SAVAGE
VIEWS – Facing the Facts
September 23, 2021
Prior to the 2021 season, I projected the Mets to be a top
5 MLB team with only the Dodgers, Padres, Braves and White Sox ahead of
them. Obviously, the season has not gone
as expected.
As we all know, the downfall for our team occurred at the
All-Star break. Jacob deGrom was having
a season for the ages. He appeared to be
a lock for another Cy Young award and in the mix for MVP. His loss for the season exposed the fragility
of our beloved team.
Not only did we lose the best pitcher in baseball but we
were left with a collection of number four and number five starters. Some will argue that Marcus Stroman is a
worthy # two or at worst a # three. I
rank him a bit lower. My major concern
with Stroman is that on his best day he might give you six plus innings. Trouble is, he tends to have high pitch
counts and is fortunate to complete six quality innings. I think we all agree that Walker, Carrasco and
Megill are back of the rotation starters.
The rotation, minus deGrom, relies too heavy on a strong
bullpen. This season the bullpen has
been asked to provide at least three innings every game. This is not sustainable and we have seen the
results of an overworked pen.
Clearly a healthy deGrom reduces the stress on the rest of
the rotation and in turn the bullpen.
Had he stayed healthy, I am convinced we would be contending for the
division title in a compromised NL East.
And we would not be having a conversation about the future of Luis
Rojas.
The quickest path to success in 2022 is to shore up the
rotation. No one can forecast what to
expect from Noah Syndergaard. He has the potential to be a solid number two or
more in any rotation. In my view, every
attempt should be made to give him a year to prove himself worthy of a
long-term contract.
Another top of the rotation arm should be added either
through free agency or trade. My preference
would be a lefty such a Robbie Ray, John Means or Blake Snell. Adding such a quality piece would leave
Stroman out of the mix. Walker,
Carrasco and Megill would fill out the rest of the rotation very nicely.
Our current pen is still a strength although another lefty
is needed. Aaron Loup needs to be
brought back to complement Diaz, Lugo, May and Familia. Lucchesi and Drew Smith are options.
I believe Dom Smith and JD Davis would be better served on
another team. I suggest our greatest
need is a power hitting third baseman who bats right handed to fill the void
until Baty or Vientos is ready. This year
the Mets were vulnerable to left hand pitching.
If we do acquire someone to play third we have no need for Villar. I would rather not have him on my team next
year. He has proved himself to be a good
utility player but falls short as an everyday third baseman.
That’s it for now – my wife is calling.
Ray
16 comments:
Well said. Though I think Walker might prove to be more like his first half self now that he has had a year of getting some innings under his belt. Not surprising he went south 2nd half given how little he pitched last couple years. And dont think we fully know Megill upside - love his demeanor and would enjoy seeing him develop a bit before deciding what he can be.
Walker us an acceptable mid rotation starter. Te problem is that after deGrom nothing else is guaranteed.
Ray we absolutely need starter and offensive help. I like your pitching ideas.
Ginn might be ready late 2022, more likely 2023. Adam Oller is an intriguing dark horse candidate for a 2022 starters spot
Neither is deGrom after his injuries. I think we need to go after two free agent starters after some many starters starters came down with injuries. I did not think we had good starters down in AAA that we could bring up to fill in when someone got injured.
What are your feelings about Walker, Oller, Peterson, Yamamoto?
Don't give up on David Peterson
Part One. My advice.
Facing the facts. Here are a few of mine.
I had very high expectations for 2021. Liked what I saw. But the season ending reality here isn't what I was hoping for either. To me, it felt like another typical NY Mets season from recent past. Disappointments and injuries. Saw no uptick in 2021.
I concur with all your points on the rotation, very well made. Jake and Noah kind of do leave us with some doubt for 2022 in the re-injury department. This factor has got to be a concern going forward. The team cannot float sideways another season second half without a suitable lifejacket.
I would move Noah down to the three slot of the rotation actually, and like you said, acquire a new number two with credibility and health. Of course Jake stays on as the one, he's Jake. With a new solid two in-place, it changes everything for 2022. Losing Zach Wheeler was bad because he was that number two guy insurance here. We need that type of starter added, and a lefty might be nice.
On Stroman, I too don't re-sign him.
Just doesn't win ball games. Some say the fastball isn't a true outpitch for him, maybe it's the speed or it doesn't bite down enough. Who knows. But then if so, why couldn't he have come up with a more definite out-pitch and maybe set that new pitch up with the fastball, is my question here.
After that, it is all question marks really with the 4 and 5.
