7/3/24

Tom Brennan: High K Rates & Pitch Counts, Low Stability; What To Do With the Line Up



At least Peterson & Megill are far better than ex-Met Tom Szapucki


Tylor Megill, in his 4th season, and just got sent down - again.

This year, in AAA and the majors, he's fanned 72 in 53 innings. 304 Ks in 302 career MLB innings.

But his Mets WHIP is 1.44 this year, and 1.42 career.  His career ERA is 4.76, and is 5.08 this year.  

And he occasionally gets into the 5th inning in his starts, rarely gets to the 6th, and almost never gets to the 7th.  He is 19-20 career.

Yet, his stuff is good.

David Peterson (5th MLB season) has not gotten sent down again.

This year, in AAA and the majors (before his nice 6.1 inning outing on Monday), he fanned 55 in 51 innings. 383 Ks in 360 career MLB innings.

But his Mets WHIP is 1.48 this year, and 1.42 career.  His career ERA is 4.45, and is 3.67 this year.  

He also has trouble getting deep into games in his starts. He is 21-21 career.

Yet, his stuff is good.

Questions:

What can they do to improve?

Could they be far more successful pitching out of the bullpen?

Or…just pound the zone more?

What say you, readers?


WHAT TO DO WITH THE LINE UP AND PEN?

First of all, in a bizarre continuation of player "action" starting with Edwin's "sticky situation" 10 days ago, Drew Smith gets seriously hurt, Starling Marte goes out for a month (at least) with a bone bruise in his knee, Reid Foley is back (no surprise) no time soon, Tyler Jay and Matt Festa get called up and lit up in their outings, etc.

Then...more bizarre stuff:

JD Martinez was scratched from last night's game due to ankle soreness which (i kid you not) he attributed to a late shipment of Adidas spikes. Martinez ordered a different pair from elsewhere, wore them the night he hit the 3 run 10th inning shot on Monday, woke up sore Tuesday, and felt a sharp pain in his ankle in BP and sat it out to get treatment.  Where are those darned shoes?

Harrison Bader I am always concerned about due to past missed time.  So, not surprisingly, he crashed into the outfield wall last night, came out, and apparently will be available on Wednesday.

We badly need Martinez and Bader to be healthy, period.  Without Marte and Bader, we'd be left with the totally underwhelming offensive duo of Tyrone Taylor and DJ Stewart.  Combined, they were excellent in April, but could not be worse in May thru now.  

Tyrone Taylor since the last 3 games he played in April is 20 for 113, and take out his 4 for 5 game in June and over all the other games in that stretch, he is 16 for 108 (.148).  He did make one heck of a leaping catch at the wall vs. Washington, but that .148 number is quite disturbing.

Jeff McNeil ditto  -  he was not great in April but he was pretty decent. I think we thought warmer weather would awaken his bat. Nope.

The 2022 batting champ has been horrific since April.  Just .202 in May, .194 in June, and 1 for 9 in July.

So:

Let's pray JD and Bader (.270) are OK and ready to play. Pray very hard.  

They are vitally needed.

Let's also bench McNeil and play Jose Iglesias almost every day, too.  

Jose is hitting .388 in 49 ABs with 10 RBIs since his recall, and a .280 career hitter, while Jeff (.215) has driven in just 19 in 267 at bats.  

Ride the hot bat.  Last night, in the 10th, Iglesias shot a liner down the line to left - foul by inches. So, he then proceeds to drive a double down the right field line.  I'd sit McNeil if possible until the All Star break, and then try to re-start him.

I would also call up Brett Baty at the earliest opportunity and put him at 2B when Iglesias does not play, and give Vientos a day off here and there.  Baty's had 91 AAA at bats since his demotion and is hitting .319, and he did not hit well as a Met, but he hit better than McNeil has.   

PINPOINT PEN CONTROL

100 MPH Mets pitchers? Minors starter Brandon Sproat, chosen to pitch in the Futures Game this month.

And relievers Shintaro Fujinami and Bryce Montes de Oca.

When last we saw Shintaro Fujinami, he was extraordinarily wild.  Steve Blass wild.  So now he is rehabbing.  His last 2 rehab outings in A and AA were perfect 1-2-3 innings.

In those two games, he totaled just 14 pitches - all 14 were for strikes.  

Stop and ponder that one.  Blass has turned into Saberhagen.

Bryce Montes de Oca's last 2 AA rehab outings, also 1-2-3 innings. Bryce, whose control has often been concerning, needed 17 pitches in the 2 outings, 13 of which were strikes.  

He just got bumped to Syracuse, which tells me we could see him in Queens perhaps as soon as next week, with Fujinami not far behind.  

Two fireballing control freaks.  I like that.


TONG TERRIFIC

Jonah Tong continues to amaze. 

He went 5 innings for Brooklyn last night, fanned 7 and allowed 1 hit in the 5th inning. This 21 year old righty is 4-1, 2.17 between Lucie and Brooklyn, and 99 Ks in 66 innings.  13.5 per 9 IP.

He has a major league velocity fastball with significant, controllable movement, and has other fine pitches he mixes together well. 

He deserves, even if it seems rapid, to be promoted to Binghamton. 

