Long term baseball contracts.
Age-related decline.
The two are inextricably intertwined.
Man, I always wanted to write "inextricably intertwined." Anyway:
There once was a player who in his three age 26 through 28 seasons averaged 27 HRs, 97 RBIs, ,284 with a .500 slug %, and stole 43 of 50 bases. Fine fielder. Wow.
Do that today, and turn free agent, and you'll get an 8 year, $250 million contract.
Then this fella didn't subsequently plummet, but in his next 3 seasons, ages 29-31, he averaged 21 HRs and 80 RBIs, and hit .267 and stole 30 of 45. Good, but....
Not the stuff of 8 years, $250 million.
Thereafter, in his final 3 years, aged 32 through 34, he played the equivalent of 2 full seasons and hit a total of 28 HRs and knocked in 112 runs, basically an average of 14 HRs and 56 RBIs per full season equivalent, and hit .248. More decline.
Not the stuff of 8 years, $250 million.
His next two years, which would have been years 7 and 8 of his hypothetical 8 year, $250 million contract, he was....retired.
His name? Kevin McReynolds.
Fast forward to 2021. A certain guy just finished his age 28 year. To simplify the comparison, let's drop COVID-shortened 2020, and average this fella's 2018, 2019, and 2021 seasons. 25 HRs, 77 RBIs, .244, and 11 steals in 17 attempts. Well short of Kevin McReynolds #'s.
But, no doubt, the new guy wants a monster contract. Perhaps not 8 years, $250 million but as close to that as he can get. Maybe 6 years, $140 million, like Javy Baez just got.
Consider the decline of McReynolds over his next two 3-year segments (29-31 and 32-34) and ask yourself this:
What is the second guy really worth this off-season?
His name? Michael Conforto.
Not as good as McReynolds was.
OK, MC wants multi-year? If I were the Mets and I wanted MC back, I'd consider offering, at most, 3 years, $71 million - the money Marcus Stroman just signed for.
On the other hand, Conforto has not hit much better than Lucas Duda did at the same ages with the Mets.
In his subsequent two years after age 28, at age 29-30, Duda hit 57 HRs, but was otherwise in decline, and that decline continued in his 3rd subsequent (age 32) year. And thereafter.
Age is a tough taskmaster in baseball for so many guys.
I think Conforto will do somewhat better than Duda did. But not enough better. If I were paying Conforto based on what I perceive his value to be, I'd give him (at most) 2 years, $40 million to stay with the Mets. Nothing more. He likely wouldn't take it. We've got another MC guy, Mark Canha, for 2 years. I'm happy with that. Let's move on.
But the next time someone tells you how great a guy like Kris Bryant would be and that he ought to be signed for 6 years, $140 million, consider the above first.
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