Remember 1969: Remember's Ramblings

 

Remember 1969: Remember's Ramblings

 

 Remember's Reminiscing – Volume 1, Article 4

November 05, 2024

After telling myself that I wasn’t going to join the “play General Manager” game this early in the off-season, I decided to enter the fray and talk about – what else?    Juan Soto and Pete Alonso. 

First, let’s talk about Pete.  Supposing the Mets had an opening for a first-baseman – perhaps theirs wasn’t performing up to snuff – think a couple of the last years of Dom Smith or Ike Davis.   They take a look at the free agents and there was a guy that was playing out there someplace for the last 6 years that never played in less than 150 games in a non-COVID year,  and for every 162 games averaged almost 700 plate appearances, 150 hits, over 40 home runs, over 110 RBI  and had an OPS over .850 and still hasn’t reached his 30^th birthday, would you want your team to take a look?     Heck yeah.   Let’s sign that Alonso guy.    He makes the line-up better.    And I have a sneaking suspicion that without a free-agency year to worry about, the best is yet to come for him.   

Let’s throw him a 6 year deal of $170M or so and see what he does with it.   In 6 years, he could be pushing 500 career home runs.   Showing him the New York love will pay off. 

Now on to the player who will get the most ink from now until he actually signs a contract – Juan Soto.  

This is a player that really has only one peer in baseball today – Shohei Ohtani, who last year commandeered a $700M deal from the Dodgers and while never playing the field showed that he deserved it.     That does not automatically say that Soto will step in and be the league MVP every time he steps on the field, but in the greatest baseball market in the country with one of the richest owners in baseball and significant dollars coming off the books after 2024, this is as close to a must-have player as free-agency has ever delivered. 

My arguments for signing Juan Soto:  

·         Soto turned 26 years old less than two weeks ago.   

·         He has amassed 36.4 bWAR before his 26^th birthday.

·         On his current projection, he will have over 100 bWAR before his 40^th birthday    

·         His career OPS in 7 major league seasons is .953

·         His career on base percentage in seven major league seasons is .421

·         He has walked more than he has struck out in his career, including in each of the last 5 years

·         He has played at least 150 games every season since 2019. 

·         His longest hitless game streak in 2024 was 3 games.   He is not a particularly streaky hitter who is prone to long term slumps.

·         There is no other hitter available (and very few throughout baseball) who is as complete a hitter as Soto. 

·         He is a proven hitter in the post season. 

·         He has proven he can play in New York.

·         There are no imminent (or even anywhere on the horizon) obvious offensive superstars in the system that will be major league ready anytime soon.

·         The Mets swung and hit a proverbial homer with a big contract to Carlos Beltran 20 years ago.   

·         The Mets swung and hit another proverbial homer with a big contract to Francisco Lindor 3 years ago.

·         Why not do it again?   The numbers are bigger and more mind boggling, but so are the accomplished stats. 

Another plus to be considered:   The Mets were a poor first inning team in 2024.   Their batting average, OPS, and runs scored total saw the first inning be the second worst of any of the nine, second only to the wildly statistical anomaly of the seventh inning.    The Mets scored just 67 runs in the first in 162 games this year.   Soto alone scored 33 runs in the first inning this year with 32 walks, a .317 BA (compared to the Mets .221),  .455 OBP and 1.041 OPS.    Adding a number 2 hitter with those kinds of game opening statistics would help the starting pitchers immensely.   Jumping out to a first inning lead is a big deal. 

A top four line up of Lindor, Soto, Nimmo, and Alonso with Alvarez, Vientos, McNeil … behind them would be among the best in baseball.

OK, now the downsides:     

·         His defense.   He has less than all-star defensive stats, although his numbers in right field are somewhat better than those in left.   

·         His remarks following the World Series that were interpreted by many as being classless, saying the words out loud that are so well known in baseball.   A player is going to follow the money.      I suppose he might have been able to say it a little differently, but I cringe when I hear some of the questions that are asked of players.  I don’t have the entire conversation, but he was certainly being honest.  

·        Commenter Dallas in an initial piece on Juan Soto written by Mack last week made the following excellent statement:  “Obviously Soto is a special player but he isn’t without his warts. He can barely field. Do we know how he is in a club house? His work ethic? His love of baseball? I assume Stearns and team will do their homework on all of this and make the right choice.”    

·        I do not know the answers to the questions and will also assume that the front office and ownership team will find out and be comfortable that Soto would not destroy the culture that has been developed in the clubhouse – by all accounts the Mets were a tight-knit group in 2024.   That chemistry is clearly important.    I do have to believe his work ethic is top notch – one cannot perform at the top of the game that long without putting the work in.    

Two other more whimsical reasons to approach Soto this fall:  (1)  Brett Baty is the guy that would wear #22 if Soto is not signed (and I am still a fan of Baty), and (2)  The only other player that has played for the Mets that was born on October 25 is Pedro Martinez, a Hall of Famer.    Let’s go for two!    

I don’t know what it will take to sign Soto (and Alonso), but let’s play big market team and come up with a competitive offer.   If, like Yamamoto last year, he chooses to sign elsewhere, oh well, but don’t be shy.   Perhaps a two-tiered offer could be made – a long-term 14 year $700M deal ($50M per) or a shorter 8 year $450 - $480M offer to bump the AAV to $55M to $60M and then give him a chance for another contract at age 34 at the market prices of 2033.     Ohtani’s contract set a bar for $$ now, and with the game flush with money, that will be the going rate for superior talent. 

Today’s Mets Birthdays

Jim Bethke and Jose Santiago are celebrating birthdays today.   Brock Pemberton and Mike Bishop, both deceased, were also born on November 5.    I was going to try to write a bit about Mike Bishop, only because he was the closest of these four in age to me – he was born the same year I was, but I could find very little information about him, other than he died at a very young 46 years of age.    Mike caught 3 games with the 1983 Mets going 1 for 8 at the plate with a double being his only major league hit.  He did walk three times and scored 2 runs.   

Another recent birthday to highlight is that of Carlos Mendoza who turned 50 yesterday, a little more than 5 years older than the current manager of the same name who will be turning 45 in about 3 weeks.   The player Mendoza appeared in 15 Mets games as a 22 year old in 1997, 7 of them as a pinch runner, 5 as a pinch hitter and just 3 on the field as a left fielder and center fielder.    He finished his career with a line of 3 singles in 12 at bats, 4 walks, 2 hit by pitch and 6 runs scored.   He accumulated a positive 0.2 bWAR.     

Remember's Final Ramblings

This is going to be a long couple months.   We will hash and re-hash and then re-hash again the potential signings and the whys and why nots.    February can't come soon enough, and not because I live in upstate New York!       That's all for now.    Happy Election Day!