Reese Kaplan -- Options Exercised and An Early FA Candidate

Well, the least well kept secrets among New York Mets players has now happened with both Pete Alonso and Edwin Diaz opted out their current contracts while unsurprisingly A.J. Minter opted in for his $11 million payday.  The Hot Stove season has truly begun and Daivd Stearns has a great many issues to resolve before Spring Training starts in February.

Right now you would fully expect both Alonso and Diaz to listen to what competitive offers they might receive from other ballclubs in order to have negotiation leverage when it comes to hearing return offers from Steve Cohen’s team.  Of the two it would seem that the long term deal for the closer will cost quite a bit less than the money desired by the slugger. 

Minter returning was not a surprise.  He missed pretty much all of 2025 due to injury and his market value would be likely for quite a bit less than what his contract would provide to him.  That’s not a complaint.  Minter is a terrific pitcher when healthy and the price the Mets are paying for his services seems consistent with the value he delivers. 

Also leaving are all of the free agent eligible players from the Mets.  Some might be asked to consider a Mets offer.  Most will not.  The Mets front office need to watch the 29 other ballclubs to see who they stand to lose to free agency and consider how they may or may not fit to supplement the very vacant Mets 40-man roster. 

One of the players whose name has come up quite a few times as a possible free agent fit for the starting rotation is the now former Philadelphia Phillies southpaw Ranger Suarez.  He’s been a solid contributor to postseason efforts launched for the past several years at Citizens Bank Park.

What kind of pitcher is he?  Well, when he’s right and available he is most surely an interesting option.  He converted from reliever to mixed use pitcher to full time starter.  In 2022 it was his first season as a regular starter and he’s followed that up in 2023, 2024 and 2025.  During those four years he pitched to a 38-29 winning record at a 3.59 ERA with a WHIP of nearly 1.300 per season and less than a strikeout per inning pitched.  His ending salary with the Phillies was $8.8 million.

On the surface most of these numbers are better than what the Mets received from their starting pitchers last season.  At a new contract rate perhaps in the low teens per year in salary it seems like a reasonable option.  However, as you delve a little deeper an issue immediately surfaces to make you question whether or not locking in Suarez is good business.

During these four seasons in the rotation he has made 22, 26, 27 and 29 starts.  A normal pitching load is about 34 starts.  Injuries have prevented him from taking on the projected duty for a starting pitcher.  How much time he would be available to the Mets as a prospective new employer is very much an open question. 

On the plus side Suarez has not yet turned 30 years old, so if you’re willing to accept the health risk then he would be a middle of the rotation type of starter at middle of the rotation pay for the next 3-5 years.  Is he better than David Peterson or Sean Manaea or Kodai Senga?  Possibly he would be a more consistent and an improvement over the first two while not knowing which Kodai Senga would return for the 2026 season he’s got ace level stuff when he’s on his game.

Long term pitching contracts are more prone to injury value-crushing than what typically happens when you engage hitters.  It has not been David Stearns’ approach to commit to more than three years for any pitchers and even at these shorter terms the Mets have learned that even the more conservative approach is not a guarantee for success either.  While folks at the top of the free agent list like Framber Valdez, Dylan Cease, Zac Gallen or Michael King may result in contracts at a lower pay rate patterned after what the Yankees gave Max Fried.  Suarez is not in that echelon given the middle range results with health an ongoing issue.