MACK - MY Sunday Observations

Good morning.

I told you that I predicted big things for pitchers Jonah Tong, Will Watson, and Eli Ankeney this season. We now move on to my favorite bats.

Frankly, I’m not that high on the prospects the rest of you prop up. I expect no bat to crack the Mets 2026 starting lineup, other than Luisangel Acuna if he is sent to play in Syracuse this season.

I like Jesus Baez and Nick Morabito at the next level, but I’m not confident enough to predict either of them as my Bat of The Year.

My runner-up is outfielder Carson Benge. Benge was the Mets first round pick in the last draft (1.19), out of Oklahoma State. He didn’t play much pro ball last year (55-AB for St. Lucie), but he hit .273/.420/.436/.857. His overall OPS at all levels (pro and college) is currently 1,030. Everyone that has been part of his game last season is very impressed with him so far. My guess is they fast pace him to Brooklyn and have him finish 2025 in Binghamton.

My predicted minor league bat is catcher/DH/1B Ronald Hernandez. Th 21/year old made a name for himself last season at St. Lucie (387-AB, 5-HR, 45-RBI, .261/.355/.346/.701. He did wind up the season with a cup of coffee at Brooklyn, where he will start this season at. I look for big things from this 22/year old, who I predict will eventually frog jump Christopher Suero and will wind up the starting catcher in Syracuse for 2026.

Oh… did I tell you he plays first too?

Lastly, my helium alert goes out to RHSP Jack Wenninger. The Mets pick in the 6^th round of the 2023 draft looks like a great find out of the powerhouse (sic) University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. He’s 23/years old and pitched respectfully last season after graduating from St. Lucie and going to Brooklyn (10-games, 9-starts, 3.12, 43.1-IP 51-K, 32% CSW, 16% swinging strike rate). The fastball sits 92-94, topping at 96. 4-seam has 17” of IVP, thrown from his 6-5 height. Also throws 2-seamer and sinker with 14” of arm-side run. And then there is his go-to secondary pitch… the change. Mid-80s with 11-5 shape and heavy vertical drop. Lastly, his curve sits in the upper-70s and has his highest whiff rate.

A definite SP-3 starter this spring behind Jonah Tong and Nolan McLean in Binghamton. 

Outfielder Billy McKinney signed a minor league deal with the Mets.

The 30-year old was a big deal when Oakland drafted him with the 24^th overall pick in the 2013 draft, out of powerhouse Plano West HS (TX).

But…

It just hasn’t happened for Billy.

He hit only .200 last season. His career WAR is -0.1 (.209). An average fielder. Probably the most impressive thing he has accomplished is he has already wore eight different numbers on his uniforms.

He joins Gilberto Celestino, Jose Azocar, Alex Ramirez (boy, here’s a guy we’ve seen little of this spring…), and Rafael Ortega as full time Syracuse outfielder contenders (add Ryan Clifford, who might be held up for more B-Met bats or put on first base).

The Mets have acquired minor league outfielder Troy Schreffler from the Phillies. Schreffler can play all three-outfield position, but is played mostly in right and center.

The 24/year old was drafted by Philadelphia in the 15^th round of the 2022 draft, out of the University of Maryland.

He played A+ ball last season, with a stat line of 255-AB, 8-HR, 39-RBI, 20-BB, 80-K, .228/.296/.395/,692

He spent considerable time on the IL in 2024.

Offensive profile leans towards power. Approach is a line-drive hitter with gap-to-gap ability. Hit rating is a 50.

Power is fringy. 40-45. Does not project as much growth left in this area.

+ tool speed. 50-60 grade. Speed suggests he’s a capable defender. Arm only a 50.

Projects, at best, as a potential 4^th outfielder.

To me, this is a roster fill for Binghamton this season.

 

Mets have signed UTIL Diego A. Castillo to a minor league deal. This is not the successful American League reliever.

The 27-year-old played in four ML games for the Twins last year. He then played at the AAA level (.261/.364/.397) but then elected free agency. 

It has been a strange journey for Castillo. On January 5, 2024, the New York Mets claimed Castillo off waivers. One week later, the Mets designated him for assignment after signing of Sean Manaea. On January 19, Castillo was again claimed off waivers, this time by the New York Yankees, who then designated him.

Has minimal power, but good minor league track record. Can play all three infield positions. Has one option left.

I have him primarily playing third for Syracuse, replacing the graduating Brett Baty.

