ANGRY MIKE: 2025 METS PROSPECT REPORT: A.J. EWING

ANGRY MIKE 

2025 OVERVIEW

Despite a record number of Mets prospects having breakout seasons in 2025, nobody created more buzz than A.J. Ewing to start the season, putting up video-game numbers right out of the gate. Ewing returned to St. Lucie to begin 2025, but quickly forced a promotion to Brooklyn, after posting an absurd .400 batting average and .506 OBP thru his first 18 games. High-A pitching didn’t slow Ewing down either, posting a .368 batting average & .440 OBP in his first month. If the hits and OBP don’t impress you, Ewing also recorded a ridiculous 50 stolen bases (56 attempts) thru his first 68 games of the 2025 season. Ewing’s approach highlighted getting on-base, slashing line drives all over the field. The only reason he didn’t rocket up Top 100 Rankings was because he simply didn’t produce the homers those lists are obsessed over, but his average exit velocity of 89 mph and maximum exit velocity of 112 mph, suggest there is plenty of untapped power potential that can be unlocked in the future. 

Ewing’s 2025 season was one of the most consistent seasons ever produced by a Mets farmhand, leading all Mets prospects in batting average (.315), OBP (.401), and stolen bases (70), triples (10). Ewing’s 2025 season is an excellent example of why the Mets focus on challenging certain prospects early in their professional, hoping to accelerate their development as they face more advanced levels of competition. Ewing was a 4th round pick and like previously drafted high-profile HS PREP prospects, Ewing was aggressively assigned to full-season St. Lucie for his first professional season. Although Ewing struggled to put up numbers that jump off the page, it’s important to note that he more than held his own, finishing his first professional season with a respectable .233 batting average and an above average .361 OBP. Ewing also popped 10 homers, had an elite 17% BB-Rate, but only had 13 stolen bases for the entire 2024 season. During the 2025 season, Ewing recorded 12 or more stolen bases in 4 different months, clocking 70 grade run times to 1st base, and easily solidifying himself as one of the fastest players in the organization.   

Regardless of what his HR total was for 2025 of his career total, Ewing exhibits legit 5-tool high-impact talent , and is one of the most electric athletes in the system. Ewing is described as an “athletic freak”, testing off the charts in pre-draft workouts, which is why the Mets insisted on paying him 3rd round money, despite being a 4th round pick, similar to what they did with Jacob Reimer the year before. Despite finally slowing down from his “Herculean” pace to start the season, Ewing finished the season strong after his promotion to Binghamton (.339 Batting Average & .371 OBP). Ewing teamed up with Morabito, Reimer, and Suero to help pick up the slack for Binghamton, after multiple top prospects were promoted to Syracuse.

2025 SEASON HIGHLIGHTS 

.400 Batting average & .506 OBP in 18 games at St. Lucie 

.288 Batting average & .387 OBP in 78 games at Brooklyn

.339 Batting average & .371 OBP in 28 games at Binghamton

Maintained above average BB-Rate -> 12% 

2025 K-Rate: (29% in 2024) -> 2025 19% (562 AB) vs. advanced pitching

Doubled his career high in doubles from 13 (2024) -> 26 (2025)

Tripled his career high in triples from 3 (2024) -> 10 (2025)

Increased stolen bases by over 500% -> 13 SB (2024) -> 70 SB (2025)

44 Multi-hit games -> 36% of total 124 GP 

18 -> 3-HIT games also led all Mets Prospects

Posted .291 BA or better -> 5/6 months 

|| (.378 BA) April || (.368 BA) April || (.291 BA) July || 

|| (.314 BA) August || (.306 BA) September ||

Hammered LHP -> (.313 BA & .380 OBP)

Hammered RHP -> (.316 BA & .408 OBP)

