Over the last few weeks, we have discussed creating a consolidated version of the hitter-analysis work we've been doing here — something that lines up the Mets’ core hitters, the next wave of rookies, and a few realistic free-agent bats in one place. Think of it as a modern player-development “quick scan.” Think of it as "raw material" input to inform upcoming offseason roster re-construction.
Below is my attempt at creating that snapshot.
Each player gets four elements:
Cause → Effect → Corrective Lever → Takeaway
And every takeaway ties directly to real Statcast fingerprints (heat maps, EV, pitch-type performance). Nothing here is guesswork.
I will fast-follow with a deeper Statcast table to augment this post.
METS SUPERSTARS
Juan Soto — Discipline-Driven Power Machine
Cause: Elite pitch recognition and a long decision window built on stable lower-body mechanics.
Effect: Year after year, his OBP, contact quality, and zone control remain the most stable in baseball, with almost no cold zones.
Corrective Lever: Maintain biomechanical and timing efficiency. Soto’s development path is about preservation, not correction.
Takeaway: Preserve the machine.
Francisco Lindor — Controlled Flow / Cognitive Mastery
Cause: Lindor’s swing architecture is built on elite posture, pitch recognition, and controlled rotation, but his attack angle can drift subtly — often tied to small changes in hand position or front-side posture.
Effect: His hot/cold streak cycles are almost entirely attack-angle driven. When the angle stays tight, he generates consistent lift and line-drive authority. When it drifts, his hard-hit quality dips and the cold spells look worse than his true talent level.
Corrective Lever: Reinforce a stable, repeatable attack-angle pattern to convert elite decision-making into steadier slug and reduce streak volatility.
Takeaway: Stabilize the attack angle.
DEVELOPING METS HITTERS
Francisco Álvarez — Raw Force, Sequencing Required
Cause: Álvarez generates MLB-level power almost entirely from his upper body, with inconsistent lower-half engagement and irregular pelvis–torso–hand sequencing.
Effect: When the upper body “goes first,” his adjustability disappears, his path stiffens, and exploitable zones widen. His streak cycles correlate directly to sequencing: when the lower half drives, he looks like an All-Star; when it doesn’t, everything becomes effort-based and volatile.
Corrective Lever: Repattern full-body sequencing so force flows from the ground up, not shoulder down — turning raw power into efficient, repeatable contact.
Takeaway: Learn to sequence.
Brett Baty — Emerging Flow, Timing Variability
Cause: A variable hand load and inconsistent timing rhythm disrupt predictable barrel entry.
Effect: Launch-angle and exit-velocity consistency fluctuate, especially against high-end velocity where timing windows shrink.
Corrective Lever: Stabilize hand load and rhythm continuity; Baty needs timing integrity more than mechanical overhaul.
Takeaway: Find your rhythm.
Mark Vientos — Compact Rotational Power
Cause: Good mechanical efficiency but limited spin and vertical-zone recognition.
Effect: Hot/cold cycles form around predictable holes — up-and-away and early-count breaking balls — despite a strong underlying swing.
Corrective Lever: Improve spin identification and high-zone adjustability to unlock stable 25–30 HR output.
Takeaway: Learn to see spin.
BIG FREE-AGENT BATS
Kyle Tucker — Balanced Force–Flow / All-Field Power
Cause: Smooth sequencing with minor inside-plane timing drift and occasional issues vs left-handed spin.
Effect: His floor is incredibly high, but the MVP ceiling appears only when he controls the inner-third plane with authority.
Corrective Lever: Earlier barrel launch vs LHP and improved inside lift.
Takeaway: Refine the inner plane.
Cody Bellinger — Whip-Based Elastic Athlete
Cause: Natural elasticity produces whip and adjustability, but posture breaks can cause bat-path volatility.
Effect: His performance bandwidth is one of the widest in baseball — MVP peaks followed by timing-collapse valleys.
Corrective Lever: Maintain posture and neutralize bat path to avoid steep collapses.
Takeaway: Control the whip.
Alex Bregman — Precision Sequencer / Horizontal-Plane Master
Cause: Reduced hip–shoulder separation and later connection timing have softened his pull-side authority.
Effect: Hard-hit and impact-quality trends have dipped even as his plate discipline remains elite.
Corrective Lever: Restore early connection and separation to recover signature impact contact.
Takeaway: Reconnect early.
Fernando Tatis Jr. — Elastic Explosive Athlete / Timing-Driven Power
Cause:
Hyper-athletic, elastic swing with deep coil and big movement patterns that create huge power but higher timing variability.
