With all of the back and forth regarding Pete Alonso and his lack of an active market for his services as a slugger, a few things have become clear. The obstacle in the negotiations appears more to be about total money as it aggregates over the greatest number of years.
As a refresher, remember that the Mets offered Alonso initially 7 years for $158 million which works out to an AAV of $22.5 million which for a guy who’s had three straight years of offensive decline is seemingly a reasonable number. He turned it down.
Then came the newer number first revealed by Carlos Baerga. In this proposed offer the number would be 3 years at $90 million with opt outs after each season. The AAV jumps all the way up to $30 million which would make him the highest paid 1st baseman in the game but the total drops by $68 million. In addition, they are two-way opt outs so it could be as little as a single year commitment of $30 million if Alonso tanks in 2025. He turned that one down as well.
Reports surfaced in media that the latest stretch is 4 years and $108 million. That is an AAV of $27 million. On the plus side it is $4.5 million per year more than he would have gotten if he’d taken the initial offer but it still falls $50 million short of that previous contract total. Word is that Alonso and his agent Scott Boras don’t like this approach either.
It’s fairly clear from the Mets front office perspective what is going on. They don’t want to tie up so much money into one player for another hyper length contract after just doing so with the much younger and more productive Juan Soto. Towards that end Stearns and Cohen likely feel they are in the driver’s seat which would force Alonso to swallow hard and take what’s offered or go find work with another ball club.
The unanswered questions to ponder during this soap opera of will he or won’t he is what the Mets do for an infield configuration at the corners. It seems that there are 7 obvious configurations up in the air:
Alonso at 1B, Vientos at 3B
Well, the same old, same old got them within 2 games of the World Series last year and no one could really squawk if there is a repeat of the corners for 2025 which now includes Juan Soto in the lineup.
Vientos at 1B, Bregman at 3B
This argument is an interesting one because Vientos has extremely limited experience as a first baseman. Bregman is a Gold Glove quality corner man at third base. The issue here is the money Bregman wants. Like Pete Alonso, in his mind he’s looking for his last contract of a long term totally over $200 million. Like Pete Alonso, it certainly appears he will not get it. Bregman is in the latter part of his career and his numbers have declined since his prime. Figure with better protection he’d be booked for about 25 HRs and 90 RBIs to go with his glove. That’s good, but not quite at the magnitude of Pete Alonso and for argument’s sake the same money.
Vientos at 1B, Arenado at 3B
This one is also interesting in the same way given Arenado’s superior defensive skills that accompany a top level bat. His welcome in St. Louis appears to have vanished and they are currently on the hook for the remainder of his contract from 2025 through 2027 for a total of $74 million.
While this number is certainly lower than the 3 years and $90 million offered to Alonso, it’s not chicken feed and you’re looking at a guy playing during his age 34, 35 and 36 seasons. Also you need to either have the Cardinals pay down significantly on this contract to make a trade happen AND you need to give up most likely minor league resources in your upper echelon to make it happen.
Arenado’s numbers have slumped a bit but still figure 28 HRs and 95 RBIs with a .285 average to go with a career metric of ten straight years with a Gold Glove is certainly more than respectable. The less money the Cardinals put into a salary buydown the lesser the value of the trade prospects.
Vientos at 1B, Mauricio at 3B
Remember Ronny Mauricio? Yes, he has power. He has speed. Theoretically now he once again has health. It had appeared he’d be fighting Brett Baty to play third base when people looked ahead to the 2024 season but the injury happened and now has a missing season on his baseball card. At his best in the minors Mauricio is indeed interesting with as many as 26 HRs in a season and as many as 24 SBs. He did it at a .268 minor league career batting average. Think of him as a speedier version of Eduardo Escobar. Mauricio is good but not great and still unproven in the majors.
Vientos at 1B, Acuna at 3B
Ah, now here is a very interesting option. If Jeff McNeil is still around then he owns second base and Francisco Lindor owns shortstop. Acuna at 3rd base is not exactly the model most teams have for a corner man, but he’s shown the ability in the minors and now as a finalist for a Winter League MVP award that he can hit for average, show better power than you would anticipate from someone of his more petite size and can run like the wind. While he is probably more well suited long term for second base, right now it’s third that may need filling and a 15 HR/40 steals guy who can hit over .280 is interesting indeed.
Vientos at 1B, Baty at 3B
Ah, you knew this one was coming. Brett Baty has tanked in each of his major league playing opportunities, but extrapolate his home run display from 2024 to a full season’s worth and he’d be somewhere between a total of 35 and 40.
The question is has he finally figured out the long ball swing at the expense of batting average? Has his defense gotten any better as what he’s shown at Citifield thus far is shudder-worthy. This option might actually have more merit than some of the others as it gives the Mets one last chance to have Baty show 29 other teams what he’s capable of doing. At best they keep him around. In the middle if he has a nice start he becomes a midseason trade option. At worst he’s a non-tender candidate at year’s end.