Why?

1) He's had 11 outings already for Brooklyn, after he dismantled FSL opposing hitters at the start of 2024.

2) Last 3 outings for Brooklyn, 16 innings, 1 run, 5 hits, 25 Ks. Stunning.

Right after the Futures game, I would promote Sproat to AAA, and promote Tong to AA.


KODAI THE CYCLONE

Read this:

“Brooklyn Cyclones announced that RHP Kodai Senga is slated to make a Major League rehab start with the team on Wednesday evening against Hudson Valley at Maimonides Park.”

- Another bright light at the edge of the horizon.

LGM





13 comments:

Gary Seagren said...

Exciting stuff and such a turnaround since that May disaster. It does amaze me that that old rule of guarding the lines in late innings isn't used much any more and we're glad for sure as the Nats got smoked again. That Senga fella you mentioned I do remember his name I'll have to look him up. Tong is killing it but as Mack says it doesn't count till their at least at double A but fun to watch and if he does make it up to the big club I could see fans wearing the Stones tongue logo shirts or now "Tong" shirts to games.

Tom Brennan said...

Gary, I think he is a piano bar Senga, but I will have to look, too.

Tong has to be for real, to post his last 3 starts with such dominance. He has to be ready to at least be competitive in AA.

Incredible strides since last year.

Viper said...

Lot to digest here. All good stuff.

I would start McNeil in RF while Bader is out which opens up 2B to Iglesias.

Megill and Peterson belong in the BP. Festa and Jay are not ready.

Martinez and Bader should be fine.

Love that Scott and Butto are back in the ML. They have nothing left to prove in the minors.

Fujinami (thought he was gone) and Montes de Oca makes you dream about what the BP could look like on the back end.

Sproat and Tong are the next prospects to get excited about.

Like I said before, Megill, Peterson, Butto to the BP and the Mets probably don't need to trade anyone. All they need is in-house already.

I would however, leave Baty at AAA for now. Yes, he has done enough to be brought up but why mess with Vientos again when he has become so important in the lineup?. The future of Baty is 3B and Vientos is 1B if Alonso is foolish enough to continue to ask for 200M.

Next year if Alonso is gone then Baty 3B, Vientos 1B.
If Alonso is still here then Baty and Vientos split time between DH, 3B.

Mack Ade said...

Why doesn't anyone say something nice about Douglas Orellana???

bill metsiac said...

Baty is the big part of the puzzle. If he's the guy we've hoped for, we don't want to make him the second coming of Amos Otis, who "didn't have a spot", was traded for garbage, and became a perennial all-star.

We also can't keep him at AAA forever if he keeps producing, but promoting him to be a part-timer who takes playing time from Mark V doesn't make sense either.

Converting him to 2B, an important defensive position, makes no sense either, with McNeil and Iglasias far superior there.

I wish he could play OF, replacing DJ and filling in for Marte, but he's not even a thought in the mind of the decision-makers.

So IMO none of the possibilities is close to ideal, but we've gotta pick one. I guess keeping him upstate until an opening happens in Queens via trade or injury is the most realistic.

As for the pen, Diaz is due back this weekend, and I've read that Reid-Foley is almost ready (though Tom has heard otherwise)..I'm not in favor of trading for a RP, and prefer using SPs like Megill, Q, or Scott (to control his IP limits) to fill the gap.

Regardless of the pen #s to date, a back end of Diaz, Otto, Garrett, Nunez and Reid-Foley looks pretty solid to me, with Diekman and Houser in the middle and one of the SPs as the final piece. I like (as I'm sure everyone does) what Butto showed there last night.

No need for gloom and doom.

bill metsiac said...

I guess we're leaving that to you, since mosf us have never seen (or even heard about) him. 😁

Mack Ade said...

Read on Sunday

Mack Ade said...

Everybody deserves to play this game. Sadly, Brett's future might be wearing a different uniform

bill metsiac said...

I always do.

Paul Articulates said...

So many topics, so little time to respond...
I was very disappointed to see Festa DFA'ed. He had a really great WHIP in AAA and would have done well in his first MLB outing if he had a better out pitch. He threw strikes, but got hit with two strikes. Now he is open to another team to claim, which would be a tragedy, especially when you consider the number of attempts some of these other pitchers are given. I hope the other GMs are busy at 4th of July picnics and miss out so we can reassign him to AAA Syracuse.

TexasGusCC said...

Paul, we disagree on Festa and I believe the reason he was chosen was because he wasn’t “a big loss” to the MLB team. Not having an out pitch for two strikes is terrible. Plus, I don’t like Diekman. Last Saturday Diekman walked everyone he faced and threw a wild pitch. That is pathetic and Garrett had no room for error so he loses the game. Sad to see that, and take that kind of loss.

Tom Brennan said...

Jay and Joey are our other lefties as possible functional pen lefties. Who am I missing? The Mets organization is a lefty-feee zone. Maybe DrewGilbert can be a two-way player.

Tom Brennan said...

Viper, thanks.

And Baty likely can and should stay in AAA until he is traded or be called up after the trade deadline, or even Sept 1.

Learn 2B and the outfield. Just don’t get injured in the process.