Nolan Arenado, 8 time Gold Glover at 3B for the Rockies, is available if the Mets want him enough, or so it seems.
Next year, to be clear, he will be 30 years old.
Todd Frazier, recently of the Mets, hammered 40 HRs in his best season at age 30, slid to 27 (in 90 less PAs, to be fair) the following year, and has been far less than his age 30 season thereafter.
Not to try to make the two 3B a great comparison. After all, Arenado’s Runs Above Average (RAA) in his career are a superlative 249 in 4,558 PAs, while Frazier has a mere 88 RAA in 4,909 PAs, a drastic difference.
I am just a bit concerned how Nolan would age. However, in 2019, he had his best RAA, 49. By comparison, Michael Conforto in 2,501 PAs has just 73 RAA. Pete Alonso? Just 28 RAA in 932 PAs. Jeff McNeil? On an Arenado pace at 64 RAA over 1,024 PAs.
Todd declined after 30. David Wright did, too. But Justin Turner did not.
None had Arenado’s Bitcoin Glove, though.
Yes, Arenado’s road splits are not good. Nor has he hit well in NL East parks, which could be a true concern. But if the Mets feel he can surpass his road splits once he leaves Colorado, like DJ Lemahieu did, I would do the right value trade to get him. Perhaps Cano, and JD Davis and/or Rosario.
Why would that be enough? Because Colorado wants salary relief, and there would be few other suitors outside his division.
If he even hit .250/20/80 on average over those 6 years, his super glove would make him a must-have.
Speed has never been part of Arenado's game, so the worry of a beaten up body from steal attempts, which may have impacted David Wright to some degree, is minimized.
We'd of course have to consider if that would block Bret Baty at 3B. He is MLB's # 88 prospect and might be ready for OD 2023. But he'll never be near the defender that Arenado is, and ranking at # 88 is not an overwhelming endorsement of future greatness, but a sign of at least average potential.
The Mets could stand pat at 3B, with in-house talent, and wait for Baty to develop and arrive. Or be bold and look to win NOW.
What say you?
12 comments:
Jared Parker is here and he doesn’t have our “name” mentality. He looks at things analytically and that mean “forget it”. I’m afraid Alderson even fell prey to that thinking being in New York so many years, but Parker won’t fall for that. Besides, defense declines after 30.
I’ll take him if they throw in John Gray and I’ll give them Carpio and Zamora. That’s it. His contract in $33 a year until age 36. Tell them BVW isn’t here any more. They want the Mets... the clowns.
Gus and Tom,
Great points on his age Tom and what the Mets would be signing up for over the next 8 years.
I saw one estimate that adding Arenado would put the Mets just about $30M under the cap. That would mean it would be very unlikely they would be able to add Springer or Bauer and the needed depth.
The only way I would even consider this deal is if the Rockies get very creative and NO PROSPECTS are going back to Colorado.
Cano has been discussed as a possible chip - very unlikely unless Colorado throws some money his way (also doubtful but not impossible).
Also, I would only offer Major League players on the Mets where there might be a surplus - JD Davis becomes less needed with Arenado on board. Maybe Rosario - Maybe either Don Smith or Pete Alonso. However, in return for one of these players, I would ask the Rockies to pay 1/2 - 2/3 of Arenado's salary. Again very unlikely. Otherwise, due to the money alone, this is not a good fit.
In this scenario we will see just how good a poker plater Steve Cohen really is.
Just as they expressed some hesitation for pursuing Francisco Lindor due to his free agency after the 2021 season, the opt out clause in Arenado's contract makes him a bit of a risk (though much less so due to his already inflated contract numbers). He would be a nice addition, for sure, but I think he's overpaid. You don't see people breaking the bank after the allegedly unprofitable 2020 season to pay big money for top free agents. Consequently he's lucky to get what he will and the Rockies should indeed buy down on the average annual value if they want someone to pick up the rest. It's a salary dump just like the Mets did when they sent several folks packing at the end of one of their recent seasons. You don't get much back in those deals simply because you are getting salary relief.
