Paul Articulates – Let’s talk value

It is very easy in baseball to note current trends and react as if those trends define a player’s value.  There might be a case for instantaneous value, but as we all know the baseball season is long and full of performance variations throughout.  So it may be worthwhile to look at the total picture to date on some of our favorite Mets to determine their value to this team as the trade deadline looms.

Starting Pitchers:  None of the Mets’ starters is going to get a Cy Young vote this year – they have just not put up the numbers, whether you are looking at Wins, ERA, or even K’s.  However, there is value in eating innings and three pitchers have actually performed well in that area despite my protestations that “no one can go more than five innings”.  

Luis Severino has pitched 115.2 innings over these first 100 games of the season which extrapolates to 186.6 for the season.  That is an admirable number of innings and it certainly helps the team.  Joining him in the hundred inning club are Jose Quintana (107.1 innings so far, projects to 173.5 for the season) and Sean Manaea (106 innings so far, projects to 171.7 for the season).  

We could use a few more pitchers with some endurance, as no one else comes close to the 100+ innings logged by this trio.  By the way, since you were probably curious, Severino’s 115.2 innings pitched thus far ties him for 28th among MLB starters.  

As a team, Mets starting pitchers have logged 538 innings through the first 100 games, putting them in the lower half of the league with a rank of 17.  The best in baseball are the Seattle Mariners with 609.1 innings logged by their starters.  The Phillies lead the NL with 590.2 innings.

Relief Pitchers:  There are several ways to measure the value of relief pitchers – certainly saves is a marquee number, but there are many interdependencies with the team’s offense and defense, so I like to measure relievers with WHIP.  Low WHIP is critical for a reliever, because they often come in with runners on base, so the ability to keep batters off base is the most effective trait.  

As  a team, the Mets have a 1.32 WHIP which puts them 22nd among 30 teams.  This is not surprising, as they have had issues with walking batters all year.  Their 165 bases on balls ties them for fifth worst in baseball.  Best on the Mets (at least 30 IP) is Dedniel Nunez with a 0.93 WHIP.  Adrian Houser, Edwin Diaz, Sean Reid-Foley, and Adam Ottavino are better than the team 1.32 average though that does not say much.  

Only Nunez and Diaz are below a 1.2 WHIP which is generally recognized as sufficient.  Note that Jose Butto has a 0.75 WHIP and Phil Maton has a 0.60 WHIP but both have pitched 10 innings or less in relief so far, so they are not included.

Infielders: He may not have been selected to the all-star team, but Francisco Lindor is having a season that many all-stars would envy.  Lindor is so consistent in the field that his defense is taken for granted by most folks but make no mistake about it – this is consistent greatness.  His Outs Above Average (OAA) is in the 97th percentile among major leaguers.  

On the offensive side, Lindor has 21 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and 60 RBIs.  Project that to the end of the 162 game season (and he’ll play them all), and he records 34 homers, 32 steals, and 97 RBI.  

Throw in the intangibles of his leadership on and off the field, his value as a face to the media in all situations, and you have someone that is earning his $32M this year.  None of the other infielders matches this value, but with Vientos’ hitting, McNeil’s defensive versatility, Iglesias’ bat/glove, and Pete’s power this is a group that I am happy to watch.  Speaking of Pete, he is hurting his value heading into his free agent period unless he turns things around .

Outfielders: Harrison Bader has provided the Mets with spark this year.  His glove, his clutch hitting, and his hustle have made him a very strategic acquisition this year.  His ability to hold down center field has given Brandon Nimmo better durability and allowed Tyrone Taylor (another center fielder) to provide tremendous range filling at any outfield position.  I think all three of these players have added value to the team.  

Starling Marte may be an incredibly fast player, but he is also an incredibly slow healer.  He has not earned his $19.5M by sitting on the bench this year.  DJ Stewart has not hit his weight, and is not a particularly skillful defender so his value to the team is only as a DH and with a .181 batting average that value is minimal.

Catchers: Francisco Alvarez has shown all the signs of becoming a MLB star.  Unfortunately, he has not hit well in the last few months so there is not a lot of buzz about him.  However, there is no one better than Alvarez behind the plate for this pitching staff – he makes them better.  

There have been some eye-popping statistics out there that show things like pitchers’ ERA being 2 runs lower with Alvarez behind the plate versus another catcher.  I believe it.  He just needs to produce to his offensive potential to reach star caliber.  As a backup, Luis Torrens gives the Mets everything they need.  

He may not manage the pitching staff like Alvarez, but with a .276 batting average, .845 OPS, and 1.87 second pop time (95th percentile in MLB) he is a welcomed player in the lineup on rest days for Alvarez.

Other: Designated Hitter JD Martinez was acquired by the Mets this year for a very low price compared to his value as a player with a distinguished 14 year career.  His .262/.344/.442 slash line is not what everyone hoped for, but JD provides tremendous value in the clubhouse that goes well beyond his statistics.  

There have been a few stories about his batting tips helping other players improve their performance or break out of slumps.  For every story that gets out, there are probably two that are left unstated.  This guy could be the hitting coach right now if he were not being paid to play.  I’m sure many teams would trade for him but it is not likely that they can match the value the Mets are getting from him.