are in the market for the “best deal in baseball”, and the 2025 bonus money becomes available to each team on January 15th which is 16 days before Sasaki’s window to sign closes, then it behooves you to make sure to maximize the amount you can offer.

Understand that not all of the 30 teams have the same chance to sign Sasaki.  The information that has been leaked about the process so far indicates that Sasaki has been very particular in what he is looking for in a host team, and it is not just money.   

My read is that he wants to be part of a team that is capable of making him the best pitcher he can be.  The fame and money can follow.  This positions the Mets very well, as their pitching lab and their recent history of transforming pitchers like Sean Manaea speaks volumes.  

There are other teams like the Dodgers that can also claim to have first class player development and technology to lure Sasaki, so a nice hefty bonus can help.

So what can the Mets do now that the sales pitches and owner visits have been completed?  The answer is to sweeten their bonus pot.  Go make some trades that include transfer of international bonus money to the Mets.  

I am not trying to imply that we should give away talented prospects just for small amounts of pool money, but that would have to be a condition of any trade for other talent.  This begs the question of what talent you put on the block.  Here are a few suggestions.

1. Brett Baty – Baty has been a promising prospect throughout his development, but stumbled when he got his chance in the majors.  He started hot, and then went into a prolonged slump when opposing pitchers found the hole in his swing.  

This has soured Mets fans, but does not mean that Baty is a lost cause – he is a very talented baseball player that may just need a different environment and a little less media pressure to get back on track.  A small market team that has a good amount of international bonus money but can’t match Sasaki’s wish list would be the perfect fit.  

Think Athletics, Mariners, Guardians, and Twins.  The Guardians have a pretty good third baseman in Jose Ramirez and the A’s just traded for Gio Ursela, but the Mariners and Twins are in need.  Maybe there is a deal for Baty where the Mets pick up a relief pitcher and some bonus money.

2. Kevin Parada – Parada was a highly touted prospect with a power bat.  He is still working his way through the development system, but has a few very talented catchers ahead of him, including Francisco Alvarez who appears to be the long term solution for the Mets.  

Seattle seems pretty healthy with Cal Raleigh, but the Twins and the Guardians are teams that need upgrades behind the plate.  Maybe there is a deal for Parada where the Mets pick up a relief pitcher and some bonus money.

3. DJ Stewart – Stewart spent some time with the Mets last year and showed some real power at times.  He was capable, though not spectacular in right field.  The Mets have a very strong outfield roster right now and the chances for DJ to break into the MLB roster this year are pretty slim.  He could add outfield depth to any of several teams that have top bonus money but low probability of luring Sasaki.

If David Stearns makes these three deals, the Mets could wind up with another $750k in bonus money, which puts them above $7M.  Couple that with the outstanding player development system; the state-of-the-art pitching lab technology; the advantage of a large NY merchandising market; and a team that will contend for a championship and you have a pretty solid proposal to win Sasaki.

Go get it done, Mr. Stearns!

Tom Brennan: A Peek at Mets Prospects; and a Look-Back on small cap v. BIG CAP Hitters

Two Former #1 Overall MLB Mets Prospects 

(Well, OK, one, not two, but who's counting?)

I occasionally like to see how other rankers list the Mets prospects.  Otherwise, I'd probably forget them altogether at my age LOL.

MLB in its recent top 100 ranking has 5 Mets:

Brandon Sproat at number 40, Jett Williams at 52, Drew Gilbert at 74, Ryan Clifford at 87, and Carson Benge at 99.  Those 5 #s total 352.

I suppose that having five prospects in the top 100 is very good in one sense: since there are 30 teams, each team should have roughly 3.33 prospects in the top 100 if it were completely evenly waited with talent. 

So, since 5.0 > 3.3, the Mets numerically are good. 

On the other hand, the Mets five top 100 prospects average out to just a 70 ranking (352/5), which is low.  You'd like to be at least the halfway point in the top 100, or 50, on average,

Meanwhile, a team like Boston has three position players in the prestigious MLB top 10: Roman Anthony at number three, Marcelo Meyer at number seven, and Kristian Campbell at number 10. 

Without studying the relative merits of those three versus the Mets five, if I had a chance to trade our five for their three, I’d probably do it in a heartbeat. Baseball teams live or die, more times than not, on their stars.  If you're in MLB's top 10, they no doubt think you will be a future star.

Detroit has the overall number five ranked player in RHP Jackson Jobe, the top pitcher in their Top 100 list (someday he may have such a storied career that someone will write the Book of Jobe, but I digress). Max Clark, the power hitting Tigers outfielder prospect, is seated at number six, and Kevin McGonigle is at number 31. 

- My guess is that if I had a chance to do a five Mets for three Tigers swap there, I would do that as well.