Bo Bichette caliber RISP #’s  -> | .347 BA & 47 RBI | < 118 AB >

2026 OUTLOOK 

Most people might not remember but Ewing was the draft pick compensation the Mets received when Jacob DeGrom left as a free agent. Despite having the pressure of that type of association, Ewing has proven he’s another draft steal, playing well above his draft capital and radically improving his prospect profile every season. Ewing is arguably the fastest man in the organization, only Luisangel Acuna or Nick Morabito could beat him in a foot race. He also exhibits some of the best contact skills in the organization, and with a couple mechanical tweaks, has the bat speed and athleticism to eventually develop the potential to generate 15+ homers, without hurting his batting average. It’ll be interesting to see where the Mets have Ewing begin 2026, as he certainly showed he can handle AA pitching and more importantly, exhibited the ability to make in-season adjustments after he cooled off in June. Ewing remains one of the most exciting prospects in the Mets system and arguably the entire minor leagues. Look for him to finally start adding some more loft to his swing for 2026, combined with another off-season adding strength, look for Ewing to unlock some of the power potential we saw in his first professional season. 

Ewing remains one of the most underrated prospects in the minors, pay zero attention to what “Main Street” says, Ewing exudes “star potential” and is another high-energy grinder that perfectly complements the thumper-heavy Queens lineup. 

The “player comp” I like to use for Ewing, is former Indians All-Star, Kenny Lofton. He offers the same type of old-school elite bat-to-bat skills, electric speed, sneaky power, and plus defensive skills all over the outfield. 

I’ve been tracking Ewing’s box scores diligently ever since he was drafted, he remains one of my favorite Mets prospects, and I’m looking forward to seeing him produce a repeat monster performance for the 2026 season.

MACK - POSITION ANALYSIS - OF (Holy, moly)

 

Position Analysis –OF

 

Sit back… this is going to be a long one… 

Nick Morabito, Carson Benge, AJ Ewing – the first three names here are all RED prospects, all starting off in AAA, and all don’t need me to repeat here what has been said about them a septillion times before. They are all destined to hit Queens this season (unless one is packaged for a starter) and MetsWorld will start to spin correctly again.

Ji-Hwan Bae – recent sign-on after the Pirates waived him. Looks like the perfect candidate for late D (ultra-speed here) and pinch running. Excellent AAA stat line last season, so he looks to be a much better alternative with a bat in his hands than that Siri experiment. I’m starting him out in AAA, letting my Queens five-dom be Soto/TBD/Taylor/Young/McNeil.

Matt Rudick – turns 28 in July. LHH. Plays all three OF positions. Spent all of 2024 at AA(8-HR, 41-RBI, .231) , then hurt all of last season (TJS), except for late rehabbing in A+. I have him backing up Tne Three Amigos at AAA and then starting there when the first is either promoted or traded.

Eli Serrano – turns 23 in May. LHH. Plays center, right, and 1B. Had 383-PA for A+ last season (.222) and will graduate in the spring to AA, if for no other reason than they have slots to fill there.

John Bay – “lightning In A Bottle” here will turn 25 in May. RHH. Plays center and right. Undrafted out of Bumfuk, Egypt. Proved the baseball world wrong at A/A+ going 108-PA, 33-K, 16-BB, 4-HR, 23-RBI, .253/.417/,458/.874. Even got hit eight times. I have starting off again at the A+ level, but he should quickly more to AA if early spring proves that last season wasn’t a fluke.

Yohairo Cuevas – 23/years old. Plays RF, LF, 1B. Played for St. Lucie and Brooklyn last season: 378-PA, 81-K, 60-SB, 2-HR, 23-RB1, .252/.392/.726-OPS. Only 121-PA at the A+ level, so he will return there this spring. 6-3 with projectable power. Strong arm. Hustles on every play. I like this guy. Especially his blazing speed on the basepaths. Could be breakout star in 2026. Remember this name.

Diego Mosquera – turns 22 in March. Plays LF, SS, 2B. RHH. Was a Clone for the entire 2025 season: 223-PA, 47-K, 24-BB, 0-HR, 16-RBI, .217/.253-SLG. Two things here… the good news is you have to go to a lot of games to see him strikeout… the bad news is you have to a go to a whole lot more to see him get an XBH. He probably will move on to AA as a utility player.