New acquisition at 1B, Vientos at 3B
Not much attention has been paid to alternative first basemen out there now that most of the top picks have already secured new employment. The free agent market is pretty slim with Justin Turner, Connor Joe, Donovan Solano, Anthony Rizzo and Joey Gallo heading up the small prizes still available in the cereal box. A trade is of course possible but if there’s any merit to a 2026 pursuit of soon-to-be free agent Vlad Guerrero, Jr. then why would they want to lock themselves into someone with a longer term future?
So what do you think? After all the brouhaha over these Alonso negotiations what do you think is the mostly likely scenario for the 2025 corners?
16 comments:
I am glad I do not have to make that decision.
Fangraphs for LA Acuna has him hitting just .249, 5 HRs, 27 RBIs, with 12 steals in 60 games. That feels a lot more like the season he will have for the Mets. Mauricio they have for just 34 games, .248, 5 HRs, 17 RBIs. The two combined are projected at a .295 OBP. Basically, two mediocre break-in years.
Can I present another option?
Arenado at 3rd, Bregman at Second and Vientos at first?
Trade McNiel, Baty and Tidwell for Arenado.
I also believe Bregman played second base in college before being moved to the hot corner.
This also leaves the option of switching Vientos to DH next year and getting Vladdy Daddy and also moving Bregman back to hot corner when Arenados Contract is up.
We will also have an embarrassment of riches in the minors available to trade at deadline as well.
Wow Reese that's quite the list. The only option that appeals to me is to sign Alonso. Those numbers projected for Acuna, Baty and Mauricio are scary bad.
What scares me the most is that we are banking on Vientos to make the transition to 1B. Why does everyone think he can handle that so easily? What if he flat out stinks at 1B... we are screwed.
His footwork at 3B is not that good, it is much more important at 1B. We don't have too many solid options. This has me worried.
I am on the record of the Arenado/Vientos combination if they cannot come to an agreement with Alonso. It is felt that Bregman's bat will not play in NY and will experience a considerable decline. Baty may have the ability but in NY? Acuna, no. Bat doesn't play at third. Mauricio, needs to reestablish himself after a missed year. I am not on the Vlad wagon for next year.
If the rumors are correct, we are only looking at a three year window with either Alonso or Arenado. Both will allow the team to pivot next year with third, first and DH as needed.
Zozo, I was going to mention an Arenado trade myself. Your trade is a good one. I would do it if they kicked in 5/7m per season.
I would forget Bergman because he wants more than Pete, plus we have about six 2B already. My hope is that Jet Williams turns into very good player at 2B or CF. I can envision at top 3 of Lindor, Acuna, and Soto for many years to come.
Vientos has played a number of games at first the last couple years at AA and AAA. I believe, based on the fact he spent considerable time with Lindor last winter working on his defense at third, he will devote the same effort to playing first. Granted, he will not win a gold glove at third, but it can be argued that his play was better than anticipated. The Mets needed to get the decision made so that Vientos can properly prepare for the season ahead.
I did not know that about Vientos, thanks for that tidbit Steve. It makes me feel a little better.
I’m still in the camp of trading for Yandy Diaz if we don’t sign Pete & keeping Vientos at 3B. Only his second full year & he needs to hit solid again - don’t think it is wise to make him learn a new position on a WS contract ding team.
I really hope they can return Pete to the Mets. He loves NY and the fans love him. His bat is needed in the lineup. That said, Stearns/Cohen are justified in the offers they are making. You can't pay Pete more than Freddie Freeman because Freddie is a better first baseman all around. I get that Pete wants to cash in on a payday that he feels he has earned, but I don't see other teams jumping on that risk, so his best option is to take the best that the Mets offer.
2018: McNeil comes up and hits .329 in half a season. Then they hire Brody Van Waganen and he trades for Cano and signs Lawrie because McNeil is unproven.
2024: Vientos comes up and hits 24 homeruns in a bit more than half a season, with good counting numbers and is clutch. Let’s move him, it’s not enough of a sample.
We hear a lot about what Fangraphs projects. Has anyone checked their accuracy rate? I wonder what they "projected" for our '84 team.
With all of these possibilities, one thing is certain---
The longer the Pete situation drags on, the more the options shrink. It's time for David to push for a cutoff date. "This is our final offer. If you don't agree within xxx days, the offer is off the table and we move to Plan B".
IBID.
This team is not all that far from a championship caliber squad. The best way to complete it is to have Alonso at first and Vientos at third. Unfortunately, Baty has lost his chance (I have been a Baty fan since his Binghamton days).
One more bullpen arm would complete things. Stanek is my choice, although another lefty arm might be necessary. I am probably higher on Danny Young than any of the rest of the writers or commenters on this site; he had quite a good year last year and could come back with the same.
I am not worried about the starting staff.
Bill, for the 1985 team, my then-boss, a Mets fan, asked me how many games they’d win. I said 105. He said I was nuts. I was nuts…they won 108.
Zozo? Not bad.
Right number, wrong year
😁
But my question was about the success rate of FanGraphs ' projections. I give credence yo those (like David) who have track records of success.
I'd do the same for Fangraphs if I knew theirs.
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