Tim Britton in The Athletic has a thoughtful piece up on some possible ways the New York Mets might approach the trade deadline at the end of this month. Of course, the Cubs' Kris Bryant is right up at the top. The trade rumors that persisted throughout the winter will only continue to build over the next two weeks. The Cubs are definitely sellers now, and Bryant is a free agent after the season. Jed Hoyer would be stupid not to try to obtain value for Bryant.
The Mets considered the asking price for Bryant last winter way beyond where they were willing to go for a 1-year rental. Well, the rental is down to two months plus whatever sort of playoff run the Mets can put together, provided they get there. Their Division lead currently sits at 3-1/2 games over the Phillies, with both Wildcard teams likely coming out of the NL West this season. The San Diego Padres are currently sitting in that second Wildcard spot, with a 53-40 record. The Mets are 47-40.
The NL East is certainly there for the taking, but the Mets will need to play better more consistently, or they could still find themselves heading home in October rather than into a playoff series. Bryant is an obvious upgrade at third base and a proven bat for the lineup. It remains to be seen, however, what the Mets are willing to give up for him. According to Britton, the Cubs are likely to be asking for more in return for Kris Bryant than they were over the winter:
Bryant is in the midst of a terrific season, one basically in line with his career norms after an abysmal abbreviated 2020. He's played five different positions, including center field, while posting an .854 OPS, and the price tag for two months of Bryant is likely higher now than it was for six months of Bryant last winter.
The report back in the winter was that Chicago was holding out for a package built around Mets top prospect, C Francisco Alvarez. Meanwhile, Alvarez's stock has only risen during the ongoing minor league season. The Mets would be crazy to trade the 19-year-old for a rental. I have a hard time making up a deal in my head that would include Alvarez that I would be in favor of. It would have to bring back a really good young pitcher or position player with some years of control left.
The Mets have some excellent prospects in their system, with #1 pick Kumar Rocker reportedly close to coming to terms with the club and giving them one more. What they lack, however, is a depth of prospects. They need to be careful with how they handle the ones that they have. It's not that I believe that any of their prospects should be considered untouchable. But they're going to need a good number of prospects to develop into Mets if they hope to build something sustainable. Trading good prospects for rentals is probably not the best plan for the Mets until they manage to broaden out their system at some point in the future.
Later in his piece, Britton quotes acting GM Zack Scott:
"You need to be careful with rentals. We've got to remember that baseball is not the NBA. It's not one person has the opportunity to make as big of an impact. That's not to go down a slippery slope and say, well, why trade for any rental then if it's not going to make an impact? You don't want to go that far.
But the reality is the game is designed to limit the impact of a single player, whether that's a starting pitcher or hitter. So we have to be smart. It doesn’t mean I'm opposed to rentals. We’re going to talk to rentals because they're usually the most available players, and their cost in the industry is, most of the time, fairly reasonable because of that."
That seems to me a smart view with which to approach any potential deal this season. If the Mets are willing to deal any of the handful of top prospects they currently possess, it seems most likely that they would do it for a good starting pitcher with some control left. But Britton reports that the cost of that sort of acquisition is likely to be very high.
3 comments:
As I just wrote in response to Tom's column on pitching, find players who can help not only for the remainder of 2021 but into 2022 as well. Those players are worth trading to acquire. Think of Marcus Stroman.
Outstanding piece Mike, just awesome and very astute to the days’ debates concerning what moves the Mets should make. In the winter, Alderson said that they will spend money in order to keep prospects. Remember the “there are two currencies in baseball: prospect talent and money” line from his press conference when he took over the day Cohen’s pen hit the contract? Well, I expect him to keep that word, no matter what. Too, I don’t see anyone helping this team enough if Conforto, Smith, McNeil and Lindor (let’s see what the injury is) don’t start hitting.
Reese, one thing I worry about when thinking about 2022 is the upcoming negotiations for a new agreement. I could easily see a long strike/lockout situation that would negate at least some of that control.
Thanks, TexasGusCC. And agreed on the hitting. If they don't turn it around offensively, their only hope is that all of the other Division teams continue to play badly.
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