Yostan Henriquez – 21/years old. Plays CF, RF, 3B. SH. Hit for (mostly) St. Lucie and Brooklyn in 2025: 437-PA, 80-K, 55-BB, 8-HR, 52-BB, .263/.353/.393/.746. A versatile defender. Sneaky pop from both sides. Another kid you are going to hear more about, especially in the age that hitting above .250 makes you a potential superstar. I have him starting off back at the A+ level. Remember this name too.

Randy Guzman – okay… here’s a live one. Turns 21 in April. Plays RF, LF, 1B (!). RHH. Arrived from the DR at the end of 2024 and played last season for the FCL Mets and St. Lucie. Did well at FCL (178-PA, 7-HR, .282), but really hit the peddle at Lucy (105-PA, 21-K, 6-BB, .3-HR, 24-RBI, .333/.381/.604/.985-OPS. That added up to 10-HR, 57-RBI, .302, .898-OPS. Breakout 2025 season. Elite raw power. 90^th percentile exit velo (108.1).Plays solid corner and first. Most improved hitter in the chain. 20-25 HR potential. I’m sending him to Brooklyn, where I would play him a little more on first.

Simon Juan – $1.9mil signing bonus on 1-15-2022. Downhill from there. Turns 21 in July. Plays all three outfield positions. RHH. Made half a splash for the FCL Mets in 2024: 202-PA, 7-HR, 29-RBI, .273… then fell back into the pact last season for St. Lucie: 376-PA, 7-HR, 50-RBI, .222. My thoughts are the potential felt when they shelled out the bonus keeps Juan around. So, off he goes to Brooklyn in 2026 for, probably, his last shot.

Sam Biller – turns 24 in July. Plays all three OF positions                  

5-10      180      LHH   

2025 free agent out of Univ. Connecticut (13-HR, 60-RB1, .978-OPS)

2025:    A-St. Lucie – 21-PA, 9-K, 3-BB, 0-HR, 1-RB1, .235

Biller was a standout outfielder for the UConn Huskies and had an absolute monster 2025 college season! The graduate transfer crushed .296 with 14 doubles, 13 homers, 60 RBI, 23 stolen bases, and led his team with 19 hit-by-pitches across 58 games. He earned Perfect Game National Player of the Week honors after a ridiculous stretch: going 12-for-19 with 4 doubles, 5 homers, and 17 RBI in just a few games. Biller also snagged the NCBWA Dick Howser Trophy National Hitter of the Week after a 4-for-5 game with three dingers and six RBI against Villanova, part of an 11-game hit streak where he racked up 29 RBI and eight homers. On top of the stats, he's a class act—earlier this year, he spearheaded a fundraiser with college baseball players nationwide to rebuild a Little League field in California destroyed by wildfires, raising money for equipment and relief through partnerships with Rawlings and Easton. And get this: in his pro debut season, he already set a career-high with four stolen bases in one game!  Kid's got power, speed, heart, and he's just getting started. I have him opening up again at the A level.

Yunior Amparo – (may have a live one here…).

19/years old.   RHH. Plays CF, 1B, 3B

6-0      170      Santo Domingo, DR

2025:  2-DSL teams – 173-PA, 24-K, 26-BB, 4-HR, .312/.426/.903-OPS

Showing excellent plate discipline, speed (above-average runner), and a quick, adaptable bat with fast hands that projects for double-digit homers down the line. One of the standout performers at the DSL All-Star Game, noting his malleable swing, line-drive approach with loft, and strong arm, though he may shift off shortstop eventually. Has scouts buzzing about his offensive gifts profiling anywhere on the diamond. Poised for a stateside jump to the Florida Complex League in 2026.

Edward Lantiqua –

6-1      175      RHH      18/years old

IFA signed 1-15-2024: $950K signing bonus. Drew comparisons to stars like Julio Rodríguez for his athleticism, size (now listed at 6'4", 195 lbs), speed, and projectable power.

2025 – FCL Mets:  194-PA, 29-K, 33-BB, 3-HR, 27-RBI, .288/.433

Professionally last season for DSL Mets/Mets, he absolutely raked. Named DSL Player of the Year. Strong plate discipline  An FCL All-Star.  Scouts love his above-average arm, speed that should stick in center field (or right if needed), and high ceiling as he adds muscle—Baseball America gives him 50+ grades across hit, power, run, field, and arm. Even though St. Lucie is crowded, I still can’t see holding back this potential RED prospect.

