Reese Kaplan -- Upcoming Roster Decisions Need To Be Made

While we have all spent innumerable hours (or pints) debating which free agents the Mets should sign and which high payroll players they should consider trading away as they shape the 2025 roster, the next group of players hasn’t gotten nearly as much attention.  In between the not-yet-eliigible for arbitration folks and the ones already secure with big contracts comes the niche of folks who can get arbitration this season.

Now one of the soon upcoming decisions for David Stearns and his staff to make is whether or not the club is better off non-tendering any of the players rather than accept the responsibility to pay whatever the arbiter feels that baseball professional is worth in real dollars.  

Let’s have a look at the people in this group and figure out who is here to stay, who is on the bubble and who has seen his bubble burst already. 

For purposes of this introductory analysis I’ve listed the players in reverse salary order with the highest up top and the lowest at the bottom.  The player’s name is followed by his current age in 2024, his projected salary, and the year in which free agent eligibility arrives.

• Paul Blackburn — Age 31, $4.4 million, 2026
• David Peterson — Age 29, $4.4 million, 2027
• Tyrone Taylor — Age 30, $2.9 million, 2027
• Tylor Megill — Age 29, $2.1 million, 2028
• Alex Young — Age 31, $1.4 million, 2027
• Luis Torrens — Age 28, $1.1 million, 2027
• Sean Reid-Foley — Age 29, $900K, 2028
• Dylan Covey — Age 33, $850K, 2027

OK, now that the essential facts are out on the table, now we start to consider each player by performance, health and how both of these variables match up with the price and determine whether the player is in the keep, still debating and who make be soon looking for a new employer.

Keep ‘Em

Heading off this list is David Peterson.  There were times this past season he and Sean Manaea battled for who was going to be the more dominant pitcher.  In Peterson’s favor this year was his health which had impacted his effectiveness over the past several seasons.  The off season surgery was apparently a success and finishing the year with an ERA of just 2.90.  

Yeah, many of us who had lumped he and Tylor Megill into the AAAA group now wear a proud mask of egg on our faces.  He’s most definitely a starting pitcher for 2025.

Given the dearth of prospects to be in the starting rotation for 2025, the by-baseball-standards minor salary requirement of $2.1 million makes Tylor Megill a necessary spare part, particularly when he is out of minor league options.  

It’s entirely possible that David Stearns reconstructs the roster with much more formidable hurlers, but until that happens your spare part is good to have.  He finished the year pitching to a 4.04 ERA which is actually a marked improvement over the past.

When Stearns brought Tyrone Taylor over along with Adrian Houser, many were wondering if he was only grasping ahold of folks he knew from Milwaukee.  Houser was rather quickly shown the exit door and Taylor stayed on the roster with top notch defense, good baserunning skills and occasionally an effective bat.  

Considering the club has Brandon Nimmo and Starling Marte as its only regular outfielders not named Jeff McNeil, Taylor earned himself an invitation back.

On the Bubble

Here we have the players whose performance or injury history makes you question whether or not keeping them is a better choice than simply saying goodbye and erasing that 2025 salary obligation.  In no particular order here you would have to put ex Yankee Luis Torrens in this group.  

He was a godsend to the club, hitting effectively and showing off quality defense when he came over as Francisco Alvarez’s backup, but as the season progressed his bat petered out.  

Still, for $1.1 million and hoping that Alvarez remains healthy, given his age it seems to me it makes more sense to keep him than it would to spend mega bucks on a free agent catcher who won’t want to sit 5 games per week.

Then there is the ever questionable health of Sean Reid-Foley.  The man has shown glimpses of talent in many seasons but he has just not been able to stay healthy.  His 2024 ended early on the IL once again, but you can’t ignore the paltry $900K salary given his numbers in this past season.  

Over 23 games of middle relief he struck out better than one per inning and finished with a 1.66 ERA.  Yes, the injury factor is always there but it seems more likely someone worth investing to stay ready in case he is healthy enough.

Lefty Alex Young was one of those players who came on board halfway through the season and finished with a credible 3.29 ERA over his 17 games.  He’s always had issues with walks but this season was one of the best of his career.  Still, it spoke volumes about who and how the Mets constructed their October roster.  The price is low at $1.4 million but the career history was never anything special.  He’s the very definition of on the bubble. 

Right hander Dylan Covey is a great unknown having been a major league free agent signee by David Stearns.  For his career he’s been flat out awful until this past year when in 28 games for the Phillies he posted a highly respectable 3.69 ERA.  

Was it him turning a corner or just an outlier?  We don’t know but for now the club needs bullpen arms and an $850K gamble is not too bad a risk despite his propensity to give up both a lot of hits and walks while never dominating with strikeouts.

Show ‘Em the Exit Door

Every now and then a transaction is made when you are left scratching your head wondering why.  Such is the case of former Oakland pitcher Paul Blackburn whose numbers did not match other A’s players like Chris Bassitt.  

When he arrived he confirmed this assessment and finished the year with an ERA of an unsightly 5.18 while not walking many but exhibiting no other positives.  

Now he is in a long term rehab situation after surgery and frankly it seems ill advised to spend $4.4 million to hope to get him back to pitching as he did in 2024.  Admit your better business sense is a higher priority than a fragile ego and wish him well.