Reese Kaplan -- Run Prevention Without Top Two Options

Well, you can start with any of the various improvement topics for the Mets and veer off into an unhinged rant du jour.  We could go over injuries, personnel selection, poor coaches, unresponsive front office or any other reason that the season went off the rails.

Today, however, we will focus on the David Stearns comments about run prevention.  There are two ways to approach what he meant.  Do you improve the pitching which was among the worst in the league last season under the tutelage of since fired Jeremy Hefner or do you focus on improving the defense which was clearly not formidable?

On the latter, let’s take a brief look at a few obvious free agent and trade candidates who could improve the run prevention defensive alignment and see whether or not these changes make sense.  We’ll start with the elephant in the room...

Alex Bregman is very much a professional baseball player.  He helped convert the Astros into a contending team with his bat, his glove and his attitude.  When he jumped ship to go to the Red Sox last year he was awarded a massive $120 million three-year contract with an opt out.  Rumor has it that he’s going to exercise that clause and see if he can make a longer and stronger financial future for himself and his family.

In his best year back in 2019 he was totally awesome.  He hit .295 with 41 HRs, 112 RBIs and racked up an 8.9 WAR rating while finishing second in the MVP race.  Before then and since that remarkable year he’s strung together a number of impressive metrics while fielding at an elite level. 

What’s puzzling, however, is his first year in Boston.  He had what for him is very much an off year, hitting .273 with 18 HRs and 62 RBIs.  Does that sound like $40 million in value?  It sure doesn’t to me.  Turning 32 for the 2026 season he’s probably got another 3-4 solid seasons left but it would seem to be a poor investment for someone entering the latter stage of his career and already earning far more than current Met Francisco Lindor.

The trade candidate whose name keeps coming up is the St. Louis Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado.  He’s gone from a long list of no-trade teams to a much more open attitude about finding a new employer in 2026 given his lackluster season that just concluded along with his employer’s losing record. 

During his Coors Field years Arenado’s bat was lethal.  From 2015 through 2019 he hit respectively 42, 41, 37, 38 and 41 HRs while eclipsing 100 RBIs five times (including three straight seasons hitting the 130 RBI mark).  Now everyone knows about the Coors Field affect enhancing offensive numbers so it was a reasonable assumption when he left for St. Louis that the numbers would dip.

His first three years for the Cardinals were stellar.  He hit 34, 30 and 26 HRs while driving in over 100 twice and achieving 93 RBIs in the third season.  Then the floor fell out.  In 2024 he fell to 16 HRs and 71 RBIs and this past year he dropped to just 12 HRs and 52 RBIs with the batting average scaled down to just .237. 

For 2026 he is paid $27 million though the Rockies chip in $5 million of that number.  For 2027 it drops to $15 million.  Going into his age 35 and 36 seasons that pay rate is not horrific but his hitting numbers may not justify his defensive acumen which saw him achieve 10 straight years of Gold Gloves playing third base.  Obtaining Arenado would cost players but perhaps not huge names given his two most recent bad years in a row. 

Of course, the other way to go is to hand the starting third base job to either Brett Baty or Ronny Mauricio since Jett Williams is not yet ready to advance to the major leagues and Mark Vientos has pretty much underscored in Sharpie the defensive problems the club is trying to fix.  Perhaps it is time to look beyond these two well known but flawed options available in free agency and trade.