Good
morning.
I’ve had
a “come to Jesus” moment regarding whether the Mets should bring Juan Soto to Queens.
The
primary reason is the number being floated around lately that must be reached
to bring ONE baseball player to the Mets.
$700,000,000.00
Are you
kidding me?
This
means that Steve Cohen would pay Juan Soto more that it will take to close the
border. I know he made a lot of money when the stock market went bonkers after
the election, but let’s say this figure represents a 10-year investment…
That
would be $70,000,000.00 a year.
What
would that buy you?
My guess
is that would get you two of the Big 3 starters (Burnes, Snell, Fried) plus two
quality relievers (say Carlos Estevez, Clay Holmes, or Tanner Scott)
Or one of
the Big 3, Sean Manaea, and two relievers
Or… one
quality starter, two quality relievers, and an outfielder like Anthony
Santander (44-HR, 102-RBI).
Or one
quality starter, two quality relievers, and Pete Alonso.
Lots of
options here for a team that has a number of holes to fill vs. a corner
outfielder that can’t field.
Sure, I
am going to miss his huge stat line, but frankly, I wouldn’t pay anyone in
baseball this amount of money per year. Not even some guy names Ohtani.
18 comments:
Lots of $$ indeed. I still would like the shiny object. My brother summarizes it thusly....I want more championships before I die. Can't say I disagree.
I saw Heyman floating the idea of trading for Carlos Correa. He seems to get hurt a lot, but is quite the player when he is not.
I hate paying anybody that kind of money for that long.
Tom
I would pass on Correa. You are right. He us more fragile then Mrs. Mack's Waterford
Rds.
I believe in two things:
Term limits on politicians
Term limits on baseball contracts
Mack,
Utilize that money to not only make the Mets competitive in 2025, but also for the next five years. Pass on any player at 700 million.
DJ
I recognize Soto's talent. I really do. But demands like this one from Boras needs to be rejected by all 30 teams
Mack we talked about this and I've done a 180 and agree with you it's too much for 1 player and yes defense is an issue and OMG if he gets hurt (see Acuna Ronald jr. and the Bravos have to be wondering what player they will be getting back after another lost year to a major injury and he's not making 70 mil a year for the next 10 .). A starter, pick one, 3 for the pen, Pete and Santander and let the kids develop next year. With this team we should certainly make the playoffs and that's w/o adding at the deadline.
Gary
Santander, Alonso, and a full season of Vientos would more than make up the loss of Soto power
It has been a long time since my jaw hit the floor upon reading something, but it did just now. That $700 is a mirage, it’s really $460 for ten years. Cohen can give him the same exact contract as Ohtani got…. If he wants a 14 year deal, as we have heard, and $700MM, as we have heard, that’s $50MM per year and a quick “no thank you, go to the Yankees”. It’s the Yankees that Boras knows have the noose around their neck. They traded five good players for this guy and now have the pressure of signing him. They will get screwed, not the Mets. Soto is a good player, but only one player. It takes 25 more to fill out a roster. I would love to see his market just collapse due to his demands.
I am and continue to be against signing ANY player for that kind of money. Yes, I know that it is not my money but it is the team I have rooted for all my life and tying that kind of money for that amount of time will hurt the team in the future.
You want a recent example of this? Verlander, Scherzer.
When you analyze what you can actually do with 600M+ on a team like the Mets, signing Soto doesn't make sense. You can get multiple top players that will easily outperform Soto stats while addressing most if not all of the Mets team needs for 2025.
Soto has never had more than 110 rbi's in any season and has hit 41 hrs only this year. Now, not trying to say that Soto would be bad for the Mets but rather that the money could be used more wisely.
Just for fun, go and check 2018 Stats for Soto and compare them to 2024 Mark Vientos stats.
Viper, I think the lower Soto RBIs correlate to his extremely high walk rate. Can’t driving runs if they don’t pitch to you
That sounds like the "C word" to me.
Collusion.
That part is a mystery to me. Why would opposing teams dish out walks to the guy hitting in front of the 50+ HR guy?
To sign someone possibly to 14 years until age 40 is a bad move. Look at JD Martinez, just imagine if we had him for another 3 or 4 years. Look at the bad contracts of 8 years or more that aged badly....Pujols, Cabrera, Trout A. Rod and Cano just to name a few. You are better off signing Alonso or waiting for Guerrero next year. Get 2 starters and 2 relievers this year.
Y'all have made great points and arguments for reasons not to sign him, but I am still not convinced. I do tend to agree with Mack that term limits on baseball contracts would be a great thing, but if you can get his AAV down in the $50M range for long term, or even a bit more for a shorter term deal, I am on board. It is not Soto's power numbers that I care about - it is his OBP and his relative slump free attributes. Also, as I posted in my piece last week, he scored almost half as many runs in the first inning alone than the Mets did as a team (33 vs. 67). His OPS in the first inning in 2024 was over 1.000. Wouldn't it be nice to have that bat to help get the Mets a lot more early leads? That intangible alone is worth a few mil.
His RBI totals are not high because the only slot in the lineup he hit in 2024 was #2. A one-two punch of Lindor-Soto would be something the Mets have not had in a long time, if ever.
R69, I am with you on Soto.
Dave, it is a mind-boggling $$ amount, but if it is a flat payout over 14 years, 2 things:
1) inflation will reduce the real cost of later seasons - a dollar in year 14 will be worth a lot less than in year one.
2) on a flat deal, you are being undercharged, in effect, in the early years. I'd say the first 6 years would on average be worth $70 million per year.
The last 8 years, value-wise, would total $280 million and, allocated in real value terms, in year 8, $50MM; years 9 and 10, $45MM each; year 11 and 12, $40MM each; year 13, $35MM; year 14, $25MM. A $25MM one-year contract in the year 2038, in todays' real inflation-adjusted dollars, would be "just" $12MM to $15MM.
We are talking about a guy that could perhaps get us to the World Series 5 times, and a ring 2 or 3 times. How much is that worth?
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