One of the hot topics that's arisen frequently throughout the baseball universe after the announcement that David Stearns is indeed the New York Mets new President of Baseball Operations (POBO) is what the future holds for Hall of Fame destined manager Buck Showalter. He signed a three year deal when he came to work for Steve Cohen in the dugout. No one could have hoped for more than what Showalter delivered to the moribund team in 2022.
Then came the 2023 fiasco during which players including Edwin Diaz, Justin Verlander, Jose Quintana, Pete Alonso, Starling Marte, Tomas Nido and many others went down with injuries lasting from weeks to the length of the entire season.
Then there was the lackluster efforts to begin the year by sure-thing players like Max Scherzer, Starling Marte, Mark Canha and nearly every player delivering far less than was expected based upon their professional careers, well, the results were shocking and disappointing. How much of the injuries and slumps were the manager's fault is difficult to ascertain, but many people are looking for justifable moves to rid the team of this all-time but suddenly over-the-hill manager unable to figure out how to win.
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So with the arrival of the POBO many people are already dancing up and down at the prospect of a new dugout maestro of Stearns' choosing to take over for the man who brought the Mets up until Monday of this week an overall record of 167-139. Taken as a measure of relative baseball success or failure, that would make his thus far New York Mets managerial record a .546 winning percentage. For his career Showalter has a twenty two year winning record that is positive at .509 but that falls well below what he's actually done during his tenure with the Mets.
Stepping back and looking at what Showalter has done right and wrong, based upon traditional metrics you cannot fault his output while at the helm for New York's National League team. It does call to mind that old philosophical question about would you want to cross a stream that is on average three feet deep.
Most people immediately say yes as three feet is not enough to cause a hardship to adults of typical size until the person asking the question points out the word "average" to indicate that the three foot metric can be the result of tremendously deeper streams and significantly drier ones. Then that three foot average is not quite as harmless as it seems.
When you choose someone to head up a department, division or in this case essentially an entire company, you grant that individual the autonomy to make decisions without having to check with someone for approval.
Now to complicate matters, Counsell has been fairly public about his desire to take a year away from baseball management to spend time with his family. As a former player and then a baseball manager he has spent a quarter of a century away from the people he loves in order to travel around the continent to play a game. That conjecture about Counsell going on a baseball version of a sabbatical may or may not be true, but you can't fault the man either way.
On the Showalter side a new and interesting tidbit emerged that Showalter may indeed resign rather than return for what is likely a lame duck year in 2024. No one saw that option as being a viable choice, but approaching age 70 it is also reasonable for someone to think it might be better to hang them up than it would be to continue the stress that 162 games all over the country for more than six months of the year would bring.
If Showalter did voluntarily give up the third year of his contract with Steve Cohen, he would likely be rewarded with some small fraction of the money he was legally entitled to earn for the 2024 season and despite the 2024 disaster, it would be leaving a huge pair of shoes to fill.
In a Mets version of the Aaron Rodgers debacle, what if Counsell indeed opts for a year off or gets romanced to continue his tenure in Milwaukee? He would then be off the table. What if Buck Showalter took his own time away from the game and gave up on the 2024 season? Then the Mets wouldn't have him there either.
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So the question to ponder is who is Plan C if neither Craig Counsell nor Buck Showalter come through as Plans A and B (or B and A)?
9 comments:
To start with Chaim Bloom was fired by Boston this morning. While I still believe that Van Waganen did a decent job of building up the infrastructure of the Mets, his arrogance hurt the team. Hard to say if Bloom would have been better.
The best executives are observers. They take time to take in circumstances before making decisions. That was BVW’s biggest error. Hopefully, Stearns knows better. If Showalter and Counsell aren’t available, hire Carlos Beltran and let him take a shot. But, Showalter’s playing the kids this September May show that he’s coming back. He still wants a title.
He's playing the kids mostly out of necessity not out of trying to ascertain 2024 roles. If Luis Guillorme was healthy Mark Vientos would be Krazy-glued to the bench as he was earlier in the season. It's funny now that he's playing regularly the hits are coming more regularly. Strange how that happens instead of the self-assured failure of only playing when all other options have exhausted themselves. Look at DJ Stewart. He wouldn't have gotten the chance if not for the departures due to trades or health of Canha, Pham and Marte.
Buck has one more year on his contract. If Stearns is going to replace him, he had better do it with someone that really has a great track record like Counsell. If he takes a flier on someone without the track record (like Beltran) and fails, then everything unravels.
Buck has done a good job with the Mets, although I agree with the people who are confounded by his disinterest in playing the young guys regularly. I don't like some of his game decisions with pitching, but with the bullpen we have now, no decision could be good.
To me, he gets a chance next year to show he can do a good job managing a team that has a better mix.
First Buck
Reese, you were a manager in the business world for years.
Next year Stearns will be 39
Buck will be 68
How many 39 year old managers have you seen even attempt to manage a 68 year old?
It is mostly about the players playing well and staying healthy. Buck has failed in the latter category, by not retaliating more. Personally, I would probably, as Gus suggests, try Beltran. And for one year, hit more opposing batters than our guys get hit.
Baseballs thrown in anger injure people and alter trajectories. Last year, Marte getting a broken hand on a Sept HBP cost them the division, and perhaps the World Series.
In 2023, Pete's plunk by the Braves sent him to the IL and a deep slump, and caused them to miss the playoffs and dismantle the team.
I want a manager who will retaliate. People slow down when they know traffic cops are hiding. Opposing pitchers will be more careful, knowing that when they plunk someone, one or more of their guys will surely pay.
I think the graceful solution is to keep Buck for his third year and let him know that it is his final one. That gives Counsell the year away he wants and gives Beltran another year to soak up what he can learn on the periphery.
I think the Mets should hire The Rock as their manager and he can lead the charge to the mound when a hitter is plunked
End of that problem
Reese, longevity does not make someone a HOF manager. I think the only way he gets in is by buying a ticket.
My only problem with both Buck and now David Stearns is that neither one has taken it all the way to winning the WS.
Personally, I might consider Eric Chavez for the 2024 NY Mets manager position.
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