MLB insiders rank starting pitchers: Who’s ‘just a guy’ and who’s No. 1?

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6197907/2025/03/19/mlb-starting-pitcher-rankings-player/

Sean Manaea

Mets, LHP

For more than a decade, every left-handed pitcher has looked into a mirror and thought, “Maybe I should just rip off Chris Sale.” Last year Manaea became the first to actually succeed. After he started aping Sale’s sidewinder delivery, Manaea posted a 3.09 ERA in his final 12 starts, which was enough to convince the Mets to bring him back on a three-year, $75 million deal.

Before his impersonation act took hold, Manaea was a serviceable if limited pitcher. One executive noted that Manaea benefited from a .215 batting average on balls in play in the second half, the sort of number that is hard to sustain. He’ll also start the season on the injured list due to an oblique problem. “Adjustments from last year are real,” one scout said. “Health is a question.”

Seven New York Mets minor league arms to watch in 2025

https://www.si.com/mlb/mets/news/seven-new-york-mets-minor-league-arms-to-watch-in-2025

2. Nolan McLean, RHP [No. 5 ranked prospect]

Nolan McLean has soared up the hype board this spring, showing off a nasty arsenal with deceptive horizontal and vertical break on his secondary pitches. McLean was once a two-way player, but will focus on just pitching as of this season. Rightfully so, as he has been turning heads so far in camp. The 23-year-old McLean could start the year in Double-A again after making 18 starts there a season ago.

The Athletic - Which Mets prospects are poised to break out in 2025? Meet 5 under-the-radar candidates

 https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6192476/2025/03/11/new-york-mets-breakout-prospects-2025/?onboarded=true   (sub needed)

Edgar Moreta, RHP

Highest level reached in 2024: Low A

Moreta, 21, is this list’s most under-the-radar candidate. The Mets signed him from the Dominican Republic in 2022 for $10,000. In 50 innings (13 games, 11 starts) with Low-A St. Lucie last year, Moreta had a 5.04 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.

One number rival evaluators really liked, though, was his 8.7 percent walk rate, which was 3 percentage points better than the league average for that level.

“This guy just throws a ton of strikes,” Christie said.

Moreta’s stuff might be catching up to his control. Last year, his fastball averaged 91.3 mph. This year, while throwing a four-seam fastball and a two-seam fastball, he has averaged between 93 mph and 96 mph. He also throws a changeup and sweeper. He is working on adding a cutter. It wouldn’t be surprising if he reached Double A at some point in 2025.

Just Baseball - New York Mets Top 15 Prospects

https://www.justbaseball.com/prospects/new-york-mets-top-15-prospects/?s=03

Other Names to Consider

Daiverson Guitierrez – C – (Low-A): Signed out of Venezuela for $1.9 million in 2023, Guitierrez shook off a rough pro debut by hitting his way off of the complex in 2024, reaching Low-A by the end of the season. He improved his contact rates drastically, with above average exit velocities, giving him some intriguing upside offensively. He is raw behind the dish, but offers a good arm and the mobility to be a better blocker as he gains reps. He’ll begin his age-19 season in Low-A.

 Dominic Hamel – RHP – (Triple-A): It was a disappointing 2024 season for Hamel who went unselected in the Rule 5 Draft shortly after. His stuff backed up as the season progressed, with his command really faltering as well. At his best, Hamel offers an above average fastball and slider with a usable curveball and changeup. If he can regain his stuff and command, he could be a swingman or depth starter. 

Simon Juan – OF – (CPX): Signed by the Mets for $1.9 million in 2022, Juan was bad in his first two pro seasons, sporting an OPS right around .600 between the DSL and FCL. In his second crack at the FCL as an 18-year-old, Juan started to break through, producing a .796 OPS with seven home runs in 50 games. Juan has added strength, easily projecting for plus power, backed by his 90th percentile exit velocity of 105.5 MPH in 2024. It’s a matter of whether he can hit enough, but he is heading in the right direction as he gears up for his first full pro season at age 19.

Medium - The Really Big 2025 Mets Prospects Ranking

https://medium.com/@mdonodeo8/the-really-big-2025-mets-prospects-ranking-5c0fbaaa49f

12) Nate Dohm

Dohm was drafted in the third round in 2024, and has not pitched since, so for interests of my personal time I will copy and paste my write-up from the time of the draft:

“Dohm started his college career as a wild reliever at Ball State and then Mississippi State, where he moved to the rotation and dominated in non-conference play before experiencing forearm tightness and missing most of the remaining season.