The Mets do have a pool in which to work from of starters. But ranking them all is not quite possible yet. Personally, I would send Megill, Drew Smith, and either Harol Gonzales or some other good young starter from Syracuse, maybe Josh Walker, to Winter Ball for further development. I think that Thomas Szapucki is injured again right now though, so probably don't count on him.
I also think that Taijuan Walker is a very good possibility for the four slot.
I think that he probably just needs to rest his arm during the off season some and keep his practice time short. Making the All Star game was (I think) who he really is. But he may have tweaked his arm around that time.
Finally, for the five I would pick the best starter in-house available and taking in everything, with a sixth man backup ready as well.
Should the Mets go with the much discussed six man rotation in 2022?
A: I might consider it again. It could save hard throwers arms enough to allow them to go a complete season.
I agree. Think he might be in consideration for number five starter if not tradede.
Part Two. Hitting and Fielding.
First base it Pete. Second is open for discussion. McNeil or Cortez maybe. Short is Lindor. Third could potentially be Mauricio. He hit like 22 homers in minor league play and is like 6'4". Meaning that his power game could uptick in time. LF I like JDD, McNeil, or Dom. CF is Brandon. RF Khalil Lee maybe, or McNeil. C I think that I might take a look in ST at Francisco Alvarez. Why Not? Catcher is still open for discussion here as well I think.
I'd be happy with one top starter added and relying on current crop to fill the four and five spots. Peterson is one of the candidates although i fear he is trade bait.
Don't know enough about Oiler to make a comment.
JD and Dom are goners. Cortes is not an infielder and Lee is not an option.
Sign Baez, Get a CFer, get a hitter maybe Schawber or Castelanos.
I've always been a believer in the "devil you know vs the devil you don't" attitude.
Some players, as we've learned to our regret over the years, are just not "fits" in NY, though they may have been stars elsewhere.
While I like Lindor and feel he is progressing to the guy we expected, he certainly hasn't been worth the contract we gave him. That's one of the risks of an over-involved owner. Like George of the Bronx, Steve C used his heart vs his head because he "fell in love" over a dinner date. He needs to hire a strong President of Baseball Operations and stand back, but that's a tale for another campfire.
I'd start by giving QOs to Thor and 4to, and base other decisions on their responses. Giving up on them would be "selling low", and if they accept they will be motivated to get the big contract in a year.
I expect our rotation to be fine with Jake, Thor, Carrasco, Stro and Walker, now that the latter 3 have gotten a full year inder their belts. Megill, Peterson, and maybe Lucchesi and Yamamoto or Williams give us plenty of depth.
We must determine Cano's status before looking at the IF. He could be our 3B if he's not released, and be the "bridge" to Vientos, Baty or Mauricio.
McNeil is not as good on D as Baez, whom I think will be worth keeping. He's motivated to stay, makes a great MIF combo with his BFF, and has shown that he can modify his hitting style and increase his OBP while cutting down the Ks.
Villar is not an everyday player at any position, but is a very versatile guy who can fill in all over the IF and (I suspect) the OF is needed. He needs to control his baserunning, though. I like aggression on the bases, but at times he looks like Speedy Throneberry.
While I don't like "selling low", it looks like time to part ways with Dom and JD. They don't seem to have roles here, but other teams may offer value based on their potential.
Nimmo has vastly improved both AB and in CF, with staying healthy being his weakness. I'd keep him in CF, backed by Pillar (who, like Villar, fits better as a utility man than an everyday player) and maybe Khalil Lee.
Though he's had a disappointing season, I'm not ready to give up on a career.300+ hitter like McNeil. Let him have a full season in LF. RF is open only if 4to turns down the QO.
Avoiding the temptation to spend big on FAs who haven't played in NY would give us budget room for those who have.
New deals for Stro and Baez, QOs for Stro and 4to are the way I'd go. I'd look for a LH glove as 1B backup. If there's a DH, maybe keep Villar or Davis.
But 1st things 1st. Until a new CBA is sealed, we don't know about the DH in the NL, or what happens with the QO, or even if there will be a '22 season. Let's keep the fingers tightly crossed. 🤞
Raw, I like Oller as a dark horse for 2022’s rotation. Boy was he impressive down the stretch in AA and AAA. Saw some video. Good velo, excellent breaking stuff.
Thor will be on an innings limit, still would give DQ offer
Lucchesi is having tommy John surgery so don't count on him
Walker will be closer to 3 then a 4
Degrom will be on an innings limit
Stroman is going to get paid in a thin pitching market ,it just won't be with the Mets.
Kris Bryant would be a great signing 3rd/ outfield...
I think it may be a tough year
There is only so much money to spend..
I would try to field a solid defense and contact team, by 23 all those young guys will be ready to make an impact.
I like 4to but I'm not sure what he is ,DQ offer would not upset me..
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