Jeff McNeil will be a hungry squirrel in 2022, guaranteed
I love Facebook.
Frustrated Mets fans on Mets' fan sites on Facebook spew out their frustrations on guys who fail. And much of that is understandable - the Mets as a whole have failed this season.
Fans find themselves again on the verge, yea verily on the precipice, of missing the playoffs when, despite a slew of injuries, the post-season seemed so attainable for most of the season.
Failure. Then Anger. Fans looking for culprits.
So a number of "those people" say that Jeff McNeil should be traded this off season. Why? They feel:
1) He is in decline
2) League caught up to him
3) He just doesn't hit enough
4) The de-juiced baseballs have robbed him of HR power
I have several thoughts in that regard.
First, guys have bad seasons. This is Jeff's bad season.
There is a widely acclaimed Mets opponent who has had years where he has hit .243, .249, .260 and .268 - but the year after his .243, he hit .319, and this year, after his .268, he is hitting .313. His name? Bryce Harper.
There is a also Yankee who, in his last year playing in the very friendly-to-hitters confines of Coors Field hit a mere .276 with 62 RBIs in 128 games. He goes to the Yankees and in a friendly, but less friendly, park hits a far superior .327 with 102 RBIs in 145 games. His name? DJ Lemahieu.
Guys do bounce back from bad seasons. Why wouldn't McNeil?
McNeil hit .329 in his rookie partial year in 2018, .318 with a .531 slugging % in his full 2019, and, despite struggling much of shortened 2020, he surged at the end to hit .311, with (to be fair) just 4 HRs and 23 RBIs in 183 at bats.
In those 3 seasons, McNeil had BABIPs of .359, .337, and .335.
This year, that BABIP has slipped quite a bit to .279.
And his 7 HRs and 34 RBIs in 365 at bats has been decidedly paltry.
He's in fact had a tale of about 6 key season segments this year.
First, he started out a frigid 1 for 13 in frigid April, and was hitting just .194 through May 1, the first big slump of his career. He had just 2 HRs and 5 RBIs in that stretch, when essentially no Mets were hitting, or the ones who were hitting got hurt. He slumped along with everyone else, and knowing the Squirrel, he tried too hard.
Second segment, over the ensuing two weeks, he hit like McNeil again, going 13 for 40.
Then (as hot Mets so often do) he got hurt. And missed 5 weeks.
Third, he came back less than 100% and was glacially cold for a few weeks, going 7 for 38 with just 2 RBIs, slipping to .229 on July 1.
Fourth, he caught fire for the rest of July, although he sat a lot again due to his < 100% leg; he hit 27 for 73 over the rest of July with 14 RBIs to climb as high as .281 - yep, the Squirrel was flying again. Getting back to .300 seemed just a hop, skip and a jump away.
Fifth, he puzzled all of us by going into another protracted swoon, dropping to .243 on September 9 during a punchless 6 week span.
Sixth, from September 10 thru 19, he hit a more McNeil-like 11 for 32, inching back up to .252.
I have a feeling that number haunts him - he knows he is a lot better than that.
The NY Post just wrote the following about McNeil, shedding some light on matters:
"...there’s also been a drop-off in his BABIP (batting average balls in play), suggesting unluckier outcomes than in previous years.
...McNeil, according to Statcast, has an expected slugging percentage of .414 — well above his .357.
“It takes a pretty unique personality to be able to weather that much bad luck, I don’t know how many humans could do it,” hitting coach Hugh Quattlebaum told The Post. “All the expected numbers are saying he was a victim of an extraordinary amount of bad luck.”"
Pretty much everything that could go wrong for Jeff McNeil this year did go wrong. As Bryce Harper's and DJ Lemahieu's stats suggest, bad years are often followed by much better seasons.
McNeil will turn 30 at the start of the 2022 season, and should still be in his prime. He will want big-time payback next season. In fairness, his HR numbers have flagged in 2020 and 2021, with just 11 long balls in 548 at bats. He clearly will have to do something about that. Moving the fences in a bit, as I keep suggesting, would help him - and other Mets' hitters, too.
Money-wise, McNeil is, after 2 partial .300+ seasons and one full .300+ season, making a "paltry" $642,000 this season. He probably will finally jump a few million in 2022, but will still be cheap by baseball's salary standards.
If I was the GM of the Mets, I plan on keeping the still inexpensive McNeil at least for 2022 while waiting for Mark Vientos and Brett Baty to arrive as fully functional major leaguers. With Ronny Mauricio and Francisco Alvarez not that much further behind.
I can see a McNeil bounce-back in 2022 to 500 ABs, 15 HRs, 65 RBIs, and .300. Then, trade him high if and when these other new, cheaper guys are ready.
