Reese Kaplan -- Who Bet Blake Snell As the First Prime FA Signed?

If someone asked you to make a bet which top tier free agent would be the first to land, how many of you would have said Blake Snell?  Anyone?  Bueller? 

Much to everyone’s surprise the highly desired Snell just inked a five year deal with the (surprise, surprise) Los Angeles Dodgers to the tune of $182 million.  By my calculator that’s an average annual value (AAV) of $36.4 million per season for his age 32, 33, 34, 35 and 36 seasons.  While the magnitude of the contract is a little surprising, diving a little deeper you have to wonder if this contract was a good decision.

There’s no question Snell is one of the very top pitchers in the game.  Between the Tampa Bay Rays in 2018 and the San Diego Padres in 2023 he secured the Cy Young Award, one in each league.  With a career ERA of just 3.19 over a 9 year career is spectacular. 

Dig a little deeper, however, and you will see some major red flags.  Considering 9 full seasons (well, 8 if you leave out the COVID-shortened one), he has eclipsed 30 starts just twice.  That means of the 8 full season opportunities 6 times he did not.  Ummm...that’s a bit concerning. 

As a southpaw, it’s fairly common in major league baseball for development to occur a bit later rather than straight out of the gate as a rookie in 2016.  His first two seasons in Florida saw him go 11-15 over 43 starts with a combined 3.83 ERA, a WHIP close to 1.500 and he was walking way too many people.

In 2018, of course, all things came together and Snell went 21-5 with a sparkling ERA of just 1.89 while keeping his WHIP under 1.000 and he got the walks under control for the first time in the majors.  All was good and the future’s so bright you gotta wear shades...

Or not. 

As a follow up to that terrific award winning season he only appeared in 23 games, he held a losing record, the ERA jumped to 4.29 and the WHIP increased by over 25%.

As his career progressed you had to get accustomed to good games and bad games, lots of time off the field with injuries, but an ever expanding paycheck.  For a quick point of comparison, one Jacob deGrom has a career ERA of just 2.52, a 30-game over .500 record and similarly a lot of time on the IL. 

My point here isn’t to criticize the Dodgers for snagging one of the truly best pitchers available right now, but to question if he was the best available option.  By contrast, fellow free agent Corbin Burnes is a few years younger, pitches to a similar 3.19 ERA and has started 30 games every season but 2020 save for the year he did 28.  His control is stellar and his WHIP for his career is hovering right around 1.000.

It would seem to me that the youth, control and equal availability via free agency would have made Burnes the better choice between these two hurlers.  Of course, just as the Mets and Yankees often try to outdo one another, the Dodgers seemingly have a stronger similar relationship with the Giants as opposed to the nearer Angels or Padres.  Snagging the best pitcher who last played for San Francisco is a double gotcha for the folks in Chavez Ravine. 

Anyway, congrats to Blake Snell and the Dodgers for making the first major contract of the offseason.  I don’t consider the Yusei Kikuchi deal anywhere near the same magnitude. Oh yeah, there’s also that guy named Soto...