His fastball has been up to 98 in relief, but as a starter sat 92–95 and topped 96. It’s a lower spin pitch but has an impressive movement profile with 18” vert (with college balls) from a lower 5.4’ release and good extension. Despite the movement profile that should play at the top rail, he mostly used the pitch low and away, something I imagine gets cleaned up very quickly in pro ball. He was in the zone a ton with the pitch, so I don’t anticipate this being an issue going forward. The most used secondary is a solid average slider that sits 83–87 with gyro/slutter shape at 2” vert and 4” sweep. Stuff-wise the pitch is playable but unspectacular, but he put it in good chase locations and was able to generate whiffs at a 40% clip. Getting it consistently 85+ would likely be necessary for it to profile as his main secondary in pro ball. Next is the changeup, a pitch that averaged an unspectacular 9” vert/12” run shape in the mid-upper 80s and didn’t perform very well, as it was rarely in the zone. It should be noted that a bunch of these changeups were clustered around 4” vert, so there’s opportunity for a more splitter-y shape if he can consistently replicate that movement. His last secondary is a curveball in the 79–82 range with fairly average movement in a vacuum. He didn’t use it much, and it would sometimes run together with the slider, but it got big whiff rates when he did. It could be an average pitch down the line.If the arm handles it, Dohm has a pretty exciting pitch mix for a starter. He has three usable or better pitches, headlined by a fastball that is at least a 55, and the locations have been very consistent, even if not perfectly optimized. Changeup refinements and the potential addition of another breaking ball could determine the ceiling.”

Scouting Grades: 55 FF, 50 SL, 40 CH, 50 CU, 55 command/control

Optimistic Comp: The fastball/slider combo is pretty Jack Flaherty-esque

 

13) Jonathan Santucci

Santucci was taken with the pick before Dohm but slides in just behind him, mostly due to confidence in Dohm’s fastball traits and command, but Santucci has very interesting upside in his own right. Like Dohm, he didn’t pitch after getting drafted, so let’s bring back mid-2024 Michael:

“Santucci entered the 2024 season with a lot of first round hype, and for good reason. At times, he looked like one of the best arms in the country, posting a 3.41 ERA in 2023 before being sidelined with a non-ligament elbow injury. However, injuries (the aforementioned elbow, as well as rib and back issues) along with on-and-off control kept him out of the first round. His 2024 season saw his ERA increase over the full year, but the whiff rate and FIP improved, and the K-BB remained very strong, even if they were not quite as dominant.

Stuff wise, it’s an intriguing profile. The headliner to me is the fastball. It sits 92–95 and gets up to 96.8 at its peak. It has solid carry from a slightly-below-average release, and the shape should play as solid average in pro ball.

From a whiff standpoint, his best pitch was the slider, a sort of gyro-y offering with -2” vert and 4” sweep at 82–85. In theory, the pitch should be harder to play without much sweep, but hitters whiffed at a 55% rate and having a platoon-neutral breaker is important for a lefty. I’d try to add a sweeper (something that fits a lot of guys on this list even if they don’t get into natural supination simply by nature of how good the Mets have been at adding them), but this pitch has a place in his arsenal, especially if the Mets tighten it up to a more pure gyro in the mid-80s. His third pitch is the changeup, which won’t pop on stuff metrics with solid 8/16 shape but little velo separation in the upper 80s, but could be an interesting offering due to how well he tunnels it off the fastball. The pitch gets used almost exclusively outside of the zone to the armside, which keeps it on the same plane as the fastball. This can create a lot of bad swings when hitters are fooled into thinking it’s a fastball, but if pro hitters spit on it more, it might become a lot more ineffective due to the very low zone rates. It should also be noted that most of his changeups, both in 2023 and 2024, were below this 8” vert mark, but he had a large cluster this season that didn’t drop much at all, which raised the average. Both secondaries performed well in college, so I’d see how they translate to pro ball before trying to adjust them, but it will be interesting to see which adjustments do eventually get made; for example, adding another breaking ball seems likely.

Santucci is a very interesting profile as a guy with a big fastball and secondaries that might be good, but this is the type of guy I like seeing modern player development systems work with. The delivery is athletic enough where some control improvements are in the cards if he can sync up the delivery a little better, and low-mid 90s velo from the left side is a great building block.”

Scouting Grades: 50 FF, 50+ SL, 50 CH, 45 control/command

Optimistic Comp: DJ Herz