September first is almost upon us, and with that date comes the MLB roster expansion. Teams that have held 26 player active rosters can now expand to 28 players with up to 14 pitchers. For the New York Mets, this year’s roster expansion comes with some interesting choices to be made.
The Mets are in a race for a wild card spot in the playoffs, currently down 1.5 games with 35 games to play. This year’s “competitive” team as constructed by the front office needs to be very competitive over the next month to get in. The roster expansion always provides an opportunity to gain an extra dimension – be that some more speed, a late-inning defensive specialist, or an extra arm for the bullpen.
The Mets have another rough stretch to endure before that September 1st milestone. Having finished up with the Orioles, they now must travel to San Diego to face the hot Padres for four games, then go to Arizona to play the hot Diamondbacks for another three games. Both of those teams are in the same playoff race for the three NL wild card spots, with the Padres and D-Backs in lead positions and the Mets just outside looking in. Depending on their performance on the road trip, there are a few different trajectories that we may see as they add players during their series with the White Sox in Chicago.
Scenario 1: The Mets get hot on the road and head into September 1st holding a top 3 position in the wild card standings. In this case, winning many of the remaining 22 games is paramount and any roster moves made with the expansion must give them an extra edge. In this scenario, they certainly need pitching help. There is not much opportunity to impact starting pitching because there do not appear to be MLB-ready starting pitchers in our development system. If Christian Scott returns from injury that would be a plus. So the most likely call-ups would be relievers to allow Carlos Mendoza more flexibility from the pen.
Scenario 2: The Mets hold their own on the road and remain at the edge of a wild card spot. This looks very much like the first scenario because the call-ups will have to be players that are ready to perform in critical spots.
Scenario 3: The Mets get thumped by their playoff rivals and fall further behind in the playoff race. In this scenario, there may be more opportunity to call up a player that needs to get some MLB experience but may not be a sure thing to perform in a critical spot.
Given that the first two scenarios have a similar need from their call-ups, let’s group them together as “Plan A” and the third scenario will become “Plan B”. We can then debate what David Stearns might do for each plan.
Plan A: The Mets currently have 13 pitchers on their active roster. That includes the five starters Severino, Manaea, Quintana, Peterson, and Blackburn. The other eight are relievers (7 righties and 1 lefty). If Christian Scott returns (he started throwing last week), then he should be added to the roster as the 14th pitcher. The bullpen is still shaky, as Huascar Brazoban has not impressed since his acquisition and Reed Garrett has not looked like his early season self since returning from the IL. I could see those two being sent down if they have options and Dedniel Nunez (R) and Danny Young (L) coming back up. The other roster spot on offense can be filled in a few different ways. I would like to see LuisAngel Acuna come up to enhance the base running speed on this team. He is a good defender, can play middle infield and outfield positions, and will change the dynamics of a game whenever he is on base. The question is, can he get on base? His .263 batting average and .310 OBP probably don’t translate very well to a MLB lineup. If not Acuna, then who else? It should be an infielder or DH because with Starling Marte’s return the Mets have a very strong group of five outfielders. Acuna is the best bet amongst the AAA infielders. There are no offensive standouts on the Syracuse team that plays in an offense friendly International League, so I don’t see a better option.
Plan B: This may be more amenable to the longer term strategy of evaluating and developing the younger talent. In the bullpen, Ottavino and Garrett seem to be on their last legs as Mets. Why not replace them now with some younger arms that need to prove what they can do against MLB bats. Mike Vasil and Dom Hamel struggled earlier in the season but have come on stronger lately – I think they should be worth a look. Send Brazoban down for some work and bring up Nunez as soon as he is ready. On offense, I still think Acuna is the best bet. He has not taken any reps at third base this season, but he has a skillful glove and a good arm. If this is the last year for JD Martinez, then it is time to install Mark Vientos as the permanent DH and let Acuna man third. Martinez has been great for the club this year as a teammate and has shared helpful batting tips, but frankly a .256/.342/.445 line is not going to propel the club to a championship from behind. This change also sets up a healthy competition in the spring with Acuna, Baty, and Mauricio for the hot corner.
Time will tell which way this team will go, but time moves quickly and September first will be upon us very soon.
10 comments:
Excellent analysis, Paul. I have one question about the post-9/1 situation:
Are the callups "frozen", or flexible?
If the latter (as I suspect), a player with options can be called up for a spot start, then sent down to make room for another. If so, I could see Megill getting that call in case Q continues to struggle.
Options are double-edged, though. If a player who hasn't been called up and sent down goes through that process, it would cost a year of his options. This wouldn't affect Megill's status, but it would affect Acuna, Sproat and others.
I don't believe there are any restrictions on the September call-ups other than the standard rules for how many options a player has.
Winning solves everything. 7 games now against hot AZ and SD. The “playoffs” start now. Win at least 4 of those 7. Good thing the Braves are damaged. But other teams are not so far out in the WC. People pick on JD, but Alonso is a prime culprit. He is hitting .214 with low power in 118 ABs with RISP. In 67 at bats in “late and close” situations, he has 10 hits (.149) and 6 RBIs.
He is hitting .333 (20 for 60) when the game run margin is 4+ runs.
JD’s 61 RBIs in 348 at bats are not bad. His RISP average is .304. He is 70 points higher than Pete in “late and close”. JD’s RBI #s would be right there with Pete if JD had not missed the first 4 weeks and had just 1 RBI heading into May. An excellent 60 RBIs since May 7, in 83 games. Compare to Mets’ dismal DH production last year.
Paul, Acuna is looking more and more like a bench player to me. As far as Vientos becoming the permanent DH, I don't think the Mets would get the same production. Young players like Vientos enjoy playing the field and I don't think Vientos would like being just a DH. Take into consideration that Vientos was a worse fielder last year and after spending time with Lindor over the winter has done better. There is nothing to suggest that he couldn't get better if he continues to train with Lindor on a yearly basis. But he is going to be the 1B next year anyway where he is a better fielder than Alonso.
In my view, Vientos is not an instinctive 3B, or even infielder for that matter. He has limited range so he would have to play on the corners. He has improved, but I think that for the Mets to be a championship level team they need more than adequate around the infield. His bat has earned him a spot in the lineup.
Great Article thanks! I think and hope the Mets will remain in the wild card hunt, and prioritize a extra bullpen arm to get to 14 Pitchers, Adding Danny Young will give you the one LH in the pen to neutralize lefty batters on the first Red Sox series ( Duran, Abreu, Casas, Devers) , and the other weapon would be a Pinch runner that represents a real SB threat in late and close game situation Acuna and Bradley JR fills that criteria.. Happy Thursday
Regardless of 1st or 3rd, Vientos’ 20 HRs in 79 games make him fine at either position for me. I am with Viper. No to giving him a DH role. Even if Mark’s range and instincts at 3rd fall a bit short, he is not making errors this year. Just 3, pretty incredible.
DH is for old players or players that get hurt a lot, have leg problems, etc. Hummmm, that sounds like Marte should be the 2025 DH and McNeil the RF. In 2025 Vientos 1B, Mauricio 2B, SS Lindor, Baty (last chance)/Acuna 3B?.
That would be a good look Viper. But now Winker adds another piece to consider. He had not shown much between his arrival and the big walk-off last night, but his history says he should be hitting and bringing some power. He also appears to have a great eye at the plate. If you do put Marte in a DH position in 25, and Winker wins the job in RF, then there is a crowded IF.
Viper, I would not weep if they bring back Iggy as a 2B/3B piece to get 300+ ABs.
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