Jeffry Rosa – 21/years old  RF/LF/CF  RHH  6-1  190

IFA signed 1-15-2022  $100,000 signing bonus

2025:  FCL Mets  -  147-PA, 43-K, 10-BB, 4-HR, 10-RB1, .180

Turned heads in 2023 when he hit 15 home runs for the Mets DSL orange team. Turned heads away ever since. Has hit 8 homers combined for two seasons since. 1.069-OPS to .607. Frankly, he’s St, Lucie filler at best.

Haniel German – 19/yrs   6-2   185   RHH   RF/LF/CF

IFA – signed for under $10.1K

2025:  FCL Mets – 145-PA, 51-K 16-BB, 0-HR, 11-RBI, .192

Another Rosa. Me? I repeat him.

Heriberto Rincon – turns 20 in February

6-1    160    RHH    CF/RF/LF   IFA signing bonus $150K

2025 – Mets DSL-O:  206-PA, 30-K, 19-BB, 34-SB, .314/.363/.438/.821

Frankly, you couldn’t ask for a more well-rounded season from Herby. The only downside I see here is he’s too old to be playing down there. Elite speed. 70-grade run tool. Tied DSL lead in steals in 2025. 30+ SB and 15+ XBH. FanGraphs calls him one of the toolsiest position players in the Mets' DSL groups. Scouts note gap power, hard contact (e.g., 101-110 mph exit velos on highlights), and clutch hits like game-winning doubles or triples. Primarily a centerfielder with range and arm strength; projects as a plus defender. Coming stateside to an FCL team near you.

Adolfo Miranda – 19 years old

RHH   6-2   190   RF/LF/CF   IFA signed – bonus in $10-300K range).

2025:  DSL-Mets-O – 187-PA, 32-K, 10-BB, 5-HR, .290/.353/.473/.826

Toosly with room to add strength. Scouts highlight his plus raw power potential (especially to the pull side) and above-average speed, making him a classic "high-ceiling" corner or center field prospect who could develop into a 20+ homer guy with good defense. Another James Kang/IFA Director find. He will definitely come stateside (if he’s not already here in the lab) and will open for the FCL Mets net season.

Overall – Boy, the outfield looks good right now. You have solid upper-level talent, mixed in with six mid-lower BLUE prospects. Easily can survive a trade or two.Now all they to do is find someone to play left until June.

Rating:  A+

Paul Articulates – Marcus Semien, the newest Met

The trade last week of Brandon Nimmo plus $5M for Marcus Semien surprised many of us throughout the Mets’ nation.  It has taken a while to absorb what it all means as the Mets sent one of their long-standing fan favorites and a major contributor to the American league for a gold glove second baseman.

As soon as it happened, I put a piece together “Bran-done?!” to recognize Brandon Nimmo and his accomplishments as a Met.  I think a lot of people felt that way – sentimental about a guy that did so much for the team over the years.  But in the business of baseball, sentiment takes a back seat.  Let’s look objectively at who Marcus Semien is and what it does for the New York Mets.

Marcus Semien has had a very successful career, coming up with the Chicago White Sox in 2013 just two years after being selected in the sixth round of the 2011 draft (what a steal!).  He is a defense first player, having played all infield positions except 1B and winning two gold gloves (one in 2021 with Toronto and one last year with Texas).  Both his Outs Above Average and Defensive Runs Saved metrics for a typical year would place him among the top Mets.  He has been on three all-star teams (2021, 2023, and 2024) and has also won two Silver Slugger awards (2021, 2023).  

Besides the professional accolades, Marcus Semien has also excelled as a person – three times representing the Rangers for the MLB Heart and Hustle Award, with one of those years (2023) being the MLB Players Association winner.  He was also MLB players choice man of the year in 2021 and 2023.  

