Nick Punto is going to be paid $2.75 million dollars to play
in Oakland next season. That’s all you really need to see to understand what
direction this offseason is headed. There appears to be a sea change taking
place in MLB this offseason. A new lucrative television deal has put some extra
spending money in owner’s pockets and in the early going this offseason it
appears most MLB teams are not afraid to spend it.
Some names already signed as we head into late November:
LaTroy Hawkins, Marlon Byrd, Josh Johnson, David Murphy, Tim Hudson, and Skip
Schumaker are some of the names to join Mr. Punto in enjoying the windfall
taking place this winter.
Is it wise to invest $2.25 million in a 40 year-old reliever
to close in the thin air of Colorado? Or
for a team to invest $16 million over two years in a 36 year-old OF they gave
up on nine years earlier as the Phillies have done with Marlon Byrd.
David Murphy is about to ink a deal for $12 million with
Cleveland and Josh Johnson for $8 million with the Pads. It’s not a question as
to rather these players are worth this money. The market says they are, and
that’s all that matters. This turn of events does not appear to bode well for
the fiscally conservative Mets
Sandy Alderson has stated they will spend more than last
season’s $87 million payroll. Although around $30 million has been rumored, the
exact amount is anyone’s guess, and will ultimately be determined by how the FA
market as well as trade market works out.
The Mets need to make an impact move, either a FA signing or
trade. The fan base is disillusioned and many in the game appear skeptical of
the Mets ability to be successful. Also, it’s New York, and its folly to think
that you can run your team like it’s the Kansas City Royals or Tampa Bay Rays.
The problem is, and I believe it will continue for the next
several years, FA classes are shallow when it comes to big-name players because
most teams are now locking up their young talent with long-term deals early in
their career such as Tulo and Evan Longoria. Also, players such as Matt Cain
re-sign before they can hit the free agent market.
MLB’s future appears to be on the mound, with several young
and upcoming arms hurling in the bigs already like Zack Wheeler, Jose Ferandez,
Garrett Cole or in the pipeline-our own Thor and Mark Appel come to mind. It’s
not impossible to think that by 2017 every team with trotting out three-four
starters with SP1-SP2 stuff or potential. It’s all part of the homegrown
approach that teams are taking now.
It’s wise they do because I believe the “golden era” of Free
Agency is over in MLB. There will be less A level talent becoming FA’s and more
of the B and C+ level talent available. There will be a lot of bloated and bad
contracts signed. Inflated worth for players simply because they are on the
open market, and Team A need to fill that vacancy, overpaying for said player.
It’s happened in the past, but the frequency of bad deals will increase.
The days of a mediocre team re-loading in the offseason with
a few prime FA’s and making a run at the pennant is over. Please don’t mention
how the Red Sox went from worst to first, using a strategy of signing B-level
FA’s and skyrocketing from the cellar. 90, 89, 95…those are the wins the Sox
had before falling off the cliff in 2012. This wasn’t a bad team making
fiscally responsible moves to drastically improve. This was a team full of stars
like Pedroia, Ortiz, Lester, Buchholz, and Ellsbury that just needed a few more
pieces. The foundation was in place. The Red Sox method only works if you
already have a boatload of talent on-hand. The Mets, for example, should not
follow the Boston example and expect dramatic improvement the next season. The
team does not have the level of talent the Sox did entering the 2013 season.
The danger the Mets’ face is simple—overpaying for a Drew, Peralta,
Cruz or Granderson just to save face with an unsatisfied fanbase or making a
trade for someone like Andre Ethier who stands a great chance of being a colossal
bust. It also doesn’t make sense for them to pursue a 32-year old gimpy kneed
1B like Corey Hart because you’ve traded a flawed, yet talented one entering his
year 27 season. An age when traditionally many power hitters start to put it
together and go on a nice run of a few or several season’s of 25+ HR’s.
.286-4-15 .449/.505/.954
.290-3-8 .468/.522/.990
Those are Ike Davis’ second half and August slash lines,
respectively. I’m not saying Davis is the ideal solution, but I’d rather pay
him in his first arbitration year instead of signing a player 5 years older
coming up major knee surgery. Davis
cannot hit lefties, but keeping him as part of a lefty/righty hitting platoon
could reap some power hitting benefits. I wouldn’t trade him just to be rid of
him.
It’s a long offseason but these are some random thoughts as
the Hot Stove action heats up.
1 comment:
I understand what you are saying D Whit. It is well thought out and perfectly reasonable.
however,
given exactly what you mention, the dilution of free agent quality (currently and in the future) there are a couple of points that have to be made.
1st of all, the Met system does not have a very good track record of developing and producing the high quality prospects necessary for a home grown team.
It seems like every year there are a couple of "young players" that have come up from our farm system that we keep waiting for them to show us "what they can really do".
We seem to STILL be waiting.
2nd, The Mets continue to show an unwillingness to mine alternative avenues to acquire talent.
Foreign player after foreign player has signed with other teams, while the Mets have demonstrated no interest at all.
Look at the Cubs the past two years. They have not spent much on the free agent market, but, they were not afraid to go over their Dollar Limit in when signing young latin players.
They also spent money on players like Solar. All of this was done to improve the talent of their minor league system.
3rd for exactly the reason you mention, decreasing quality free agent pool, THIS might be the last year that quality may be available through free agency. Even if the quality free agent might have to be over payed.
I don't have the answers, but then again, I am not being payed to have them.
It is disturbing to watch the Met decision makers state a purpose: "build home grown talent" and yet not make every effor to utilize every tool and avenue to find and develop a young talented minor league system base.
It is disturbing to be told the Met decision makers are "going to spend $$$" and yet have most of the quality players that cost money be considered too expensive.
It is disturbing to hear the Met decision makers state that they may have to "be creative" and taking on bigger contracts in trades, and then hear that the discounted cost for that high priced trade target is too much in dollars or prospects.
It has been disheartening the last few years constantly hearing words that do not seem to match the actions that accompany them.
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