Another interesting overall analysis, which I may do an updated article on in about a month, is produced by Prospects 1500. 

Their list includes the top 1500 prospects (30 for each team). 

What is interesting with them is that they rank players from tier 1 through tier 5. 

Tier 1 are players that are expected by them to have highly successful careers With probably more than one All Star appearance.  Tier 2 include very competent future MLB players. Tier 4 are players that they consider as possible decent major league players down the road, and Tier 5 are players of interest that they expect to have minimal major league impact. 

They have yet to update their analysis since midseason, so I will only highlight a few Metsies, but at midseason, they had only Jett Williams as a Tier 1, and I'd not be surprised to see them slip him to Tier 2 based on his second half struggles. 

Sproat, Gilbert, Clifford, Acuna, and Mauricio (pictured), were at their # 2 Tier.

  

(It is weird to see Mauricio still in prospect lists. Memo to prospects: avoid long-term injuries.)  

Will they all be still at Tier 2 in P-1500's soon-updated list? We'll soon see.

Benge and Baez were ranked at Tier 3 by P-1500. Both being at early career stages, I'd be quite surprised to not see both of these talented chaps in P-1500's Tier 2 by mid-season 2025.

At Tier 3 were Tong, Tidwell, and Jeremy Rodriguez. Maybe Tong very shortly sneaks into their Tier 2 based on his continued strong progress in the 2nd half of 2024.

At Tier 4 they had Nolan McLean, Kevin Parada and Colin Houck.  I think in their upcoming update, McLean will be a Tier 3.  The other two will at best be Tier 4 when they update their rankings shortly.

And at Tier 5, P-1500 had Nick Morabito (pictured above) and Boston Baro, among others.  I am guessing Morabito jumps to at least Tier 4 in January's Prospects 1500 update, but a Tier 5 seems to imply my ongoing concern that he needs to add power.  If he does add some, why not Morabito at Tier 2 by mid-2025?  Why?  Glad you asked.

May I remind our readers that while lead off man Nick the Quick Morabito has yet to play in AA, where he will undoubtedly be assigned on opening day 2025, over the past 2 seasons, he has done this: 

664 at bats, a fine .310/.410/.400 slash, 26 doubles, 8 triples, (just) 6 HRs, and a gaudy 110 runs scored, along with 80 steals in 99 attempts.  

Add power, and that sure looks like Tier 2 material to me. 

So, where does all of the above leave us?

I think we have a good quantity of minors prospects (skewed towards hitters), but no Paul Skenes or Bobby Witts in the group.  Probably none that will even be close to that super duo, either.  Those two scream "MLB Superstar".

BTW: 

That was me pictured at the top, with Darryl, some years ago. Me?

I was the best athlete on my block growing up, and our block had lots of kids!

Best, that is, until my brother Steve surpassed me.  

Anyway:

Pastor Darryl preaches better than me, but I can out-sing him any Sunday.

He once spoke at Joel Osteen's church, but I was invited to sing there. 

True.

And Finally:

A LOOK-BACK AT TWO small cap AND BIG CAP METS HITTERS

Before I go, I saw this mid-May 2024 commentary in the article I found the above Darryl picture in.  Mid-May was shortly before the Mets turned around their freefalling 2024 season. 

So, it's the January dead period, so I thought I would re-post it:

baty … or VIENTOS? May I Choose?

So, here I am, on a fine Monday evening, waiting in the car for my wonderful bride, and my brother Steve texts me that he is out celebrating his first anniversary, but he adds that all the Braves do is HIT.

I reply that “All the Mets do is QUIT”.  Megill was good today, I added...5 innings, 3 runs, 2 earned, fanned 7. When you HIT and don’t QUIT, that is a good outing. I refuse to nitpick pitchers, when the hitters are crap. 

Nido homered, up to .241, but Lindor, .194. Time to hit, Frankie.

I then note that brett baty, he of small letters and smaller production, who is trying very hard to still hit his stride in his 3rd season, and coming up small, like the letters - he fanned his first two times up, and now comes up with the bags juiced and 2 outs. A hitter’s delight.

He, however, takes a big, fat, juicy strike one, admiring it as it goes by, and then pitch 2 is a swinging strike, and pitch 3 is a swinging strike.  

Three pitches, why prolong the agony? The Mets (and baty of the small letters and smaller production) leave the bags juiced. Which they are fond of doing, it certainly seems. That inning died at 3-1, which was the finally wimpy score from a wimpy team.

Sitting on the bench during all of this is my guy, MARK VIENTOS, who had 2 hits and an RBI yesterday and is hitting .333. 

I wonder why my guy MARK VIENTOS is not playing and the small letter, small production guy is.

Then I look at the small production guy’s last 15 games, which I have time to look up, since my wife still isn’t back yet. 