Semien adds a right-handed bat to a Mets lineup that has been dominated by lefties the last few years.  This adds balance and his infield versatility gives Carlos Mendoza options on how to arrange the lineup against a particular pitching challenge.  Statistically, he has a solid but not spectacular career OPS of .756 and a 49.2 career WAR.  His career slash line is .253/.321/.435 but he was down from those numbers in the last two seasons with Texas.  Last year he only played 127 games due to a left foot fracture.  He has not had much of an injury history, so hopefully he will remain healthy for the Mets.

Semien will be a great add to the Mets clubhouse.  Besides the humanitarian awards mentioned above, former teammates describe him as having an elite work ethic and someone who demonstrates field leadership through example.  This fits very well with Francisco Lindor’s style so there is an opportunity for them to become a very dynamic combination in the middle infield.

The data shows that this trade should be a positive for the Mets.  They gain defensive capability that is consistent with their run prevention goal, they get more lineup balance with a solid right-handed bat, and they get clubhouse/field leadership by example from a player who wants to win.  

The risk in this acquisition is that Semien has already peaked for his career and is on the downslope.  Last year he batted only .230, and while that may be dismissed due to the foot injury, his 2024 season was not much better with a .237/.308/.478 line.  He will be 35 years old this season, so his physical durability is something to watch.

I am looking forward to seeing an improved infield in 2026, with the dynamic combination up the middle and an improved Brett Baty focused on his third base play.  The first base position will be unresolved for at least a month but if the floor is Pete’s defense, I’ll take it.

RVH — The Organizational Superstar Blueprint:

 

How Generational Players Transform Entire Baseball Franchises**

Baseball organizations don’t just build rosters — they build identities. Front offices talk constantly about culture, development, and sustainability, but they rarely articulate the deeper truth:

Successful modern front offices are beginning to leverage prototype players as core inputs into their player-development systems.
When you think of players as organizational assets, this emerging philosophy aligns perfectly with the Steve Cohen / David Stearns blueprint — a model inspired by hedge-fund logic, where capital is deployed efficiently to generate compounding long-term returns.

These players are not just stars.
Not just producers.
They are Prototypes — singular offensive or defensive engines that define what an organization values, teaches, invests in, and replicates across every layer of the system.

A prototype becomes the reference model for how you:

• scout

• draft

• coach

• structure analytics

• design your farm system

• build offensive and defensive approaches

• develop decision-making

• define your competitive identity

Every elite organization has one.
And they shape everything downstream.

The Dodgers built theirs around Ohtani (and Betts/Freeman before him).
The Yankees built theirs around Judge.
The Royals around Bobby Witt Jr.
The Braves around Acuña.
The Padres around Tatis Jr.
The Jays around Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

And the Mets — finally — have theirs: Juan Soto.

Soto has been a Met for a full season. The team failed to win — but that failure actually highlights a critical truth modern baseball is only now beginning to understand:

Superstars are not paid astronomical contracts solely for performance or marketing value.

They are paid because one generational player can materially accelerate the quality and quantity of an entire organization’s player-development output.

A prototype produces WAR.
But the hidden ROI is that they create organizational leverage.

This is the core of the Cohen/Stearns philosophy:
Spend big on the right established talent, build the internal systems to multiply that investment, and compound value across the entire roster over time.

---

Prototype Players Are Not Just Great — They Are Inputs into Advanced Development Systems

A prototype hitter is more than their stat line.
They are a complete offensive development philosophy wrapped inside one athlete — a live blueprint of:

• biomechanics

• sequencing

• pitch recognition

• timing models

• plate-discipline architecture

• contact-quality patterns

• risk tolerance

• zone control

• and the stabilizing halo they create around everyone else

Once you understand the prototype, you understand the organizational identity that should form around them.

This is why the Mets’ new alignment matters so much.

For the first time in decades, ownership, baseball operations, analytics, scouting, and development are unified around a single objective:

Build a sustainable winning machine by increasing the quality of player assets through a modern, data-driven, capital-efficient development ecosystem.

Cohen provides the capital.
Stearns provides the architecture.
Soto provides the prototype.

Together, they form the foundation of a system capable of compounding value over time.

---

The Hidden Value: How Prototypes Transfer Their Operating System to an Entire Organization

A franchise investing in a generational prototype isn’t just paying for WAR or marketability.
That’s the surface-level ROI.