That all being said, Arenado is a top caliber player who should be productive for about 2-3 more years. After that it starts to get sketchy. There are other top notch options like Kris Bryant who could be worth pursuing as well if you are hell bent on bringing in an outsider to take over at 3B. I know many would like to see Robinson Cano traded away to get out from under his salary obligation, but why would a team do that knowing they are getting the tail end of his chemically induced but productive career? Also, I don't know if trading someone on suspension is even permissible.
I wouldn’t like any part of Arenado (or Kris Bryant) here even if it gets rid of Cano’s contract.
1st of all Cano’s suspension may lead into a little bit of next years season as well because they are talking about a shortened season again this year. So that will save Steve a bit of money. Also he may just work out a Bobby Bonilla type of deal with him right before he comes back and just pay him a smaller percentage over 10 years (with interest) but I believe it won’t count towards the salary cap all at once? Which will help us out a bit.
I also just don’t trust his number offensively out of Coors Field. Yes DJ lamaheu succeeded but that’s usually not the norm. I would prefer to spend $30 million on one of next years free agent SS that are a bit younger than Arenado.
Also I like JD Davis quite a bit. Yes his defense isn’t the greatest but his bat is legit. Just put in a defensive replacement in later innings in close games and that should get the job done.
Lastly Maurcio, Baty or Vientos may be ready to take over in a couple of years at the hot corner. So don’t clog up our young cheap prospects coming up.
Gentlemen, it seems unanimous - NO on Arenado - unless (as John put it) they were willing to eat a whole lot more than just the Cano offset.
I think waiting for one (or more) of the 3 rooks (Baty, Vientos, Mauricio) to step in makes sense - I think Mauricio is ranked # 57 overall, not bad for his age.
Of course, Jose Peroza is a long-odds dark horse in that future 3B discussion, but he won't climb the ranks unless he pounds the rock in 2021.
And another infielder I did not mention in the article that went into steep decline after age 31 was Jose Reyes. Over 30 is a risky lane to drive in in baseball.
I will post the same comment here that I posted earlier on the Rising Apple site (and got a thumbs down on without further comment):
(The premise of the article over there was that both Davis and Nimmo would be included in a trade to the Rockies.)
This whole discussion seems pretty weak without talking about the other dominoes that would fall with it.
If Arenado, then no Springer? No Bauer? There has to be some discussion of total dollars.
If Nimmo goes, does Smith become the everyday left fielder? Trading Nimmo and Davis really weakens the bench - there is a lot of discussion about team depth, not just 1-26, but 1-40. Without both Nimmo and Davis, they are pretty thin after 1-9.
I think a better solution is to explore a Lindor trade for his last year, knowing that Cleveland is between a rock and a hard place with him so it won't cost all that much (no prospects 1 thru 10), and platoon Gimenez and Davis at 3rd. Gimenez, being the strong side platoon (plays more) should improve the defense there, and Lindor is the best shortstop there is. Figure out 2022 later on once Cano's situation is known and once they know if Gimenez is a good (or even viable) major league.
hitter.
There are a ton of other threads that go with this, but that will be later.
Second suspension for cano. Cohen should look into the legalities of voiding his contract
1969, your point about the dominoes falling if there’s an Aronado trade is accurate. Your point about Davis and Gimemez in a platoon at 3B is not happening. Rosario had a chance, he was about a C+ player. Now Gimemez gets his shot.
Tom, my suggestion of Gimenez moving to 3B is dependent on a deal for Lindor. I agree that without that happening, Gimenez gets the shot at SS.
A deal for Lindor also has dominoes, the first is Gimenez. Perhaps he moves to 2B to become an elite keystone combo?
I prefer the Lindor thought over Arenado, only because of the flexibility in $$. Lindor is still going to be a free agent after 2021. Arenado still has a couple hundred million dollars due. A one year rental (trial?) is the Cano money saved. If they don't sign him, and want to move Gimenez, fine, otherwise there could be/probably will be some other fine shortstops on the market at that time.
Obviously Lindor has to come on the Mets terms, i.e. cheap, rather spare parts. Cleveland is pretty stuck at this point and cannot ask much.
Good points, R69...and Lindor is younger than Arenado, which helpeth much.
Post a Comment