Turns out baty is 8 for 47 with 5 walks and 22 strikeouts in those 15 games. Which makes me wonder: 

Do the Mets want to actually, at some point in this decade, fight like desperate, cornered animals to win, like Pastor Darryl’s mid-80s teams did, or keep playing guys like the one with with small letters and smaller production who might someday learn to hit his weight in a month not named April? 

It is just so easy to lose 2 of every 3 games, isn’t it? Like breathing.

Message to Mets: 

Play the power guy with ALL CAPS. VIENTOS.

And not the guy with small letters and smaller production. baty. 

Who someday, some season, we fervently hope everything will click for. 

Let those things click for the small letter guy with the smaller production where he belongs…in Syracuse.

WHAT HAPPENED AFTER THAT MID-MAY ARTICLE?

No sooner had the ink dried, it seemed, we saw the Mets demote baty, elevate VIENTOS to the starting 3rd baseman role, and ignite as a team, as they “played like desperate, cornered animals” to out-win every other MLB team over the past 4+ months.

Reese Kaplan -- Mets Offseason Roster Bullet List Number Five

Mack's Mets will summarize players mentioned as possible new members of the team available via trade or free agency that have popped up in the media associated with them as a part of the 40 man roster.  These bullet points are not necessarily factual as if they were leaked from the Mets front office.  They comprise opinions, rumors and hypotheticals that various Mets beat writers and bloggers have felt necessary to put out into public notice.  Like EPA gas mileage ratings, take the news with a grain of salt.  We share but don’t necessarily endorse any of these transactions.

Pete Alonso Rumors

Well, where do you begin?  Apparently the numbers projected for Alonso are likely decreasing in AAV from what it would have been had the Polar Bear accepted the 6 year $158 million extension he declined.  That would break down to $26.3 million per year.  So how’s his market gone?

There are only rumors and not clear insider information about teams still having an interested in the formidable power hitter with at best modest defensive skills and no base running ability.  Right now the available list of suitors includes the San Francisco Giants, the Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays have all been cited at prospective landing places for the current former New York Met.  

The Giants did land Willy Adames which is a nice get but they also lost Michael Conforto so there is a need for additional power.  New GM and hometown hero Buster Posey is determined to propel the northern California team back into competitiveness and as such the glaring need for a first baseman and Pete Alonso seem to be a good match.

In the case of the Mariners, they need power in the worst way.  You really can’t deny that attribute about Alonso who is second only to Aaron Judge for home runs during their same time period in the majors.  Not since the days of Ichiro were the Mariners regarded as big spenders, though the $25 million per year man they have leading their pitching rotation might suggest things could be changing.  

Now the Blue Jays often make a number of questionable moves.  Facing the prospect of losing one or both of Vlad Guerrero, Jr. and Bo Bichette at year’s end, they may be doubling down on run productivity or opening up trade possibilities for Guerrero now if Alonso is on board to man first base or play DH.  

A story ran this week about the Boston Red Sox not having snared any of the major hitters this off season, a suggestion was made that they bring in Alonso to take over first base from Triston Casas.  Can Casas hit?  Yes, but as a left handed hitter he’s not going to take advantage of the Green Monster which is something right handed hitters have a greater natural ability to attack.  

Alonso is indeed a right handed masher and getting him from the Mets to help the Red Sox fight against the Yankees could indeed make sense.  Casas has hit 42 home runs but that is in aggregate over three major league seasons, not in a single year like Alonso did in a pitcher’s ballpark.

Another team that allegedly entered the Alonso sweepstakes is Arte Moreno’s losing franchise in Anaheim.  Being within easy driving distance of the seeming insurmountable World Champion Los Angeles Dodgers making them always the second southern California baseball fan option and by quite a distance.  

With 99 losses in 2024, annual gaps with Mike Trout on the IL and a lineup that includes several nice but not top-of-the-game other hitters, they need to do something to generate some headlines.  Bringing in Alonso could be that move, but the question exists whether or not Moreno will spend to make that kind of transaction.

The wildcard entry into the late running Alonso pursuit could be last season's surprise contending Detroit Tigers.  They did just secure Gleyber Torres and perhaps would see Alonso as another solid bat to add to the mix.

Well, what about the Mets themselves?  If you can believe the questionable source of former disliked Met Carlos Baerga who now is doing Spanish language broadcasts for the Cleveland Guardians, then apparently the Mets have made a three year $90 million offer to Alonso which raises the AAV by nearly $4 million over what Alonso turned down and also includes mutual options for 2026 and 2027.  

The AAV is very good news for Alonso, but if he could get $24 million per year but over 6 years elsewhere the end result is a guaranteed $144 million vs. a one year guarantee of $30 million.  To take this deal Alonso would have to feel he can turn it on for one more All Star season to increase his desirability and future price tag, opting out and joining the FA market in 2026.  Of course, wouldn’t that same rationale have been equally applicable to his walk year in 2025 when he had his worst season?

