Tom Brennan - Mending Fences: Mets' Hitters Are Road Warriors, but Home Blues Make Citifield an Unattractive Neighborhood for Those Hitters

Would you buy in this neighborhood?  How is the Quality of Life?

Free agency, well, it is a lot like home buying.

You hope to get the best financial deal, sure.

But in buying a home, you want to live, among other things, where you're productive and happy.

Same in baseball - you want the park where you call home to make you productive and happy.

Happiness as a hitter is hitting successfully, and making the playoffs.

So...what does the Mets "neighborhood" have to offer?  

The equivalent, it seems, of high crime and distraction.

As in, low home scoring and few playoff appearances, as in 3 in 20 seasons, to be precise.

Hitting-wise, the Mets are road warriors since the last fence move in.  Let me prove that.

Over the past 7 seasons (6 full and one 60 gamer) since the fences were moved in prior to the 2015 season, the Mets have scored 111 more total runs ON THE ROAD than the average major league team, and 47 more homers.  

Keep in mind, I am comparing the Mets hitters to ALL MLB teams, including AL teams with the DH, so logically, one would think they'd score less.  To me, this shows this Mets squad since 2015 has been above average offensively.

Considering they mostly hit without a DH, that is excellent offensive production on the road.

"But," a free agent shopper might ask his realtor, who might be named - oh, I dunno - Boras, "what sort of neighborhood is the Citifield section of Corona, Queens?"

"Well. Mr. Free Agent Shopper," said the realtor/agent in reply, "not so good, I'm afraid, but you be the judge, sir.  You're the one that has to live here.  I get my commission and leave."

In fact, over the past 7 seasons (6 full and one 60 gamer) since the fences were moved in prior to the 2015 season, the Mets have scored a whopping 271 less total runs AT HOME than the average major league team, and just 7 more homers.  

Could you imagine if, like on the road, the Mets also scored 111 more runs at home over those 6.4 seasons, and not 271 less, than the opposition?  

That 382 run deficit represents a LOT of offense.  

In fact, in those 6 full seasons (excluding 2020's shorty), the Mets averaged 361 runs a season on the road, the place where they do their best hitting.  

That 382 run deficit in scoring at home since 2015?  That's equal to more than a full season's road scoring!

The Mets have averaged being 11th best in baseball in scoring runs on the road, despite not having a DH.  Man, that's solid.

At home, though, they've averaged a paltry 25th best in baseball in scoring runs.  As a fan, just looking at run production at home, you'd think the hitters - well - suck.

Many fans think just that about many Mets hitters.

Who wants to live in a neighborhood where due to circumstances beyond your control, you're less productive, and the neighbors are illogically hostile to you as a result?

Players know this - the bigger home shoppers only come (or agree to stay) for a bigger paycheck. Like Francisco Lindor, who quickly hated the boos.

James McCann (.217 at home, .246 on the road) being another recent example.  If he hit his road slash of .246/.300/.372 in all of his 2021 games, I think fans would have been much more satisfied with him.

So you miss the best talent, because players like to make the playoffs, which the Mets usually do not, and hitters like to hit well, which at Citifield they usually do not.

Kevin Pillar packed up and left.  At home this year, he hit a power-squeezed .203.  On the road, a solidly powered .256.  He said Citifield is hard to hit in.  

So also said Jeff McNeil.  In that comment, he included Pete Alonso when he said it, who had just missed a HR that night.  

Pete, case in point, had 25 homers in 77 road games, a 50 HR pace.  A pace he is capable of.  

At home, he hit a mere 12 in 75 games, just a 25 HR pace.

Pete loves NY.  But if you get him thinking about it for long enough, he might think he'd be better off playing somewhere else, where he could hit 50 HRs a season because the home park is not a hindrance, and thus be more "productive and happy".

Michael Conforto may soon leave.  Did he seem "productive and happy" at home to you this year?  Didn't think so.

His 2021 slash lines home and away were fairly even, although his slugging % was 50 points lower at home, probably the result of several long drive near-misses that would have been just out, or off the wall, elsewhere.  

Career-wise, his home and away slash line is virtually identical.

Which sounds OK, at first, but a hitter would hope to reap more of a home field advantage hitting, not home neutrality.  I am not saying it would be a large advantage, but it ought to be somewhat more productive at home than away.

Pretty soon, old Michael, he may find a new neighborhood, more to his liking in terms of offensive productivity and playoff frequency.  Who could blame him?  In the blink of an eye, his career is likely already half, or more than half, over. Time to cash in and move to a better neighborhood.  I would.  A friendlier park where I get to play meaningful October baseball.

The Mets need to do whatever they can to create an attractive, productive neighborhood for shoppers.

Me?  I've said it before, I'll say it again, I'd move the fences in 5-7 feet, and just 400 in CF.  That ought to restore, oh, about 382 runs that have gone missing at home since 2015 due to substandard home hitting conditions.

Look at it this way: if over a 7 season stretch, the Mets are the 11th highest scoring road team. To me that means over those 7 years, they are the 11th best hitting team, AL and NL. But you just wouldn’t know it once you factor in their 25th best home scoring, would you?

Allow me to conclude:

The Mets last announced a fence move in on November 18, 2014.

I would be thrilled to read on November 18, 2021 that they are doing it again, in order to improve and beautify their neighborhood.  Make it, to use a 2021 woke word, more equitable.

Because right now, in terms of attracting and retaining offensive talent, it is a lousy neighborhood.  Depressing.

And "Depressing" doesn't spin the turnstiles.

Mending fences is always a great thing to do.