Effect:
Streak cycles correlate directly to internal timing sync. When synced, he looks like an MVP. When timing drifts, he expands the zone, whiffs more on high fastballs and back-foot sliders, and his barrel arrives late.
Corrective Lever:
Stabilize load-to-launch timing and reduce early-hand variability to keep the explosive engine in phase more consistently.
Takeaway:
Harness the chaos.
Pete Alonso — Optimized Force / Power Specialist
Cause: Alonso’s immense point-of-contact force is elite, but his swing shape can get disrupted by high fastballs and low sweepers, creating competing attack planes he struggles to reconcile.
Effect: His streak cycles are defined by how well he controls the top and bottom of the zone. When he covers the high fastball and avoids chasing the low sweeper, he looks like the most dangerous power bat in baseball. When he loses those planes, pitchers feast and streakiness spikes.
Corrective Lever: Improve high-zone adjustability and low-breaker coverage to stabilize 40-HR production and shrink the cold spells.
Takeaway: Win the high zone.
UPCOMING METS ROOKIES TO WATCH
Jett Williams — Compact Flow-Mover / Approach Savant
Cause: Elite discipline and adjustability paired with modest rotational force and limited exit-velocity ceiling.
Effect: A high-OBP foundation with contact quality that lags behind his decision-making engine.
Corrective Lever: Add rotational force while preserving elite swing decisions.
Takeaway: Add real impact.
Carson Benge — Rotational Athlete with MLB Traits
Cause: Strong lower-half mechanics and real bat speed, but inconsistent advanced offspeed recognition.
Effect: Tools outpace game-readiness — MLB-caliber flashes mixed with pitch-processing inconsistencies.
Corrective Lever: Improve offspeed recognition and inside-out plane stability to unlock 20–25 HR potential.
Takeaway: Master the offspeed.
What’s Coming Next
As a fast-follow to build on this, I’ll post a compact Statcast evidence table linking every takeaway directly to observable metrics.
And next Wednesday we shift from individual hitters to something much bigger: how superstar prototypes shape organizational identity, development pathways, and long-term competitiveness.
Stay tuned.
19 comments:
Vientos
I wish Mets World would stop writing about this guy until he consistently does something consistent
Benge
Put him in center on OD ST and let's see what we got
Baty
Consistently needed in both D and O
Tatis
Trade the whole team for him
Morning Mack. Couldn't agree with you more.
On Vientos, you're spot on. His numbers last year and poor defense don't bode well for 1B.
On Benge, warming to the idea of starting him n CF on opening day. But isn't Taylor a much better defensive player right now? And if you start Benge, to me Taylor goes back to 4th OF.
How about Soto LF, Taylor CF, Benge RF (his best position)
On Tatis, would you give up Benge for him?
Imagine this if we got him. Second half 2026/2027
1. Williams or Ewing OF
2. Soto LF/DH
3. Tatis RF
4. Alonso 1B/DH (if back
5. Lindor SS
Best 1-5 in baseball. A man can dream.
If we don't have to give up Benge, then imagine him batting 6th.
Thank you for not just covering the more important Mets but other names of interest. I am sure these adjustments that you reference are difficult to achieve, otherwise everyone would do it. But like you wrote in a previous article, it is hard for a round bat to solidly strike a spherical odject.
And not to make you do any extra work, but how could we compare Soto to Judge, Guerrero, Witt and Ohtani?
On it! Can follow Wednesday’s post - the perfect transitional piece.
On Vientos, your takeaway is: Takeaway: Learn to see spin.
As Gus said, easier said than done. My own stat analysis showed MV swung at far too few first pitches. Then, at 2 strikes, his failure “to see spin” came into play far too many times, as 2 strikes is not his friend at all.
A whopping 54% of his at bats ended on some sort of 2 strike count. He hit an absurd .133/.206/.226 in those 248 PAs.
Swing, man, swing.
I agree with you Tom on Vientos, but his confidence is so shaky. When he’s going good, he is hunting first pitches m. When he isn’t, it shows. The problem with the Mets organization for years is that they never allow their players consistent playing time. Whenever a young player starts rolling, we need to feed a veteran. I still can’t get over that STUPID Mullins trade and what it did to the mojo of the lineup. However, it isn’t to blame for pitchers that shit the bed. Why was Peterson allowed to keep starting games? I feel Mendoza’s too weak of a personality to truly stand up to veterans or players that aren’t performing.
