2009 Mets Outlook - SP

2009 Outlook - Right Field

Current Mets: Johan Santana, Pedro Martinez, John Maine, Mike Pelfrey, Oliver Perez

Top Mets Prospect: Jonathan Niese


Projected Starters:

Mets: Johan Santana
John Maine
Mike Pelfrey
New Free Agent/Oliver Perez
Jon Niese

I’m going to assume that the Mets either resign Oliver Perez or open the bank and go get someone else to hold the fort down for a few more years before ‘the kids’ come along. I’m also going to assume that the Pedro days are over, which is sad. He’s a great ambassador for the Mets, especially in poor neighborhoods in Latin America. My last assumption is than Jon Niese will be afforded the priviledge to get his ass handed to him in the SP5 position, sort of the growing up process that now super-pitcher Mike Pelfrey had to go through. Is it a great rotation. Well, one, it depends on the free agent, but if it’s either Perez or an equivalent talent, it doesn’t suck.

Now it starts to get fun.

Simply put, there are far too many starting pitchers in the Mets organization that are turning in excellent seasons. The drafting process in the past few years, as well as the choices of which Latin kid to sign, is paying off in spades, and will become quite evident in the next few years.
For the sake of simplification, I’m simply going to grade out the guys that had a good enough season to either earn themselves an invite back to the same level they were at last year, or a bump up to the next level.



New Orleans:

Bobby Parnell (2-2 at AAA, 10-6 at AA)
Adam Bostick (2-2 at AAA before IR)
Brandon Knight (5-1, 2.28 at AAA)
Claudio Vargas (5-2 at AAA)
Jason Vargas (IR entire 2008 season)
Jose Sanchez (13-7 at AA)
Sal Aguilar (10-3 at AA)

I left a lot of old men walking off this list, but you can’t not recognize what Parnell, Aguilar and Sanchez did last year in AA, you have to give J-Vargas and Bostick a chance to come back from the IR and justify their trade, Knight represented your team at the Olympics, and you need one seasoned vet like Claudio to hang around.

First of many problems coming up: This is 7 pitchers for a 5 man rotation.

So, send 2 down, right. Well, that won’t work either because there are 5 studs ready to pitch everyday in B-Town:


B-Mets:

Tobi Stoner (4-6 at AA, 2.60 at AA)
Michael Antonini (3.74 at AAA)
Jake Ruckle (back from IR)
Dillon Gee (2-0, 1.33 at AA, 3.25 at AA)
Dylan Owen (1-1 at AA, 12-6 at A+)

There’s no dead wood here. Only Ruckle is suspect to scrutiny due to his season-ending injury, but his ceiling may be higher than the other 4.

So far… 12 great successful starters for 2 teams, 10 slots.



Lucy:

Nick Waechter (3.70 at A+)
Scott Moviel (0.00 at A+)
Elvin Ramirez (3.67 at A)
Angel Calero (2.57 at A)
Brant Rustich (3.62 at A)


Again, this looks set. All 5 of these guys proved themselves in Savannah and were bumped up near the end of the season. This is your April 2009 Lucy rotation.

New math:… 3 teams… 15 SP slots… 17 pitchers.

Now… it gets really hairy…



Gnats:

Mark Cahoon (3.82 at A)
Eric Beaulac (3.55 at A, 1.89 at K-Port)
Phillips Orta (2.70 at A)
Michael Olmstead (3.86 at A, 1.83 at K-Port)
Brad Holt (5-3, 1.87 with Clones)
Scott Shaw (6-3, 2.80 with Clones)
Pedro P. Martinez (3-2, 3.63 with Clones)
Chris Schwinden (4-1, 2.01)
Jennry Mejia (0.60 at GCL)



4 teams… 20 slots… 26 top starters…. And there’s around 10 other guys that are still on some rosters…



Brooklyn:

John Holdzkom (3-1, 3.66 at K-Port)
Robert Carson (1.76 at K-Port, 1.57 at GCL)
Jeurys Familia (2.79 at GCL)


K-Port:

Julio Bello (2.50 at GCL)
Kyle Allen (2.12 at GCL)

GCL:

Angel Cuan - 3.13 in VSL
Jhonathan Torres – 3.39 in VSL
Ismael Mendez - 6-1, 1.07 in DSL
Gonzalez Germen – 5-2, 1.34 in DSL


Summary:

This is a great problem. The Mets do not have to concentrate on pitching in the next draft and can go out and try and find themselves some stuff for OF, C, and 1B.