A lot has been made of the New York Mets' outfield deficiencies heading into the 2013 season. No major additions were made and there is no help coming up from the minors. Personally, I could not care less as I've had my eye on 2014 as the year of expectations. For this year, I'd like to see some of the players the team has showcase their skills to see exactly what value they have. I'd like to see Lucas Duda hit well so he can be shopped as a potential 1B/DH next offseason. I'd like to see Jordanny Valdespin display the speed and power combo he's capable of to also make him part of a trade package. For Nieuwehuis, den Dekker, Cowgill, and Lagares I'd like to see if they have what it takes to sit the bench and backup for the Next Mets - I'm guessing on Nieuwenhuis and Lagares.
No, the outfield will be pieced together over the next year. The Mets have to fill all three OF positions, 2 corner spots and the all-important CF. As it stands, the Mets lineup next year will likely begin with:
1.
2.
3. 3B Wright
4.
5. 1B Davis
6. Ca d'Arnaud
7.
8. SS Tejada
The clean-up hitter will likely be RH as I can't see the team bat two LH hitters together in the middle of the lineup. As CF and 2B rarely have the power needed to hit cleanup, we can deduce that the #4 hitter will likely be a RH corner OF. In that case, the #3 (Wright) and #4 hitters will be RH, meaning that the #2 spot will be a LH hitter. Since corner OF spots are usually the premiere offensive spots on teams, I'm going to assume also that the #2 hitter will be a LH corner OF. So, we can assume that for balancing out the lineup, the Mets will add a LH corner OF and a RH corner OF. In this post, I'll focus on the LH corner OF I think the Mets will look to acquire.
We can eliminate prospects at this point. The best ones are either too far away from making an impact or will cost the Mets too much in trade. I took a look at the best LH OF from 2011-12, and the best players who could be available are Nick Markakis, Alex Gordon, Jason Kubel, Shin-Soo Choo, and Andre Ethier.
Kubel and Choo will be free agents after the 2013 season. Of the two, I think Choo is the superior player and would fit in very nicely in the #2 spot in the Mets lineup. Kubel will be asking for too much money and I don't see the Mets signing him. I never believed the Mets ever had any interest in trading for him this offseason, they won't be signing him next offseason.
Of the tradable options, Nick Markakis, Andre Ethier, and Alex Gordon appear to be the most attractive. All three players play solid OF defense and would make very impressive #2 hitters in fron of David Wright, Ike Davis, and whomever else is acquired hit hit cleanup. Of the 3, I think Ethier is the most likely to be traded due to the length of his contract. However, it is that very contract that makes him the least likely for the Mets to pursue. I could see them picking him up if the Dodgers look at an Ethier trade as a salary dump, however I don't see a deal materializing if any prospects of consequence are demanded of the Mets. Markakis is signed through 2015 and would also fit well into the Mets lineup as well as play a solid RF. There have been rumblings over the years that the Orioles might move him, however he is their 'face of the franchise' and would cost a lot in return. I'd love to have him on the Mets, I just don't see it happening. The last option, Alex Gordon, is the best and most likely. He's signed through 2016 and at less per year than Markakis. The Royals deemed him untouchable this offseason, but we know that there is not such thing in MLB personnel moves. I found it very interesting that the Alderson FO came out to the press this winter that there was no way that they would trade Jon Niese for Alex Gordon. This tells me that there is interest in Gordon on the Mets' part. I believe that that interest will not dissipate over the coming year. I also think that the Royals will be in a position to trade Gordon next winter. They have gone all-in on this year; when that fails I believe they'll have a new front office and be willing to deal. The Mets could part with some of their excess pitching to bring Gordon to Citifield.
In trying to project next year's outfield a year out, it looks like the Mets 2 best options for a LH corner OF are Shin-Soo Choo through free agency and Alex Gordon through trade. My hope is that it's Gordon, shifting the lineup to:
1.
2. LF Gordon
3. 3B Wright
4.
5. 1B Davis
6. Ca d'Arnaud
7.
8. SS Tejada
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10 comments:
While i agree that no one is truly... "untouchable" the Royals did trade away their prized OF prospect this winter which makes Alex Gordon very tough to trade.
