Ol' Elmer Hunted Hares, Not Tortoises. Hares Can Be Injury-Prone.
Remember that old tale, where the slow tortoise beat the speedy hare?
So it is also, many times, in this here game of baseball.
Injuries are part of the game, but prudent players realize they are not indestructible and avoid undue risks. Otherwise, developing players lose development time in their age-limited careers. The goal should be to develop and stay healthy.
Jett Williams, who had a fine 2023 first full season at age 19, said prior to 2024 that his goal was debuting in the majors in 2024, but he played in just 11 games with AA Binghamton before going on the IL and eventually needed wrist surgery that cost him the majority of the season.
To extend his season, and make up some of his plate appearance deficit, he was assigned to play Arizona Fall baseball. Between his regular season and Arizona, he was up just 248 times, just 46% compared to 2023, when he got up 534 times.
The ONE THING I want our prospects to not do is end up with reckless injuries in inconsequential game action, such as an AFL game. If I want that, how much more should they want it?
It was therefore distressing to see Mets No. 1 prospect Williams come out of yesterday’s final regular season Arizona Fall League game after crashing into the wall while playing center field.
Apparently, he injured his ankle and was limping badly coming off the field, but the early word was that they are optimistic he is OK. Fine if it works out that way, but why are you running into a wall in essentially a meaningless game? What if the injury turns out to be worse? It not only affects him, it could affect his marketability.
He could easily be a trade piece to get Garrett Crochet, after all. Being damaged goods can lower trade value.
In a NY Post article this spring, David Stearns said the wrist injury stemmed back to this spring. Which was vague. If I were to speculate about how he got hurt, it could have been an injury from a head-first slide, or perhaps just a wear-and-tear injury, but how many players do you know who've gotten wrist surgery that does not involve an HBP? Few.
Injuries can diminish trade value, and career development and career value. Brandon Nimmo learned that when he crashed a wall in 2019 and missed a lot of time with a bulging disk. He realized his baseball mortality and adjusted. What if it became a chronic and impairing injury? No $160 million subsequent contract is a safe guess.
Jett and two Arizona teammates, Drew Gilbert and Jacob Reimer, who missed a ton of time in 2024 due to bad hammy injuries, were in the AFL for one primary reason, to get Arizona at bats to make up for the 1,000 or so the trio missed out on during 2024 due to their injuries. A second important goal was to leave the Cactus fall league healthy and show that they could stay healthy.
Jett failed to hit very well, but then could have at least finished healthy, but risked serious injury colliding with a wall in a low importance game. Hopefully he fully heals from it quickly. But injured players lose value quite often, until they can prove the injuries are an aberration.
It was one of the things I hated about Juan Lagares. He was TOO reckless, and it got him hurt for extended stretches multiple times.
One time, off the top of my head, running into a fence in a game the Mets trailed by something like 9 runs, and then needing foot surgery. You're down 9 runs, why take chances?
It makes me appreciate a tortoise like Pete Alonso and a Francisco Lindor so much more. They both realize they need to stay healthy and available to be on the playing field every game. My guess is that after Pete, in his first and second pro years, lost a lot of time due to unavoidable wrist HBP broken bone injuries, he realized that missing time was incompatible with his career goals, and he rarely has missed games after he healed from that second injury.
It is also HARD to plan your roster around injury-prone players. Can they depend on Jett and Gilbert to stay healthy in 2025? No guarantees, of course, but for the duo to show the ability to avoid reckless injuries?
Drew Gilbert in his Astros minors post-draft pro debut season ran into a wall on August 13, 2022 after 32 at bats and missed the rest of that season. This year, he strained his hamstring in an April game, stayed in, and reportedly really hurt it when he then ran down to 2nd base. It cost him 3+ months. Running into a fence and not coming out when a hamstring is hurt may seem macho, but it is reckless. My guess is the latter injury, particularly, cost him a major league call up in 2024. Injuries have consequences.
I do not know how Jacob Reimer severely injured his hamstring in the spring, it might well have been one of those unavoidable things, but his recovery time was so long, he was limited to 163 total plate appearances through 11/14, including in Arizona, in 2024.
With Mauricio in winter ball last year, he played there because he wanted to keep improving at the plate and in the field (fine), but everyone already knew you could steal, so don't risk that by trying to steal in winter ball. You are there to work on your hitting and fielding, NOT your base stealing. So, Ronny tried to steal second, blew his MCL, and blew his 2024 season.
It appears we are not even sure he will be ready for the start of spring training 2025!
Elsewhere, look at the brilliant Ronald Acuna, whose MCL woes are a flashing warning sign to him about stealing lots of bases, and Ohtani needing shoulder surgery after a steal-related injury? And David Wright may have shortened his stenosis-impacted career by trying to steal so much, a question only he could answer. Mike Baxter saved Johan Santana's no-hitter, at the cost of his own career, when he got injured running into a wall to catch a long drive?
My take? If I was a minor leaguer, I'd want to impress with my hitting, and to develop my other baseball skills. Fielding, obviously, and base stealing skills if I was a speed guy.
But, I think the Mets should stress to their high level prospect minor leaguers the wisdom of avoiding needless injuries. So, for instance, the Mets know Jett Williams can steal bases in great quantities. But does he, during the rest of his minor league career, need to continue to try to steal 50 bases, which increases risks of a knee, ankle, or hand injury and IL stints that could diminish his ability to become the best player he can be? If I am, on the other hand, a player on the fringe who is trying to gain attention in my quest for the majors, you have to take greater risks.
Why not, Jett, instead plan to steal 15 or 20 bases to keep that skill sharpened without bodily overuse? Then, when you reach the majors, where it counts, go back to stealing as much as you normally would.
What do you folks think?
5 comments:
I have a few thoughts on Jett but I will save them as part of my Sunday Morning p I st
I expect hope the Mets do not trade for Crochet.
I don’t want players losing their aggressiveness. I don’t want to see a player learn to tone it down because when you lose that edge that pushes you a little bit more, you aren’t getting it back.
These players got here through a lot of drive and hard work over many years. Now that you almost achieved the goal how can you turn it down? Need to learn to play smart awhile maintaining that drive. I would guess that is difficult.
Gus, the counterpoint is Juan Soto is up for huge bucks, mostly because he is skilled, but also because he did not lose time injured in the minors running into walls, and in the majors has been an iron man. If I am Gilbert, I am now 24, could have been in the majors already, and probably have lost a year of prime-age MLB time, which ultimately (if all goes well) will reduce his free agent haul in several years. And, even more obviously, if I get to the majors a year later, I miss out on a year's MLB salary. So, if I am a team's top prospect, I have that conversation with the team, on how to not go all out in stealing and outfield acrobatics. If I am a prospect hitter in the 20-30 range, I am all-out reckless to try to do enough to impress. I think the same line of thinking can apply to top prospect pitchers. I don't mind if they talk to the team and consciously throw a lot more of the pitches they are weak in to get them MLB ready. Sproat, for example, has a mediocre curve, they say...throw it a lot more, and who cares if you are 5-10, 5.00 in AAA as a result, it is about eliminating weaknesses quicker and getting to the majors sooner. If I'm a Parada, I am going to talk to a Jeff McNeil, who has expertise in 2 strike choke-up hitting. All about getting to the majors faster.
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