The real value — the one that actually justifies these contracts — is that the organization gains access to the player’s operating system.

A prototype doesn’t just hit.
They reveal:

• how they see pitches

• how they sequence

• how they train

• how they build timing

• how they self-correct mid-season

• how they prepare mentally

• how they manage count leverage

• how they simplify the game under pressure

When player development, coaches, analysts, and young hitters learn these internal processes, the superstar becomes an organizational input, not just an output.

This is where exponential leverage appears.

If even 15–20% of a superstar’s operating system can be embedded into the farm, everything accelerates:

• Prospects refine faster

• Swing decisions improve

• Mechanics become more efficient

• Depth improves

• Variance decreases

• Analytics integrates cleanly with coaching

• More players reach their ceiling

• Salary capital gains efficiency across the roster

This is classic hedge-fund logic applied to baseball:
turn one high-value asset into a multiplier across the entire portfolio.

That’s how you sustain winning without needing to spend $300M in free agency every winter.

This is the Cohen/Stearns model — and Soto is the perfect player to anchor it.

---

The Mets’ Prototype: Juan Soto

Juan Soto isn’t just the Mets’ best hitter.
He is their organizational blueprint.

What Soto represents:

• the cleanest decision engine in MLB

• elite OBP and contact-quality stability

• minimal unnecessary movement

• maximum repeatability

• a low-variance offensive floor

• a swing and approach that age exceptionally well

Even in a season when the Mets failed to win, his value extends far beyond the standings.

Soto is a living model for how to build hitters.

Teams aligned around Soto tend to adopt:

• selective aggression

• shadow-zone mastery

• OBP supremacy

• controlled, repeatable mechanics

• long-AB pressure

• complementary hitters who punish the mistakes Soto refuses to chase

• development systems centered on clarity, timing, and decision quality

Soto doesn’t just hit.
He teaches you how to create hitters, how to develop assets, and how to build a system that compounds value over time.

This is the opportunity in front of the Mets — and why, for the first time in decades, the franchise is aligned to build a sustainable winning machine.

MACK - MY WEDNESDAY OBSERVATIONS - MACK'S PROSPECT #5 - RHSP WILL WATSON - Dove Camp Notes, Robert Suarez, Joe Ryan, Juan Soto, A.J. Ewing, Jose Castillo, Sean Manaea

 

I promised all of you that, as soon as the season ended, I would breakout and post my current Top 30 prospects.

This is performance based, not players that came to the Mets full of promise but have only produced butterscotch pudding. A perfect example of a player that didn’t make this list is catcher Ronald Hernandez. I still like the guy, but based on what he did in 2025, I don’t like him “top 30 guy”.

Nolan McLean, Brandon Sproat, and Jonah Tong _(maybe) are not on this list. They have graduated.

I will post them in each of my weekly Observations and In Focus posts… one player at a time… beginning with #30.

Today, we move to #5:

5.     RHSP Will Watson

23/years old    6-1    180    7^th rd. 2024 – USC

2025 – A/A+/AA:  28-G, 23-ST, 3-9, 2.60, 1.20, 121.1-IP, 142-K, 58-BB

Will Watson is widely regarded as one of their breakout prospects in 2025.

He signed for $281,300, just under slot value.

Prior to USC, Watson attended California Lutheran University and San Joaquin Delta College, where he was drafted in the 20th round by the Seattle Mariners in 2023 but opted to return to school.

Watson's journey to pro ball included a solid college season at USC in 2024, where he appeared in 16 games (9 starts), posting a 3.93 ERA over 50.1 innings with 46 strikeouts, 27 walks, and a 1.411 WHIP.

Watson profiles primarily as a pitcher with starter potential but could transition to relief if command issues persist. He's praised for his competitiveness, athleticism, and ability to miss bats,

2025 Performance and Rise

Watson's first full professional season in 2025 has been a revelation, earning him spots on Mets top-prospect lists. He began at Single-A St. Lucie, where he dominated with a sub-3.00 ERA and high strikeout totals, including a career-high 7 Ks in 4.1 hitless innings in his debut on April 9.

