I want to review the current free
agent activity based on what I’m watching develop with signings like the one
involving pitcher Latroy Hawkins.
We’ve talked about this before.
Players in the twilight of their careers sign their last contract with teams
that either will give them the opportunity to showcase their game as they
desire or give them better odds at getting to a World Series game they probably
haven’t been to in a while or never have gotten there. In addition, the usual
tie-breaker is the money being offered.
Never fault a player or his agent
where they eventually sign their name. It is always the team that agrees to the
money being paid. There would never be a discussion regarding ‘player X’ being
paid too much or getting too many years on a deal if the team didn’t say ‘yes’.
Let’s look at the Colorado Rockies
fan base vs. the Mets.
The United States Office of
Management and Budget has delineated the Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO
Metropolitan Statistical Area consisting of ten Colorado counties: the City and
County of Denver, Arapahoe County, Jefferson County, Adams County, Douglas County,
the City and County of Broomfield, Elbert County, Park County, Clear Creek
County, and Gilpin County.[1] The United States Census Bureau estimates that
the population was 2,645,209 as of July 1, 2012.
The Rockies are ranked 10th in baseball in home attendance at an
average of 34,491 per game.[i]
Lastly, Cott Baseball estimates that the 2013 Rockies spent $ 73,949,071[ii]
to achieve what resulted in a 5th place finish in the NL West, at
74-88.[iii]
The New York Metropolitan area
includes the most populous city in the United States (New York City); counties
comprising Long Island and the Mid- and Lower Hudson Valley in the state of New
York; the six largest cities in New Jersey (Newark, Jersey City, Paterson,
Elizabeth, Trenton, and Edison) and their vicinities; six of the seven largest
cities in Connecticut (Bridgeport, New Haven, Stamford, Waterbury, Norwalk, and
Danbury) and their vicinities; and five counties in Northeastern Pennsylvania,
including the state's third-largest city of Allentown. As per the 2012 United
States Census Bureau estimates, the New York metropolitan area remains by a
significant margin the most populous in the United States, by both the
Metropolitan Statistical Area definition (19.8 million)
as well as by the Combined Statistical Area definition (23.4 million)[iv]The
Mets are ranked 21st at an average of 26,695
per game. The Mets spent $ 93,684,590[v]to
achieve finishing third in the NL East at the identical record of 74-88.[vi]
It is not the Rockies fault that the
Mets operation platform can only attract around 0.001% of the population base
to one of their home games. Colorado attracts double that, at 0.013%.
But check out the salary vs. the
population base… Colorado: $27.96 per player… Mets: $4.00 per player.
Yeah, I know we need to throw in the
Yankee factor, but the Mets are still way below operating their team based on
the potential of the population base in the area.
Sandy Alderson and the Wilpons seem to have some magical number regarding how much to
operate this team salary wise. It has gone down from $142mil in 2011 to $94 in
2012 and $93 and change in 2013 and, though you keep reading how they have ’30-35
million’ to spend this off season, the fact is the total payroll will go down
again to around $90mil.
The whole free agent process doesn’t
currently favor the Mets. The team no longer is thought of as a playoff
contender, their top pitcher that was returning a little respect (and a whole
lot of fans) to the organization is now out for the year, and their owner and
his operating plan closely resembles that boss on ‘The Simpsons’.
You also can’t fault the Hawkins of
the world. They were offered more money with a multiple year deal, something
the Mets determined wasn’t worth matching… and, I’m only assuming they had the
opportunity to match the deal. In today’s world and under the limited
perception of this team that I have outlined earlier in this post, they
probably didn’t.
No, yesterday was a bad day for the
Mets and Alderson. They signed no one and lost a target player. I strongly
suggest they literally abandon this free agent process and target themselves on
obtaining two key stars in this game… oh, let’s use Alex
Gordon and Matt Kemp as examples (they’re
just examples, folks). You don’t have to negotiate a thing and you don’t need
to convince either the player or his agent to join your team. All you have to
do is come up with the right combination of players to close the deal.
Considering the limits of your protected
player list (Wright, Harvey, Wheeler, Syndergaard, d’Arnaud), you could get
this done and walk away with 50% of your future every day lineup and 75% of
your 2015 rotation.
That’s a good start in a bad year.
5 comments:
Not to give up too much in advance of tomorrow's column about Mr. Alderson, but how can you publicly declare ANYONE on your team off-limits? The Angels would move Mike Trout if the deal was deemed favorable to them. By making such a stupid declaration you hurt your negotiating position and you simultaneously demean the values of anyone not in your "untouchable" category.
I thought he was allegedly the smartest guy in the room.
(did you just call me stupid? :)
Alderson is M. Donald Grant.
We had and liked Hawkins. The bullpen needed to be upgraded, which is a constant thing with all bullpens. Most importantly, Bobby Parnell remains a question mark. We don't know about his health. Remember, this was initially explained as a bad night's sleep. The pillow was too hard or too soft or something like that. Now the Mets might need a guy.
How much is that going to cost?
Alderson and the Super Friends need to start functioning in the real world, where TV revenues are going through the roof and prices are "scary."
James, you can't set the limits of the market. The market does that. All you can do is either accept the results of your negotiations or not.
The Mets sticking point seems to be the amount of years on these contracts. That's a shame. I would love to not go through this every year.
Its still November folks....Nobody truly noteworthy has signed yet.
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