Remember 1969 - Remember's Ramblings

 

Remember 1969: Remember's Ramblings

 

Remember's Reminiscing – Volume 1, Article 6

November 19, 2024

 Today’s Birthdays

I will continue the birthday theme since I don’t have much of anything new to add to the hot stove conversation at this point.    There are just two Mets with birthdays on November 19:  Michael Tonkin and Francisco Alvarez.   Since I don’t see any way Michael Tonkin would generate much conversation, I’ll wish him a Happy Birthday and then ignore him for the rest of the article.    Let’s talk about our current starting catcher who is turning 23 today.   

 

I’m going to turn this into a reader comment interactive piece by posing a few questions:

 

a  a)    What will Francisco’s season be like in 2025?   And extrapolate that out to a career – what will his stat sheet look like when he is all done?  

    b)    He is under team control through the 2028 season with arbitration eligibility in 2026.   What path should the Mets take with his contract? 

 As long as I am here, I’ll take the first stab:

 (1)    I am optimistic that he had a learning year in 2024 and he will be the hitter we have all been wishing for in 2025.  Depending on who they get to protect him in the order (Soto?   Alonso?),  I am thinking .260/30 to 35 homers/90 RBI is a good target.  For his career, I think perhaps Yadier Molina or Salvador Perez might be a good comp for a floor with Pudge Rodriguez or Mike Piazza being a (big) stretch as the ceiling.   I seriously doubt he could get to Pudge numbers (68.7 bWAR and .292 lifetime BA) but he is just turning 23 today  😊

     (2)   I think with a good start to 2025, a 6 or 8 year buyout of his arbitration years and a few years of his late twenties would be a nice all-star break deal.   I don’t think he’ll get a Tatis type 14 year deal as a catcher. 

 

Comment away with your projections for the now 23 year old!   Happy Birthday Francisco!