Promoted to High-A Brooklyn in June, he continued excelling (e.g., 8 Ks in 4.2 scoreless innings on June 13), then reached Double-A Binghamton by late summer.

Scouts call him a "wildcard" arm with quick-rising potential, though his fringe-average control (walks remain a hurdle) could cap him as a mid-rotation starter or high-leverage reliever.

ETA to MLB: 2027, but aggressive promotions suggest 2026 is possible.

Pitch Repertoire

Watson's arsenal is deep and versatile, featuring a five-pitch mix that plays well against both lefties and righties. He's experienced a velocity spike in pro ball (up 2-3 mph across the board), crediting Mets development for better extension and spin. He throws from a low-three-quarters slot with a leg kick and long arm action, adding deception. His fastball-centric approach keeps hitters off-balance, and he's noted that opponents "haven't been comfortable" facing it.

Four-Seam Fastball

94-97 mph (avg. 95)

Rise/run profile with elite spin (up to 2,300 RPM); explosive life up in the zone for whiffs. Primary pitch (50-60% usage).

Plus grade; generates swing-and-miss (often his best offering). Peaks at 97 mph.

Slider

84-87 mph (mid-80s avg.)

Sharp, late break with two-plane movement; pairs well with fastball for righties.

Above-average; key for stealing strikes and Ks (recently "working really well"). 20-25% usage.

Cutter

88-91 mph (upper-80s avg.)

New addition in 2025; hard, late cut to tunnel with fastball/slider.

Fringe-average but improving; used as bridge pitch (10-15% usage). "Still finding the right spots," per Watson.

Changeup

87-90 mph (upper-80s avg.)

Tailing action with arm-side fade; firm but flashes plus potential vs. lefties.

Above-average; complements fastball for reverse splits. 10-15% usage.

Curveball

78-82 mph

Deeper, 12-6 break as change-of-pace; less used but adds depth.

Average; situational for early counts or stealing strikes. <10% usage.

Strengths: High-spin fastball and slider combo drives his 25-30% K-rate; athletic delivery aids repeatability. Areas for growth: Command (4+ BB/9) to unlock full potential—refining this could elevate all pitches to plus. Watson's meteoric 2025 rise—from seventh-rounder to Double-A playoff starter—marks him as a Mets system bonus. With the organization's pitching lab, he could emerge as a dark-horse rotation piece by 2027. 

Mack Ade macksmets@gmail.com

Highlights from last Ernest Dove podcast:

1. 100% healthy Zach Thornton

2. Also in pitching camp, R.J. Gordon, Jack Wenninger, Ryan Lambert, and Brandon Girton

3. Small, under 20 pitchers select camp.

4. Position players concentrated on strengthening. Positive updates on Boston Baro, Eli Serrano III, Carson Benge, Jacob Reimer, AJ Ewing, and Collin Houck.

5. Camp now in the "dead period ".

6. Re: players that left the AFL early... Brett Banks is 100%, and DeAndre Smith, is also 100% healthy

7. Austin Treosser may be injured. No details.

 

High-leverage relievers still on the board after Ryan Helsley signing

CLICK HERE

Robert Suarez, who quietly put together is one of the most efficient seasons in the league for the Padres. The 34-year-old right-hander logged 40 saves with a 2.97 ERA and a 0.90 WHIP, giving him the kind of recent track record teams crave in the ninth inning.

 

Joe Ryan

https://fansided.com/mlb/mlb/ranking-joe-ryan-trade-destinations-from-favorites-to-dark-horses

New York Mets

The New York Mets unearthed an ace in Nolan McLean, but the rest of the rotation is in shambles. Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat aren't ready. Kodai Senga is too unreliable. Sean Manaea took a huge step back in 2025. Ryan provides instant stability and production at New York's weakest position. The Mets' offense can mash as well as any group in MLB, but unless New York can keep opposing lineups in check, the wins won't come frequently enough in 2026.

Eric Cross                       @EricCrossMLB

Only two players in MLB history met all of the below thresholds through their Age 26 season...

200+ Home Runs

650+ RBI

750+ Runs Scored

75+ Stolen Bases

.400+ OBP

Juan Soto and Mickey Mantle.

