Reese Kaplan -- Craziness in the Proper Perspective

Every winter during the off season people throw the wildest ideas up into the air to see if an against the grain approach to improving the roster makes any sense at all.  We’re heard them year in and year out.  

Still, nothing of that magnitude ever seeming to take place.  Now if it’s a matter of signing a free agent it is usually just a matter of being the highest bidder.  When it comes to trades, however, it’s another ball game altogether.

With that preface, pretty much anyone with even a casual interest of the Mets have seen stories published that have suggested the Mets make a reunion with the one who got away — Jacob deGrom. 

Now, before you hurt a vocal chord shouting, “No!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!” at the top of your lungs, hear me out.  There is a germ of good reason and circumstantial timing that make this twisted transaction something to consider.

The Rangers have not been shy about spending money over the last several years but word has come out that they are officially entering a rebuilding phase and slashing payroll is going to be a big part of it.  

Right now the club has to be thinking that the five year $185 million dollar deal they signed with deGrom in December of 2022 may not have turned out as they’d planned.  On paper it made sense.  deGrom was a converted infielder who came up to become a primary New York Mets pitching weapon for several years.

After winning Rookie of the Year as a late blooming 26 year old rookie in 2014, he followed that up the following year with his first All Star berth and finished in the top 10 in Cy Young Award voting.  He then flourished, winning two Cy Youngs back to back in 2018 and 2019.  He went to the All Star game several times and by the time he’d completed his 9th season with the Mets his only problem had been health.  

He missed a lot of time and had some long term injuries.  His one “bad” year in 2022 had him cross the 3.00 ERA threshold for the only time in his career posting 3.08 for the 11 games he managed to start.

When he hit his free agency when that season ended no one knew exactly how much he was going to get from the Mets.  Then a funny thing happened and those folks in the DFW area waved an average annual pay of $37 million for the next five years and deGrom was flying south to relocate his family and his career. 

Now what did the Rangers get for that investment?  Well, frankly, not much at all.  In two seasons during which he went through another Tommy John surgery deGrom started just 9 games going 2-0 with an aggregate ERA around 2.00, but that’s not what they expected for the $74 million spent.  

He has three more years due on his deal worth $111 million.  Slashing payroll by getting out from under that contract would seem to make a great deal of sense.

The problem is that as good as his Hall of Fame worthy pitching is, the lingering questions about his health have gone from high to critical.  As a result no one is going to want to spend that kind of cash for a guy to make perhaps 15 starts per year. 

Now comes the perspective that many have not considered.  Maybe the best way to approach a prospective deGrom reunion to allow him to finish his career where he started it is for the trade proposal to send a lot of financial baggage over to the Rangers.

Take Jeff McNeil, for example.  He has $33.5 million still due in contract obligations for 2025, 2026 and a $2 million buyout for 2027.  If he was included in a deal to the Rangers their financial picture improves from a $111 hit with deGrom to a $33.5 million hit with McNeil.  That alone would give them a savings of $77.5 million.  The problem here is that McNeil had a bad year in 2023 and an awful one in 2024.  His value is not a health problem as much as it is one of productivity.

However, if he is the start of a deal which would have to be padded with a decent level prospect or wildcard (like Brett Baty) then the Mets’ salary obligation to deGrom would drop from $37 million per year to $25.83 million per year.  Now all of the sudden the prospect of bring deGrom back makes the accountants quite a bit happier.

You could sit here all day looking at combinations and permutations of contract dollars to foist off to Texas in order to roll the dice on deGrom pitching more than half his starts each year.  The fact is that when he’s on his game he is unbelievable.  

For a frame of reference if I told you he had a career ERA of 2.89 you’d say, wow, that’s Hall of Fame stuff.  He doesn’t.  That was Tom Seaver and he is in Cooperstown.  

deGrom’s career ERA is just 2.52!

So what do you all think?  Totally crazy or a shrewd gamble once he becomes more affordable?