It was recently reported that the Mets have contacted SS Rafael Furcal and that he may be a fall-back option if the team is unable to acquire Stephen Drew or Jhonny Peralta. Although this has been met by head shaking and groans from most Mets fans, if you dig a little deeper, having Furcal on the 2014 Mets might not be such a bad thing after all.
A couple of months ago I brought Furcal in a War Room sessions and that he was someone the Mets should look at as one of their SS possibilities heading into 2014. At first glance, the 36-year-old Furcal seems long in the tooth to man one of the two keystone positions on the MLB diamond. However, if journey players like Jamey Carroll can post career-year numbers at 36, it’s not too much of a stretch to think that a talented player like Furcal couldn’t do the same. It’s also not a stretch historically to be an effective SS over 35, as this article which has to do with Derek Jeter, but highlights best season performances by SS’s over 36 years of age, shows:
Additionally, this from Baseball Prospectus on aged players at the SS position:
“This group has an inherent selection bias. A shortstop only lasts into his late 30s because his defense was so good to begin with, or perceived to be so good, that the teams felt that they were still worth playing despite declining powers. Thus in the first group, the 37-year-olds, you will find that of 15 players, seven are Hall of Famers, two more (Dave Concepcion and Bad Bill Dahlen) are frequently mentioned as belonging in the Hall of Fame, and another (Omar Vizquel) may one day get there on the strength of his defense.”
While Furcal, a strong defensive SS, is not quite in the same league with the glove, let’s use Omar Vizquel as the best comparison to what we could expect from Furcal in his age 36 season. Although he played in only 64 games in 2002, Vizquel bounced back to play 148 and 152 games in the following seasons. He batted .291 in 2004 with 19 SBs, and a more than respectable .741OPS. The .291 was his highest BA since 1999. Vizquel’s speed didn’t diminish either as he swiped 24 bags each in the 2005 and 2006 seasons.
On the defensive side of his game, Vizquel was 3rd in the AL with a .982 fielding % in 2004. As for the long-in –the-tooth crosstown SS, Jeter’s age 36 season in 2010, although a huge across-the board decline from 2009, still saw him put up more than respectable numbers for the position. Furcal’s no Jeter, but he has been a member of the elite class of SS for several seasons. His two seasons in St. Louis saw a decline at the plate but defensively he was still 3rd in range factor both seasons and 5th in the NL at the position in 2012. It’s quite possible that with a year off spent rehabbing from TJS will find him rejuvenated and stronger as a result of his training to return to the field.
As for Furcal’s fragility, he played in less than 100 games in 2010-2011, well Drew is no stranger to the DL himself playing only 79 and 86 games respectively in 2011 and 2012. His offense was anemic each of those two seasons as well before rebounding in 2013.
I’m going to post some numbers, we’ll call them player A and player B:
Player A:
.264-5-49 12 SBs .671
Player B:
.222-7-32 .687
Now granted, we’re only looking at a few batting statistics here, and neither player’s stats fly off the page but even so, Player A would seem to be a more effective hitter, with less power and more speed than Player B. Wouldn’t you agree?
If you say yes, than you’ve chosen Furcal over Stephen Drew because Player B was Drew and his numbers away from Fenway Park. Citi Field plays much larger than Fenway, so it must be a concern as to how much of Drew’s numbers were inflated by playing half his games at Fenway where he posted a line of .283-6-35 with an .859 OPS. The Mets can ill-afford to sink $10-$12 million into a potential offensive black hole at SS.
Furcal could be had at a fraction of that price and provide veteran leadership for a team which could use more players with post-season experience on their roster. He also could serve as a tutor for Tejada, who a few years ago the Mets thought highly enough of that they gave his the SS after Reyes left. Another thing to consider is a fairly strong 2015 SS Free Agent crop which could include Hanley Ramirez, Asdrubal Cabrera, JJ Hardy and more.
When it comes to Stephen Drew, the Mets should tread lightly and perhaps spend their offseason dollars elsewhere. I like the idea of Furcal at SS, for the reasons I highlighted above. Next week I’ll talk about Furcal, his TJS and Jhonny Peralta.
5 comments:
I've got some thoughts on Furcal in tomorrow's morning report.
I could deal with the fact that Furcal is our shortstop for 1 yr as long as the other holes are filled, that being 2 new corner outfielders and a new 1st basemen, or a 2nd basemen
I would suggest that the Mets should really look into Jed Lowrie, Oakland's shortstop.
Nothing wrong with the argument for Furcal as long as the contract is no more than one year with an option or perhaps two years. Furcal is the far better offensive player than Drew, although Peralta is likely an even better offensive option. And don't forget that Furcal is a switch-hitter who can bat lead-off, 2 or 8 in the order. It certainly seems that the Mets best play is to sign Furcal, move Young to 2B, move Murphy to 1B and bring in two corner outfielders with power via trade and/or free agency. Such a scenario would create about 150+ stolen bases among the Mets infielders, with speed to come from Lagares and others, and a manager who is not afraid to use speed. There would also be considerable range factor for the entire infield. Most importantly, the price should be right (with no loss of draft picks), and there is some SS depth in the system for 2016 and beyond.
Bob is right.Lowrie has 2 winters of Arbi left, so he's under team control at reasonable cost, then can be extended if he works out. He should be available at reasonable cost in talent, and that frees up $$$ to be used elsewhere.
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