 

Ben Yoel                  @Ben_Yoel

A.J. Ewing

Mets biggest prospect rise in 2025. He could be the CF of the future.

He stole 70 bases this year.

 

Mack – MM

LHRP Jose Castillo, who was non-tendered by the Mets in November, has signed with Japan's NPB with the Chiba Lotte Marines. Castillo pitched for four teams in 2025… the Mets, Mariners, Diamondbacks, and Orioles.

32-IP    3.94-ERA

 

Ugly Baseball Contracts

CLICK HERE

Sean Manaea, New York Mets: Manaea took a huge step backward with his 5.64 ERA last season after dealing with a stubborn oblique injury. He’s due $50 million over the final two years of his contract, though more than $14 million of that is deferred. It’s still a high AAV for a pitcher who is soon to be 34 and has only once posted a 3-fWAR season.

Reese Kaplan -- Who's Really the 2026 Closer for the Mets?

With the Winter Meetings slated to begin next week there has already been a bit of personnel activity around the league.  The latest one found the Baltimore Orioles inking Mets disaster Ryan Helsley to a two-year $28 million deal.  Apparently the folks hoping to continue contending are expecting that Helsley’s track record prior to the Mets and his late September strong finish after the horrific tenure with the Mets was a hiccup in an otherwise commendable and dominant career. 

With the big righthander off the board it now makes the price tags on the next tier of relievers escalate as fewer All Star level closers are now available to the highest bidder.  Heading the list, of course, is Edwin Diaz who is looking for a five year deal in the neighborhood of $22 million per season which would amount to a $110 million contract for a guy during his age 32 through 37 career years.  Obviously the Mets would like to have him return but at that rate it might be necessary to embrace an alternative as a complementary piece or Closer Plan B.  

Some were caught by surprise when word came out on Monday that the club indeed executed a reunion between David Stearns and his former Brewers closer Devin Williams.  After his rugged 2025 season in the Bronx most people have written him off already without considering what he did prior to his departure to Yankee Stadium.  As a refresher, during his career which started in 2019 he was absolutely unhittable.  For the period of 2019 through 2024 he went 27-10 with 68 saves that included 375 strikeouts in 235 innings pitched.  His ERA was a sparkling 1.83.  You’re talking Diaz level dominance.  Last year he escalated to 4-6 with a 4.79 ERA.  The only positive was his 90 Ks in 62 IP.  

How this new contract impacts the Mets is still the great unknown.  On the one hand you have a lethal level closer from Milwaukee who regularly made All Star teams while playing there.  His first foray into New York media coverage and pressure went about as well as Ryan Helsley's tenure across town.  However, the price paid ($15 million per season for three years) is in this day and age fairly modest for someone with a career ERA of 2.45 AFTER his horrific Yankees turn in 2025.

The politically correct aspect of this conjecture is that Williams has stated he is content to be the 8th inning guy and turn the ball over to Edwin Diaz for the 9th if by some increasingly unlikely happenstance that Sugar will make his way into the home team lockers at Citifield once again.  If that indeed happened then you can certainly tip your cap to David Stearns about run prevention if you're willing to write off the past year as a blip rather than a trend.  The trend was awesome before that.  

However, in what baseball business ledger does it suggest you pay approximately $22 million for Diaz, $15 million for Williams, $11 million for A.J. Minter, approximately $8 million for Brooks Raley and more money for the balance of the pen?  That means you're allocating about $60 million for relief pitching without considering how you're going to address the other obvious needs in the starting rotation, outfield, first base and the bench (if indeed you cast Baty as a starting caliber third baseman).   

Only Yankees fans would deride the decision to secure Williams for the pen.  If he's slated to become the primary closer with the Diaz $22 million annual salary used elsewhere, that's livable although some would say a step down.  Truth be told during the Diaz Mets reign he's managed a highly respectable 2.93 ERA but it reminds you that there were some years he was not quite the automatic save he was in other years (and is nearly a half a run worse than Williams).  Personally, I could live with Williams as the closer if the gap to reacquire Diaz become insurmountable.