Does not have the mental acuity to succeed in this game
The main reason Tom’s swing early really matters for vientos: specifically because he cannot recognize the breaking pitches & is at a bigger 2-strike disadvantage than someone how has better pitch recognition (Soto) so pitchers have a much bigger advantage against vientos either 2 strikes. The swing early approach is less impactful if the hitter has strong pitch recognition skills.
I wish he would do something consistent so Mets world can stop writing about this guy.
How quickly we become distracted. Great piece of work RVH! Keep it coming!
Thanks Paul!
VERY helpful and insightful RVH -- as always. Couple of points. Impact conditions are everything. Work backwards from impact by focusing on the elements of impact: 1.where in swing contact is made, 2. quality of contact. 3.path. 4. speed. Then the next thing is what are the controls for each of these, i.e. what has the greatest impact on each (the direct causes). Then features of each players movement pattern responsible (cause) of that direct cause or causes). Always keeping in mind that the overall improvement will depend on several factors: 1. how one recruits energy from the ground 2: loading pattern: 3: how one transfers energy (sequencing); 4. pitch recognition, discipline; decision making and approach. (where the cognitive meets the biomechanical).
I would add that sequencing is much more nuanced in each of these; two examples: 1. X factor in loading. Most people, including instructors, are committed to the mistaken idea that increased power comes from increasing the X factor ( the difference between the rotation of the hips and rotation of the shoulders in the set position before their unwinding in the swing) as the player loads into his trail side as the pitcher gets into his delivery motion. X factor does contribute to power, but it is not maximized at the 'ready or top of the backswing loading phase'. And that is because loading does not end then. Loading is completed during the actual sequencing or unwinding phase that is better understood as the transition phase. Many are under a misconception of when loading ends and unloading begins. The most important part of the loading (that leads to the greatest marginal increment in power) occurs in the transition to the swinging phase. Keeping the shoulders back while the pelvis starts its rotation is the key as that increases the stretch and is responsible for we see as almost a whipping action: the shoulders, arms unit fly through the zone and appears to do so effortlessly.
The less separation between pelvis and shoulders overall and especially in this initial transition phase, the greater the reliance on arm speed generated independently rather than through transferred an loaded energy.
Second example is even more important: it is not just the sequence of loading and unloading energy; it is the manner in which the body works to do that: (same with throwing/pitching) in principle one can have the sequence correct: shift pressure forward, rotate pelvis open, then rotate shoulders/arms structure, and do so in an incredibly inefficient way (even if the timing is exactly right). And that is because one can create the rotation in different ways, some of which are far better than others. focus on rotation of the pelvis as that is most illuminating. Visually it may be very hard to see the difference, but one can open up by directly rotating the lead knee, fema and pelvis around (for a RH hitter) to the third base side, say, and then stop the rotation and the shoulders start to unwind next (of course there is overlap in the timing of the stopping and starting). In any case, this is the popular way of doing it because it is how most people would respond to a directive to 'open up.' But it is not what you want to do. In fact what you want to do is the opposite. Instead of rotating the legs/hips externally (away from the center of your stance or your spine) you want to create torque by using the ground by internally rotating your fema and upper leg muscles (towards the center) so that the pressure into the ground drives the hip in the oppositie direction: feet and legs are like a brace internally rotated that actually results in the rotation. This means you are driving the energy into a strong and braced front side that rotates as a result of torquing the ground. And so on.
The main point is that what RVH points out beautifully is what the data shows about each hitter he covers strengths and weaknesses, but data does not show us how to make the changes called for. And that is the key. It's great to know what needs working on, and, as someone who looks at data all the time when coaching, I can say that for most aspects of movement, data typically does two things: it confirms what someone with trained eyes can see and almost anyone with hearing can hear in the ballpark or on the playground, and it can help organize ones thinking and identify specific things to work on. Occasionally it throws up a surprise or two. But what it never does is show you how to make changes. And that is why I worry, because the natural first move is simply for a coach to move the hitter into a different position -- put them where the data tells them the person should be. But, as I said before, this is merely chasing pictures and positions. The swing is a motion and you have to understand the motion, not the positions a good motion will travel through. You are teaching movement skills. People learn them differently; and your job is to make their learning sticky.
let me give a visual of increasing the X factor in the transition. At the point in the transition and swing I am talking about the hips are about 10* open and the sternum is pointing a good 10* to the right of center. That means that if at the top of the swing while the right leg is loading the hips are say 45* rotated and the shoulders 90* (so an X factor of 45*), there is at the point I am referring to a significantly greater difference between the two. Additionally, the arms are thrown off the turning chest/shoulder/ structure adding to their speed. Sorry for the technical details, but once you know it you can see the difference with the naked eye.
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