An interesting article ran yesterday about Scott Boras allegedly panicking a bit now that the Mets capped their offer to Alonso with a high AAV but a very short three-year term.  Given how poorly he did with late contracts last season, it may be that as teams get closer to the start of Spring Training he will perhaps nudge Alonso to take something rather than holding out for the perfect offer as he may have misread the market demand for the Polar Bear.

Other Rumors

Brett Baty in the minds of most Mets fans and media is a failed prospect while having produced very little with multiple extended looks.  In his first season in New York with David Stearns as the new POBO he got the ax after 171 ABs opening the door for Mark Vientos who never looked back.  A story emerged this week that if the Mets strikeout on Alonso and Alex Bregman both, then they would move Vientos across the diamond to take over at first base and leave third base open for a do-or-die final chance for Baty to be a major league third baseman in Queens.  

If indeed that possibility existed, it could surely be temporary with Ronny Mauricio needing some additional ABs in the minors after missing all of 2024 due to injury and Luisangel Acuna showing flashes perhaps more suitable for second base than third.  

Then there is another injury-battler in Jett Williams who needs to show his true abilities while healthy in Syracuse.  So at worst it would be at worst an April/May “get it done” chance for Baty.  (A rumor existed that the Kansas City Royals would make a trade proposal for Baty based upon his draft position and former top prospect rating).

Alex Bregman continues oddly not to see many offers either.  Many perhaps are waiting to see what happens with Pete Alonso before making the commitment to a similarly priced third baseman who puts up good numbers and provides exceptional defense.  Still, the Mets have to give him a top mark on their alternative FA acquisition list if nothing happens with Alonso.

Jesse Winker was not at the top of anyone’s list as a returning player, but things do change.  Between the still vacant DH position, the unsettled Pete Alonso situation and now the hand injury afflicting projected center fielder Jose Siri, it would seem that a known, proven and inexpensive hitter with the aggressive win-now personality in Winker moves up the charts.  He won’t help in CF, but could slot into left field with Brandon Nimmo moving to CF.  A story emerged this week suggesting he return to his roots in Cincinnati.

More than one piece emerged this week positioning the Mets to make a run at Anthony Santander as either a DH or as a corner outfielder which would also have Nimmo moving to his left side.  There is also a strange and never discussed option of inserting Santander at first base where he has started seven games for the Orioles and played in 13 where Alonso used to reside.  As a switch hitting player whose numbers are improving each year he would not be a bad consolation prize though the money some project would match what Alonso declined when a six-year deal was on the table.  

Want one to fuel both your heart rate and your ulcer simultaneously?  More than one piece suggested the Mets carry out a trade for Vlad Guerrero, Jr. right now.  The most interesting one suggest what on the surface appears to be a hefty price as he could still walk away as a free agent at the end of 2025.  It suggest the Mets send Tylor Megill, Ronny Mauricio, Ryan Clifford and Blade Tidwell for at worst a one-year rental of Toronto's current first baseman.  Chew on that one for awhile.  

Another now former Met was in the rumor mill this week with a suggestion that the Milwaukee Brewers having lost a lot of run production in Willy Adames instead make a run at new DH J.D. Martinez.  He's projected for a one-year deal under $10 million which is probably a lower price than he deserves though his 2024 was nothing special as well as concern about his 37 year age. 

With the Mets having done not much regarding enhancing the bullpen, one name that surfaced online this past week was Jakob Junis who quietly put together a pretty sensational 2024 after a good 2023.  The now 32 year old righthander's aggregate numbers make you roll your eyes but the last two years in a row he's been markedly better.  After a 3.87 ERA over 40 games for the Giants in 2023, combined for Cincinnati and Milwaukee he went 4-0 with a 2.69 ERA.  

What is really eye popping over his career is how stingy he is with walks.  In the 24 games during his injury shortened (early part of the year) 2024 the 1.1 walks per 9 IP is almost unbelievable.  However, even during the years when he was getting hit harder he only once in his long career reached the 3.0 plateau in walks in 2019.  It's coming into 2025 and the control trend is getting better and better (as are the WHIP numbers).  He's not blowing people away with strikeouts and it seems that as his 9 inning K average drops to the 6's, his ability to keep people from scoring improves.  He earned $4 million last year and the Brewers paid him a $3 million buyout rather than be on the hook for $8 million.  So if he already has $3 million in his pocket would a $5 million offer appeal to him to bring him back to that now nixed 2025 contract level?

There has been nothing much on the starting pitching front as rotation is what it is with Roki Sasaki not showing as much interest in the Mets as an employer as he is with other teams.