"Ready" for them, though, has to be defined as being capable of playing well enough to augment and support, and not damage, the Mets' playoff chances in 2022 and 2023.
Until then, why trade away a guy, in McNeil, who, despite, his intensely frustrating 2021, is still a career .300 hitter? .300 hitters are like the lubricant for a high performing team's offensive engine. The Mets' hitting engine as a whole has sputtered this year. McNeil is a part of that, but he is far from the only culprit.
If it is up to me, I am keeping McNeil for 2022. He has had a bad 2021. He may just have a career year in 2022.
Kind of like Daniel Murphy did when he went to the Nats from the Mets. Remember that? Back then, I was screaming from this site, "TRADE LUCAS DUDA!! PUT MURPHY AT 1B." Murph went from .281 with 73 RBIs as a Met in 2015 to 104 RBIs and 77 XBHs in 142 Nationals' games in 2016 while hitting .347.
McNeil and Murphy are very similar players in my view.
I'd like to see McNeil do that big bounce back year with the Mets in 2022. Keep him, don't trade him.
Two last examples. Tommie Agee hit .217 with 17 RBIs in 132 games in 1968. In 1969, he bounced back hugely and hit .271 with 76 RBIs - do they win the World Series without him that year? I don't think so.
And Keith Hernandez was having a so-so 1983 with the Redbirds, got traded to the Mets, and guess what? "BOUNCE BACK!" And a 1986 World Series win - do they win that without Keith? I don't think so.
Keep McNeil. Maybe the Mets win a World Series in 2022, and you'll ask yourself the question....do they win it without McNeil? And you may find yourself replying, "I don't think so." Keep the Squirrel in the Mets' Zoo.
Lastly, after last night, the Mets Magic Number is ZERO. Even if the Math technically says otherwise.
9 comments:
Tom
I also am a big fan of Jeff. I really am. But I'm not sure I have a place for him in my starting lineup.
My second baseman is Baez and I would move Cano to third for 2022 waiting on Baty to graduate.
I would QO Conforto for RF and one of Jeff/Dom/JD would play LF until Vientos is ready.
That's just me.
Singles hitters get no respect unless they have lightning baserunning speed. If he can approach the 15-20 HR level again and hit .300 there is a place for him here.
15-20 homers,300 BA,sign him up.But how likely is that?
Mack, I would want McNeil in the OF before Conforto. I think a huge problem with this offense is to many .250 or lower hitters. Conforto being one. McNeil gives them a lot more hits normally, and that engine keeps the offense pulsating.
Reese, I agree.
I think 15-20 HRs over 500 at bats, and .300 is entirely doable. I think by the end of next year, Alex Ramirez will be. looming closer as a future Mets OF stud. Jeff gets us thru 2022.
Tom, you are absolutely right!!
The analogy to Daniel Murphy is perfect. The first time I got to see McNeil at the plate I said "this is the next Murph". He has a plan at the plate and can hit for average to all fields. I am very confident he will bounce back because all indicators are that this season is an anomaly. He is very tough on himself, and when things go bad as they did this season, with injury, position changes, and the "bad luck" you mentioned, he is likely stepping to the plate in the wrong frame of mind. This is what causes players to slump, and he really needs some extended time off to reset. When he does, he will be a huge benefit to his team. I hope he continues to call the Mets "his team" for the foreseeable future.
Paul, well “articulated”
I have Jeff pencilled in as the starting right fielder in 2022. I agree with Mack that you Q.O. Conforto, but there is no way he accepts it and there is another team out there that will pay him bigger bucks than the Mets will. Baez is a bigger priority at this point for those dollars.
Yes, I expect McNeil to bounce back as well.
Bill, would you rather have McNeil at say $2.5 million one year in right field, or an expensive multi-year Conforto, especially with Mauricio perhaps ready to come up as a power hitting OF in 2023 and perhaps even 18 year old Alex Ramirez, with a full year of AA and AAA under his belt in 2022? Conforto is not Bryce Harper - I pass on any long term obligation. I imagine you QO Conforto. Because if I were a team like the Yankees, with the porch, I'd be real interested in him. But I am not anxious to see him stay. Especially for multiple years. He is a big, big part of this season's failure.
Okay then.
Let's say the Mets get someone new for second base. Not Jeff. And Vientos gets third base out of ST. Not Jeff. Not JDD.
Then, who would you prefer for left field between McNeil, JDD, and Dom?
Believe it or not, I prefer JDD because once his hand is healed he will hit for both average and homeruns. Jeff and Dom can, but I just like JDD's chances more right now.
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