As for Choo, he'll hit the free agent market at age 31, so if he's willing to accept a 3 yr deal with a vesting 4th year option then I'm totally on board as a fan.
Personally I have a feeling that LF will stay internal with bigger dollars being dropped in CF (Jacoby Ellsbury??) and RF (Hunter Pence??)
I think how Nimmo does this year might affect the approach to building the outfield.
Hypothetically, if Nimmo has a solid year and ends up in PSL tearing it up, it is not that farfetched that he starts 2014 in AA and ends up in AAA. Then after his Super 2 status has passed, he could potentially be up in Queens after June 2015. Of course, this is all hypothetical but I think this season is huge for Nimmo and will determine the course of action in the future.
I am still holding out hope for den Dekker told hold the CF fort. If so, I love the idea of trading for Alex Gordon for some of our pitching prospects.
Of course, we can speculate all day long, but I think this season goes a long way to determine how the cards play out.
I like Choo on a three year deal until Nimmo is ready. With Gordon, I think KCis going to fall short and they'll realize trading Myers was a mistake, going back to their old direction of trading one piece for many young ones.
I think the internal foundation is essentially set at this point with other additions going forward being established major league hitters.
If the Mets can spend more, I wouldn't be opposed to
CF Ellsbury
SS Tejada
3B Wright
1B Davis
RF Pence
Ca d'Arnaud
LF Nieuwenhuis
2B ----- ?
I just worry about Ellsbury's injury history and Pence wanted to get paid like a superstar when he's just a quality additional piece.
Michael I think 2B is either gonna be filled by Murphy or Flores. As for your free agent signings, I think the Mets will have the funds available. But, I would prefer CF as Gomez and RF as Choo. Then You can either put Den Decker in LF (and have what is probably the best defensive outfield in the league), or use Nieuwenhuis or whoever proves themselves this year.
I certainly hope the Mets upgrade from Murphy at 2B and I think Flores will be traded at some point for another team's OF.
A return home for Gomez? It's not my first choice but I don't think I'd hate it.
BTW, this was just a post for a LH corner OF. The next 2 days will bring a CF evaluation and a RH corner OF. I thought writing one OF piece would prove to be too lengthy. Thanks for the feedback fellas.
Couple things...
In todays market, good luck getting any above average outfielder to sign a three year deal. If any of these guys have a good or great season, they'll be over paid. That's the market, especially with the new tv money kicking in next year.
Also, if us fans are satisfied with passing on every player because of their price tag, then we must be will to accept fourth place finishes every year. Look, holding out at this point to get a good deal was worth it. The Mets still have a ton of cash tied into aging, mediocre players. Next season that changes and like every other team that's looking to compete, they will have to overpay in a few spots that their farm can't fill.
And lastly, I'd love to see Nimmo start in Lucy, but I think there's a 75% chance he's going to Savanah. His development at this point shouldn't hinder any moves the Mets will need to make next off season. This isn't a guy who's a couple months away from joining the club in 2014. This is an extremely raw kid that needs crucial time to develop at a pace his performance dictates. You can't even project him any earlier then September 2015, and that's probably pushing it.
I've been game for what Sandy has done until now, but even he said that the Mets must be prepared to operate within the marketplace. Fred said they have the cash. After this season, it'll finally be put up or shut up time.
Charles, I think Choo could be signed for a shorter deal due to his age. He'll turn 32 in the first year of his new deal. Age 30 seems to be that line that blurs contract length for some players.
Does anyone think that, if Cleveland falls out of contention in the early going, Michael Bourn could wind up in a Mets uniform come July? It's not the wildest thing to happen.
If we're limiting ourselves to a discussion of LH corner OFs here, I think the lefty will come from within. With the Captain, Spin, Lunging Lucas, and double Dekker as possibilities, one will emerge to fill the spot. I like Gordon a lot, but I just don't think KC is going to move him. And I think Sandy is going to be going after bigger Fish next Fall, or possibly even in July.
Nice speculation.
But perhaps this year's outfield has some answers aswell. You never know what will happen to players when they play on a regular basis (Cowgill, Valdespin, Duda, Baxter and Nieuwenhuis are all young and never given a real chance)
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